Blue Jays - Acquired Overbay
Toronto Blue Jays - Acquired 1B Lyle Overbay from the Milwaukee Brewers for 1B Shea Hillenbrand and P David Bush.
[UPDATE: This trade has been finalized as Bush, Zach Jackson, and Gabe Gross]
I don’t like this quite as much as the first reported trade. The Blue Jays do have pitching depth the deal from, but trading Shea was the prettier outcome. Gross is a good 4th outfielder, but he’ll already be 26 for 2006, so he’s not a hot prospect. Hopefully, they can still flip Hillenbrand for something - if the Twins really were willing to give up Scott Baker for Hilly, the Jays could repair their loss quite nicely.
Lyle Overbay is merely a decent player rather than the great player some in the media were claiming he was during his doubles spree. But he’ll help the team at a good price - he’s got 4 years to go for free agency. Hillenbrand is useful, nowhere near as poor as some of us statheads think he is, so it’s not a clunker for the Brewers. I can’t imagine they’ll keep him at 1st - I think they’re more interested in what Hillenbrand can fetch plus David Bush in the rotation.
2006 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Overbay 531 81 161 42 1 16 82 77 108 1 .303 .390 .476
2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bush 11 8 31 31 179 177 79 21 40 128 3.97
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:22 AM |
38 comment(s)
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1. Matthew E Posted: December 08, 2005 at 05:43 AM (#1766838)Is this done? According to Jeff Blair of the Globe & Mail (link) the deal isn't done yet, and anyway it might be for Bush and LHP prospect Zach Jackson. Toronto sports radio doesn't have this deal yet.
So playing on turf is going to give Overbay +.015 OBP and +.028 SLG?
"Hey Teri, it's Doug. Listen, I want to do you a favor...I know you need some hitting, and I just acquired this quality bat that I don't need. I think we can work something out. That guy, oh what's his name...Butcher? Baker? Yes, I think Baker...anyway, I'd be willing to take him and a bullpen arm..."
Then why didn't they just go with the three-team swap that was rumored before?
J-S updated about an hour or so ago quoting Melvin as saying he was working on a straight three-way dance.
He wasn't to acquire Hillenbrand and 'hope' for find a home for him.
Now RoboThal updated, so who knows.
It's either:
TOR - Overbay
MIL - Bush, Jackson, Gross
OR
TOR - Overbay
MIN - Hillenbrand
MIL - Bush, Baker/Lohse, maybe more
Depends on who you believe. In Team Canada (Melvin/Ash) we trust!
Gabe Gross
Sure, but he's not useful at all to the Brewers.
They basically add 60 points of OBP at first and shed a few million in salary, while just giving up a good-but-not-great TINSTAAP.
If the deal is Gross, Bush, and Jackson then I think Milwaukee is the winner if it includes Hildebrand, then the Jays are a winner and the Brew Crew only if they spin him for someone else.
Go ahead, think Vaux means it.
Obviously with 6 or 7 starters (depending on how ready we think McGowan is) and 4 3B/1B/DH types, JP isn't done. But thumbs sideways if its the Bush Jackson Gross version.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/5148464
But for this year, the Brewers actually do look pretty darned good. I think they're better than any team in the NL West, anyway.
From mlb4u.com:
Matt Clement: signed 3-year deal worth 25.5M thru 2007 on 12/22/04- he will make 6.5M in 2005 and 9.5M in both 2006 and 2007- + he can earn a 3M raise(escalator) in both in 2006 and 2007 based on both starts and innings pitching in the prior season.
The Red Sox must have only been offering a couple million if the Brewers preferred the Blue Jays deal.
Their OF could possibly be: Larry Bigbie, Edmonds, So Taguchi
Their IF could possibly be: Pujols, Aaron Miles/Deivi Cruz/Luna, Eckstein, Rolen
What's our AAA rotation then?
Jackson
Eveland
Sarfate
Hendrickson
Narron/Parra/?
How good is John Rodriguez?
It is pretty much committing us to Prince Fielder, though. Hope he's as ready as he seems.
Bush would be about their 7th starter and doesn't look nearly as good as they once thought, and had issues with Gibby.
Gross was never going to play here because RF is either going to be Rios or a better hitter picked up via trade.
Jackson, though a very good prospect, is one of many good young arms in the system (including similar lefties Purcey, who they like better, and Romero)
It's probably too much talent for Overbay, but talent they can't use. And opens even more possibilities for moving guys. Rumours up here say that teams were telling Melvin that they'd deal for Hillenbrand had he got him instead, so there's a market for Shea and he'll likely be moved. Incidentally, the same report (from Wilner on the Fan 590) said people have actually asked JP about Sh*t-ske, though I cannot imagine why.
thank you very much, joe jr, you fn moron you...
Player ERA
Sheets 3.27
Bush 3.97
Davis 4.26
Ohka 4.45
Capuano 4.55
Obviously, health will be an important consideration. But no more walking gas cans like Santos, Obermueller, and Glover is certainly a step in the right direction. It also wouldn't surprise me if Davis and Capuano outperformed those projections.
Jacksobn, the 32nd overall selection in the 2004 draft, went 16-8 with a 3.92 ERA, 174 H and 124/39 K/BB in 160 2/3 IP at three levels last season. He could have had better numbers if the Blue Jays weren't so aggressive in promoting him. Jackson projects as a No. 3 starter. He's due for one more year in the minors, and he should be ready to help in 2007. Dec. 8 - 3:03 pm et
Blue Jays acquired RHP Ty Taubenheim from the Brewers for LHP Zach Jackson to complete the Lyle Overbay trade.
Taubenheim, 23, got some notice by going 10-2 with a 2.63 ERA in 16 starts for Single-A Brevard County last season. He was 2-6 with a 4.36 ERA after moving up to Double-A. His stuff is pretty average, so he appears to be a bottom-of-the-rotation starter at best. Dec. 8 - 3:01 pm et
Well he's really of little use as an everyday first baseman. You should have little trouble finding a left handed hitting first baseman that would hit righties better than him making him the wrong side of a platoon at first.
So his only real value is as a third baseman and while he's fine enough there, the last two teams he played for replaced him with better players there (one cheaply, one expensively). A healthy Koskie is almost certainly a better player.
It's not that he's bad, it's just that he's not good. Good teams won't be any worse for having him, bad teams won't be any better...
Yuh, when I think "premier" I think Lyle Overbay. An Oracle Gammo ain't.
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