I think it's more likely that Crosby becomes a top 5 SS than it is that he becomes a washout. So the A's probably did the right thing here.

Barring what I say below, this looks a little on the good side. As Dan says, this is about what he gets as long as he starts. But if he turns out good, this probably saves about $3M. If he turns out great, this could save as much as $6 M.

But two things. I'm not a fan of making these deals after just one year. It's worked out well so far for the A's, but I don't see much reason not to wait until after year 2. That's doubly so when you're talking about a guy who's currently on the DL. He's clearly not going to have a big year by arb standards this year.

Second, Beane needs to have more respect for injury -- Dye, Jaha, Rhodes. Wait for Crosby to come back, make sure it's not a long-term problem, then wrap him up. Again, there's really no hurry to wrap him up.

I agree it seems a little early and a little expensive to wrap him up. It does provide cost certainty, and coming on the heels of the Harden signing fans know there will be at least 3 framiliar faces for years to come.

I can't help thinking about Terrance Long. OK, Crosby plays a more important position and seems to be a better player, but if he misses major time due to injury or fails to continue progressing this could be expensive. In terms of value I give this signing a big shrug - time will tell. As a fan its nice though.

Why think of Terrence Long and not the other deals, such as Chavez, that worked out well?

Of the young player to long-term deals under Beane I can think of Tejada, Hudson, Mulder, Zito, and Chavez that turned out well, and only Long and Grieve that didn't (though Grieve was jettisoned before it became obvious he wasn't progressing). Hernandez you could argue either way, but he did net Kotsay (unless you want to argue that the Padres really wanted Long and only took Ramon to get the deal done). If Harden and Crosby turn out as well as the first group this is a great strategy.

The difference between Crosby and T-Long is that even if Crosby craters at the plate, since he's an above-average defensive shortstop, he has value. It's hard to see this being a catastrophe for the A's (barring serious injury.) On the other hand, I doubt Crosby will break out into a super-duper-star, though anything is possible, so it's not likely to be a steal. Which all adds up to a solid signing.

unless you want to argue that the Padres really wanted Long and only took Ramon to get the deal done

Well, one could argue that, but one would be dead wrong. They wanted Ramon and took Long just to get the deal done (and equalize salaries some, since Kotsay was owed more than Hernandez).

Two years or so back, it looked like Hernandez might not really develop that much, and that the contract wasn't all that great. I don't think that's the case anymore; he's one of the top 6-10 catchers in baseball.

Well, one could argue that, but one would be dead wrong.

I guess you didn't see my tongue in my cheek. Ah! there it is!