Astros - Signed Pudge
Houston Astros - Signed C Ivan Rodriguez to a 1-year contract worth $1.5 million.
Whew! It’s nice to get back to actually analyzing things after a crazier-than-usual February-March ZIPS Frenzy.
$1.5 million is a good deal for a league-averageish catcher (while that figure isn’t a final official number, I doubt it’ll vary that much). That presents a sizable improvement as 2009 Pudge will be the best full-time catcher the team has had since Biggio.
The only real problem with the signing is the team that signed Rodriguez. Realistically, the Astros are a team that’s going to fight for 4th-place with the Reds. The team really needed to see what they have in Towles or Quintero (mostly the former), not so much see if they can win the Second Division Chili Cookoff with the Queen City. Even Richard Justice knows the team isn’t very good, even if he doesn’t quite realize it yet:
To show you there are two sides to every story, there are plenty of reasons for optimism, too. The Astros will go as far as their starting pitching takes them, and, at the moment, a rotation that includes Oswalt, Hampton, Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz could be solid.
A rotation that includes Hampton, Moehler, and Ortiz as 3/5 of the rotation is damn likely to be solid - the team’s unlikely to hot enough in 2009 to melt ice, let alone liquefy human flesh.
ZiPS Projection - Ivan Rodriguez (C)
—————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————
2009 459 45 130 25 3 10 42 19 86 7 .283 .313 .416 89
—————————————————————————————————————
Top Offensive Comps: Benito Santiago, Al Todd, Terry STeinbach
ODDIBE
Offense %
Top Quintile 5
2nd Quintile 26
Mid Quintile 30
4th Quintile 28
Low Quintile 11
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
160+ 0 .400+ 0 10+ 2 200+ 0
140+ 0 .375+ 1 5+ 26 150+ 4
130+ 0 .350+ 7
120+ 1 .325+ 33 2B %
110+ 7 .300+ 71 45+ 0
100+ 21 30+ 21
90+ 49
80+ 78
60+ 95
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
.350+ 0 .550+ 0 50+ 0 70+ 0
.325+ 4 .500+ 2 40+ 0 50+ 0
.300+ 24 .450+ 16 30+ 0 30+ 0
.275+ 62 .400+ 67 20+ 2 10+ 23
.250+ 91 .350+ 99 10+ 49
(Based on Projected PA)
Dan Szymborski
Posted: March 17, 2009 at 12:46 AM |
12 comment(s)
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1. Bitter Calculus Instructor Posted: March 17, 2009 at 01:04 AM (#3105161)Could you put up a TO for Manny? I know it's a bit late...
i seriously doubt he will EVER agree to give a bunch of rookies a chance, seeing as how the crappy vets STILL won't get the team out of 4th.
he is positive he won't see as many tickets with a bunch of rooks and the team in 4th as he will with a bunch of crappy vets and the team in 4th and then getting someone at the deadline just to show that the astros will make another miracle run.
the dude only aims for the wild card and 85-87 wins at most
richard justice knows darn well this is a lousy team. he ain't that dumb and actually, when he isn't bulshtting, he is pretty darn smart
I also think that the Astros believe (and rightly so) that neither Quintero nor Towles is the long-term solution, with both Max Sapp (hoping he recovers from his serious illness) and Jason Castro representing much more upside. I think they also believe that Castro may even be ready to go by mid-2010. In which case, there is no reason to get too comfortable with either Quintero or Towles. In which case, Pudge represents a very nice placeholder, giving the Astros more leeway for patience and maybe a better mentor for the younger arms who may filter into the pitching staff this year.
He'll be 25 this year, if not now, when?
Yes he was horrible in 171 PAs in 2008. (Due largely to an utterly absurd .157 BABIP)
He's hit in the minors.
He hit in his cup of joe in 2007.
Remove May 2008 from his career line and he's actually not bad for a catcher, but .094/.200/.113 in 60 PAs is a killer when you have only 215 PAs total.
It's still possible that May 2008 is for Towles what May 2007 was for Dionar Navarro...
Why is a complete non-prospect such as Quintero even being discussed?
What evidence is there that Castro has more upside than Towles?
WRT Sapp, I don't want to sound mean, but he was playing poorly even before he got sick- I read more than a few articles saying he was a busted pick - before the meningitis.
I weep over the memory of Mitch Meluskey.
I also think that the Astros believe (and rightly so) that neither Quintero nor Towles is the long-term solution, with both Max Sapp (hoping he recovers from his serious illness) and Jason Castro representing much more upside.
Why is a complete non-prospect such as Quintero even being discussed?
- got no idea at all. he has got to be about the worst catcher i have ever seen. brad ausmus hit better. and quintero is such a bad receiver that several pitchers have refused to throw to him.
What evidence is there that Castro has more upside than Towles?
- castro was a number 1 pick and towles was not
but the real reason is that it is more than obvious that the astros organization don't want towles and because they want someone in AAA, won't trade the poor guy neither
WRT Sapp, I don't want to sound mean, but he was playing poorly even before he got sick- I read more than a few articles saying he was a busted pick - before the meningitis.
- you are correct
sapp isn't that old, but he wasn't hitting worth spit in rookie league
The Astros were hoping that Towles or Palmisano (a rule 5 catcher) would make a case for the big league roster this spring...but they both were cold as ice. I think that the lack of spark from the young catchers led to the Pudge signing. Personally, I haven't given up on Towles, but he may be a guy who takes a while to get to the big leagues. My hope is that he catches fire in AAA and gets called up to share catching chores with I-Rod. Towles seems to be putting too much pressure on himself, and maybe a later call up might be a better situation. By the way, I don't see anything wrong with Towles' defensive skills. He is unusually agile for a catcher, and does a good job blocking pitches. It seemed like LaRussa got in Towles' head early last season when Pujols ran him over at the plate when the ball was still on the way from the outfield. LaRussa criticized Towles, suggesting he had a lot to learn. The whole brouhaha was overplayed in the media, but Towles seemed to lose confidence after that.
What about the mad leadership skillz of Brad Awesomeus?
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