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Transaction Oracle — A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen Wednesday, January 24, 2007Blue Jays - Signed OhkaToronto Blue Jays - Signed P Tomokazu Ohka to a 1-year contract.
This comes in at $1.5 million. Call me stupid, but I rather have a player coming off of rotator cuff surgery rather than rotator cuff rehab. Does the “rehab the torn rotator cuff” plan every really work all that well? Perhaps I’m just biased due to the cases of Todd Stottlemyre and Sidney Ponson, who both chose “ignore it and hope it goes away” medical option over surgery recommendations. Stottlemyre ruined his elbow trying to compensate for the shoulder injury and Ponson pitched well for a while until batters caught up to his weaker stuff and now he’s essentially done as well.
I also don’t really see the benefit for the Blue Jays. Shoulder in one piece, I’d take him over all but Halladay and Burnett, but I don’t feel that Ohka is one of the 5 best starting pitchers in the Jays organization.
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1. Walt Davis Posted: January 24, 2007 at 05:43 AM (#2285511)But at 1 year, $1.5 this is a perfectly fine flier. If they can that 4.86 ERA (big if), that will be a major bargain. Worst-case scenario, they get Jason Marquis at 1/4 of the price and 1/3 of the commitment. :-)
I know, I know, we'll all be using Carlos Lee, Barry Zito, and Jason Marquis to justify any contract for the next three years.
That said? I like this signing. This is miniscule money for someone who has a reasonable chance of being, well, average.
Yes, but I think 6's point is that one of the things that makes great players great is that even when they're struggling, they're average. Because of the skewed distribution of talent at each position, "average" is probably almost by definition pretty good. If you're putting out mean-level production, you're probably in at least the 40il;e of players at your position.
I think the problem here isn't so much that getting to average is tough (which is certainly true), but it's hard to say what average is. Only 32 pitchers pitched better than a 4.5 ERA in 200 or more IP last season. That definition of average isn't average at all.
If the Jays can simply filter through several options at the back of the rotation to avoid playing clearly below average pitchers this year or hopefully to ride hot streaks, that might be enough.
Now if they can somehow finangle a return to the fold for Hinske and if Clayton/Macdonald/sinking SS hole of playoff death is better than expected, this team can make some noise.
In isolation, they're better positioned this year than they were last. But the Yankees and Red Sox will be better, and the Rays are getting it together. It's gonna be tough, and they've got a lot riding on Thomas, Burnett and Glaus being healthy.
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