Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 08, 2005

Blue Jays - Acquired Overbay

Toronto Blue Jays - Acquired 1B Lyle Overbay from the Milwaukee Brewers for 1B Shea Hillenbrand and P David Bush.

[UPDATE:  This trade has been finalized as Bush, Zach Jackson, and Gabe Gross]

I don’t like this quite as much as the first reported trade.  The Blue Jays do have pitching depth the deal from, but trading Shea was the prettier outcome.  Gross is a good 4th outfielder, but he’ll already be 26 for 2006, so he’s not a hot prospect.  Hopefully, they can still flip Hillenbrand for something - if the Twins really were willing to give up Scott Baker for Hilly, the Jays could repair their loss quite nicely.

Lyle Overbay is merely a decent player rather than the great player some in the media were claiming he was during his doubles spree.  But he’ll help the team at a good price - he’s got 4 years to go for free agency.  Hillenbrand is useful, nowhere near as poor as some of us statheads think he is, so it’s not a clunker for the Brewers.  I can’t imagine they’ll keep him at 1st - I think they’re more interested in what Hillenbrand can fetch plus David Bush in the rotation.

2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Overbay     531 81 161 42 1 16 82 77 108   1 .303 .390 .476

 

2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bush       11   8 31 31 179 177   79 21 40 128 3.97

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:22 AM | 38 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Matthew E Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:43 AM (#1766838)
Whoa there tiger.

Is this done? According to Jeff Blair of the Globe & Mail (link) the deal isn't done yet, and anyway it might be for Bush and LHP prospect Zach Jackson. Toronto sports radio doesn't have this deal yet.
   2. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:47 AM (#1766849)
Tim Hudson to the Dodgers, anyone? But if it's true, and the Cards have gone cheap, then Milwaukee's my NL Central pick.
   3. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:48 AM (#1766852)
Why the hell would the Brewers want Hillenbrand?
   4. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:49 AM (#1766855)
Obviously, Vauz means Orlando Hudson. I think.
   5. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:54 AM (#1766867)
Brayan is projected at .251/.347/.499.

So playing on turf is going to give Overbay +.015 OBP and +.028 SLG?
   6. peter21 Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:55 AM (#1766870)
Why the hell would the Brewers want Hillenbrand?

"Hey Teri, it's Doug. Listen, I want to do you a favor...I know you need some hitting, and I just acquired this quality bat that I don't need. I think we can work something out. That guy, oh what's his name...Butcher? Baker? Yes, I think Baker...anyway, I'd be willing to take him and a bullpen arm..."
   7. Matthew E Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:56 AM (#1766874)
Okay, now Rosenthal is saying that it's Bush, Jackson and Gabe Gross for Overbay and a prospect. And then of course there's a thread on this site that says Minnesota's trying to make it a three-way trade in which the Twins get Hillenbrand. Up is down, black is white, cats and dogs living together...
   8. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:56 AM (#1766878)
I heard the deal is Bush, Zach Jackson and Gabe Gross.
   9. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:58 AM (#1766881)
"Hey [Terry], it's Doug..."

Then why didn't they just go with the three-team swap that was rumored before?
   10. Matthew E Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:00 AM (#1766888)
I think some people are dismissing Hillenbrand a little too cavalierly. He's not a bad player. In his year with the Jays he was a useful hitter and his defense at third and first was just fine. No complaints about the guy.
   11. NTNgod Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:01 AM (#1766890)
Then why didn't they just go with the three-team swap that was rumored before?

J-S updated about an hour or so ago quoting Melvin as saying he was working on a straight three-way dance.
He wasn't to acquire Hillenbrand and 'hope' for find a home for him.

Now RoboThal updated, so who knows.

It's either:
TOR - Overbay
MIL - Bush, Jackson, Gross

OR

TOR - Overbay
MIN - Hillenbrand
MIL - Bush, Baker/Lohse, maybe more

Depends on who you believe. In Team Canada (Melvin/Ash) we trust!
   12. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:01 AM (#1766892)
   13. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:03 AM (#1766898)
I think some people are dismissing Hillenbrand a little too cavalierly. He's not a bad player. In his year with the Jays he was a useful hitter and his defense at third and first was just fine. No complaints about the guy.

Sure, but he's not useful at all to the Brewers.
   14. Andrew Edwards Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:08 AM (#1766912)
If ZiPS is right, and this deal is actually happening as described, it's good for the Jays.

They basically add 60 points of OBP at first and shed a few million in salary, while just giving up a good-but-not-great TINSTAAP.
   15. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:17 AM (#1766950)
Wow, someone on this thread is already picking the Brewers for the NL Central? This after the JAys are already christened Al East champs for 2006 by some. Let's cool off the horses here.

If the deal is Gross, Bush, and Jackson then I think Milwaukee is the winner if it includes Hildebrand, then the Jays are a winner and the Brew Crew only if they spin him for someone else.
   16. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:22 AM (#1766964)
ESPN just reported the 2 team version of the trade (Bush, Jackson, Gross for Overbay and prospect).
   17. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:23 AM (#1766969)
Wow, someone on this thread is already picking the Brewers for the NL Central?

Go ahead, think Vaux means it.
   18. Andrew Edwards Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:27 AM (#1766983)
Bush Jackson Gross makes less sense. That's a lot of talent to give up, depending on who the Brewers prospect is, and it leaves the Jays with more salary and 4 corner infielders.

Obviously with 6 or 7 starters (depending on how ready we think McGowan is) and 4 3B/1B/DH types, JP isn't done. But thumbs sideways if its the Bush Jackson Gross version.
   19. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:28 AM (#1766987)
For Overbay and a prospect?
   20. Andrew Edwards Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:36 AM (#1767016)
RoboThal is reporting the Bush/Jackson/Gross version:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5148464
   21. Noel Redding Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:37 AM (#1767018)
I don't get why the Brewers wanted Gross, he seems like another decent 4th outfielder type on a team that already has similar guys in Cruz and Hart. Unless Jenkins or Lee and going with some sort of platoon, Gross just doesn't make sense.
   22. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:41 AM (#1767035)
Well, Jackson instead of Hillenbrand makes it better from Milwaukee's standpoint, IMO. They probably weren't going to get a lot for him in a trade, and there wasn't anyplace to play him since they're committed to Bill Hall at third and Prince Fielder at first.

But for this year, the Brewers actually do look pretty darned good. I think they're better than any team in the NL West, anyway.
   23. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:52 AM (#1767066)
The Red Sox also had been interested in Overbay, offering right-hander Matt Clement and cash, according to an industry source.

From mlb4u.com:
Matt Clement: signed 3-year deal worth 25.5M thru 2007 on 12/22/04- he will make 6.5M in 2005 and 9.5M in both 2006 and 2007- + he can earn a 3M raise(escalator) in both in 2006 and 2007 based on both starts and innings pitching in the prior season.

The Red Sox must have only been offering a couple million if the Brewers preferred the Blue Jays deal.
   24. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:04 AM (#1767091)
If the trade the Cardinals just made with the Rockies is supposed to be their new 2b and lf, then I am serious about my pick.
   25. Spahn Insane Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:20 PM (#1767307)
I think you're underestimating the talent gap between the Cards and the rest of the division, but OK.
   26. NTNgod Posted: December 08, 2005 at 02:25 PM (#1767310)
I think you're underestimating the talent gap between the Cards and the rest of the division, but OK

Their OF could possibly be: Larry Bigbie, Edmonds, So Taguchi
Their IF could possibly be: Pujols, Aaron Miles/Deivi Cruz/Luna, Eckstein, Rolen
   27. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 04:16 PM (#1767459)
I think I understand the Kolb/Obermuller trade now - Obie wasn't going to make the MLB bullpen, and they wanted the AAA starting spot for someone else - probably Jackson in this case, and he wasn't worth paying to stay on as a AAA reliever.

What's our AAA rotation then?

Jackson
Eveland
Sarfate
Hendrickson
Narron/Parra/?
   28. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 04:35 PM (#1767496)
I wonder if Hendrickson is the PTBNL.
   29. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: December 08, 2005 at 04:37 PM (#1767504)
That infield still looks pretty tasty for the Cards, only a few HOFers and a decent player at SS. The outfield has an All-Star and I bet that they will grab another player or two before all is said and done.

How good is John Rodriguez?
   30. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: December 08, 2005 at 04:43 PM (#1767521)
I read Ty Taubenheim was the PTBNL, but that is just internet blather.
   31. The Polish Sausage Racer Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:55 PM (#1767841)
I like Bush (the David variety) as a Brewer. He's solid and a move to the NL should make him even better. The one thing the Brewers really needed was some more pitching depth and this is a fine transaction from that perspective.

It is pretty much committing us to Prince Fielder, though. Hope he's as ready as he seems.
   32. the guy Posted: December 08, 2005 at 06:57 PM (#1767848)
Another good move by JP here:

Bush would be about their 7th starter and doesn't look nearly as good as they once thought, and had issues with Gibby.

Gross was never going to play here because RF is either going to be Rios or a better hitter picked up via trade.

Jackson, though a very good prospect, is one of many good young arms in the system (including similar lefties Purcey, who they like better, and Romero)

It's probably too much talent for Overbay, but talent they can't use. And opens even more possibilities for moving guys. Rumours up here say that teams were telling Melvin that they'd deal for Hillenbrand had he got him instead, so there's a market for Shea and he'll likely be moved. Incidentally, the same report (from Wilner on the Fan 590) said people have actually asked JP about Sh*t-ske, though I cannot imagine why.
   33. 1k5v3L Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:28 PM (#1767975)
that sexson trade keeping giving and giving and giving.

thank you very much, joe jr, you fn moron you...
   34. Evil Twin Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:36 PM (#1768006)
I'm liking the way the Brewers' starting rotation is shaping up based on Zips.

Player ERA
Sheets 3.27
Bush 3.97
Davis 4.26
Ohka 4.45
Capuano 4.55

Obviously, health will be an important consideration. But no more walking gas cans like Santos, Obermueller, and Glover is certainly a step in the right direction. It also wouldn't surprise me if Davis and Capuano outperformed those projections.
   35. _ Posted: December 08, 2005 at 07:54 PM (#1768054)
Wow. Zach Jackson is awfully young-looking.
   36. 1k5v3L Posted: December 08, 2005 at 09:06 PM (#1768253)
Brewers acquired LHP Zach Jackson from the Brewers for RHP Ty Taubenheim to complete the Lyle Overbay trade.
Jacksobn, the 32nd overall selection in the 2004 draft, went 16-8 with a 3.92 ERA, 174 H and 124/39 K/BB in 160 2/3 IP at three levels last season. He could have had better numbers if the Blue Jays weren't so aggressive in promoting him. Jackson projects as a No. 3 starter. He's due for one more year in the minors, and he should be ready to help in 2007. Dec. 8 - 3:03 pm et


Blue Jays acquired RHP Ty Taubenheim from the Brewers for LHP Zach Jackson to complete the Lyle Overbay trade.
Taubenheim, 23, got some notice by going 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 16 starts for Single-A Brevard County last season. He was 2-6 with a 4.36 ERA after moving up to Double-A. His stuff is pretty average, so he appears to be a bottom-of-the-rotation starter at best. Dec. 8 - 3:01 pm et
   37. Voros M. Posted: December 09, 2005 at 03:45 AM (#1768994)
I think some people are dismissing Hillenbrand a little too cavalierly. He's not a bad player. In his year with the Jays he was a useful hitter and his defense at third and first was just fine. No complaints about the guy.

Well he's really of little use as an everyday first baseman. You should have little trouble finding a left handed hitting first baseman that would hit righties better than him making him the wrong side of a platoon at first.

So his only real value is as a third baseman and while he's fine enough there, the last two teams he played for replaced him with better players there (one cheaply, one expensively). A healthy Koskie is almost certainly a better player.

It's not that he's bad, it's just that he's not good. Good teams won't be any worse for having him, bad teams won't be any better...
   38. OlePerfesser Posted: December 12, 2005 at 10:24 PM (#1774117)
Just for the record, here's Gammo's evaluation:

Dave Bush and Zach Jackson for Lyle Overbay. Doug Melvin got the best pitching he could for a premier offensive first baseman.

Yuh, when I think "premier" I think Lyle Overbay. An Oracle Gammo ain't.

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
Dingbat_Charlie
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4430 seconds
47 querie(s) executed