Astros - Acquired Tejada
Houston Astros - Acquired SS Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles for P Troy Patton, OF Luke Scott,
3B Mike Costanzo, P Matt Albers, and P Dennis Sarfate.
I have to give credit where credit is due and I thought that the Orioles would get a lot less than they did for Tejada. As
long as teams were concerned about Tejada’s ability to play SS, the Orioles had no chance to get a huge sack of prospects
because after a down season (relatively), he’s a little better than average at 3rd rather than a star shortstop. No,
Tejada’s not a Gold Glover, but he’s just as mediocre at he’s been for years, not a Jeteresque sieve. It’s a better trade
for the Astros if they do decide to non-tender Everett. I have to admit being pretty worried when I saw those
Tejada-for-Everett-and-Burke rumors a few weeks ago.
Patton should probably spend most of the year at Norfolk and with Tejada being nowhere near as popular as Roberts in
Baltimore, the Orioles won’t feel quite the same pressure to show off what they got as they would have if this was a Roberts
trade. Luke Scott instantly becomes one of the team’s best hitters (his 119 OPS+ in 2007 would have been 2nd on the O’s) and
the other three mainly provide depth. Costanzo’s a whiffy power 3B with a decent glove who’s at least a year or two away
from being a role player, Albers probably isn’t the worst #5 starter in the world and still young enough to improve somewhat
and Sarfate actually might be a useful swing man when injuries hit.
For the Astros, the good news is that they get Miguel Tejada. He’ll be a plus over Wigginton at 3rd or a plus over Everett
at SS. The bad news for the Astros is that they’re still not really in contention and poor Miguel Tejada goes from the AL
Astros to the NL Orioles. The depth issue is pretty serious now as Chris Burke is essentially Plans B-through-E at every
position or role the Astros have. Hell, if a pitcher goes down, Burke might have to be Plan B there also. And when a lot of
the Plan A’s are less than ideal, it’s a serious concern.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Miguel Tejada
——————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection 584 77 177 31 2 19 89 43 72 3 .303 .359 .461 111
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 608 95 200 38 3 24 102 56 68 7 .329 .394 .520 135
Pes. (15%) 536 59 149 24 0 13 65 30 75 0 .278 .320 .396 85
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Rich Aurilia, Alan Trammell
2008 ZiPS Projection - Mike Costanzo
——————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection 475 38 103 21 1 13 52 43 144 0 .218 .292 .346 67
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 531 58 127 29 2 20 77 53 161 4 .239 .317 .414 91
Pes. (15%) 456 36 92 19 0 11 49 36 153 0 .202 .264 .316 52
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Clete Boyer, Dave Roberts
2008 ZiPS Projection - Luke Scott
——————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
——————————————————————————————————————-
Projection 431 60 109 26 4 20 98 54 97 3 .252 .340 .471 111
——————————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 473 72 139 33 5 25 113 71 84 5 .294 .392 .543 143
Pes. (15%) 390 42 93 19 2 12 52 48 91 0 .238 .324 .390 87
——————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Trot Nixon, Jeromy Burnitz
2008 ZiPS Projection - Troy Patton
————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 7 13 27 26 152 176 98 25 66 85 5.80 79
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 10 13 30 29 175 185 94 24 61 113 4.83 95
Pes. (15%) 4 13 23 23 121 159 97 26 61 49 7.21 63
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Bob Kipper, Slick Castleman
2008 ZiPS Projection - Matt Albers
————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 6 12 31 25 155 182 100 23 74 83 5.81 79
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 10 11 39 29 185 194 96 19 82 116 4.67 98
Pes. (15%) 4 13 30 23 129 167 100 24 75 57 6.98 65
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Losing Pitcher Mulcahy, Jim Slaton
2008 ZiPS Projection - Dennis Sarfate
————————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
Projection 6 9 44 14 119 129 71 15 64 75 5.37 85
————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 9 7 48 15 135 131 63 12 62 106 4.20 109
Pes. (15%) 3 9 36 11 94 115 67 15 55 54 6.41 71
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps: Pete Broberg, Eli Grba
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 12, 2007 at 09:01 PM |
18 comment(s)
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1. Dingbat_CharlieI guess this is the first big step in the decade-overdue rebuild. Hopefully we'll look back upon this as the move that started to turn things around. I know, that's a big hope, but that's our lot I guess.
So if the Orioles can sign a 74 OPS+ shortstop (like say, Adam Everett) to replace Payton's 74 OPS+ in LF, they are no worse off than last year.
But they'll be 4 prospects and $25MM richer.
Looking him up on BB-Ref, it is clear how he came by that nickname. Here was a starter/reliever of the 1930s-1940s who put up losing seasons in 7 out of 8 years, and led the league in losses twice. Despite being an all-star in 1940, he had a total record of 45-89 in 1,161.7 innings, with a career ERA+ of 90. He was good enough to pitch over 1,000 innings, but kept losing.
We need more honest nicknames like that. "Overrated" Zito, "Inconsistent" Pettitte, and "Living off that one year" Willis would be great nicknames, for instance.
That's what you get for pitching for the Phillies at that time.
Apropos of nothing, he was the first major league regular drafted in WWII and the Sporting News reported that he said "My losing streak is over for the duration...I am on a winning team now."
And can you somewhere give us the OPS+ on the Guillen and Hunter signings?
Who's he driving in?
I think Marcel can probably predict a player's age as well as ZiPS can, so it's not clear what that would add.
scott has been VERY good in the majors - he started of the year lousy in 05, rooled in 06 and SHOULD have been the full time RF in 07 but for some reason they already disliked him...
he's darn good and i'm surprised dan
no - i'm NOT surprised dan only got him down for 111 OPS+
Is there a better leftfielder in the American League than a platoon of those two?
And it did:
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/rosenthal_sources_twins_everett_reach_deal/
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