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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Braves - Acquired Uggla

Atlanta Braves - Acquired 2B Dan Uggla from the Atlanta Braves for 2B Omar Infante and P Michael Dunn.

Before the Marlins made this trade and the John Buck signing, I believed in my own existence.  I believed that I lived in a world with metaphysical laws, the world of “reality” while when I dreamt, that was the fiction.

Today, I’m not too sure.  To paraphrase Zhuangzi, I’m no longer certain whether I’m a man living in a world in which the Marlins dumped Dan Uggla that dreams of going to the grocery store with Chester A. Arthur dressed up as a viking or if I’m a viking going to the grocery store with Chester A. Arthur that dreams that the Marlins are run by Bullwinkle.

In essence, from a playing standpoint, the Marlins are trading a year of Dan Uggla for a year of Omar Infante and a hard-throwing reliever with a history of control problems.  Yuck.  Sure, the Marlins save money, but they’ve already given 50% more than they would owe Uggla for 2011 to John Buck for no particular reason and threw away the opportunity cost between what they got for Uggla and what a reasonable trade for Uggla would’ve been.

GMs, if you have magic beans for the Marlins, put them away.  They’ll take regular beans.

Great trade for the Braves.  Though I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t suggest that the Braves could’ve saved the bother if they had just kept Kelly Johnson (1 win better than Uggla the last 4 years by BR’s WAR, 1 win worse by FG’s WAR) in the first place.

2011 ZiPS Projections
————————————————————————————————————————-
Player     AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+  DEF
————————————————————————————————————————-
Uggla     559 88 145 28   1 29   87 71 144   4 .292 .346 .469 116   -5
Infante     373 49 112 17   3   5   42 27 51   5 .300 .347 .402   96   -1
————————————————————————————————————————-

 

2011 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
———————————————————————————————————
Dunn       2   3 56   0   64.1   57   33   6 56 71   4.62   92
———————————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2010 at 10:35 PM | 24 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Mattbert Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:21 PM (#3691517)
Oh deary me.
   2. thetailor Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:41 PM (#3691549)
Interesting move! Intra division, with two guys who can play the same position. Pretty rare.

That said, I don't see it as terrible for the Marlins. Sure, letting Uggla walk and getting the compensatory picks would have been nice, but by the same token, they save a bunch of money this year with only a marginal downgrade.

Uggla projects to be, what, a 4 win player? If Infante can be a 2 win player, and the Marlins can use the cash to make a big move (Jayson Werth, I am looking at you) this could be a win-now move.
   3. Frisco Cali Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:43 PM (#3691552)
Relax. It's just an exchange of All-Stars. Win-win!!
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:52 PM (#3691564)
Uggla projects to be, what, a 4 win player? If Infante can be a 2 win player, and the Marlins can use the cash to make a big move (Jayson Werth, I am looking at you) this could be a win-now move.

Dont forget, they've already spent 3/4 of Uggla's likely salary on Infante and Buck.
   5. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: November 17, 2010 at 12:05 AM (#3691579)
I can see why people don't like the move, but if Infante and Buck put up 100 OPS+ type seasons and the Marlins use the bit of cash they saved for another critical piece, the whole effort might make some sense.

Buck seems expensive for a team that is making this kind of move, but in the Marlins' defense, they do tend to win a lot more than I ever expect. I'm not sure how, but they do.
   6. sportznut Posted: November 17, 2010 at 12:23 AM (#3691598)
I'm disappointed my Tigers couldn't have given the Marlins something better than that crappy package. Oh, and there's no chance (IMO) that Uggla bats .292.
   7. Der Komminsk-sar Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:18 AM (#3691627)
Simplistically, fla traded 70 pts of slg for $5.2m, some d, and a live arm. Not as bad as we're making it out to be.
   8. Don Malcolm Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:21 AM (#3691628)
Well, Dan, as Casey Stengel (Montgomery Ward's answer to Zhuangzi...) said: "Ya gotta have a catcher or ya got nothing but passed balls."

The skull has spoken, and apparently it sucks more to be alive than it does to be dead.

Are we sure that the Braves aren't sending this Michael Dunn to the Fish??
   9. sonoran_fox Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:35 AM (#3691634)
Over the last two years the Braves coaches have been pretty consistent in stating that Infante's best position is CF. Perhaps the Marlins want him out there.
   10. spike Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:36 AM (#3691635)
I am as happy about this as any Braves fan would be, but that ZIPS line for Infante looks pretty harsh, considering he's beaten it for the last three years, and he's just turned 28. I mean, sure I could see some regression from this year, but that's a pretty steep drop.
   11. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:45 AM (#3691637)
I mean, sure I could see some regression from this year, but that's a pretty steep drop.

Well, he is moving to an offense suppressing park but, yeah, even his park adjusted numbers are worse than the last three seasons.
   12. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:46 AM (#3691639)
I presume this means that Chipper is likely to retire.

I don't think this qualifies as a great trade, merely a good one. Uggla's going to be 31, his defense is deteriorating, and while he doesn't appear to be losing any bat speed yet his skills are of the type where when he does, his value is going to decline quickly. I don't see him as *likely* to decline next year, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen over the next 2-3 years.

-- MWE
   13. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:51 AM (#3691643)
Over the last two years the Braves coaches have been pretty consistent in stating that Infante's best position is CF. Perhaps the Marlins want him out there.


That's a possibility, which would free up the Marlins to move Coghlan back to 2B.

I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibility that Hanley could be moved to 3B, with Ozzie Martinez at SS, either.

-- MWE
   14. spike Posted: November 17, 2010 at 01:56 AM (#3691648)
Goodness, if Infante can play CF - and this is the first I've heard of it, and I follow pretty closely - why on earth didn't we see him in CF sometime before Prado/Chipper got hurt? Everybody else was just awful. If he really can play a passable CF, color me most disappointed.

edit - I don't mean to imply this isn't so, just speaking to the depth of my surprise.
   15. The kids disappeared, now Der-K has too much candy Posted: November 17, 2010 at 02:07 AM (#3691656)
12/Mike: That's where I am.
I also think Dunn will beat that projection (though not by a lot). Also, isn't Miami a better park in which to hit than Atlanta?
   16. thetailor Posted: November 17, 2010 at 03:26 AM (#3691698)
Yeah, I didn't know about the Buck signing when I first saw this. But even so, this move does free up money. Now they are free of that 4/48 extension for Uggla, plus the $5.2MM freed up this year, plus whatever they were planning to increase payroll by anyway.

Four years, $60 million for Werth to join the Marlins, backloaded, 10, 15, 15, 20, you heard it here first!
   17. sonoran_fox Posted: November 17, 2010 at 03:44 AM (#3691709)
<<Goodness, if Infante can play CF - and this is the first I've heard of it>>

Spike, Bobby Cox filled in the lineup cards. The coaches I am quoting offered their opinions about Infante's best position, which is not the same thing as what Wren/Cox had Infante on the roster for. That said, Infante was needed far more at ss or 2b than in center, last year in particular.
   18. Meramec Posted: November 17, 2010 at 05:41 AM (#3691796)
Maybe the Marlins are going for an all RP-strategy like it's a fantasy league or something.
   19. Something Other Posted: November 17, 2010 at 08:41 AM (#3691815)
Your Zips broken

if it's weighting Dunn's 23 major league innings wrt BBs nearly infinitely more than his 422 innings pitched in the minors with a BB/9 of 4.1.

I also have to think the projection is self-refuting. Only the Mets would let a guy with a walk rate around 8 per 9 get anywhere near 64 innings pitched.
   20. Bring Back Pluto Posted: November 17, 2010 at 10:40 AM (#3691821)
Looks like a typo on Uggla's line. His BA now reads .292. That's like a 30 point jump since his projections from Florida. And, obviously, the H/AB don't work out to .292. So, yeah, I guess a typo.
   21. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: November 17, 2010 at 02:29 PM (#3691905)
Dan,

I'm curious as to your take on the Maybin & Miller trades from a Fish standpoint.

Also, does this mean you're back from the Dark Side?
   22. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2010 at 08:17 PM (#3692194)
if it's weighting Dunn's 23 major league innings wrt BBs nearly infinitely more than his 422 innings pitched in the minors with a BB/9 of 4.1.

Except his good walk rates were at very low levels. He's easily over 5 in AA and AAA which translates even higher and has been a walk machine in the majors. Combine translation and terrible MLB control and that's a lot of walks.
   23. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2010 at 08:18 PM (#3692196)
Looks like a typo on Uggla's line. His BA now reads .292. That's like a 30 point jump since his projections from Florida. And, obviously, the H/AB don't work out to .292. So, yeah, I guess a typo.

Yeah, it's .259.
   24. Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2010 at 08:19 PM (#3692200)
Dan,

I'm curious as to your take on the Maybin & Miller trades from a Fish standpoint.

Also, does this mean you're back from the Dark Side?


No, I just don't write *everything* for the 4-letter network (I'm probably having a longer, more serious look at Uggla in Atlanta tomorrow there, though).

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