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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Friday, December 11, 2009
Brad Hawpe Projection Update
I’ve gotten quite a bit of feedback wondering why ZiPS projects such a dropoff in Brad Hawpe’s batting average. I hadn’t gotten around to double-checking that particular projection because I had a lot on my plate. In response to a question recently, I went back to Hawpe so I could give a step-by-step rundown of how ZiPS broke down Hawpe and why it didn’t like him going forward.
So, I reran Hawpe. When there’s a controversial projection, I run the numbers again to make sure that nothing went goofy. About 5 or 6 times a year a reader finds an error and I usually find 2 or 3 additional ones when I’m doing final projections in the middle of the winter.
Hawpe is the only player that there wasn’t a question about that I hadn’t gotten around to double-checking and it seems that I should have, as the Hawpe projection is wrong. And in this case, it’s a fairly serious one. While ZiPS runs itself, I still have to copy and paste already formatted data into ZiPS but after some trial and error (I tried to recreate the wrong projection), it appears that Reese Havens’s 2009 season (a 216/308/339) was entered in for Hawpe’s 2006.
Hawpe’s actual projection should be 289/388/524, which is what everyone will see on the final disk. Everything else I say stands - Hawpe’s not a great bet long-term (projected OPS+ next 5 years of 126, 119, 117, 109, 102), but the dropoff isn’t expected to be quite as quick as I first posted.
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