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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Astros - Signed Wilson

Houston Astros - Signed OF Preston Wilson to a 1-year, $4 million contract with 3 club options.

This is quite the odd deal - when was the last time you saw a deal structured like this?  A lot of the outfield contracts this winter tend to be puzzling - I much rather have Rondell White and Preston Wilson than Jeromy Burnitz and Jacque Jones, but it’s the latter group that got the better deals.  There has been little information made available as to how much the club options are for, but it’s probably not very relevant since the Astros will be able to decide on a year-by-year basis if he’s worth the price.  Reminds me of one of those “Bob Quarterback signs a 6-year-deal worth $100 million!” NFL signings in which Bob makes a million the first 3 years and then is due an optional $75 million roster bonus if he’s still on the team for the fourth year.

It’s too early to tell how Wilson will fit in the Astro outfield.  They’re still going to give Jeff Bagwell every shot to play at 1st if he can, which would keep Berkman in the outfield and make either Lane or Wilson the odd man out.  Assuming they keep Taveras as his name has come up occasionally in recent weeks in trade rumors (this would be a pretty good idea if they can get someone actually good instead of the pretend-good Taveras take).  Preston Wilson was never really as good a player as a lot of people thought after 2003, but he’s a servicable fill-in/4th outfielder.

2006 ZiPS Projection - Preston Wilson
————————————————————————————-
AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
————————————————————————————-
506 64 127 26 1 25 74 47 136   7 .251 .320 .455
————————————————————————————-

Dan Szymborski Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:06 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. FDR Jones Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#1805996)
hey, a black dude plays for houston now. he's the new jackie (or kerry) robinson.
   2. rollers333 Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:41 PM (#1806020)
According to ESPN.com Wilson gets a 1 year $4 million dollar deal with a team option for 3 years and $24 million, or a $500,000 buyout...

This sounds like an interesting new idea for contract offers, one guaranteed year and then prove you're worth more.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:41 PM (#1806021)
Bagpipes is done playing 1b. Especially now that he throws like a girl... eh, like Victor Zambrano

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2006/01/latest_astros_b.html
   4. FredUD Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#1806026)
Apparently it's only 1 option, but for 3 years @ $8m per year with a $500k buyout. A very strange contract indeed.

I'm a bit suprised by the projections. I don't see him stealing 7 bags or hitting for that low of an OPS. I see it being ~25-35 points higher.
   5. FredUD Posted: January 04, 2006 at 08:46 PM (#1806036)
levski - he's thrown like an 8 year old girl for a few years now. The lack of being able to lift weights has caught up with him and I agree...he's done.

The reason I like this deal is that Wilson fills most of what an '04 version of Bagwell would have put out there for just $4m. Not a bad replacement cost. If they can only get Andrews to tell Bags he done and then go on the 60-day DL to start the insurance process, I believe they could make a deal pretty quickly for a guy like Abreu.
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: January 04, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#1806062)
Bagpipes should just Movaughn himself for the next couple of years.
   7. Boof Bonser Tree Posted: January 04, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#1806089)
Gold Star for using Movaughn as a verb.
   8. The Ghost of Archi Cianfrocco Posted: January 04, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#1806336)
Bagwell should eat his weight in ding-dongs every 12 months?
... frequent a shady nightclub in Rhode Island every couple of weeks?
... open a chain of carwashes?

What?
   9. I Am Not a Number Posted: January 05, 2006 at 03:50 AM (#1806824)
What kind of numbers would Wilson have to put up to convince the Astros to exercise the 3-year, $24M extension?

Say, by some miracle, he puts up a 280/340/520 in 150 games? Would that convince them? Should it?

I just can't see the point of the potential extension. I can't see the point of wasting the synaptic energy to even formulate such a contract. Was an intern involved? What's the over/under on the probability it gets exercised? 0.1%?

Maybe the Astros are hoping for Wilson to go all Luis Gonzalez on them and go nuts in his 30's.
   10. MM1f Posted: January 05, 2006 at 03:57 AM (#1806837)
Would it be a 3/24 extenstion PAST this 1yr/4mil or would it bring the total package to 3/24?

In other words would it be:
06: 4 mil
(option picked up)
07: 10 mil
08: 10 mil
Total: 3/24

OR

06:4 mil
( 3/24 option)
07-8
08-8
09-8
total 4/28
   11. FredUD Posted: January 05, 2006 at 05:31 AM (#1806981)
the 2nd one.
   12. DCW3 Posted: January 05, 2006 at 07:59 AM (#1807307)
I'm a bit suprised by the projections. I don't see him stealing 7 bags or hitting for that low of an OPS. I see it being ~25-35 points higher.

That projection is pretty much what he's done over the past three years, when you consider park factors. His Mojo projection is .256/.318/.458, almost identical to ZiPS.
   13. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 05, 2006 at 12:15 PM (#1807425)
Not enough glove to be a good centerfielder, not enough bat to be a good corner. The Astros would be complete idiots if they pick up that cascading option package.
   14. FredUD Posted: January 05, 2006 at 03:02 PM (#1807464)
#12 - Then I think it gives too much weight to the 2004 season given his consistant output in other years. If you assume he can put up a 105 OPS+, that should translate into ~.800 OPS in MMP.

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