Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Angels - Signed Hillenbrand

Los Angeles Angels - Signed 1B Shea Hillenbrand to a 1-year contract.

A wonderful $6.5 million with a vesting option for 2008.  If you ignore that Hillenbrand can’t field at 3B, can’t hit well enough to be a 1B, is a worse hitter than the Yankees got for $50,000 in the Rule 5 draft, he’s not particularly skilled at any aspect of the hitting, he isn’t fast, he will make $6.5 million, the Angels have other 1B options, he doesn’t like gay people, he doesn’t seem to like many straight people, and seems to think he’s a star player, and he spent half the season being unable to hit NL pitchers, this is a really good signing.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Shea Hillenbrand
———————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Projection   522 65 143 29 1 13 63 23 105   2 .274 .327 .408
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  555 83 165 35 2 18 86 30 100   3 .297 .357 .465
Pes. (15%)  362 40   93 18 0   7 35 12 82   0 .257 .296 .365
———————————————————————————————————
Top Comps: Willie Montanez, Chris Chambliss

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:16 AM | 64 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. 1k5v3L Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:52 AM (#2269114)
Shea looks like a ballplayer.
   2. Astro-Bonilla Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:56 AM (#2269153)
When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing? My guess is a walrus dancing to a monkey playing the jug here.
   3. Margo Adams FC Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:09 AM (#2269163)
The Angels are a sinking ship.
   4.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:24 AM (#2269174)
ZiPS doesn't projects GiDP's?
   5.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:27 AM (#2269177)
Is this the best contract any player who was DFA'd in the previous season has ever gotten?
   6. NTNgod Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:30 AM (#2269182)
Is this the best contract any player who was DFA'd in the previous season has ever gotten?

When Boras gets Zito signed somewhere, and starts shopping Jeff Weaver around to the Zito losers, I suspect he'll get a much more lucrative deal than Hillenbrand's 1/$6.5.
   7. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:33 AM (#2269185)
Higher projected batting average than Kotchman (268/329/409) and McPherson (263/323/503)! Good thing he'll be taking PAs away from them! Yay Angels!

Any guesses on their opening day lineup?
   8.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:34 AM (#2269186)
That's a sad thought.
   9. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:43 AM (#2269229)
This totally seals the deal. The Angels are now favorites -- not just in the West, not just in the AL, not even for the World Series: They will emerge victorious from the Universal Playoffs, to be held on the planet Xylon-23 near Betelgeuse. It's guaranteed. I'm calling it: Angels 4, Zipstorn Qwglitzists 1.

Buy tickets now to ride in the Angels' frictionless space orb.
   10. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: December 27, 2006 at 08:47 AM (#2269231)
So he's worse than Quinlan, McPherson and Izturis as 3B options and those 3 plus Kotchman as 1B/DH options? Wow.
   11. faketeams Posted: December 27, 2006 at 01:20 PM (#2269251)
At least Stoneman still has all his prospects. Now the Angels can be involved in all sorts of unfruitful trade rumors.
   12. karlmagnus Posted: December 27, 2006 at 01:24 PM (#2269253)
BTFers have always hated Shea; I've liked him since he dissed Theo Epstein so memorably. I think those Zips projections are way low; he's only 31 and has a lifetime 774 OPS including his first lousy season. If he plays regularly, I'd expect him to get .295/.340/.460, which is well worth $6.5mm for a 1 year contract in today's market.
   13. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 27, 2006 at 01:57 PM (#2269270)
BTFers have always hated Shea; I've liked him since he dissed Theo Epstein so memorably.

I think that makes you person #3 on this planet that fits in that category, behind his wife Jessica and his personal sports psychologist, Doug Gardner.
   14. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:11 PM (#2269277)
Well crap, I have to admit, I thought the Angels would have a better offseason than this. They still have all those prospects to trade, but it sure seems like Stoneman is going to sit on his hands. I really feel the A's have dodged a bullet so far. So far, because, man, that's a load of prospects they still have.

And yeah, I'm not sure why calling somebody a faggot makes them admirable. It's not Theo's fault he was born with a natural intelligence that allowed him to see Hillenbrand was not all that and a cupcake. As somebody fortunate to be born wothout such a defect, Shea should have more patience.
   15. Gaylord Perry the Platypus (oi!) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:17 PM (#2269281)
Astro-Bonilla Posted: December 26, 2006 at 11:56 PM (#2269153)

When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing? My guess is a walrus dancing to a monkey playing the jug here.

So Stoneman is played by Zach Braff?
   16. AROM Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:30 PM (#2269284)
They will emerge victorious from the Universal Playoffs, to be held on the planet Xylon-23 near Betelgeuse. It's guaranteed. I'm calling it: Angels 4, Zipstorn Qwglitzists 1.

Wrong on several levels. First, Hillenbrand will lead the Angels to LAST PLACE. He'll hit .280 with 17 homers and knock in 80-90 runs, and Scioscia and Hatcher will go on and on about how much he's added to the lineup and protecting Vlad. He'll also use up more than 600 AB and hit into 30 double plays. And they'll scratch their heads and wonder why they are second to last in runs scored. And then they'll probably think they could do better if only they had more hitters like Shea. Its gonna be a sh**storm of a season.

Second, there is no way the Qwglitzists can beat the Reticulans.
   17. AROM Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:32 PM (#2269285)
The only hope for 2007 is that Hillenbrand pulls a Guillen early on, gets into Scioscia's doghouse and is released early.
   18. AROM Posted: December 27, 2006 at 02:33 PM (#2269286)
Oh, and 2007 will feature something from me that I've never done before in my life. Root for a Red Sox pitcher to get an Angel hitter out. Just wait for the first time the Sox bring Donnelly in to face Hillenbrand.
   19. JPWF13 Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:18 PM (#2269317)
I think those Zips projections are way low; he's only 31 and has a lifetime 774 OPS including his first lousy season. If he plays regularly, I'd expect him to get .295/.340/.460, which is well worth $6.5mm for a 1 year contract in today's market.


Except for half a year in SF, Angel's stadium is the least favorable hitting home park he's played
last four seasons:
.280/.314/.468 (Bos/Ari)
.310/.348/.464 (Arizona)
.291/.343/.449 (Toronto)
.277/.313/.451 (Tor/SF)

He's reached an .800 OPS just once, I think your projection is as unreasonably high as Zips may be low.
My guess is he'll hit midway between the Zips' projection and your's
   20. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:36 PM (#2269325)
Craig Wilson: Still cheaper, better.
   21. Marc Sully's not booin'. He's Youkin'. Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:38 PM (#2269329)
BTFers have always hated Shea; I've liked him since he dissed Theo Epstein so memorably.

Wow.
   22. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 03:49 PM (#2269335)
Is this the best contract any player who was DFA'd in the previous season has ever gotten?

I know he was DFA'd, but they did trade him to SF, so it's not as if they completely gave up on him.
   23. Too Much Coffee Man Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:26 PM (#2269365)
When a signing this bad occurs, I always want to know what was going on inside of the GM who made the deal's head: what possesed them to do such a thing?

It seems to me that GMs value certainty a lot more than people here do. I don't know if Stoneman has access to project systems or not, but if he did, he might conclude that there's a 75% shot that Hillenbrand will put up a .274/.327/.408 line, or said another way that he should be able to do so. If he looks at a McPherson projection, Stoneman reasons that McPherson could put up a .263/.323/.503 line. He has data that tells him Hillenbrand has almost always done that well in the majors, and that McPherson has yet too.

Giving a job to Hillenbrand allows him to check off a line on his off-season punch list. If Hillenbrand goes out and hits .275 with 18 homers and 75 RBI, that looks pretty good, and if the team isn't scoring enough runs, he has to figure out a way during the season to get more production than that.

Handing a job to Kotchman or McPherson again isn't comforting enough to check anything off. It looks like the same hole that was there last year. In his mind, he believes he has every reason to believe that Kotchman or McPherson will fail again. So, at mid-season, not only does he have to go out and find someone better than .275/18/75, he has lost that level of production for half a year.

There's also the PR side of it. I'll bet the papers and talk shows in Anaheim like the move, and if he did nothing but wait for Kotchman and McPherson to perform as they're capable, he'd be roasted.

I'm not saying that this is good reasoning, but I think it addresses the question raised by Astro Bonilla.
   24. Zac Schmitt Posted: December 27, 2006 at 04:42 PM (#2269381)

I think that makes you person #3 on this planet that fits in that category, behind his wife Jessica and his personal sports psychologist, Doug Gardner.


she's his wife and he gets paid by hillenbrand - what's your excuse?

too much coffee man is talking about the "proven commodity" principle: so and so has been there, he knows what it takes, et cetera. and it's a huge, huge reason why many of these signings have occurred.
   25. greenback calls it soccer Posted: December 27, 2006 at 05:12 PM (#2269394)
Second, there is no way the Qwglitzists can beat the Reticulans.

Those two four-armed pitchers for the Reticulans only look good because their AAA affiliate on planet Lovetron played very unfavorably to hitters last year. The effect of ion storms isn't news, or at least it shouldn't be, and I was hoping CHONE would adjust for that.
   26. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 27, 2006 at 11:52 PM (#2269682)
Too Much Coffee Man, post 24:

Great, great analysis of why this stuff occurs. That said, McPherson can hit sort of adequtely against righties, and Stoneman's not stupid, whatever we may think of this signing--so why isn't he finding a lefty masher/ph who can play first base 30-40 games a year?
   27. cardsfanboy Posted: December 28, 2006 at 12:46 AM (#2269712)
so they are paying 16.5 mil to two players who have been dfa'd in recent seasons? man that angels juggernaut looks to be positively frightening(if you are an angel fan)
   28. Honkie Kong Posted: December 28, 2006 at 12:53 AM (#2269713)
so they are paying 16.5 mil to two players who have been dfa'd in recent seasons? man that angels juggernaut looks to be positively frightening(if you are an angel fan)

Well, they still have the younger spawn of Arachne, the mighty trident wheeling bloodsucker with back problems, and ofcourse the Human Balloon that pitches
   29. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: December 28, 2006 at 01:12 AM (#2269720)
As my other posts have indicated, I'm not much of a Shea Hillenbrand fan, but I do think that ZiPS is being too hard on him. He's played in "hitters' parks" for almost his whole career, but that doesn't much matter if he doesn't hit any better in them.

Home: 1718 PA, 287/320/447
Away: 1820 PA, 286/329/450

Actually, he was much better at home with Arizona and much better on the road with Boston. In his year and a half in Toronto, his numbers were fairly equivalent at home and away.

Though it's a small sample, Angel Stadium has been his best hitting environment:
57 PA, 389/421/722

He won't come close to matching that, but his career 773 OPS is probably a better estimate than the 735 projected by ZiPS.
   30. MSI Posted: December 28, 2006 at 01:13 AM (#2269721)
I don't like Hillenbrand as a person at all. But I don't get all the hate for him as a hitter. He's not good compared to elite hitters. But he's not that bad either. Medium power, slightly below average OBP, but decent average (he got a lot of rallies going for the Jays the last few years). The DP definitely are definitely something that isn't mentioned much that he is bad at. He's durable too. And considering this market....(however, I do like Craig Wilson and Josh Phelps alot better though...why did the Jays let go of Josh Phelps years ago again?). But there are tons of guys who can hit in this range, fringy MLB players that may make less, but have they really put together those types of numbers for seasons and years at a time? There past experience says no. (guys like Kotchman, Pena, etc. etc.). I guess sometimes its worth it to take a flier on them if they have more upside. But anyway, the guy still eats spam and lives in a trailer I've heard. And he thinks he's one of the top 10 players in baseball.

Arom, what is the relationship between Donnely and Hilenbrand? I think when/if he plays in Toront this year, he'll get booed. But all the other guys, Catalanatto, Speier, will be cheered very muchly.
   31. MSI Posted: December 28, 2006 at 01:18 AM (#2269724)
But I guess if Hillenbrand ever wants to hit more than middling power in a year, he'll have to be playing in a very hitters friendly planet, hopefully with little gravity so the ball just float into space forever. But unfortunately it ain't happening.
   32. AROM Posted: December 28, 2006 at 01:29 AM (#2269726)
Arom, what is the relationship between Donnely and Hilenbrand?

None that I know of. Just that I never, ever root for the Red Sox. But I'll make an exception when Donnelly faces Hillenbrand, because I like Donnelly and hate this signing.
   33.     Hey Gurl Posted: December 28, 2006 at 01:59 AM (#2269735)
It's just hard to figure out what it is about Hillenbrand that makes his perceived value so much higher than that of, say, Eric Hinske. I mean honestly, look at those two players. Hinske and Hillenbrand both play the same positions, and at about the same level of ability. They both make outs at about the same rate and hit for about the same amount of power. Hinske strikes out more, but Hillenbrand grounds into more double plays so pick your poison. I think Hinske is a better baserunner although neither one is fast.

OPS+ Hinske 100, Hillenbrand 99.
EqA Hinske .261, Hillenbrand .259

Hinske is by all accounts a good teammate who's willing to sacrifice his ego for the good of the team (learned two new positions in the last two years with the Jays and didn't complain when he was designated to a utility role). Hillenbrand is by all accounts a jackass who thinks he's an all-star and publicly complains about his playing time on a regular basis.

Yet, it seems like Hillenbrand is always a much sought after player by GM's while Hinske is thought of like a minor leaguer. What am I missing?
   34. MSI Posted: December 28, 2006 at 02:17 AM (#2269739)
Don't get me started on the Hinske trade last year. After all that, all his year of suckage, the cirucmstances aligned perfectly for that to be a horrible trade.
   35. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 06:05 AM (#2269841)
Just that I never, ever root for the Red Sox.

This is because you are a bad person who seems to think that the Reticulans' ability to utilize alternate dimensions doesn't constitute cheating.
   36. Halofan Posted: December 28, 2006 at 06:18 AM (#2269847)
Tell "Toomuchcoffeeman" that there are no talk shows in Anaheim.
   37. DCW3 Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:07 AM (#2269869)
He won't come close to matching that, but his career 773 OPS is probably a better estimate than the 735 projected by ZiPS.

The problem is, even a .773 OPS for a poor-fielding first baseman makes him a terrible player. If he hits like his ZiPS projection he'd be close to replacement level.
   38. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:07 AM (#2269878)
Tell "Toomuchcoffeeman" that there are no talk shows in Anaheim.

I would assume that you know that Anahiem isn't exactly the only city for a hundred miles around. Right?
   39. JPWF13 Posted: December 28, 2006 at 05:50 PM (#2270045)
He's not good compared to elite hitters. But he's not that bad either.


He's a 1B, a .773 OPS from your 1B is definately below average (whether you use mean or median)- and it's not like he brings anyhing else with him- leadership (no) defense (not really), baserunning (gag), little thngs? (yeah right).
   40. AROM Posted: December 28, 2006 at 06:31 PM (#2270105)
This is because you are a bad person who seems to think that the Reticulans' ability to utilize alternate dimensions doesn't constitute cheating.

Come on, no one's ever proven that. Their advantage in baseball is due to millenia of selective breeding.
   41. Slinger Francisco Barrios (Dr. Memory) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 07:24 PM (#2270163)
Satchel Paige didn't die--he's still pitching, and for the Aldebaran ß Ham Eater-Fighters (they offer more money than Brian Sabean). Which is why they win it every year, and they're favorites to win it again next year.
   42. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2270208)
I'm telling you, Hillenbrand tips the scales in favor of the Angels. Also, Zipstorn has already clinched the Brinthian league with 2.3 space months left in the season -- they're pretty strong, and they'll practically have home field advantage playing on Xylon-23. I'm expecting the Eater-Fighters be overwhelmed by the crowds consisting almost entirely of 30-armed Zipstornians in sound-amplifying, oxygenless bubbles. Between that, and the gravity change, they're going to have trouble.
   43. Matthew E Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:19 PM (#2270221)
why did the Jays let go of Josh Phelps years ago again?

Because he stopped doing anything right.
   44. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:40 PM (#2270243)
somehow this is Jim Edmonds fault.
   45. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2270252)
Satchel Paige didn't die--he's still pitching, and for the Aldebaran ß Ham Eater-Fighters (they offer more money than Brian Sabean). Which is why they win it every year, and they're favorites to win it again next year.

Who's Spaceman Lee pitching for these days?
   46. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 28, 2006 at 08:48 PM (#2270253)
Interesting that Hillenbrand will make $4M more than Millar next year. Is Hillenbrand better in any way?
   47. Los Angeles El Hombre de Anaheim Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2270285)
He's going to make more than $6M more than Casey Kotchman. Even up, I'd take Kotchman.
   48. chris p Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2270286)
Who's Spaceman Lee pitching for these days?

he actually is still pitching in like an over 40 league or something. nesn (i think) had a bit about how his team took a trip to cuba.
   49. AROM Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:24 PM (#2270299)
Interesting that Hillenbrand will make $4M more than Millar next year. Is Hillenbrand better in any way?

I don't think so. I find Millar a bit annoying, but I don't detest him like Hillenbrand, and I think Millar is more willing to fit into a role where he might play a lot or might be a part timer, depending on how other players turn out. The only thing Hillenbrand probably is better at is 3rd base defense, but only because I'd expect Millar to be really bad if forced to play there all the time, and Hillenbrand is bad enough that he should never play 3rd base anyway.

That kind of argument is like asking who'd be worse as a catcher, David Ortiz or Travis Hafner? Answer is you don't ever play either one there.

So, no, as a 1B/DH, Millar is better in every way. Its very sad when the Orioles are making smarter decisions than your team is.
   50. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:27 PM (#2270303)
Angels - Signed Hillenbrand
BOOO!!
Los Angeles Angels - Signed 1B Shea Hillenbrand
BOOOO!!!
to a 1-year contract.

A wonderful $6.5 million with a vesting option for 2008. If you ignore that Hillenbrand
BOOOOOOO~!!!
   51. AROM Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:29 PM (#2270307)
At this point, yes, I think he is.

He may have slightly more power, but Millar's worst season in OBP beats Hillenbrand's best.
   52. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:38 PM (#2270313)
By OPS+, Millar has been the better hitter two out of the last three years, and generally has been since the start of their respective careers, mostly because he's never put up a catastrophic OBP. HIllenbrand is a few years younger. As to their difference, my grasp on the specifics of their abilities couldn't be classified as strong, but the consensus seems to be that they're both butchers, but thaat maybe Hillenbrand is slightly less of a butcher.

I think they break out about equal. Given that Hillenbrand is a slavering ####### while Millar is just a doofus, I'd take Millar. But I wouldn't be terribly happy with either one.
   53. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:42 PM (#2270319)
Excuse me, that should read, As to their defense . . .
   54. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 28, 2006 at 09:45 PM (#2270322)
At this point, yes, I think he is.

How so? They appear to be about even defensively, and I can't see an argument for Hillenbrand as the better hitter. Hillenbrand certainly doesn't have any clear advantage as a leader or baserunner.

For $2.5M, Millar is actually a pretty useful player, if used correctly. That is, as a backup 1b/dh/rf/ph who gets ~400 PAs. A guy like that on your bench is very valuable. Unfortunately for the Orioles, he's pretty useless as the fulltime 1b. Hillenbrand could be similarly useful IF (a) he was getting only a couple million, and (b) he was on a team that didn't already have 2-3 better options for that role.
   55. AROM Posted: December 28, 2006 at 11:49 PM (#2270437)
A pile of boulders has a clear advantage over Millar on the bases.

Hillenbrand isn't much on the bases either. But we do happen to have a pile of boulders in the stadium. We can use them to pinch run, and when Hillenbrand feels slighted and goes Guillen, we can DFA him out of town.
   56. MSI Posted: December 30, 2006 at 12:35 AM (#2271162)
I think Hillenbrand's reputation is better ability wise for him to command a better contract than Millar. Interesting though, Millar is probably a better player what with equal power and much better OBP numbers.
   57. kwarren Posted: December 30, 2006 at 09:59 AM (#2271334)
2007 ZiPS Projection - Shea Hillenbrand
----------------------------------------------------------------------
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Projection 522 65 143 29 1 13 63 23 105 2 .274 .327 .408

| Hillenbrand's OPS for his past five seasons - .789, .782, .812, .792, and .764.

Looks like ZIPS 2007 projection is more a reflection on Hillenbrand's popularity, rather than his hitting ability. But it won't bother me one iota if he actually puts up this .735 number and the Angels miss the AL playoffs by one game.
   58. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 30, 2006 at 10:48 AM (#2271338)
It's a mean projection, kwarren. No, the other kind of mean :) Hillenbrand is going to be 31, so I suspect that he stands an excellent chance of falling off the cliff, as well as a decent chance of of not seeing his performance drop off at all. One of the other of those things is probably going to come closer to happening than his projection.
   59. DCW3 Posted: December 30, 2006 at 07:31 PM (#2271413)
Also, Hillenbrand is moving to the worst hitters' park he's ever played in.
   60. Walt Davis Posted: December 30, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2271445)
A quick Marcel on Hillenbrand puts him at a 782 OPS. His "Marcel PF" (I love making stuff up) is about 102, so that translates to about a 767 neutral OPS. The Marcel PF of Anaheim is about 96, so that becomes a 736 Anaheim OPS.

And I've just cracked ZIPS. :-)

Still, if I was a betting man, I'd take the over.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Harveys Wallbangers
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4410 seconds
42 querie(s) executed