Astros - Acquired Jennings
Houston Astros - Acquired P Jason Jennings from the Colorado Rockies for P Jason Hirsh, OF Willy Taveras and P Taylor Buchholz.
I would’ve liked this trade better for the Rockies if they hadn’t picked up Taveras - his BA and OBP are just not-terrible-enough that he’ll look marginally useful for the Rockies and with his defensive reputation, which seems to have been earned solely by virtue of him being fast and a bad hitter, will make him look like a solution to the Rockies and eventually, some other stupid team. Coors is no longer the Best Hitters Park Ever, but it’s still a decent hitters park and increases hits of all types, not just homers. I could start writing the entry for the Taveras free agent signing now and open it up come December 2010, I think.
Hirsh, of course, is the prize of this trade. He’s a good pitching prospect, though not on the Hughes/Bailey level and Buchholz has potential, if some injury concerns, but I’m not sure I’d do this if I were the Rockies. You have a starting pitcher who can survive in Coors and you’re going to cash him in and start over? Kind of risky.
I think this works for the Astros. The Lee signing is no longer needlessly blocking their young outfielders, the only thing the farm system has to offer. Taveras was simply in the way - getting another real bat into the outfield is very important when you’re going from Clemens/Pettitte to Jennings/Williams. The Astros would be smart to get Jennings signed to a long-term contract as soon as possible. After all, he’ll cost some dough now and when was the last pitcher to have his stock fall after leaving Coors? The Astros will not be able to replace Jennings easily.
2007 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Taveras 549 98 167 23 4 4 36 37 86 35 .304 .353 .383
2007 ZiPS Projections
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Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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Buchholz 7 9 26 22 130 137 70 20 48 85 4.85
Jennings 10 10 29 29 192 187 89 19 75 131 4.17
Hirsh 10 12 30 30 167 170 90 21 75 119 4.85
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 13, 2006 at 02:56 PM |
55 comment(s)
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1. Oriole Tragic is totally awesome in the postseason Posted: December 13, 2006 at 03:53 PM (#2259972)I meant Britton, the guy they sent to NYY for Wright.
That said, he could've just shopped Taveras individually instead of taking 1 year and the right of first refusal to pay Jason Jennings a lot of money for 6 years of Jason Hirsh.
Who are the Astros playing in CF now?
Theres been some talk of Jason Lane playing center too, but I think everyone remembers the Craig Biggio "experiment" pretty well, and doubt that will last.
I think we're seeing the 4th-OF stage of his career. I think the starting OF stage only lasta bout two years anyway, no?
I would have been OK with C-Pat and Britton for Jennings. Not ecstatic, but OK. Maybe the O's then could have gotten Church away from the Nats and stuck him in CF.
I'll stop now.
Didn't all the Rockies starters have HR/F rates at or below league average last year? Seems a little suspicious... And how will Jennings' 7% HR/F translate to the Juice Box? (Answer: Not well.)
Hunter Pence looks like the CF to me.
Ummm.... Maybe? (How's that for decisiveness?) Humidor or no, I'll not quite sure what to make of Colorado's park-factor this year, and how that it translate to Minute Maid.
No, it's probably going to be Burke.
-- MWE
The two million bump THIS year, plus the security through 2011 might make him bite and pass up free agency.
If guys like Pettitte and Zito are worth 16 million or more in this market, it sure would seem like a good idea to enter these negotiations right now, instead of waiting. Maybe that would look to anxious, but they could sell it as "committed".
How much do you guys think it would take to extend Jenning right now? Am I estimating too low? How high would you go?
And even if he does turn into Juan Pierre, don't you think that will make him attractive as trade bait to some tools obsessed GM looking for speed at the top of his lineup?
And pretty poorly in 2005 (and 2006 was above-average, but hardly Erstadian). And despite the improvement in his walk-rate from terrible to a bit less terrible, he was actually worse offensively in 2006 than he was in 2005. When we're talking a guy 4 or 5 runs above replacement level offensively, I want serious defense before I care about him.
If you actually watch Taveras play, it's pretty obvious that he's improved defensively. He's always had a good arm and pretty good range, but in '05 he had the annoying habit that only popped up occasionally in '06 to come out of nowhere to catch up to a flyball, only to have it bounce out of his glove. Also, for some reason in the first half-to-100-games of '05 he forgot how to judge a flyball completely at times. He literally looked more lost in the OF than any major leaguer I had ever seen (and as an Astros fan I've seen Biggio, Daryle Ward, and Mike Lamb try of play the OF). But he worked that out. I consider him a good OF right now. As a hitter, he's still better when he gets fooled, sticks his butt out, chops it somewhere, and beats it out. When he's hot (like during the 30-game hit streak last year), he'll hit looping liners into right center a lot, and he bunts effectively. It's really not that he has no power (one of his HR his rookie year was one of the biggest of the year by an Astro); he just can't make solid contact, and a lot of time it works for him. He's also a very bad basestealer, for his speed. His numbers don't look as bad, because he's learned to go when there's no way he'll get caught. But if I needed a clutch steal, I would have rather had Burke or Bruntlett out there.
The problem with Buchholz is that he's a mental midget who doesn't know how to not throw a thigh-high fastball down the middle when things start to go bad, which is why he has 2-inning, 11-run outings.
I really wish they could have traded someone other than Hirsh in this deal. He had a hard time learning that major leaguers don't swing through high 92-mph fastballs as often as AAA hitters, but his minor league record is too good (in my estimation) to trade him away so quickly, along with others, to get Jason Jennings.
Good starting OF? I missed that completely.
Tavares probably won't benefit much from Coors field. Doesn't he get more bunt and infield hits than anyone in baseball? Coors won't help with those. It didn't help Pierre either.
It's true that most managers will have him bat leadoff and that diminishes his value, unless he makes a leap forward offensively.
The one good thing about Taveras is that he's still pretty young, will be 25 next season, so the Rockies should get the most valuable chunk of his career, such as it is.
The trade completely hinges on two things:
From the Rockies perspective: How well Hirsh's stuff translates to the majors. If it translates as well as a typical pitcher then, this is a great move for them.
From the Astros perspective: If they can lock up the 28 year old Jennings to a long term contract, at or below the market rate. As the NL central looks winnable it makes sense for the Astros to be resistant to going into the season with 3 young pitchers in the rotation. As it stands now, they look like a much better bet.
Pence will be the CF in RR at the start of the year in my best estimation. Purpura even made the comment that Taveras was likely to be "pushed" from CF by Pence eventually.
I think Jennings will be better than Pettitte next year.
It's also no coincidence that Jennings is from Texas.
I like Hirsh, though, but you are talking about the number five starter this year and the number three next year, maybe.
Taveras was wildly overrated and frankly clearing up the outfield works perfect, so long as it doesn't mean more Jason Lane.
I truly believe that this is because he was hitting the ball BETTER. Taveras is so far from being an actual good hitter, it benefits him more to make worse contact. He can beat out a slow roller to the left side, but a hard grounder to short is an out.
And if you're going to give up a 0-3 pitcher with an excellent chance to be at least average during his 0-3 years, you'd better get back either a top-of-the-line player, or someone who you can control for more than one year.
I would not have dealt Hirsh straight up for Jennings. And while Taveras and Buchholz aren't use pieces, their inclusion just adds to the pain for the Astros (if for no other reason than they cannot be included in a different trade).
Wouldn't it have been a lot easier to pay Andy Pettitte an additional $2 mil?
Why are people staying this? It was the player option not the 2 million dollars.
Do you mean that it's not as good as Coors of years' past, or do you mean that there's another park that's better? If so, which one?
IIRC, Chase is now the most hitter-ific park.
If I were you, I would listen to Vaux and not me.
Old-fashioned Pachinko Palace Coors.
And anyone who replies with "Lake Front Park" totally gets whomped next time I see them.
Bad news: the Astros get a power-sinker righty to pitch in front of Craig Biggio....
I don't see much difference between Taveras and Juan Pierre except age; and Pierre got a 5/45 million dollar deal. Hirsh is probably not going to be an ace but is perhaps one of the best bets
So four years of a below market paid Taveras, six of a below market Hirsh, and Bucholz-not quite a boondoggle, for one year of Jennings. Terrible. I wouldn't have done Hirsh straight up for him.
Do you have similar issues with Hirsh's AAA numbers? 7.73K/9, but only 94 H and 5 HR in 137 IP. Those numbers don't seem to go together.
What is Hirsh like, scout-wise. Sickels describes him as someone who now consistently hits 90-93 with the fb and has a "plus slider."
Does he project as well as Jeff Francis did (who is much different stuff-wise, but seemed like a more-heralded prospect)?
Sigh. Purpura has been sending out not so subtle messages all offseason that Ensberg will be the third baseman next year and that he will most likely bounce back. I don't know where the notion started that the Astros are drastically trying to rid themselves of Ensberg but it seems widespread.
I'd say that's pretty accurate from what I saw at the ML level from him. He's more often on the low side of that though. 90-91 and occasionally at around 94. The 6'8 frame should make it tougher for hitters to pick the ball up though. His slider was his main strikeout pitch but his control of his slider was horrendous. The other secondary stuff (change, curve) was weak. I think he has a decent shot at being a middle of the rotation guy, but his upside isn't all that high. I just got the feeling (for better or worse) that the Astros were never big on Hirsh. His attitude problems didn't help either.
Buchholz is the complete opposite. He has outstanding stuff. Low to mid 90s fastball, plus curve, plus slider, good changeup. The results have not measured up with the stuff mainly becuase he fell apart whenever he got runners on base last year. He has had injury issues that were enough to cause the White Sox to nix the Garland deal. I would say he has less of a chance to last as a ML pitcher than Hirsh, but he has a higher upside.
bruntlett can back him up. i have watched bruntlett play center a few times and he was surprisingly good. actually i thought he was better in center than he is at ss. and he is supposed to be a good fielding infielder.
pence has not played center before. a few guys i talked to in corpus who go to hooks games said that pence is not a good fielder. so we will have to see how he does in round rock.
back on willy and his hitting - he does best when he deliberately tries to get infield hits. he is terrible at getting good clean hits thru the 5.5 hole and to right. i think that after he hit those long doubles in the series last year, he decided to try to keep hitting like that and he got worse. and for some reason he just can't lay down a bunt for a squeeze. or hit with MOB.
- as for ensberg, the FANS drastically underrate him. best i can tell, most fans want him gone and replaced with aubrey huff. i am NOT joking. but i have heard ALL the columnists say that we need to "solve third base" for next year. i would not be even a little bit surprised if the stros WERE shopping ensberg. who is a pretty darn good fielder, too.
hirsh i watched all 9 of his starts. it ain't the speed it's the motion. there is none. he better learn to locate that FB in colorado is all i can say. buchholz has much much better stuff. ELECTRIC. seriously. he was another guy who was hurt who didn't tell anyone last year. (finger blister or tendon or something...)
i am not understanding all ths jennings extension talk. WHY does everyone think he is that freaking stupid? he's watching gil freaking meche get 55 mil for FIVE years. WHY is he gonna pass up free agency and sign a FOUR year contract for only 10 or 12 mill a year? cmon. jennings wouldn't sign an extension with the rockies - said he wanted to go to FA. so WHY would he sign one with houston?
Keep in mind that minor league numbers are just as good at predicting future performance as major league numbers, once you account for league and park effects; as long as the numbers aren't being put up by a 28 year old in his fourth season at AAA.
Papura can say whatever he wants. The fact is is that the Astros don't understand how good Ensberg is.
Pence did play some center last year, though mostly right, and did pretty well.
the rockies definitely have a point. willy is VERY good chasing down deep fly balls. VERY good
astro-bonilla
i agree with you 100% about mo ensberg. i personally have thought for a LONG time that the astros organization are stupid about mo. i wrote this at least a few times in my column. i think it got something to do with the hold up back in 2000 - they got rid of all the other guys who were there within a year. best i can tell they ALWAYS been looking for an excuse to bench him, platoon him. i am not surprised he tried to keep injuries to his own self and play hurt anyhow.
best i can tell most fans are mad at him because he won't swing at pitches out of the strike zone. and hasn't nobody ever explained to me why that is a good thing to do because almost no pitches out of the strike zone are actually hit let alone go for hits
In '04 he lost his playing time because he was awful for most of the year. He didn't hit a homer the entire first half and he covered up an injury the entire year. His defense was awful in '04 too. He hit .275/.330/.411 which was worse than what Lamb hit and still received the full time job going into the playoffs and the full time job in '05. In '06 he was replaced first because he went on the DL. He still played against LHP. Huff was quite simply a better option against RHP last year at 3b.
two players who are worth twenty runs less per 150 games then Ensberg just on defense.
Huff sure as hell wasn't.
The fact is is that the Astros don't understand how good Ensberg is.
The fact is you have made up what the Astros stance is on Ensberg and run with it.
He had a .463 slugging percentage last year as well.
He had a .335 slugging percentage after May. If he continues that into next year do you think pitchers are going to start challenging him more often?
shows that the Astros have no clue
Again. Absurd arrogance. How many straight winning seasons does it take to realize they might have a ####### clue what they're doing?
an absurd overestimation of the importance and usefulness of batting average as a stat is the only way to come ot the conclusion that Ensberg needs to bounce back.
Which is why Ensberg has the job going into the next year over a guy who out hit him by 70+ points last year?
The fans are ridiculous, but they are not mad because he doesn't swing at pitches out of the strike zone. There could have been runners on 2nd and 3rd last year and Ensberg would take a fastball right down the middle on a 3-1 count without flinching. There were times last year when I thought he was just taking because he knew his batspeed wasn't there.
The talk shows are the worst. They think Ensberg is Purpura/Garner's love child and "can't believe" he hasn't been released yet.
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