Braves - Acquired McLouth
Atlanta Braves - Acquired CF Nate McLouth from the Pittsburgh Pirates for P Charlie Morton, OF Gorkys Hernandez, and P Jeff Locke.
I think Huntington misunderstood. People were calling for McLouth to be moved to left field, not to another city. This strikes me as a mistake on the part of the Pirates. With McLouth not a free agent until 2011 and already locked up at $5 million per, the team really needed to get a real impact prospect. Now, Jason Heyward was almost certainly off-limits here and probably Tommy Hanson, too, but couldn’t the Pirates have gotten at least a little higher in the Braves prospect pecking order? When you’re giving up a solid, cheap player and the other team isn’t giving up someone they’re likely to miss, you’re not getting fair value.
Morton’s pretty much a 5th starter, unlikely to really develop too much beyond that. Locke has a solid fastball and probably has the highest upside of any of the players going to Pittsburgh, but he’s also an A-ball pitcher and having trouble with walks this year. Hernandez has developed more than a lot of toolsy players of the type, but his power is still disappointing and his skills haven’t developed enough that you can overlook that.
The benefits for the Braves are pretty obvious. They acquire a player who instantly becomes their best outfielder, and give up none of their prized prospects. Yes, McLouth can’t stay in center long-term, but even at 10 runs below average (and he’s been a bit better this year), he’s still a solid contributor. The Braves still have Heyward and Schafer’s career is hardly over.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Nate McLouth
——————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date 168 27 43 7 1 9 34 21 29 7 .256 .349 .470
Rest-of-Year 310 56 80 19 2 13 45 36 58 13 .258 .345 .460
——————————————————————————————————————
Total 478 83 123 26 3 22 79 57 87 20 .257 .347 .464
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: June 04, 2009 at 12:13 AM |
192 comment(s)
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This, of course, confused the MLBeasters as McLouth is a GG winner!
There's a good chance that none of the three players amounts to anything, prospects being what they are. From that perspective, I agree that this trade is sort of screwy from the Pirates right now. That is the concern, that they didn't really need to roll the dice on the prospects since McLouth was theirs for several more years. I do not agree that they didn't extract enough from the Braves.
Yay Frank Wren!
Not relevant. The critique in the post said they should have plucked from somewhere lower than Hanson and Heyward but higher than Hernandez in the Braves' prospect pecking order.
I think the Pirates got more for McLouth in those three guys than the Rockies did in CarGo, Greg Smith, and Huston Street from the A's for Holliday.
Freeman fits in there now. Medlen might too.
Maybe it works in reverse. You should start spelling Jeff Francoeur incorrectly and maybe they'll trade him to the Pirates!
I think the Pirates got more for McLouth in those three guys than the Rockies did in CarGo, Greg Smith, and Huston Street from the A's for Holliday.
They should have. 2 and 2/3 seasons of Nate McLouth for $13 million is a great deal more valuable than 1 season of Matt Holliday at $13.5 million. McLouth's excellent contract situation brings a ton of value to this trade. If he were unsigned and the possibility existed for him to be making $20 million over 2010 and 2011 in arbitration, this trade would have become a good deal better for the Pirates.
Both by scouting reports and stats, Hernandez is an outstanding CF defensively - a legit possibility to evenually be the best in the game on that front - who is hitting .316 as a 21-year old in one of the biggest pitcher's parks in AA. He also has little power, though he offers some (gap) projection, and isn't walking this year, though his track record on that front in the past is respectable. He is a B prospect now, possibly B+ (on the John S. scale).
Morton is 25 and has been one of the best pitchers in the IL the last two years (12-4 in 143.2 ip, 103 h, 38 r, 36 er, 3 hr, 43 bb, 127 so). He also struggled in Atlanta last season, but was trying to play through back problems. Disconcertingly, he's never pitched that well outside of AAA - he wasn't a particularly high achiever prior to his Richmond promotion. He has 3rd-4th starter stuff. I wanted him to make the big league roster this year.
Locke was a little overrated as Atlanta's #7 prospect (per BA), but he's still a pretty useful commodity to have.
Both by scouting reports and stats, Hernandez is an outstanding CF defensively - a legit possibility to evenually be the best in the game on that front - who is hitting .316 as a 21-year old in one of the biggest pitcher's parks in AA.
The problem is, .401 BABIP. Davenport, Smith, and I all have that translated in the .600 OPS range.
Quality repeater years? Last year was his first year - he was great. This year is his second year, he's been great.
but he did poorly in Atlanta last year (you can't just write it off to "bad back" as if that's not a huge concern for his projectability)
I'm not - it's a real concern going forward, but it explains (partially) he struggles. Didn't he also lose like 25 pounds late last season for some reason? Whatever the case - he's okay now.
I haven't questioned this deal on the Atlanta side. I'm just not convinced that Pitt got screwed.
Except Blanco barely ever sniffed top prospect lists, while Hernandez has been considered of value since day one.
He's Mike Cameron without the power.
What a strange comp.
I clearly approach this from a Braves perspective, and they've plugged one of the gaping holes in their team without giving up anything of note. If any of the players going to Pittsburgh outperforms their ATL counterparts in the next three years I'd be shocked. And a 2010 OF of McLouth/Schafer/Heyward looks better and better to me.
I was being kind. I could have said Josh Anderson.
McLouth is obviously better than any outfielder the Braves have who is major-league ready, and so this is a great deal for them, since it improves their ability to contend now. Good for them. And they have utilized the ample depth in their system -- which is another way of saying they have depleted it. (That's not a criticism; one reason to build up depth is so that you can trade a solid prospect like Hernandez, thus depleting your depth, but still have kids you can be ready to plug into your outfield in the next couple of years.) Just because the Pirates didn't get the Braves' best OF prospect, or their best pitching prospect, doesn't mean they didn't get kids who can help them. And it doesn't mean the kids they got weren't worth McLouth.
Zips says he's a .800 OF -- who can pass for a CF, but isn't nearly as good defensively as his hardware. Don't get me wrong, he's a perfectly good OF - his bat is good enough to play a corner OF spot for virtually any team and he's also an excellent baserunner - but he's ultimately a .250/.350/.450 corner OF with nice secondary skills.
Obviously, that's a huge step up for the Braves -- but I'm not sure exactly who people are thinking the Pirates could have gotten for him.
Ideally, the equivalent of "a .250/.350/.450 corner OF with nice secondary skills" at a position they need more, whether that be a position player or a pitcher.
I'd much rather see them go for a single guy who can definitely help them instead of three guys that, given the general odds of prospects of those caliber panning out, probably won't really.
The third reason people overrate McLouth is that he's a better fantasy baseball player than actual baseball player. He's currently ranked 84th among all MLB players in the Yahoo fantasy baseball (20-20 ability will do that for you).
Granted, he's not a middle-of-the-order slugger. But the player you describe has his uses, particularly for a team lacking any other MLB-quality starting outfielders, and especially given the price.
McLouth is basically the second coming of Al Martin (minus a few BA points, add a few walks): decent broad base of skills, not exceptional in any one of them. Martin was a useful player until he turned 30. The key for the Braves is to enjoy McLouth when he's cheap (preferably in LF) and then refrain from signing him long-term.
It's fair enough that McLouth is "nothing" more than an average-ish corner OF, but, again, he's one who's under your control for 2 2/3 years at $13 M (using Dan's numbers which I assume are correct).
This also means that the Pirates have traded their entire OF within less than a season. And the best player they've gotten in return is .... Gorkys Hernandez? Oh hey, what do you know, Andy LaRoche has started hitting. So in exchange for an entire starting OF, they may have gotten a starting 3B!
And this may mean we can officially declare a strange trend of lower-revenue teams trading off cost-controlled "young" guys -- Swisher (twice), Haren, Bay, McLouth, Laird, possibly Peavy, am I missing anyone? It's understandable that these would be valuable trade chits but what makes them valuable to the higher-revenue team is exactly what makes them so valuable to lower-revenue teams. Seems to me you have to get great payoff in return to make trading away players like that worthwhile. Other than the Haren 6-for-1 deal (which might still not pay off for the A's), I don't think that's happened.
I know, the White Sox aren't low-revenue so I'm cheating a bit counting the second Swisher trade. And Peavy's not exactly cheap and Laird was being pushed out by younger players.
My thoughts exactly.
I don't have a problem with the Pirates looking to trade McLouth: he's exactly the type of player they should be looking to trade BUT TO GET SOMEONE APPROACHING AN POTENTIAL IMPACT PROSPECT IN RETURN. None of the guys that the Braves gave up can be expected to be impact players. At best, they might become cheap role players.
I don't see how Murton projects as a #3 starter (as someone either here or on a Newsblog thread suggested). Back of the rotation would seem to be his ceiling, with a near 50% chance that he never becomes anymore than a AAAA journeyman. Likewise, at best Hernandez is a 5th outfielder, with a better than 50% shot at spending the next six years floundering as a AAAA outfielder. And Locke has possibilities, but at the end of the day is still just a young Single A reliever.
If you're looking for a package to cash in on McLouth that's fine, but is this the sort of deal that is just so good it has to be done now before the Braves reconsider?
Maybe they thought they were trading Jack Wilson.
Yeah, this is the biggest issue here. The Pirates are consistently making firesale deals without getting enough in return. It's almost unbelievable that they could get so little return on these trades.
Also, I can't believe there are people in this thread who still seem to think that the Nady trade was a bad idea, or that the Bay trade is done and in the books when the most important prospect from it (Morris) is still in A-ball. It's disappointing, but such is life. Littlefield burned the farm system to the ground, so there was going to be some pain while we built it back up.
IMHO - they got what they could. How it all works out in x years is going to be blogfood for the next little while. But nobody in this day and age not named Littlefield is going to give up top prospects for a serviceable outfielder with B+ numbers. Well-intentioned Pirate fans may wish to set fire to articles of clothing in public spaces, but trades like this are the present (and probably forseeable future) reality for the PBC. They just don't have that much to deal with. Littlefay et al had a decade and a half to turn the organization into a moonscape. Getting something green to grow there is going to mean takings chances with the few resources you have, whose value is going to suffer prima faciefrom the club's obvious desperation.
How does this work out? Who knows. But props to present management for having the stones to take the chance.
They're probably not screaming; they're probably either watching hockey or counting down the days to Steelers training camp.
True - funny thing is, being one of the few who don't think the Pirates got completely hosed here, I actually have McLouth signed to a very reasonable long-term in my own fantasy league, so I'm well aware of his rotisserie chops (I'm shopping him myself).
I'm not saying my 2 1/2 year roto relationship with McLouth makes me an expert on him, I'm just saying a lot of people seem to be thinking McLouth is a perennial all-star type rather than a nice player who might may very well never make another midsummer classic (especially now that he's playing for a team that won't have trouble filling its one spot).
If that was the case, then the question to consider is would Nyger Morgan or Delwyn Young have drawn interest let alone this package of players from the Braves.
Given that Young was available for nothing but money a few months ago, I doubt he'd bring much (if anything) back in trade. And he's being used more as a 2B than an OF now, anyway.
"I guess the big question is, what the hell was the rush here?"
The Braves were probably motivated at least in part by a desire to distract people about the Glavine thing, and as such, I'm guessing that they weren't going to sit on this offer for very long.
Ummmm... No. The Braves were motivated by the fact that their best outfielder was Matt Diaz. Jordan Schafer needs a season at AAA to work out the hole ML pitchers found up and in on his swing. (To leave him in CF despite the obvious need for improvement would be to replicate the error the franchise made with Francoeur in 2005.) DFA'ing Jamie Moyer after he had trouble getting outs in A-ball doesn't enter into it.
I think its a win-win for both teams. Atlanta doesn't need to part with their top prospects, Pittsburgh gets three nice minor leaguers all of whom have a decent chance of being starters. I think there is also too much emphasis in the analysis on McLouth being young and cheap. He's a nice player to have, but not a big impact bat that you can expect top prospects for. I mean he's a .800-.850 OPS corner outfielder. I think Huntington did pretty well, and it was a nice time to cash in that chip in case McLouth turns back into a pumpkin.
Now, as far a sthe Braves acquiring McLouth? %@*(&+><!
The phrase "benefit of the doubt" springs to mind.
Even if they had traded him for Jason Heyward, Jair Jurrjens and Yunel Escobar, people would be negative from Pittsburgh's point of view. "Heyward must be injured or have PTSD or be about to retire and go play football", we would think.
Here, I agree with Hutcheson entirely. Someone, call a doctor - I may swoon...
To be clear the concern with McLouth back when he was a prospect was that he was a tweener (not enough glove for center, pop for a corner, etc...) - Gorkys is much more two-dimensional - hit line drives (28% LD in AA), run fast, catch ball.
That, and very few internet flame wars develop over "well, both teams did okay considering what they're trying to accomplish." If you want the flipside to this, go read some of the comments at the AJC. They're comparing this to sending Saltalamacchia and Andrus to Texas for Teixeira.
Sure. What'll you guys give for him?
Well, the real downside of that trade was that the hole at first caused the braves to trade the farm for texeira. The trade for mclouth isn't nearly as one-sided as that was though.
Someone mentioned McLouth and his fantasy value. He had an ADP of 59 so being ranked 84th currently is not anything to get excited about.
One other thing to consider about the trade is that depending on what happens to next year's FA class, McLouth's contract may not be much of a bargain, especially if he doesn't return to 2008's first half numbers.
He seems more like a Marquis Grissom type to me. Which still wouldn't be a bad outcome, all told.
I think the point they were trying to make is that he's not the 59th (or 84th) best player in MLB, so that fantasy ranking overstates his true value.
He seems more like a Marquis Grissom type to me. Which still wouldn't be a bad outcome, all told.
That is a much better comp, yes.
Grissom was also a good deal more polished, which prompted the Expos to call him up a year too soon.
Hush.
Like I said, he's my primary chit in an attempt to get some pitching.
Ike Davis, Josh Thole & Tim Redding.
Hernandez is 21 and in AA. When Grissom was 21, he was beating up teenagers in the NY-Penn League. And when he got bumped up to the upper minors at 22, he didn't show much power at all: .115 ISO in 278 AA AB, and a .128 in 187 AAA AB. Which is, admittedly, more than Gorkys has shown in his not-quite-a-half-season in 2009, but it's not like we're talking about Mike Cameron here, even by '80s standards.
The polish thing may be true, but since the Pirates probably aren't going to rush Gorkys to the majors the way the Expos did with Grissom, how much does that matter?
In terms of gross skill set, I think they're pretty close. CF with great defense, good contact hitter, runs a lot, doesn't walk much, gap power at best (at least to start).
Pass.
Are we sure that he isn't? There's a lot of play between those two rankings, but he certainly might be the 84th best player in baseball. Good hitting, good fielding cf who is young? He was the best player on the pirates, and will be among the best 3 position players for the Braves.
The Mets do have a good history with acquiring Pirate lefties.
crappy base-stealing record (10 out of 18, this year). I am surprised that these incredibly fast guys in the low minors can't have good stolen base records, through their pure speed alone.
I kind of get this, but really, it's Nate McLouth. Outside of two hot months in 2008, he's a .260/.345/.450 guy without the range to be an asset in CF or the arm to be an asset in RF. That really helps out the Braves where there are now, no doubt, but I don't know how much value it is in general ... even if he's locked in at $5 million/yr for a couple of years. (E.g., When a guy like Ryan Church becomes a free agent, I doubt he'll command $5 million/yr, even though he's a comparable player.)
Plus, Hernandez has been lauded by scouts at times over the years. Not right now, but if he was, guess what, he's right next to Hanson and Heyward and untouchable. From what I understand, Locke is a lefty who sits in the low 90s with a good curve who has put up terrific strikeout and groundball rates the last couple of years. Does he have issues, yes, but if he didn't, guess what, he's right next to Hanson and Heyward and untouchable. When you say, "Well I know we won't get top prospects, but we need someone with impact potential," to me, that is Tabata and Hernandez and Locke. Sure they have a bunch of questions marks and need a lot of seasoning, but if they didn't, they would be top prospects.
I don't blame you for passing on that, Vlad. Ugh. How about Niese, Thole, and a C prospect to be negotiated? And you can have Redding if you want him, too, but you don't have to take him.
That, and very few internet flame wars develop over "well, both teams did okay considering what they're trying to accomplish."
True . . . even though IMHO that happens too be an accurate characterization of the trade. Except I'd unpack it a bit and say the Braves did very well (reflecting the success of their drafting and development, and putting it to good use), and the Pirates did OK.
From UZR and plus/minus, I presume.
However, do I have this right? Fangraphs's UZR, THT's RZR, and Dewan's plus/minus all use Baseball info solutions pbp data?
I've seen it mentioned on the Book blog that MGL still has Stats pbp data. Has he ever commented on how the results differ given differences in the data?
This understates his level of ability by about 20 points of OPS, maybe a bit more if he's got any power development left.
If the Braves had given up the equivalent of Tabata, then I wouldn't be complaining. But, in my opinion, I don't see Hernandez as a B prospect. The Grissom-comp is way off-base. Damon Buford would seem to be a much more likely outcome. And then there's also the fact that the Pirates really don't need a young CF...
As for Locke, the guy's a Single A reliever. I cannot say with absolute certainty that he won't have a decent MLB career, but he's a dime-a-dozen and odds are overwhelming that he'll never amount to anything.
As far as "well the Braves weren't going to part with X, Y, Z and so these guys represent the best of the second tier," then the Pirates shouldn't have traded with the Braves. Plenty of teams could have used a cheap, league-average outfielder. McLouth fills a glaring need for Atlanta, but the Pirates addressed none of their needs. Dumping McLouth for the sake of dumping him was totally unwarranted.
And 94 for 113 (83%) going into the year. (That said, his routes and baserunning technique could use refinement, per the scouting reports).
If memory serves, Grissom was always thought to have more power potential than Hernandez has. (Though Gorky's has gotten ok marks on that front - I've read that he could be a 10-15 HR guy once his frame fills out - he's definitely got more "raw pop" than Blanco).
There's no way I'd give this up for Zach Duke. Yes, Duke is sitting pretty now with a 2.62 ERA. He's also the guy who posted ERAs of 4.82, 5.53 and 4.47 the last three years. He has an unsustainable HR rate, his strikeout rate is in Pelfrey territory, this is his third straight year of a declining GB rate (making that HR rate stand out even more) and he's getting lucky both on BABIP (.270) and strand rate (77%).
Davis and Thole likely won't be stars, but Davis has a .367 OBP with 21 extra-base hits in 181 ABs in the FSL and Thole has a .923 OPS in Double-A and can at least nominally play catcher. That's way too much to give up for a SP with Duke's track record.
He's a starter, has been his whole career. Has the repetoire for the job and everything.
As a BIP-heavy pitcher in front of the worst defense in baseball.
"How about Niese, Thole, and a C prospect to be negotiated?"
That could work, depending on the C prospect in question (you mean C-grade, not catcher, right?). That said, the real-world Mets reportedly refused to include Niese in last year's Bay/Nady talks, so I don't know that they'd put him into a Duke deal.
Heh. I came to this thread to ask the exact same question.
OK - let's use FIP, which doesn't include defense. Duke's FIP the past three seasons have been:
4.40
4.95
4.13
Clearly better but still not anything for which I would trade Thole and Davis
I can't believe this is an argument in favour of the trade for the Pirates. So basically the Pirates traded Mclouth for a bunch of guys that in the best case scenario gives them a player as good as Mclouth. That's the definition of a bad trade.
In order for this to be a trade that makes sense for Pittsburg they have to believe that Hernandez will be better than Mclouth down the road. They've traded value certainty in Mclouth in exchange for prospect uncertainty. There has to be a premium of talent coming back to make up for the significant risk that none of these players will ever be major league regulars. Since, by all accounts, they haven't gotten better talent back then this is a bad trade whose best case scenario is that it raises to the level of pointless.
It seems like a fairly important point. If it's Dan picking the players, I'd believe that there was more talent out there to be had. If it's Omar Minaya, then maybe he means an offer of Ike Davis, Josh Thole, and Tim Redding.
They very well might believe this. A lot of our front office is ex-Tigers staff, and Gorkys was originally a Tigers signee.
Which would be especially important to note if the data inputs to the 3 metrics I mentioned all use the same zones, right?
In order for this to be a trade that makes sense for Pittsburg they have to believe that Hernandez will be better than Mclouth down the road.
What if Morton turns into a decent back of the rotation starter and/or Locke becomes a decent pitcher?
I can't believe I'm agreeing with Gaelen on something...
Yeah, so let's judge a going-long trade RIGHT NOW instead of waiting to see how things pan out! That always works!
Or what [92] just posted, but with actual, like, info.
I certainly don't follow transactions like you guys, but isn't this the direction in which trades are going? Teams don't seem to like to part with prospects. I was surprised at what teams received for Santana and Bay, though I guess impending free agency was a factor there.
The guy has three relief appearances in the last three years. He's a starter ... his #9 PECOTA comp is the guy that Vlad and Sam are negotiating to be the headliner in a Zach Duke trade. His #10 comp is Dontrelle Willis.
Now, those two guys are surrounded by a fair amount of Jung Bong and the wrong Pedro Martinez and the like, but I'd say their appearance speaks to Locke having some sort of impact potential.
Especially if you can turn your current back of the rotation starter into the equivalent of 2003-04 vintage Jason Kendall and current vintage Adam Laroche?
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