Page rendered in 0.3629 seconds
41 querie(s) executed
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, July 13, 2009
Barry Zito, Consistency, and the 2009 Giants
In a recent column, Tim Kawakami suggested that Barry Zito was worse than his statistics suggest due to his inconsistency, that his higher percentage of “dud games” hurt the San Francisco Giants win-loss record.
So, is it true? It’s a quick, simple question, so I went and did a quick look at the distribution of Giant run-scoring and Zito run-scoring to try to ascertain if Zito’s really hurting the Giants above-and-beyond having mediocre statistics. For the purposes of this exercise, I’m considering Zito’s ERA as being 5.00 instead of 5.01.
The first thing to do is make a quickie model of the Giant offense and Zito’s run allowance. I don’t want to consider past ability or any concept of “true ability” here, which makes making a model of both these things considerably more problematic. However, you also run into the problem that we have very small sample sizes that can also cause problems in our models. For example, the Giants have scored 4 or 6 runs on 10 occasions and 5 runs on 8 occasions, so we can’t simply choose a random Giant run/9 outing and a random Zito run/9 outing match them and call it a day.
To make a long story short, we want to extrapolate the likeliest model of the 2009 Giant offense and 2009 Zito outings. Using STATISTICA, the math nerd’s version of a sex shop, we can extrapolate a bell curve with the skewness and kurtosis that we see from the data, and sample the data so we can easily see the conclusions.
After doing this, I simulated 50,000 Giant offense outings and 50,000 Zito defense outings. So, how did theoretical Zito do with the theoretical Giants?
As one can see, a pitcher with an ERA of 5 and Zito’s distribution of runs allowed theoretically allows a team that scores like the 2009 Giants to win more often than the generic distribution that the James so-called Pythagorean Theorem predicts. How about some other distributions (all distributions below had a simulated ERA within 1/50th of a run of the ideal 5.00).
- Mr. Consistent, a pitcher that allows exactly 5 runs every 9 innings.
So, how does this Rogue’s Gallery fare?
So, why does this happen?
In essence, we’re looking at a phenomenon caused by the hard floor of zero. A team cannot score or allow fewer than zero runs, and given the patterns in scoring in baseball, in which teams frequently score and allow 5 more runs a game more than average in a single outing but cannot score or allow more than 5 runs less than their average, you run into the issue in which the depreciating values of high numbers of runs cannot be counterbalanced by the depreciating values of low numbers of runs.
As an extreme example, imagine if Barry Zito threw 2 complete games this season and allowed 30 and 29 runs in those games respectively. Those games were essentially 100% losses for the Giants and the chances don’t improve all that much for the Giants if he cut those runs by a third. But outside of those 2 losses, every other game Barry threw 5 innings in would be a win for the Giants and he’d be one of the most valuable pitchers in baseball.
Now, depending on the quality of the team and the quality of the pitcher, the break-even points for value shift considerably.
You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.
2012 ZiPS Projections, Final Edition
(23 - 11:21am, May 31)
2012 ZiPS/RBI Baseball
(20 - 10:58am, May 03)
2012 ZiPS Projections Spreadsheets, v. 1
(62 - 4:38pm, Apr 10)
2012 ZiPS Projections - Oakland A's
(69 - 5:57am, Apr 10)
Last: Athletic Supporter was shiny, now he's all rusted
2012 ZiPS Projections - Kansas City Royals
(31 - 1:51pm, Mar 23)
Pirates - Acquire Burnett
(10 - 11:09pm, Feb 20)
Last: You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR)
2012 ZiPS Projections - Pittsburgh Pirates
(41 - 10:02am, Feb 20)
Last: Dangerous Dean
2012 ZiPS Projections - Minnesota Twins
(31 - 8:53pm, Feb 17)
Last: A Random 8-Year-Old Eskimo
2012 ZiPS Projections - Boston Red Sox
(46 - 4:41pm, Feb 17)
Last: Jose Remains The Most Absurd Thing on the Site
2012 ZiPS Projections - San Diego Padres
(29 - 2:33pm, Feb 17)
Last: Dan Szymborski
2012 ZiPS Projections - Arizona Diamondbacks
(31 - 2:03am, Feb 14)
Last: Dan Szymborski
2012 ZiPS Projections - Texas Rangers
(21 - 12:43pm, Feb 10)
2012 ZiPS Projections - Miami Marlins
(31 - 8:16pm, Feb 07)
Last: There's a bustle in Misirlou's hedgerow
2012 ZiPS Projections - Cleveland Indians
(19 - 10:18pm, Feb 02)
2012 ZiPS Projections - Atlanta Braves
(28 - 6:25pm, Jan 31)
Last: Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™