BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion :: Angels

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Angels - Signed Oliver

Los Angeles Angels - SIgned P Darren Oliver to a 1-year contract.

Hey, the Angels make a smart signing this offseason! Whoever heard of a reliever with an attached arm only getting 1-year, $1.5 million contract? For almost a decade, teams have given endless starts to Oliver in an attempt to recapture those first two seasons when he was a solid #2 starter. The Mets did the smart thing, stuck him in relief full-time, and he responded with contributing to a team for the first time post-Y2K. The Angels aren’t strong in left-handed relief, so this will be a solid, if not spectacular, bullpen addition.

2007 ZiPS Projection -  Buzz Oliver
——————————————————————————————-

            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-

Projection  3   2  29   4   61   63   29   9  16  40  4.28
——————————————————————————————-

Opt. (15%)  3   2  32   4   69   66   27   8  15  46  3.52

Pes. (15%)  2   2  24   3   49   55   29  10  15  31  5.33
———————————————————————————————

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2006 at 12:04 AM | 20 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:36 AM (#2259772)

Wow, I gotta say that I'm surprised to see such a nice projection from Oliver. He had a very nice year last year but he didn't even play at the big league level in 2005. Not that I'm doubting he will do that well, I just didn't think he'd project so well.

Oliver was a very underrated part of the 2006 Mets. He really was amazing. Anytime the Mets needed innings in a blowout or extra inning game, they could count on Oliver to give them 3-5 innings. Because of the turbulent season the 2006 Met starters endured, Oliver was asked to do this a lot.

The reason Oliver was so valuable is that the Mets could always count on Oliver to get them to the sixth inning if the starter got bombed and they never really had to use their main guys in the bullpen other when they needed them in the late innings.

I won't ever say anything bad about what Oliver did for the Mets in 2006.

2. sardonic Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:41 AM (#2259779)

Man... I would much rather have this deal than the one the A's gave Embree.

3. Raskolnikov Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:47 AM (#2259783)

I don't get why the Mets didn't resign him. Oliver was a key part of 2006, and you never know if someone else can be as effective in his role. This was not an expensive contract, nor was it a long commitment. I give Mets' decision on this a thumbs down.

4. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:50 AM (#2259786)

Perhaps the re-signing of Dave Williams indicates that he will be used as the Lefty Long Relief Guy. They don't really need more than one of those.

5. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:51 AM (#2259787)

I think the Mets want to use Dave Williams in that role. Maybe he won;t be as effective as Kool-Aid v 2.0 was in 2006 but how confident can anyone be that Oliver will be as good in 2007 as he was in 2006?

6. AJM Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:54 AM (#2259790)

I agree with Rask. At the very least they should've offered arbitration.

7. Raskolnikov Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:57 AM (#2259791)

I guess, but it's still not a sure thing with Williams. Those long relief innings are pretty important. I would have tried to find some way to keep Oliver on the roster or at least offer him arb.

8. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 13, 2006 at 07:58 AM (#2259792)

As of right now, the bullpen looks like this:

Wagner
Heilman
Sanchez
Burgos
Williams
Feliciano

Ideally, you'd like a ROOGY to complement Feliciano but that's not bad at all. If Peterson can fix Burgos, the Mets will be in business.

9. Raskolnikov Posted: December 13, 2006 at 08:08 AM (#2259799)

Regarding the long relief: That's Williams, and I guess Vargas if Williams gets bombed. I don't know, it's not always the easiest thing to find a reliable mop-up man.

And for me, Padilla > Burgos. Burgos is Julio II, I'm going to squirmish whenever he's in the game until 2 weeks' worth of solid outings.

10. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: December 13, 2006 at 08:08 AM (#2259800)

Ideally, you'd like a ROOGY to complement Feliciano

You still have Steve Schmoll who was acquired in the Jae Weong Sioux trade. That sounds like the role for him.

11. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 13, 2006 at 04:59 PM (#2260068)

Wow, I gotta say that I'm surprised to see such a nice projection from Oliver. He had a very nice year last year but he didn't even play at the big league level in 2005. Not that I'm doubting he will do that well, I just didn't think he'd project so well.

Darren Oliver, Career ERA
Starter: 5.14
Reliever: 3.91

He really should've been tried as a full-time reliever years ago. He was successful doing it as a rookie and spot relief through the years. I wouldn't be suprised if he actually beat the projection by a little.

12. 100MPH Posted: December 13, 2006 at 05:05 PM (#2260077)

Given the Mets status for both relief and starters ... letting Oliver go was a huge mistake.

13. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 13, 2006 at 05:17 PM (#2260095)

Was Oliver offered arbitration and, if so, do the Mets get picks for him?

14. Roadblock Jones Posted: December 13, 2006 at 05:19 PM (#2260098)

In a general sense I believe bench players and role-playing relievers are good things to turn over year after year. Not to get too touchy-feely, but a good season like Oliver's in a mop-up role sort of suggests a "promotion" to higher-leverage work with the club, but since that isn't forthcoming it's better just to let him go than ask for the same performance again (which is unlikely, given his age and history, etc...) Oliver's year reminded me in some ways of Pat Mahomes who was dynamite in that role in 99, earning him a repeat engagement in 2000 that was a disaster. Just as happy to turn over the role this year to Williams or Vargas.

Scmoll might get a shot as a roogy and I believe "Bazooka" Joe Smith may get a look too.

15. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim

Posted: December 13, 2006 at 05:37 PM (#2260121)

Damn hijackers.

The Angels really look good in the bullpen for next season:

Francisco Rodriguez
Scot Shields
Justin Speier
Brendan Donnelly
Hector Carrasco
Darren Oliver

That's as deep a pen as any in the league. Rotation as of today:

Lackey
Weaver
Escobar
Santana
Saunders
Colon, depending on recovery

Best pitching staff, 1-11 (or 12) in the league? Certainly the deepest. No more Jeff Weaver, no Romero, no Yan, no Gregg ... yeah, they're looking really, really good.

16. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: December 15, 2006 at 12:42 AM (#2261797)

I am happy with this signing. Even if he blows up, it's at basically no cost.

Oddly, over his career, Oliver doesn't really have a platoon advantage. He did last year, but in many years has been tougher on RHB than LHB. Dunno if the Lads are going to try to shoehorn him into the LOOGY role or not.

17. Astro-Bonilla Posted: December 19, 2006 at 04:38 AM (#2264741)

Francisco Rodriguez
Scot Shields
Justin Speier
Brendan Donnelly
Hector Carrasco
Darren Oliver

That's as deep a pen as any in the league.

What puzzles me, however, is that they have shown an excellent ability to turn freely available players (donnelly, shields) making league minimum into solid relivers, yet still spend a bit of cash on mid-level pen guys. To be fair, however, Carrasco has/had potential as a starter, and the Oliver signing is really cheap, and they did trade Donnelly (or gave him away).

18. bibigon Posted: December 22, 2006 at 02:12 AM (#2266867)

Best pitching staff, 1-11 (or 12) in the league? Certainly the deepest.

I think it is, and I'm not sure it's particularly close. The Tigers and Red Sox are up there in terms of rotation(but probably not as good), but can't keep up with that bullpen. I don't think anyone in the NL is on their level either. I wouldn't be surprised to see them post the lowest ERA in baseball, in spite of the league differential and DH.

19. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 22, 2006 at 02:13 AM (#2266869)

And still fail to make the playoffs, because of how bad their offense is.

20. Crispix Attacks 2: Swag Airlines Posted: December 22, 2006 at 02:23 AM (#2266873)

They don't have a bad offense. They just have a highly overpaid offense.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2006

Angels - Signed Oliver

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