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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Astros - Acquired Tejada

Houston Astros - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles for P Troy Patton, OF Luke Scott,

3B Mike Costanzo, P Matt Albers, and P Dennis Sarfate.

I have to give credit where credit is due and I thought that the Orioles would get a lot less than they did for Tejada.  As

long as teams were concerned about Tejada’s ability to play SS, the Orioles had no chance to get a huge sack of prospects

because after a down season (relatively), he’s a little better than average at 3rd rather than a star shortstop.  No,

Tejada’s not a Gold Glover, but he’s just as mediocre at he’s been for years, not a Jeteresque sieve.  It’s a better trade

for the Astros if they do decide to non-tender Everett.  I have to admit being pretty worried when I saw those

Tejada-for-Everett-and-Burke rumors a few weeks ago.

Patton should probably spend most of the year at Norfolk and with Tejada being nowhere near as popular as Roberts in

Baltimore, the Orioles won’t feel quite the same pressure to show off what they got as they would have if this was a Roberts

trade.  Luke Scott instantly becomes one of the team’s best hitters (his 119 OPS+ in 2007 would have been 2nd on the O’s) and

the other three mainly provide depth.  Costanzo’s a whiffy power 3B with a decent glove who’s at least a year or two away

from being a role player, Albers probably isn’t the worst #5 starter in the world and still young enough to improve somewhat

and Sarfate actually might be a useful swing man when injuries hit.

For the Astros, the good news is that they get Miguel Tejada.  He’ll be a plus over Wigginton at 3rd or a plus over Everett

at SS.  The bad news for the Astros is that they’re still not really in contention and poor Miguel Tejada goes from the AL

Astros to the NL Orioles.  The depth issue is pretty serious now as Chris Burke is essentially Plans B-through-E at every

position or role the Astros have.  Hell, if a pitcher goes down, Burke might have to be Plan B there also.  And when a lot of

the Plan A’s are less than ideal, it’s a serious concern.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Miguel Tejada
——————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection   584 77 177 31 2 19 89 43 72   3 .303 .359 .461   111
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  608 95 200 38 3 24 102 56 68   7 .329 .394 .520   135
Pes. (15%)  536 59 149 24 0 13 65 30 75   0 .278 .320 .396   85
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Rich Aurilia, Alan Trammell

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Mike Costanzo
——————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection   475 38 103 21 1 13 52 43 144   0 .218 .292 .346   67
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  531 58 127 29 2 20 77 53 161   4 .239 .317 .414   91
Pes. (15%)  456 36   92 19 0 11 49 36 153   0 .202 .264 .316   52  
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Clete Boyer, Dave Roberts

2008 ZiPS Projection - Luke Scott
——————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection   431 60 109 26 4 20 98 54 97   3 .252 .340 .471   111  
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  473 72 139 33 5 25 113 71 84   5 .294 .392 .543   143
Pes. (15%)  390 42   93 19 2 12 52 48 91   0 .238 .324 .390   87
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Trot Nixon, Jeromy Burnitz

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Troy Patton
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 7 13 27 26 152 176   98 25 66 85 5.80   79
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 10 13 30 29 175 185   94 24 61 113 4.83   95
Pes. (15%)  4 13 23 23 121 159   97 26 61 49 7.21   63
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Bob Kipper, Slick Castleman

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Matt Albers
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 6 12 31 25 155 182 100 23 74 83 5.81   79
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 10 11 39 29 185 194   96 19 82 116 4.67   98
Pes. (15%)  4 13 30 23 129 167 100 24 75 57 6.98   65
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Losing Pitcher Mulcahy, Jim Slaton

 

2008 ZiPS Projection - Dennis Sarfate
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 6   9 44 14 119 129   71 15 64 75 5.37   85
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  9   7 48 15 135 131   63 12 62 106 4.20   109
Pes. (15%)  3   9 36 11   94 115   67 15 55 54 6.41   71
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Pete Broberg, Eli Grba

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:01 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:16 PM (#2642893)
It'd be more fun if Slick Castleman were actually Patton's name instead of just a comp.


I guess this is the first big step in the decade-overdue rebuild. Hopefully we'll look back upon this as the move that started to turn things around. I know, that's a big hope, but that's our lot I guess.
   2. DKDC Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:18 PM (#2642900)
I love the symmetry of Tejada and Scott both being 111 OPS+ players.

So if the Orioles can sign a 74 OPS+ shortstop (like say, Adam Everett) to replace Payton's 74 OPS+ in LF, they are no worse off than last year.

But they'll be 4 prospects and $25MM richer.
   3. Loren F. Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:27 PM (#2642912)
I think Tejada is the surer bet to put up an OPS+ of 111. Scott showed some pop in the minors, but he'll be 30 and doesn't have much of a major-league track record.
   4. Mayor Blomberg Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:40 PM (#2642937)
"Losing Pitcher Mulcahy"? Hell of a nickname.
   5. Urban Faber Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:54 PM (#2642974)
I wonder if anyone has ever had ##### Tebeau as a top comp.
   6. Loren F. Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:10 AM (#2643004)
"Losing Pitcher Mulcahy"? Hell of a nickname.

Looking him up on BB-Ref, it is clear how he came by that nickname. Here was a starter/reliever of the 1930s-1940s who put up losing seasons in 7 out of 8 years, and led the league in losses twice. Despite being an all-star in 1940, he had a total record of 45-89 in 1,161.7 innings, with a career ERA+ of 90. He was good enough to pitch over 1,000 innings, but kept losing.

We need more honest nicknames like that. "Overrated" Zito, "Inconsistent" Pettitte, and "Living off that one year" Willis would be great nicknames, for instance.
   7. Richard Posted: December 13, 2007 at 04:42 AM (#2643283)
"Losing Pitcher Mulcahy"? Hell of a nickname.

That's what you get for pitching for the Phillies at that time.

Apropos of nothing, he was the first major league regular drafted in WWII and the Sporting News reported that he said "My losing streak is over for the duration...I am on a winning team now."
   8. Walt Davis Posted: December 13, 2007 at 05:28 AM (#2643341)
Dan, since you're adding cool stuff like OPS+ and ERA+ to the ZIPS profiles, how about age?

And can you somewhere give us the OPS+ on the Guillen and Hunter signings?
   9. AROM Posted: December 13, 2007 at 05:31 AM (#2643345)
Ok line for Scott, nothing great, but 98 RBI in only 431 at bats?

Who's he driving in?
   10. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:03 AM (#2643378)
Does Baltimore have a plan B for shortstop in 2008?
   11. bibigon Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:09 AM (#2643381)
Dan, since you're adding cool stuff like OPS+ and ERA+ to the ZIPS profiles, how about age?


I think Marcel can probably predict a player's age as well as ZiPS can, so it's not clear what that would add.
   12. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:09 AM (#2643382)
Fearless prediction: Luke Scott will not be an Oriole come July 31st.
   13. base ball chick Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:13 AM (#2643384)
loren,

scott has been VERY good in the majors - he started of the year lousy in 05, rooled in 06 and SHOULD have been the full time RF in 07 but for some reason they already disliked him...

he's darn good and i'm surprised dan
no - i'm NOT surprised dan only got him down for 111 OPS+
   14. DKDC Posted: December 13, 2007 at 04:13 PM (#2643635)
How badass would a Scott/Mench platoon be?

Is there a better leftfielder in the American League than a platoon of those two?
   15. Valentine Posted: December 14, 2007 at 12:21 AM (#2644952)
Manny Ramirez DEFINES "badass", no?
   16. sunnyday2 Posted: December 14, 2007 at 03:28 AM (#2645164)
Twin Cities media report that the Twins have signed Adam Everett. Can anybody confirm?
   17. sunnyday2 Posted: December 14, 2007 at 03:31 AM (#2645166)
OK never mind I found it. On any ordinary day, that would rate a thread, no?
   18. St.Philly Posted: December 14, 2007 at 03:34 AM (#2645167)
OK never mind I found it. On any ordinary day, that would rate a thread, no?


And it did:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/rosenthal_sources_twins_everett_reach_deal/

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