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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Angels - Signed Weaver

Los Angeheim Angels - Signed P Jeff Weaver to a 1-year, $8.5 million contract.

4 years, 34 million?  3 years 25.5 million?  Not my cup of tea.  A single year at $8.5?  Great deal.  Weaver’s never going to be a star, but he’s a solid pitcher who wasn’t terribly suited to Chavez Ravine (while it’s a pitcher’s park, it’s been a decent home run park for a while).  Add in what should be a really good Angel defense and the side effect that the Angels will give up on their nutty idea of Hector Carrasco, Full Time Starter, and this is a great move for the Angels in what should be an exciting two-team race.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Jeff Weaver
———————————————————————-
W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
———————————————————————-
14 10 34 32 213 219   99 25 50 134 4.18

Dan Szymborski Posted: February 16, 2006 at 02:54 AM | 19 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Tim Wallach was my Hero Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:34 AM (#1863808)
Really nice move.
   2. Len Lansford, Carney Barker Posted: February 16, 2006 at 04:51 AM (#1863825)
Would've preferred him with the Tribe, but the West Coast has been the destination of choice this year, it seems.
   3. Ivan Grushenko of Hong Kong Posted: February 16, 2006 at 05:06 AM (#1863836)
exciting two-team race.

Which of the A's, Mariners or Rangers aren't a contender?
   4. bookbook Posted: February 16, 2006 at 05:15 AM (#1863841)
Mariners and Rangers.

If the Rangers sign Clemens that changes obviously.

However, the M's are more than an inner circle HOFer away or two from contending in 2006.
   5. Shoebo Posted: February 16, 2006 at 05:16 AM (#1863842)
The two teams with lousy pitching
   6. Dr. Vaux Posted: February 16, 2006 at 12:03 PM (#1864238)
Well, the Rangers project to score 900 and allow 800. That's a contender.
   7. grich Posted: February 17, 2006 at 08:19 AM (#1865679)
Yep, the Rangers are definite contenders, especially given that the Angels and Athletics aren't all that overwhelming. The Mariners have a good chance at 80 wins, and thus have an outside chance of sneaking in if the other three teams have major problems. But I'm giving these chances:

Angels 38%
Athletics 34%
Rangers 24%
Mariners 4%

Or something like that. But the Mariners are only so low not because they're that much worse than the other three, but because there are three teams that are better than them in their division. That stacks the odds pretty badly against you.

Weaver probably pushed the Angels up a few percentage points, from a dead-heat with Oakland. The Angels are not going to give up many runs this year; if Kotchman and McPherson develop, they could win the division by 10 games.
   8. Matt Welch Posted: February 17, 2006 at 08:39 AM (#1865685)
There's a substantial difference between "the Rangers project" and "I project the Rangers" ...
   9. Darrel_Thomas'_English_Muffin Posted: February 18, 2006 at 05:31 AM (#1866889)
do they even project to score more runs than they allow?
   10. peter21 Posted: February 18, 2006 at 09:46 PM (#1867274)
It seems to me that Oakland has a much better chance to win the division than anyone else. In fact, I'd put Los Anaheim closer to Texas than to Oakland.
   11. Klutts Posted: February 18, 2006 at 10:02 PM (#1867286)
The big thing is still the A's getting Crosby and Harden back healthy for a full season. That, Dan Johnson for a full year, Swisher healed from his thumb injury, and no Dotel giving up walkoffs to Kevin Millar push the A's at least even with the Angels. The Big Hurt, Bradley and Loiaza give them exceptional depth and push them well past the Angels. If any team is likely to win the division by more than 10 games, it's the A's.
   12. Bwef Posted: February 21, 2006 at 09:10 PM (#1870683)
A quick look at the respective rosters makes me think the A's will have trouble scoring runs and are a bit thin in the bullpen, neither is something that could be said of the Angels. It looks like a one team race, absent a big mid season steal. For those of you who think the Big Hurt has something left, forget it. If he did, someone else would have paid for him.
   13. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: February 21, 2006 at 09:17 PM (#1870698)
A quick look at the respective rosters makes me think the A's will have trouble scoring runs and are a bit thin in the bullpen, neither is something that could be said of the Angels.

You don't think the Angels will have trouble scoring runs?
   14. SakataKin Posted: February 22, 2006 at 08:30 AM (#1871251)
A quick look at the respective rosters makes me think the A's will have trouble scoring runs and are a bit thin in the bullpen, neither is something that could be said of the Angels. It looks like a one team race, absent a big mid season steal. For those of you who think the Big Hurt has something left, forget it. If he did, someone else would have paid for him.

The A's aren't likely to have trouble scoring runs; not for the 100-ish games that Frank Thomas and/ or Milton Bradley will be in the Lineup, at least (and for the rest of the season, they'd be around league-average). The Angels, on the other hand, will have some significant difficulties being league-average or better, as the only really good hitters projected to be in the Lineup everyday are Chone Figgins.

And both teams will likely have around borderline Top-5 bullpens or better in the AL; as will the Mariners. All three were last 4-5-6 year, and all three have gotten better in the offseason.
   15. SakataKin Posted: February 22, 2006 at 08:32 AM (#1871253)
Argh...

<corrected>The Angels, on the other hand, will have some significant difficulties being league-average or better, as the only really good hitters projected to be in the Lineup everyday are Vlad and Chone Figgins.</corrected>
   16. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: February 22, 2006 at 09:23 AM (#1871263)
How exactly does Figgins project to be a better hitter than Adam Kennedy, Garret Anderson, Casey Kotchman, or Juan RIvera? He might end up edging out Kennedy, Garret, and Rivera, but each of those guys should be right around average at worst. Kotchman should be a bit better than that ...
   17. Cowboy Popup Posted: February 22, 2006 at 12:21 PM (#1871285)
"How exactly does Figgins project to be a better hitter than Adam Kennedy, Garret Anderson, Casey Kotchman, or Juan RIvera?"

Figgins is, IMO, very likely to outproduce Anderson, at least when his steals are factored in (in other words, EQA, which I have a hard on for).

Is Rivera going to be starting this year? That's gonna be cool, I've wanted to see what he can do with a starting job for like 4 years now.
   18. The NeverEnding Torii (oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh oh) Posted: February 26, 2006 at 06:11 AM (#1875445)
"The Angels will have trouble scoring runs." The Angels won the division last year "having trouble scoring runs". Of course, the pitching was great last year and the division is stronger in 2006 .. but so are the Angels.

1. Kotchman is going to be a massive upgrade over Erstad. I'll be shocked if Kotch doesn't hit more than 20 HRs and hits below .280.

2. Erstad - while not the most productive Angel - is a massive upgrade over 2005 Steve Finley. (Then again, an inanimate carbon rod might be an upgrade over 2005 Finley.)

3. You still have Figgins at the top of the line-up & Vlad in the 3 hole. You've also got Kennedy - who probably isn't going to hit below .270 and may be the best #9 hitter in baseball. And you've got The OC - who will probably have a better offensive season than he did last year.

4. There's also the fact that Rivera will likely be an everyday guy and McPherson may be a major player in the DH/3B role. I'll gladly accept 15 HRs and a .280 average from GA, if you've got Rivera, Kotch and D-Mac banging out 22 HRs each.
   19. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: March 01, 2006 at 12:36 AM (#1878837)
You've also got Kennedy - who probably isn't going to hit below .270 and may be the best #9 hitter in baseball.

You say that as though suboptimal lineup construction were a mark in their favor.

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