Braves - Acquired Uggla
Atlanta Braves - Acquired 2B Dan Uggla from the Atlanta Braves for 2B Omar Infante and P Michael Dunn.
Before the Marlins made this trade and the John Buck signing, I believed in my own existence. I believed that I lived in a world with metaphysical laws, the world of “reality” while when I dreamt, that was the fiction.
Today, I’m not too sure. To paraphrase Zhuangzi, I’m no longer certain whether I’m a man living in a world in which the Marlins dumped Dan Uggla that dreams of going to the grocery store with Chester A. Arthur dressed up as a viking or if I’m a viking going to the grocery store with Chester A. Arthur that dreams that the Marlins are run by Bullwinkle.
In essence, from a playing standpoint, the Marlins are trading a year of Dan Uggla for a year of Omar Infante and a hard-throwing reliever with a history of control problems. Yuck. Sure, the Marlins save money, but they’ve already given 50% more than they would owe Uggla for 2011 to John Buck for no particular reason and threw away the opportunity cost between what they got for Uggla and what a reasonable trade for Uggla would’ve been.
GMs, if you have magic beans for the Marlins, put them away. They’ll take regular beans.
Great trade for the Braves. Though I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t suggest that the Braves could’ve saved the bother if they had just kept Kelly Johnson (1 win better than Uggla the last 4 years by BR’s WAR, 1 win worse by FG’s WAR) in the first place.
2011 ZiPS Projections
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Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DEF
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Uggla 559 88 145 28 1 29 87 71 144 4 .292 .346 .469 116 -5
Infante 373 49 112 17 3 5 42 27 51 5 .300 .347 .402 96 -1
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2011 ZiPS Projections
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Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ERA+
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Dunn 2 3 56 0 64.1 57 33 6 56 71 4.62 92
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 16, 2010 at 11:35 PM |
24 comment(s)
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1. Mattbert Posted: November 17, 2010 at 12:21 AM (#3691517)That said, I don't see it as terrible for the Marlins. Sure, letting Uggla walk and getting the compensatory picks would have been nice, but by the same token, they save a bunch of money this year with only a marginal downgrade.
Uggla projects to be, what, a 4 win player? If Infante can be a 2 win player, and the Marlins can use the cash to make a big move (Jayson Werth, I am looking at you) this could be a win-now move.
Dont forget, they've already spent 3/4 of Uggla's likely salary on Infante and Buck.
Buck seems expensive for a team that is making this kind of move, but in the Marlins' defense, they do tend to win a lot more than I ever expect. I'm not sure how, but they do.
The skull has spoken, and apparently it sucks more to be alive than it does to be dead.
Are we sure that the Braves aren't sending this Michael Dunn to the Fish??
Well, he is moving to an offense suppressing park but, yeah, even his park adjusted numbers are worse than the last three seasons.
I don't think this qualifies as a great trade, merely a good one. Uggla's going to be 31, his defense is deteriorating, and while he doesn't appear to be losing any bat speed yet his skills are of the type where when he does, his value is going to decline quickly. I don't see him as *likely* to decline next year, but wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen over the next 2-3 years.
-- MWE
That's a possibility, which would free up the Marlins to move Coghlan back to 2B.
I wouldn't put it beyond the realm of possibility that Hanley could be moved to 3B, with Ozzie Martinez at SS, either.
-- MWE
edit - I don't mean to imply this isn't so, just speaking to the depth of my surprise.
I also think Dunn will beat that projection (though not by a lot). Also, isn't Miami a better park in which to hit than Atlanta?
Four years, $60 million for Werth to join the Marlins, backloaded, 10, 15, 15, 20, you heard it here first!
Spike, Bobby Cox filled in the lineup cards. The coaches I am quoting offered their opinions about Infante's best position, which is not the same thing as what Wren/Cox had Infante on the roster for. That said, Infante was needed far more at ss or 2b than in center, last year in particular.
if it's weighting Dunn's 23 major league innings wrt BBs nearly infinitely more than his 422 innings pitched in the minors with a BB/9 of 4.1.
I also have to think the projection is self-refuting. Only the Mets would let a guy with a walk rate around 8 per 9 get anywhere near 64 innings pitched.
I'm curious as to your take on the Maybin & Miller trades from a Fish standpoint.
Also, does this mean you're back from the Dark Side?
Except his good walk rates were at very low levels. He's easily over 5 in AA and AAA which translates even higher and has been a walk machine in the majors. Combine translation and terrible MLB control and that's a lot of walks.
Yeah, it's .259.
I'm curious as to your take on the Maybin & Miller trades from a Fish standpoint.
Also, does this mean you're back from the Dark Side?
No, I just don't write *everything* for the 4-letter network (I'm probably having a longer, more serious look at Uggla in Atlanta tomorrow there, though).
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