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The O's have a tremendous disadvantage in that the AL east appears to be now the toughest division in baseball (with all due respect to the AL West). But they really aren't too far from having a good team. Bigbie and Matos are both fine young outfielders. If they sign Vlad, they have an excellent outfied locked in for the next few years. Scrounge up a league-average first baseman and DH, and you've got a heck of a lineup with Vlad and Tejada in the middle. They also have that super-utility guy whose name I can't recall. Of course, they still need more pitching. But they could finish fourth and still be an above-average team relative to the AL as a whole. The down side of that is that they could be an above average team and still finish fourth.
Also, it seems to me that free agents are now reluctant to go to Baltimore. This is just my perception based on their efforts to sign people this winter. So maybe they are in a position where they have to overpay until they get respectable again.
I'm not an Orioles fan so there may be some errors of fact in this analysis.
GN
The O's have a tremendous disadvantage in that the AL east appears to be now the toughest division in baseball (with all due respect to the AL West). But they really aren't too far from having a good team. Bigbie and Matos are both fine young outfielders. If they sign Vlad, they have an excellent outfied locked in for the next few years. Scrounge up a league-average first baseman and DH, and you've got a heck of a lineup with Vlad and Tejada in the middle. They also have that super-utility guy whose name I can't recall. Of course, they still need more pitching. But they could finish fourth and still be an above-average team relative to the AL as a whole. The down side of that is that they could be an above average team and still finish fourth.
Also, it seems to me that free agents are now reluctant to go to Baltimore. This is just my perception based on their efforts to sign people this winter. So maybe they are in a position where they have to overpay until they get respectable again.
I'm not an Orioles fan so there may be some errors of fact in this analysis.
GN
Not to speak for Zen Bitz, but I thinkthe "part-time catcher/PH" comment was directed at Santiago. Since Santiago is pretty horrid defensively, and seems to break down over the course of a season, I don't think it's such a terrible suggestion.
KC was able to underpay for Randa and Leskanic because they wanted to stay. For whatever reason, Baltimore seems to have to overpay a little to get free agents. I don't mind nearly as much when it's for the player who was fourth-best in the NL last year. With the deferred money in both this and the Tejada contract, it's not nearly as much overpayment anyway.
Why? Because it's in the CBA. :-)
The top 17% of players (in terms of service time) with more than 2 but not 3 years of service time are eligible for arbitration. And that's as long as they have at least a certain number of days of service over 2 (80 days or something). Qualifying players are often referred to as "Super 2's". Note, this doesn't affect their FA clock, they still have to have a full 6 years of service before that kicks in.
Some relatively well known super 2's include Javier Vazquez and, I think, Torii Hunter.
Back to why. If 3 was a firm threshold, teams would just leave their top young players in the minors for a week at the start of the season and players would have to wait almost a full 4 years of service before being arb-eligible. This rule keeps clubs from abusing that option too heavily, though it's still pretty common for a team to wait 2-3 months before bringing up a hot rookie (e.g. Oakland's young pitchers usually hit the majors in June/July) such that teams get 3.5 years out of some players before they're eligible for arbitration.
No, I think such a player would again be eligible for arbitration. Non-tenders only get free agency rights for that specific year. The new team could, of course, non-tender them again.
Correct. Brad Fullmer and Robert Fick were both non-tenders last offseason, and would have been arbitration eligible with the Angels and Braves, respectively, had those clubs not released them both earlier in the offseason.
T :-) ...
Yes, but he is free to hire a good agent and get a huge raise.
"And if the player is a free agent, does he have to accept arbitration? And if he doesn't, what happens? (Is this where draft picks come in?)"
No. See Tejada, Miguel. If he rejects, he cannot re-sign with his former team until March, and if he signs a major-league contract, the signing team gives up a pick (if A or B), the round of which is determined by signing team's draft position and the player's rank (Elias) among other tendered free agents signed by the signing club.
"And if the player is non-tendered after three years of service, signs a one-year contract, is he treated as a free agent after that because he had "free agent" rights? I'd suppose not, but I want to make sure..."
No, he's not, see Ortiz, David, and Cat, F-.
Prooooven...... clossssser.....
And I predict 81 wins if they sign Guerrero, 75 wins if they don't. And fourth place again.
Based on what, exactly?
They could score some runs in 2004 though, particularly if they land Vlad and are willing to give Cust 350+ pa's.
Rogers at 39 might still be able to churn out around 190 IP at league average. Moving from the very hitters friendly Texas to the mildly hitters friendly Minnesota he showed decline. Moving to a pitchers park like Camden Yards could mask his decline even more. Granted his two best comps for his age are Wells and Moyer, so perhaps he's got a little left. Plus Rogers could come very cheap. I'd take him as long as it's a one year deal at under $2M. If it also has an option for year 2 based upon IP, I might be okay with it.
Maddux may cost a lot more and he took an even larger backwards step last year. It might not be a true showing, but he's not the power pitcher of Seaver or Clemens. He's more like a control artist Fergie Jenkins who put together two decent years at 39 and 40, but nothing special.
The O's need pitching. Please, Please don't sign Pudge.
The Orioles look like they are going to sign Ponson, for something in the neighborhood of 3 years/21 million. Maddux and Rogers would be a waste of money, in my opinion.
Let's look at the bright side: The O's look much better now than they did a year ago, both for 2004 and in the future. They lost out on Guerrero, but don't be surprised if they make a strong bid to land Magglio Ordonez next offseason, if he's not traded before then.
Yes, they are still the 4th best team in the division. But they are a much improved team. Let us not forget, they just replaced Deivi Cruz and Brook Fordyce with Miguel Tejada and Javy Lopez. Making this team good again wasn't going to happen overnight, but they are moving in the right direction.
While Surhoff will probably make the team, I'd be shocked if he took away significant playing time from Larry Bigbie. It's not a platoon situation, after all. The new manager and the front office like Bigbie, they played him consistently down the stretch last year and will almost certainly do so again in 2004. My guess would be that Surhoff will play in case of injury to one of the outfielders, or to spell Palmeiro at first base, and that's about it. I'd be very surprised if he got more than 150 PAs next year, and wouldn't be at all surprised if he was released sometime during the season, or traded. He was, after all, only signed to a minor league deal.
Right now, you know that you've got the following guys who will be on the roster, barring a trade:
C Javy Lopez
C Brook Fordyce
The problem is that so does the rest of the AL East. 3rd place is the easiest target for the Orioles but the Blue Jays have the same offense returning but did a nice revamp of the pitching; they didn't add any stars but they got rid of pretty much everyone who wasn't pitching well.
No doubt that the division as a whole is going to be the strongest in baseball. But the Yankees (and to some extent, the Red Sox) seem to have fallen into a "win now" mode, and I wouldn't be surprised if, two or three years, the Yankees fell to fourth place.
And/or they're hamstrung by the impending sale.
How?
Prediction, BJ won't get 100 ABs.
I don't get to sit in on their meetings, but the O's actions are consistent with the following:
1) our minor-league system is weak, especially at the upper levels, especially in hitting;
2) therefore we can't go with a young team yet, unless we want to give the D-Rays and Tigers a run for their money the next 2-3 seasons;
3) fortunately, we're a pretty high revenue team which means we can afford to put a decent team on the field while we remake our minor-league system;
4) so far, plenty of room in the rotation for the young pitchers, who are the young players we really need to sort out right now;
5) it's hard to go from 71 wins to playoff contention, but lord knows we tried to sign enough FA to do it (darn Vlad), but if we can get to 500 and get a little lucky (see Cubs, Marlins), maybe we'll sneak in or at least stay in the hunt long enough to increase fan interest.
If you make reasonable FA signings, this is probably exactly the strategy that a solid revenue team like the O's should follow in these circumstances. The Sufhoff fascination is not healthy, but the only big risk here is Lopez and as far as I know, he's not blocking anyone. Several young-ish position players (Matos, Roberts/Hairston, maybe Bigbie, Gibbons) are getting a shot to establish themselves. Yes, it would be nice to see Cust at DH (probably won't happen) and Bigbie in LF (might).
The O's should be much improved at C, 1B/DH (wherever Palmeiro goes), SS, and 3B (even if Mora goes back to hitting 260) and they may well have under-30 players everywhere else (maybe Surhoff gets hurt). Big steps in the right direction.
No.
The three teams ahead of Baltimore are all too good. The only one that might implode enough for the Orioles to catch them are the Yankees, and that's if everything goes wrong, which it almost certainly won't.
I agree. Here's what I see their rotation being once thinks shake out:
Ponson
is he?
hmmm
Of course, Sidney is not a #1 starter. But he was the best available starter left on the market, in my opinion. This year was just not a great year for free agent pitchers.
While the Orioles may have overpaid, it is safe to say that it doesn't really matter. It's only a three-year deal, and the Orioles aren't anywhere near their spending limit. This isn't the A's we are talking about here. The Orioles desperately needed to put something back into their rotation, so I think in this instance Ponson was worth the investment, even if they did overpay. When you have money, you can afford to overpay. Remember, Guerrero left a 6 year, 78 million deal from the Orioles on the table. That should give you some indication as to how much room they have to spend. And next year, Segui and Cordova's contracts both come off the books, so when you add that into the money they didn't spend on Guerrero, you're talking about plenty of cash to go out and get whatever they need.
Palmeiro is nothing more than a feel-good signing. He gets to end his career (probably) in Baltimore, the fans love him there, and he gives them a better option at first base for a year. I don't see a problem with it. I don't see a problem with Lopez either. I fail to see how paying a catcher who just came off one of the greatest offensive seasons in the history of that position 3 years, 24 million is significantly overspending. Remember, he's replacing Brook Fordyce. Will he repeat 2003? Almost certainly not, but he's better than Fordyce.
Also, Ponson's year last year wasn't significantly different than his past performance. It was right in line with what he had already done. The biggest difference was he was healthy and had better run support.
The Orioles are headed in the right direction, finally.
Age ERA+
It's a good plan. Hopefully Lee Mazzilli won't screw it up.
Do you really think Maddux has 3 years of better than 110 ERA+'s left in him? Or were you thinking "if Maddux would sign for 1-2 years at $7.5 M each?"
I agree with other posters - I think they will go young with the pitchers and I think it's the right move. Dubose held his own last year, Riley looked tremendous in 2 starts vs. Toronto (I realize he's not as good as he looked, but it's promising).
In a dream-world scenario:
~ Loewen develops quickly and becomes the staff ace within 2-3 years.
~ Spots 2-5 become populated with some combo of:
This is way out there, but I suspect the odds are pretty good either the Red Sox or the Yankees take a tumble. They each sport relatively old rosters, with several key players having substantial injury histories. They each have probably a very strong chance of being as good or better than they were last year, so I'd pick them both ahead of the Orioles. But I think there's a solid chance for the Orioles to move ahead of one of them. Put another way, I'd say they've positioned themselves to take advantage of a collapse by one of them, whereas last year it would have done them no good even if it would have happened.
Perhaps the O's are banking on Mora continuing his higher level of production now that his kids are probably sleeping through.
This is something I say to myself first thing every morning, right after, "Where the #### am I?"
If they were paying him like they expected him to keep hitting that way, he'd be making $15 mil/year. They're probably expecting him to hit something like the .258 .352 .419 that ZIPS projects for him, and continue to play good defense at several positions.
Isn't a guy who can play only SS (or 3B or 2B) and hit that well worth $3.5 mil/year? Aaron Boone will make twice that (.253 .323 .432), Alfonzo will too (.271 .357 .410), Cabrera (.286 .343 .430) almost twice).
Mora hits that well and plays SS + several other positions.
His glove would be sub-Cedeno in the outfield, and putting him at first would mean moving Phillips to another position.
NTNGod -- Eventually, in Norfolk. For now, he'd give us some pop off the bench, which we're going to need desperately with Floyd on the DL. Since we're not going to score many runs, the need for an effective PH will be heightened.
The real question is: who else have we got, especialy if we need to fill two spots (if both Floyd and Garcia need time on the DL)? The answer: Nobody.
Baltimore Sun - March 10, 2004
"I hope they want me on the team. I'm out of options," said the 25-year-old New Jersey native who could not be assigned to the minor leagues unless he cleared waivers.
Beatagain moves are such a mixed bag it's hard to tell what's going on there. Maybe one of them is really good and the other is really bad? I dunno.
I've gone over this a bit on Sox Therapy, but Stephens has been really great everywhere he's pitched except MLB. That's not surprising for a 24 year old.
Even in the MLB, his DIPS ERA is under 5.00. He had good Ks, BBs, and hits, but gave up way too many HRs. It hurt him much more than you would expect. He's a good candidate to be a good #3 or #4 guy in the near future, 84 MPH fastball or not.
OTOH, Stephens might be a very effective ML pitcher if given the chance, and losing him for nothing to a division rival is frustrating.
I can't think of who you would compare Stephens to. When did he throw in the 90s and why doesn't he anymore?
Stephens at this point is basically an oft-injured righty soft tosser. He used to throw maybe 90ish, then hurt his neck seriously diving for a ball early in his minor league career. Since then he's hurt his hip and his hand as well. Now he's sporting about an 82mph heater, and I don't see him regaining any velocity. He's fun to watch, has great control, mixes his pitches well, and has a plus curveball at any level. The minors, though, are full of hitters who can't recognize pitches or hit breaking stuff. When the O's brought him up a few years back, he predictably got hit hard.
These are definitely two interesting guys for the stathead community, and I hope they both get a shot somewhere - for curiosity's sake if nothing else. I'm predicting Cust becomes an average DH, but I'd be stunned to see Stephens have much of a career.
You left off the huge K totals and Little G.'s numbers at the same age:
1997 Spokane AA, Age 22: .321/.422/.507 in 268 AB
1. He won't lose his ability to draw walks in the majors.
BTW, it's not that there aren't worse hitters than Cust on the Orioles - it's just that when all is said and done, it's not that bad of a move to dfa him - at this stage there have to be significant doubts if he'll ever be a player who can contribute to a good team. A professional hitter who hasn't power, who can't run, and is a horrible fielder might be a little better than the alternatives at the moment for the Orioles, but not by much.
I'm not sure I buy the argument that his power is a fabrication of the hitters parks he played in. He slugged .521 (albeit very small sample size) with Baltimore, and projects to slug .439 this season by BP.
The point is, Baltimore probably should have found a way to get him 300 abs.
Finally, don't underestimate the value of player-coaches. Surhoff, by all accounts, never stops talking about baseball. He WILL be a manager someday, and a good one. [...] This is a young team, and they need that kind of influence.
There's no piece of trash I've more regretted throwing away than that original Vecsey "Meaty, manly" piece. It was from spring training in 2003, and Vecsey asked non-roster invitee Surhoff if he was being brought in to mentor the young prospects. Surhoff's response was basically "They tried those guys last year and they stunk. I'm here to be the starting left fielder."
--
"OK, kid, now that we've covered badmouthing, what else do you want to learn about being a big-leaguer? Shall we move on to backstabbing?"
There is no reason to waste TWO roster spots on even more coaches, especially when the young guys who need mentoring are 25-27, which isn't that young.
The point though is that Cust is a completely immobile pinch hitter who's better now, and as a bonus is a decade+ younger. I'd also wager you can find freely available talent that can put up 100 OPS+ from the DH position. If the argument is that Surhoff provides some sort of "intangibles," well, you can't win that argument with statistics. As far as his on the field contributions go, he's about league average offense and zero defense.
Cust probably got caught here because of his D. It's hard to add a DH to a roster this time of the year.
No options, and no glove.
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