BBTF's Transaction Oracle Discussion

Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 07, 2004

Arizona Diamondbacks

Signed 2B Roberto Alomar to a 1-year contract worth $1 million.

How the mighty have fallen. What’s really scary about Alomar the last few years is that his defense has declined as rapidly as his offense and even if he matches the projection, he’s still not all that great. Another year like 2003 and Alomar might retire and I bet nobody predicted he’d fail to outlast Sandy. Matt Kata gets displaced by this move, to no gain of the Diamondbacks.

Alomar, Roberto - 2004 ZiPS Projection
————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
————————————————————————————-
542 81 149 37 4 10 64 63 75 14 .275 .354 .413

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 07, 2004 at 06:53 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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1. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 18, 2001 at 10:23 PM (#552253)

Third Place for Red Sox fans with their long past,

2. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 19, 2001 at 12:58 AM (#552254)

But Gammons loves him!

3. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: December 19, 2001 at 06:17 AM (#552255)

Geek.

4. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 21, 2001 at 11:34 PM (#552346)

It's not David Wells' fault that pharmaceutical companies have spent all their time trying to figure out how to drug normal teenage children when they could have spent their time figuring out how to make powerful weight-loss beer.

5. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 15, 2002 at 03:11 AM (#552613)

I could see Estrada or Johnson being useful as swing men if given the opportunity. There's been enough bad pitching in the orgainization's recent past that grabbing a couple guys like this out of the discount bin can't hurt.

It's also nice to see Yorkis Perez catch on somewhere, given how much his life sucks right now.

6. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 15, 2002 at 03:43 AM (#552614)

I think especially Estrada could be useful. I don't, however, think he'll get a chance with the Diamondbacks.

7. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 15, 2002 at 02:35 PM (#552616)

It is sort of strange that Brad Cresse was jumbled in there. I had just assumed that the Diamondbacks did some silly roster shuffling. The rest of the list appear to be the standard 6-year minor league free agents, which Cresse obviously is not.

The essential problem with Cresse is that the Diamondbacks supposedly don't like his catching defense, which really hurts him. If he eventually changes positions, that reduces his value tremendously but if he's a catcher and Arizona refuses to use him at that capacity, he rots in Tucson until he's out of option years.

8. Alan Posted: January 20, 2002 at 05:50 AM (#552937)

The Pats/Raiders game was great. Adam Vinatieri must be pretty happy right now.

9. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: January 20, 2002 at 06:04 AM (#552938)

Hey, I don't know about changing of the subject in the first post.

Great game indeed... nice to see a playoff game in the snow.

10. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 20, 2002 at 06:17 AM (#552939)

Thanks to that same storm, of course, I was stuck watching the game at home rather than at Ye Olde Sports Bar.

11. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: January 20, 2002 at 06:41 AM (#552940)

Great? Great? How can you call a game great when it's rightful conclusion was overturned (at best, without sufficient evidence)? I don't know what the rules actually say, but I say this: the spirit of the rule should be to determine whether he was trying to pass. He clearly was not. Furthermore, his arm was not moving forward; the pump-fake was over, and he was bringing the ball back in. And then, for Oakland to run the clock out (I'll never understand that)...

As far as Ricky Helling: he's probably spinning in his grave after that New England-Oakland game.

12. JB Posted: January 20, 2002 at 10:46 AM (#552945)

"allegedly good defensive play"?!?!

13. Steve Treder Posted: January 20, 2002 at 06:46 PM (#552949)

So, I must have missed the part when Rick Helling pump-faked Dan Dierdorf ...

But seriously, to the proper subject at hand here. That was a very questionable, very tough call that went against the Raiders. Sure. But they were still leading the game at that point. It wasn't the referees who took the rest of the evening off, it was the Raiders' defense.

And what was up with the Raiders taking a kneel when they got possession of the ball, score tied, with 20-something seconds to go in regulation? Note to Jon Gruden: in that situation, the game is in sudden death. JUST LIKE OVERTIME. You have NOTHING TO GAIN, and SOMETHING VITAL (called POSSESSION) to LOSE by taking a kneel right then, rather than throwing deep and seeing what happens. What a dimwit.

I was rooting for the Raiders. Can you tell? I'm not ordinarily much of a Raiders fan, but with the 49ers out of it, I figured what the hell. And they go and perform this El Foldo. Sheesh.

How long again is it until spring training starts?

14. Alan Posted: January 20, 2002 at 07:21 PM (#552951)

"How long again is it until spring training starts?"

Steve, according to Mets.com, only 1,080 days until pitchers and catchers report. According to everything else I've checked, it's between 25-30 days for most of the other teams. And the first spring training games are in February this year!

As for the main topic of this board, who really cares about Rick Helling signing a 1-year contract? I don't. I felt like talking about the game instead. My Patriots won, and the Steelers are taking care of Ravens, the only team whom my hatred for can even compare with the hatred I have for the Yankees(if it weren't for Ray Lewis and Shannon Sharpe, I'd having nothing against them). A Patriots/Steelers AFC Championship will be good. Best chance of seeing more snow.

15. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: January 20, 2002 at 07:22 PM (#552952)

My complaints about the call were this:

1. The rule should involve whether the guy was actually trying to throw.

2. In my opinion, his arm wasn't moving forward.

3. In any case, the replays didn't seem conclusive enough to overturn the ruling on the field.

And yes, I hate when teams take a knee. Even if they're so terrified of an interception, why not try a run? They had two time outs and only needed to get to field goal range. Also, I've never been a fan of sudden death overtime. Here's my proposal: if you kick a field goal, you kick off and the other team gets one possession, so your defense has to make a stand. If you get a touchdown, you win outright.

16. Alan Posted: January 20, 2002 at 07:39 PM (#552953)

Dan wrote: (My complaints about the call were this:

1. The rule should involve whether the guy was actually trying to throw.

2. In my opinion, his arm wasn't moving forward.

3. In any case, the replays didn't seem conclusive enough to overturn the ruling on the field.)

The only one I'd agree with you on is the last one. Whether or not the rule should involve what the intent of the quarterback was, it doesn't, so that's not a reason to say it was a bad call. I did think his arm was moving forward, but I agree that it wasn't perfectly conclusive. And that's what you need to overturn a call. Anyway, I'm happy :)

(And yes, I hate when teams take a knee. Even if they're so terrified of an interception, why not try a run?)

Without any stats or evidence to back me up, I would say that a team is more likely to fumble the ball than they are to break the 40+ yard run (or two 20 yard runs) they would've needed to get into field goal range for the drunken drug dealer. Any fumble recovered by the Pats would have given Vinatieri a good chance to end the game.

(Also, I've never been a fan of sudden death overtime. Here's my proposal: if you kick a field goal, you kick off and the other team gets one possession, so your defense has to make a stand. If you get a touchdown, you win outright.)

I would like it if they went to college OT format. Each team starts at the opponents 25 and treats it like an actual drive. The team with the most points after each team has had a possession wins.

17. Steve Treder Posted: January 20, 2002 at 08:10 PM (#552954)

"I would like it if they went to college OT format. Each team starts at the opponents 25 and treats it like an actual drive. The team with the most points after each team has had a possession wins."

Hear hear. As it is now, it's all about justing getting possession first and getting into field goal range. I bet the correlation between winning the toss and winning in OT is huge in the NFL.

18. Mike Posted: January 20, 2002 at 08:30 PM (#552955)

Steve Treder Wrote:

"Hear hear. As it is now, it's all about justing getting possession first and getting into field goal range. I bet the correlation between winning the toss and winning in OT is huge in the NFL."

Surprisingly, this isn't true. The last time I saw the numbers (during a regular season game) the team winning the toss won about 49% of the games and the team losing it, about 51%. This makes some sense, as the loser of the toss would end up with better field position than the winner if they hold the winner to less than 20 yards on the first drive. If the numbers were much different, I think there would be a change but there is no evidence that winning the coin toss in OT makes much of a difference.

I have mixed feelings on the college system, the Kansas tiebreaker. It does make for exciting football, but it has a penalty kick feel to it. I like it in general, and the Mississippi-Arkansas game this season showed the system at its best (and worst, I suppose). It does give take away the advantage of a great defensive team and helps teams with weak offenses, but once the game is tied in regulation, both teams were more or less equal for that day. I would make teams go for two right off the bat on touchdowns instead of on the third and all future possessions.

19. Bull Pain Posted: January 20, 2002 at 09:34 PM (#552956)

I always felt a good NFL overtime rule would be the first team to 6 points wins. This way a team could not just kick a FG on third down once they are in FG range and walk away the winner. It would make for better football, and some good strategy on 4th downs in field goal range.

20. Alan Posted: January 20, 2002 at 09:44 PM (#552957)

I suggested a college-like OT in the NFL, but my first choice would be another full quarter. That would make for some very exciting games.

21. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 21, 2002 at 01:57 AM (#552961)

I sorta feel sorry for the guy who wanted to talk about Rick Helling.

So...

...could Rick Helling throw for 300 yards in the Rams offense?

22. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 21, 2002 at 01:57 AM (#552962)

I sorta feel sorry for the guy who wanted to talk about Rick Helling.

So...

...could Rick Helling throw for 300 yards in the Rams offense?

23. Alan Posted: January 21, 2002 at 03:00 AM (#552964)

Is Kurt Warner the most overrated quarterback in the history of the NFL or what? With Torry Holt, Az Hakim, Isaac Bruce, Marshall Faulk and every other wideout and halfback this team has, all you need to is be able to throw the ball far, and no one can keep up with them. I'm not saying he isn't a very good quarterback (I think he's probably among the 5 or 10 best QBs in the league), but he wasn't more valuable than Marshall Faulk. Does anyone really think he's better than Favre or Manning or McNabb or Garcia or Gannon? I sure don't.

24. Mike Posted: January 21, 2002 at 05:13 AM (#552966)

Alan--

I don't know about that. Warner is incredibly accurate and he has taken that offense to another level. I'm not sure that he was more valuable than Faulk, but between him, Favre, Manning and McNabb (who are the only other ones who should be in the discussion), I'm not sure which I would choose. One of the reasons Holt, Bruce & co. can put up such big numbers is that Warner hits them in stride so often. Trent Green is a decent NFL QB and he did not put up anywhere near Warner's numbers when he filled in last season. There will always be a certain bias against Warner because of the talent he has around him, but none of the guys you mentioned would be 14-2 with that offense.

25. J. Michael Neal Posted: January 21, 2002 at 03:57 PM (#552969)

The Call,

I guess my views on this are influenced by being a hockey fan, where the ref is supposed to use his discretion, but I thought the call was a good one. What know one seems to notice is that Tom Brady dropped the ball because Woodson hit him in the head; that's supposed to be illegal. Now, I don't think he hit him hard enough to draw a Roughing penalty, but I don't think that he should be rewarded for it, either. Just wave off the icing because he played the body, or rule it an incomplete pass or something.

Kurt Warner,

Alan, you might want to check out the performance of the Rams when Warner is hurt. That offense just doesn't look the same if he's not playing, despite all of those receivers and running backs (and, lest we forget, a very good line).

26. Alan Posted: January 21, 2002 at 05:09 PM (#552970)

Everyone,

I do think Warner is a very good QB. I said that it my post, but I just don't think I'd call him the best in the league, no less the league MVP. And I'm not saying it means Green is better than Warner, but to everyone that said the team greatly suffered last year when Warner was hurt, Green had a QB rating of 101.8 in 240 passing attempts compared to Warner's 98.3 in 347 attempts. Green had 16/5 TD/INT while Warner had 21/18. In his defense Warner did have a higher completion % and yards/pass. He took every snap for the Rams this year so there is no one to compare him to now, but I wouldn't call him the best QB in the league.

J. Michael,

I don't know how I left out the O-line. Having been a lineman myself, my biased opinion is that the tackles are the most important position on offense. And they have the best in the league in Orlando Pace and another very good one in Ryan Tucker.

27. Walt Davis Posted: January 21, 2002 at 08:44 PM (#552971)

in both college and pros, during the regular season, I wish they'd just go back to ties. In college, I want to see a playoff system so I don't care what they do in bowl games. In college, I think it's silly that stats compiled in their phony overtimes count.

In college soccer (or at least women's college soccer which for some reason is the only college soccer I watch :-), in the playoffs they play 2 15-minute non-sudden-death OT's, followed by up to 2 15-minute sudden-death OT's, and if you're still tied after 150 minutes of soccer, you go to PK's. So I'd advocate something similar in pro football playoffs -- a 15 minute non-sudden-death period, followed by a 15-minute sudden death period (perhaps picking up where the previous OT period left off), followed by a college-style OT. If necessary to spur offense, try 10- and 9-man lineups (a la the NHL).

28. Dan 'The Boy' Werr Posted: January 21, 2002 at 08:59 PM (#552972)

I suspect the reason the NFL uses the sudden-death system is to keep games shorter. It's interesting, though, that?like the BCS?no one seems to like the system at all. I think that an eight-minute period is something the NFL could handle, though, or first team to six (which is kind of like my first suggestion). At least then, you avoid the ridiculous equal status of field goals and touchdowns, and we won't have to see kicking on third down, etc. Plus, field position still counts, and the games don't take an inordinate amount of extra time.

29. J. Michael Neal Posted: January 21, 2002 at 09:00 PM (#552973)

Alan,

Looking at Warner's season totals for last year is misleading. He was very obviously not healed when he came back after the injury. There is a very dramatic split between his pre-injury numbers and his post-injury numbers. The TD/INT ratio afterwards was 3/7, for instance. And even for the whole season, his Yards per Attempt, which is a more useful stat than pretty much anything that goes into the QB Rating, is better than a yard better than Green's; at 9.88, it was quite gaudy by any measure. Green, in fact, was second in the league in YPA.

Yes, that's an indication that the receivers are good. However, the 1.28 difference is greater than that of most of the instances over the last two years in which two QBs on the same team had more than 100 attempts. The cases where the split is comparable:

Chris Chandler/Danny Kanell - 2000

30. Alan Posted: January 21, 2002 at 09:11 PM (#552974)

I think I'd call Yards/Pass the SLG of football, and completion pct. the OBP. As I've said several times, I think Kurt Warner is very good, just not the best in the NFL.

31. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 21, 2002 at 09:14 PM (#552975)

Re: Alan

Warner's pre- and post-injury splits last season showed exactly what a reasonable person would expect, a dramatic decline in his performance following the broken finger. It's a bit disingenuous to hold up the performance of a healthy Green against that of a recovering Warner. Hand injuries in baseball can trouble a player long after he returns to the lineup; remember Sean Casey's problems coming back from a broken thumb in 2000? David Ortiz looked like two different players before and after his broken wrist last year. Warner, when healthy, is the best QB in the NFL.

32. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 21, 2002 at 09:18 PM (#552976)

Heh... beat me to it, Mr. Neal. Please disregard my previous post, since he said the same thing, only more clearly and with better support.

33. Alan Posted: January 21, 2002 at 09:55 PM (#552977)

To convince me that Kurt Warner is a better quarterback than Brett Favre would take a lot of work. I think you're all underestimating the impact Warner's receivers have on his stats. Like I said before, I'd actually rank Jeff Garcia, Manning, and McNabb ahead of him.

34. J. Michael Neal Posted: January 21, 2002 at 10:40 PM (#552978)

Alan,

I just don't see the numbers that back up your assertion. Is it the quality of the receivers? Well, Trent Green's YPA went down by 1.47 this year vs. last year. If we assume a 1.47 drop for Warner from last year's numbers, the only 2001 QB he would trail is himself, and it wouldn't be close. If we take the drop from *this* year's numbers, which I'd say is less accurate, he'd still beat Garcia and would be pretty comparable to Favre and Manning. If you take it from Warner's career average, it would beat all three of their performances from 2001 by a bit, and their career numbers more comfortably. I'd also argue that the Chiefs' receivers were crummier than those for any of the QBs you've listed, so this measure probably overcompensates.

The only approximation we have for isolating the effects of the system Warner plays under, and the quality of his receivers, is through Trent Green. And, while it's a method that has some flaws, the only evidence that it prodices is that Warner is really that good.

35. Alan Posted: January 22, 2002 at 07:39 AM (#552981)

Rick, just thank the Rangers offense for giving you a reputation as a good pitcher.

36. Colin Posted: June 12, 2002 at 04:13 PM (#557088)

Man, uncalled-for diss of Jeff Blauser!

37. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: June 12, 2002 at 04:26 PM (#557089)

Maybe they pull the plug on Womack when Matt Williams comes back. Counsell to SS?

38. Dan Szymborski

Posted: June 12, 2002 at 04:46 PM (#557090)

Womack's suckitude never bothered the Diamondbacks before; with a World Series win with Womack under their belts, I don't think they're going to start evaluating Womack on his merits now.

39. Joel Barrett Posted: June 13, 2002 at 12:31 AM (#557091)

"Man, uncalled-for diss of Jeff Blauser!"

It's particularly cruel considering that Blauser may be the best fielding starting SS in Atlanta Braves history.

"his shortstop defense is as bad as Jeff Blauser's"

Dan, I'm not really sure what your opinion of Blauser is based upon. He wasn't a gold-glove fielder, and he may very well have been bad at the end of his career in Chicago.

But during his prime he had a 6 or 7 year stretch with a zone rating well above average. During that span, he also set the Atlanta Braves team season record for SS fielding percentage (he has the 4 highest single season fielding percentages among Atlanta Braves shortstops). There was a several year period where he was about the 3rd or 4th best fielding starting SS in the NL.

There are hundreds of shortstops who are better examples of inept fielding. You might want to try to find a more appropriate one...

40. Dan Szymborski

Posted: June 13, 2002 at 01:42 AM (#557092)

I already got wrung over the rack on IM today!

Yes, Blauser did improve significantly in his career. At the beginning, he average 15 runs below average (by Dale Stephenson's Defensive runs).

41. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 07, 2002 at 11:07 PM (#557575)

As a Pirates fan, I was more excited when I thought that this was Jose Valverde, and then when I thought that it created a roster spot, but it's still a decent deal for everybody concerned. The Pirates get the chance to dump some unnecessary payroll and pick up some talent for a free-agent-to-be. The Diamondbacks get a guy who can probably relieve competently now in exchange for one who might possibly be able to relieve competently in the future. Fetters gets the trade he wanted in the offseason. It's all good.

42. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 12, 2002 at 02:06 AM (#557576)

Everyone else must've been struck dumb by the move, I guess...

43. jwb Posted: July 12, 2002 at 09:59 PM (#557577)

Fetters is 37, so he's an excellent fit for the D-backs.

44. Mike Emeigh

Posted: July 13, 2002 at 02:31 AM (#557664)

Hey Guy Cope:

Take a look at Arizona's starting lineup against Odalis Perez.

(Yeah, so Perez is a lefty. But Counsell is also a LHB, last time I looked...)

I'd bet that Counsell will still play a lot, with Womack and Williams being the bubble guys. Brenly showed with Jay Bell last year that he's not wedded to giving guys PT just because they've been around for a while.

-- MWE

45. Mike Emeigh

Posted: July 15, 2002 at 09:31 PM (#557670)

When Durazo was healthy earlier this year, he got most of the starts against RHP at 1B - he's played 30 games, starting 24 (18 at 1B and 6 at DH), with three of those games PH appearances after his latest injury.

I think Chris F is correct. If a player like Grace is playing well, Brenly will stick with him, but if he isn't, he'll look for other options. Brenly has already given up on Womack as a leadoff hitter;

46. Bob T Posted: July 16, 2002 at 08:09 PM (#557747)

Jose Guillen has only given the impression that he should be good. I assume Delucci and McCracken get the RF job now.

47. Greg Franklin Posted: July 17, 2002 at 04:43 PM (#557752)

Jensen is a Brewer. Apparently you consider playing for the Milwaukee Brewers "not-a-job." You're right, it's sort of like summertime work on one of those Alaskan fishing boats -- an educational experience.

48. Mike Emeigh

Posted: July 17, 2002 at 07:38 PM (#557753)

Guillen's one of those guys about whom the mantra was "he needs to learn plate discipline if he's ever going to be any good" - and he turned out to be one of those guys whose career was severely damaged by the effort to teach him to be more selective. Back in 1999, he started taking more pitches, many of which were hittable pitches, and ended up being screwed up so severely that he never recovered.

Yeah, he was probably pushed to the majors before he was ready, but he's probably more a victim of the Pirates' desire in those years to harp on what their prospects weren't doing, and try to *fix* it, rather than trying to leverage what they were capable of doing (see Hermansen, Chad for another example).

-- MWE

49. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 19, 2002 at 04:56 PM (#557755)

As the only other Pittsburgh fan on the board, I'm pretty much in agreement with Mike on this one.

50. NTNgod Posted: September 04, 2002 at 10:57 PM (#558744)

He's been liberated from the Mexico City Red Devils (.383/.477/.710)!

My prayers have been answered!

:)

51. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: September 05, 2002 at 12:55 AM (#558745)

Well, I was going to look into Mexican League translations, but as Prospectus's Minor League EqA page has temporarily turned into the Atlantic League page (problems loading the data?) I'll just say that's one hell of a line for Jose.

52. rlc Posted: September 05, 2002 at 06:25 PM (#558750)

I always envisioned a four man outfield rotation of Ken Griffey Jr, Junior Felix, Felix Jose, and Jose Canseco.

Wouldn't you rather rotate Junior Felix, Felix Jose, and Jose Cruz Junior?

53. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: September 07, 2002 at 07:31 PM (#558751)

Uh, with three guys, why would you need to rotate?

54. Shredder Posted: September 09, 2002 at 04:57 PM (#558753)

I love any Junior Felix reference. I once saw a pitcher throw him ten straight pitches out of the strike zone. He struck out. When he was with the Angels, my parents went to games on back to back Saturdays. They saw him strike out 9 consecutive times.

55. rlc Posted: September 10, 2002 at 12:51 AM (#558754)

Uh, with three guys, why would you need to rotate [JuniorFelixJoseCruzJuniorFelixJoseCruzJuniorFelixJoseCruzJunior...]?

Because the group is symmetric under rotation. And since they're all switch-hitters they should be platooned with each other as well.

56. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: September 10, 2002 at 02:45 AM (#558755)

Because the group is symmetric under rotation.

Best. Post. Ever.

57. Mikαεl Posted: December 09, 2002 at 04:51 PM (#560449)

How many guys who appeared to be complete busts at age 25 have had careers as good as Finley's?

He has 2000 hits, 200 homers, 1000 runs and should have 1000 RBI by the end of this deal.

58. Dan Szymborski

Posted: December 09, 2002 at 10:08 PM (#560453)

Vinay, I checked. It was actually Greg Spira.

59. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: December 09, 2002 at 11:49 PM (#560456)

unc84steve, you may be new, but that was pretty funny!

60. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 10, 2002 at 02:58 AM (#560459)

The Yankees blew their bullpen with an even bigger mistake than Karsay's contract-- it's spelled 'H-I-T-C-H-C-O-C-K'. There; I'm all cured. (The Cubs want a 'veteran lefty' for their rotation... Dusty, we've got an NLCS MVP for you.)

61. Walt Davis Posted: December 11, 2002 at 05:37 PM (#560465)

Teams are finally realizing that arbitration is killing them by inflating salaries as a secondary effect of bad deals given to free agents due to comparisons with the bad free agents signed.

This is wrong. Players that go to arbitration are compared to other players with a similar level of service time. The vast, vast majority of players that go to arbitration are the guys who haven't been eligible for free agency and therefore are compared to other guys who haven't yet gotten the big bucks. I'm having a hard time coming up with a single example of a FA-eligible player who went to arbitration and got an "inflated" salary as you describe.

62. True Blue n/k/a "DeJesusFreak" Posted: January 17, 2003 at 05:01 AM (#563633)

Yeah, but I'm guessing he's contributed less to baseball than Voros!

63. Cris E Posted: January 17, 2003 at 03:56 PM (#563634)

Two years, $3.5m for this:

Q's career OPS+ (2052 PAs)

64. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 18, 2003 at 04:37 AM (#563640)

Go Duke!

I bet Nan's getting a big check for the endowment in the mail any day now. Thanks, Q, and thanks to Arizona as well.

65. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 18, 2003 at 05:19 AM (#563642)

I dunno. There are a lot worse things that Garagiola could do with the money than use it to buy books and computers for my alma mater. Of course, I'm biased.

66. stephen Posted: January 18, 2003 at 05:23 AM (#563643)

What's Duke getting, $100,000? $250,000?

I'd rather Joe-Joe just wrote DUKE the check and then did something smart with the other $3-3.25mm. (oh, I dunno - maybe keeping Colby around?)

Q Mc C was a big-time bargain last year and I like the idea of him coming back.

But not for three and a half bones.

spb

67. Scott Posted: January 20, 2003 at 03:13 PM (#563644)

Quinton, Fill Ma' Crack In

68. stephen Posted: January 25, 2003 at 10:00 PM (#564263)

Gnats Fan,

Ummm. . . so what were you saying when, in Game TWO, the guy tossed two scoreless innings allowing only one baserunner and striking out two?

Two nights later it's "Manny who?"!?

You sound like the classic definition of a front-runner.

69. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 30, 2003 at 05:08 AM (#564592)

Yes, I know Kim's trying out for a rotation spot. That's hardly a done deal.

"Johnson, Schilling, and Dessens"

Anyone care to sing that Sesame Street song?

Patterson's hardly established, either, and if you think the team that compulsively signs Quinton McCracken and Mark Grace for no apparent reason is likely to give a lesser minor leaguer a chance, you're dreaming.

70. stephen Posted: January 30, 2003 at 06:28 AM (#564594)

Dan's criticisms - both the "back-end of the rotation" and 'senior-itis' - are spot on, IMO.

The Dbacks will be paying QMcC what Reggie Sanders made last year in SF. Please. As for Grace, great guy and a great career but that's just dumb. Or stupid sentimentality. (Put him in the booth with Thom for cryin' out loud and get rid of Traber.) But both moves show you the kind of misguided 'veteran' obsession from which Joe Jr. suffers. And just what Patterson is up against. Ask Brad Penny and Vlady Nunez and Vicente Padilla and Nick Bierbrodt and Duanar Sanchez and. . .

(Can they PLEASE keep a young arm around for a change? Just to see what might happen?!)

This team is deceptively suspect. Sure, 45% of their games will have someone named Johnson or Schilling as the starting pitcher. Then what? Elmer Dessens got a few breaks last year and put up an aberrant ERA. The fact remains that he is a league-average pitcher, at best. Just like Rick Helling before him. Just like Albie Lopez before HIM. Just like Todd Stottlemyre before HIM. Just like Bobby Witt. Just like Armando Reynoso. Ooops, they still HAVE Slo-mo Reynoso, don't they? Great guys, no doubt. But expecting ANY of them to post a 3.03 ERA promises to be an exercise in futility.

If Kim does make the rotation, they have no closer. Mantei might be ok if he stays healthy, but he can't. The guy has an ugly motion that puts tremendous stress on his arm. I doubt they get a full year out of him.

Then there are no lefties in the pen.

Johnson and Schilling are clearly the best 1-2 punch in all of baseball - that I will grant you. But Dessens, Patterson and Batista have to be in the third quintile for 3-4-5 starters. The bullpen would have to rank in the fourth to fifth quintiles. It is bad news. Jackson might help, but Dan correctly points out that his K rate has plummeted. Fast. As for Villone, he ain't even league average and I can't see how he can help.

The above paragraph tells us something very scary for the Dbacks - 2/3 of their regular-season innings will be sucked up by some pretty mediocre to poor pitchers.

Of course, if they can somehow get into the playoffs AGAIN, well - October is when you can tilt things a bit so that #s 1&2 toss 60% of your innings.

That makes them a different team.

71. stephen Posted: January 30, 2003 at 03:48 PM (#564596)

Being a big fan of Prinz, I hope you are right. Sadly, I fear this guy is ALSO staring in the face of a career full of arm problems. I don't detect the level of arm stress as someone like Mantei. . . but I believe it exists.

Additionally, I still don't understand why he suddenly lost the strike zone last year. (PCL numbers notwithstanding, the guy was pathetic in the spring and only modestly better in the fall.)

Nonetheless, your point stands. If healthy, I like that option a lot.

best,

72. Bill Posted: January 30, 2003 at 06:14 PM (#564598)

Possibly everyone but me knew this, but not only does Mike Jackson lead all active RHP's in appearances (960), but he leads by an enormous margin (Jose Mesa is 2nd at 701). I don't why this surprised me so much.

Although his declining K rate suggests that the end of the line is near, Mike has had a remarkably consistent run of good pitching. He was never really famous and he won't be long remembered, but it was a hell of a career.

73. John Posted: January 30, 2003 at 09:24 PM (#564602)

74. GGC don't think it can get longer than a novella Posted: January 31, 2003 at 04:02 AM (#564682)

I work for one of Bottalico's friends and knew about this one in advance. It was kind of weird being a semi-insider. Other than that, I have nothing to add to this thread.

GGC

75. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 31, 2003 at 05:09 AM (#564685)

Yeah, you guys didn't think much of my sense of humor, apparently! I'll get my revenge on 4/1, mind you.

76. scotto Posted: January 31, 2003 at 05:11 AM (#564686)

I'll look forward to the Bonds for Mondesi, White and Pettite post then.

77. Dan Szymborski

Posted: January 31, 2003 at 05:31 AM (#564690)

Buford's headed for the minors unless Minaya starts moving up the "flush talent down the toilet" timetable.

78. Greg Franklin Posted: January 31, 2003 at 07:43 AM (#564692)

Greg Harris retired too soon. In this day and age he would see a lot of BOOGY nights.

79. Mikαεl Posted: January 31, 2003 at 02:38 PM (#564696)

Fyhrie -> Philadelphia (minor-league deal)

80. Jason Posted: January 31, 2003 at 03:30 PM (#564697)

I think Pittsburgh signed all the pitchers on that list to guaranteed major league deals.

81. John Posted: January 31, 2003 at 03:47 PM (#564698)

"Greg Harris retired too soon. In this day and age he would see a lot of BOOGY nights."

Awesome post! I needed to laugh out loud just then....

82. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 31, 2003 at 04:29 PM (#564700)

Belliard -> Colorado, NRI

83. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: January 31, 2003 at 08:35 PM (#564703)

He's better than the other Colorado 2B options, that's for sure.

Sadly, Crispix, I AM more than mildly interested by the battle at the bottom of the Brewers' rotation. They've got two of my faves as candidates in Smith and Ritchie.

84. NTNgod Posted: February 01, 2003 at 02:10 AM (#564708)

K.C. Royals -- signed OF Mike Kelly to a minor league deal.

Yes, THAT Mike Kelly.

Insert your own Jim Ross impersonation here; it'd be appropriate :)

85. MM1f Posted: February 02, 2003 at 02:48 AM (#564709)

Come on folks,

86. bob mong Posted: March 03, 2003 at 11:42 PM (#565183)

Channelling the Score Bard?

87. Randal Posted: March 04, 2003 at 12:50 AM (#565186)

Are you the biggest idiot ever?

88. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 04, 2003 at 04:32 PM (#565190)

Well, I liked it. It may not be high art, but on the other hand, you never see Chris Kahrl burst out into spontaneous verse.

89. Rickey Fredonia Fudge Duckery Precious Twiddle Posted: March 04, 2003 at 09:22 PM (#565192)

Not bad, but Nick's riff on the Beverly Hillbillies song, over in ASB.AB was better.

90. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: March 05, 2003 at 03:45 AM (#565194)

I highly recommend you read the Jeff Cirillo entry in the new Prospectus book. All his ailments are blamed on the fact that two out of the three songs played announcing his at-bat are sappy Creed numbers.

I would tend to blame it on having to wait for three numbers to finish before he steps in. Why the hell do they play three different pieces to announce his at-bats? Is one not enough for these guys anymore?

91. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 05, 2003 at 04:50 PM (#565195)

Heh. There was a stretch in the middle of 2001 where Pat Meares was using "Blue Monday" for his intro.

92. Jimbo Jones Posted: March 05, 2003 at 08:12 PM (#565196)

Craig, they play different songs for different PAs, but only one per.

I laughed when I read that as I had come up with the exact same quip, and entertained several gameday companions with it throughout the year. I should write for BP, I guess.

Did anyone understand the Valdes comment? They seemed to be claiming two things: 1) Valdes was no better than Baldwin, and 2) They should have got him much sooner. Huh?

93. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: March 10, 2003 at 04:07 PM (#565198)

The Reds get a couple of potential bullpen arms in exchange for a couple of raw teenagers. Austin's probably ready right now, Shackleford's got a good arm but little experience (he's a converted outfielder, I believe). We won't be able to tell what the Royals got for at least three years.

94. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2003 at 04:02 PM (#565369)

So I went to B-R.com to look up Gonzalez's career and, well, I was quite surprised to find that his career OPS+ now stands at 123. That's pretty darn good. Not HOF or anything, but when you figure Clemente's was 130 and Rice's was 128, it's not that far off either. (I know, Rice isn't in the HOF, but he's borderline)

It also means that his 128 OPS+ last season is now an "average" year for him.

His most similar through age 34 is littered with guys who had substantial declines right around 35-36 (Bonilla, Reggie Smith, George Hendrick, Bobby Murcer, Fred Lynn). On the other hand, although the sim scores aren't all that high, the career pattern looks pretty similar to Chili Davis and Ellis Burks who both kept it going into their late 30's.

95. Walt Davis Posted: March 19, 2003 at 04:06 PM (#565370)

Oh yeah, the contract. It's a risk obviously, but $10 M isn't really "superstar" money (even in the "new economy"). He's in good shape and doesn't have much of an injury history that I know of -- so this is much better than the Cubs' signing of Alou for example. Heck, they were paying Jay Bell around $8-9 M.

Still, the D-Backs are a weird franchise. They're constantly bemoaning their money problems. Part of the problem when they tried to pick up Walker is that they insisted on backloading his contract, which suggests that at least the cash flow problems may be real. Yet they're not at all hesitant to commit this kind of money.

96. PhillyBooster Posted: March 19, 2003 at 05:34 PM (#565371)

Walt,

Perhaps the D-Backs paid their subscription to see the PECOTA cards. Then, they'd get a list of 20 most similar that include the following players who were still substantially productive (say, at least average) at age 38: George Brett, Stan Musial, Norm Cash, Gene Woodling, Carl Yastrzemski, Al Kaline, Jose Cruz, Ron Fairly, Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans, Paul O'Neill, Mickey Vernon, and Eddie Murray.

That's 13 out of 18 who were worthwhile at age 38. (2 out of 20 haven't played their age 38 year yet). Two or three others on the list were still productive at 37. Only two were out of baseball by age 38.

Based on PECOTA similarity, Fred Lynn (the only one on both the B-R and the PECOTA lists) looks more like a worst-case scenario than a typical example.

97. Ben Posted: March 19, 2003 at 07:50 PM (#565373)

It's pretty easy to imagine, just like I can imagine every other baseball player not holding out. Hockey and football have holdouts, not baseball.

98. Stevens Posted: March 19, 2003 at 09:05 PM (#565374)

If someone's making 10+ MM at age 38, he better be Barry Bonds. I think this will bite back where the Arizona sun don't shine.

99. Will B. Posted: March 20, 2003 at 01:44 AM (#565376)

Luis Gonzalez is a hero here in Arizona. He may not be worth the money long term (I think he will), but he really is a guy who puts the butts in the seats.

Arizona is a team that treats its players well, and I believe that will continue to be the case going forward. It could be something that helps recruits free-agents as well.

I mean, if I'm Vlad Guerrero (or whoever) and I have 5yrs/$80mill from Arizona and 5yrs/$83mill from Oakland, I'd take Arizona every time. I'd have faith in an ownership who has been proven to provide stability for the star players than an ownership (or GM) who would trade me in a heartbeat as soon as some youngster came around.

If Epstein & Riccardi follow the Beane mold closely, it'll be interesting to see how many big-name free agents will actually sign with them.

100. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: March 25, 2003 at 01:41 AM (#565434)

while it's hard to come out ahead in a 17 million dollar contract, the Diamondbacks shouldn't be hurting.

Well, they should, but they probably won't. In this case.

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