Baseball for the Thinking Fan

Login | Register | Feedback

btf_logo
You are here > Home > Transaction Oracle > Discussion
Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Braves - Acquired Vazquez

Atlanta Braves - Acquired P Javier Vazquez and P Boone Logan from the Chicago White Sox for C Tyler Flowers, SS Brent Lillibridge, 3B Jon Gilmore, and P Santos Rodriguez.

Losing Flowers hurts, but the Braves didn’t really want to lose Yunel Escobar and you do have to give up something for a mid-rotation starter signed for 2-years, $23 million in a world in which someone’s going to pay Carlos Silva more for longer.  Vazquez may not have lived up to the breakthrough he showed in 2001, but he’s never truly had a bad season and he’s as likely to be healthy as any pitcher probably can be.  He may still be more a thrower than a pitcher and throws his slider at the wrong times, but he’s a good enough thrower to be valuable to a rotation missing Tim Hudson for at least most of 2009.

Flowers is an excellent prospect and unlike a lot of players at the type, he works on his defense and is successful enough that he doesn’t automatically need to be moved to 1B.  He’s a great pickup for the White Sox and while every team would like to hang onto a player like him, he’s only two years younger than Brian McCann and the Braves aren’t a strong enough organization that they can just hoard players of value.

Boone Logan has a decent fastball that’s very hittable.  A LOOGY that isn’t good enough against lefties to comfortably use as such, he’d be one of the weakest members of the bullpen if he makes the Braves.

Brent Lillibridge was bad enough in 2008 to seriously move him down the prospect charts and Jon Gilmore’s a disappointing 1B prospect that was terrible in a cup of coffee in the Sally League.  Santos Rodriguez is a far, far way off.

ZiPS Projection - Javier Vazquez
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     14 10 31 31 202 190   83 20 57 202 3.70   117  
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Jim Bunning, Mike Mussina

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

ERA   %
Top 1/3 62
Mid 1/3 26
Bot 1/3 12

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   15

<34 6
>

140   21

<45 24
>

130   30

<56 51
>

120   42

<67 75
>

110   57

<79 96
>

100   72

<90 96
>

90   85
>80   95     HR     %
>70   99     <16 30
<22 55
K % <29 87
>202   44     <36 94
>180   67
>157   84
>135   96

(Based on Projected IP)

ZiPS Projection - Tyler Flowers (C)
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       449 52 107 22   0 16   61 44   88   3 .238 .309 .394   82
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Jeff Mathis, Chris Snyder

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %
STAR   7
AVG   31
REP LV 74

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   4     >5     0     >150   0
>130   2     >.350   17
>120   5     >.325   37     2B     %
>110   12     >.300   66     >45   0
>100   25               >30   10
>90   40
>80   58
>60   89

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   0     >.500   4     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   4     >.450   19     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   18     >.400   49     >20   22     >10   0
>.250   37     >.350   82     >10   89

(Based on Projected PA)

ZiPS Projection - Brent Lillibridge (SS)
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       476 63 105 18   2 11   54 31 100   8 .221 .275 .336   58
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Dick Schofield, Worse Alex Gonzalez

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %
STAR   1
AVG   7
REP LV 53

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   0     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   0     >5     12     >150   0
>130   0     >.350   0
>120   0     >.325   3     2B     %
>110   0     >.300   23     >45   0
>100   1               >30   0
>90   4
>80   13
>60   53

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   0     >.500   0     >40   0     >50   2
>.300   0     >.450   1     >30   0     >30   57
>.275   1     >.400   12     >20   9     >10   100
>.250   12     >.350   40     >10   59

(Based on Projected PA)

ZiPS Projection - Boone Logan
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     2   3 68   0   59   63   33   8 26 55 5.03   86
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Bill Bray, Ryan Rowland-Smith

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

ERA   %
Top 1/3 4
Mid 1/3 23
Bot 1/3 73

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   1     <10 0
>140   3     <13 1
>130   5     <16 7
>120   8     <20 18
>110   14     <23 29
>100   25     <26 49
>90   41
>80   63     HR     %
>70   83     <5 16
<7 44
K % <9 55
>59   18     <10 76
>52   42
>46   75
>39   94

(Based on Projected IP)

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 04, 2008 at 10:59 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Related News:

Reader Comments and Retorts

Go to end of page

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. The Wizard Posted: December 05, 2008 at 01:14 AM (#3021196)
Would you say the Sox sold low on Vazquez, Dan?
   2. Juan V Posted: December 05, 2008 at 01:25 AM (#3021201)
That's a flattering set of comps for Vazquez.

Which one is Worse Alex Gonzalez?
   3. MM1f Posted: December 05, 2008 at 01:29 AM (#3021205)
There really isn't anything about Gilmore that is a 1b prospect. Any teenage 3b has a chance to not stick there but the word is that Gilmore's athleticism and arm are better than most.
   4. The Essex Snead Posted: December 05, 2008 at 01:36 AM (#3021213)
Which one is Worse Alex Gonzalez?

Ask Cub fans.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 05, 2008 at 01:42 AM (#3021218)
Should've read 3B (I got it right at the top!).
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 05, 2008 at 02:12 AM (#3021228)
####, that Flowers projection is probably better than what Varitek will hit next year...
   7. David Concepcion de la Desviacion Estandar (Dan R) Posted: December 05, 2008 at 02:16 AM (#3021230)
A 117 ERA+ isn't a "mid-rotation" starter, it's a #1 in a weak rotation or a #2 in a strong one. Does ZiPS take any account of Vázquez's below-average performance with runners on base?
   8. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 05, 2008 at 03:15 AM (#3021252)
A 117 ERA+ isn't a "mid-rotation" starter, it's a #1 in a weak rotation or a #2 in a strong one.

Yeah, that was a little silly - I was still thinking of Vazquez's ERA last year rather than the projection!


Does ZiPS take any account of Vázquez's below-average performance with runners on base?


Only indirectly. I try to not include things that I can't count on getting for everybody.
   9. J. Michael Neal Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:31 AM (#3021325)
Top Comps: Jim Bunning


Is Vazquez even eligible to run for the Senate? If so, he couldn't be any worse.
   10. Mattbert Posted: December 05, 2008 at 12:33 PM (#3021398)
Nice pickup for the Braves. Flowers is the only real prize going the other way here, unless Lillibridge rebounds significantly, and the Braves need a guy in the rotation to give them some innings a lot more than they need another option at catcher in the event of a McCann injury.

Vazquez is reliable in that you know he'll give you 200-ish innings or more, and those innings will be league-average at worst. Best case is that the move back to the NL will help him rebound a bit from last year. He's maintained the ability to strike people out and keep the walks down throughout his career, but he's also got a maddening habit of surrenduring the gopher ball at the worst times. The archetypal Vazquez Good Game is a 3-2 loss characterized by 7 innings of fairly dominant pitching punctuated by a random 3-run homer that drives in 3 of the only 6 baserunners he allows.
   11. John M. Perkins Posted: December 05, 2008 at 04:09 PM (#3021447)
Mid rotation starter comparable to Jim Bunning and Mike Mussina. Cool.
   12. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:21 PM (#3021506)
Maybe I'm drunk, but this deal actually looks good from both sides. The Braves get the starter they want without giving up any pieces that aren't reasonably expendable to them. The White Sox get value out of Vazquez when it was pretty clear that he wasn't going to be back with Ozzie, mainly with Flowers, but Gilmore and Rogriguez are lottery tickets. Lillibridge has been seriously downgraded, but they got Gavin Floyd that way, why not take another flier on a former high-end prospect who's slipped?
   13. Kyle S at work Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:34 PM (#3021515)
I don't think Lillibridge was ever a "high-end" prospect, except by PECOTA.
   14. MM1f Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#3021543)
12,
Agreed. I like/liked Lilli but he was always more "interesting" or "good" as a prospect than studly. Floyd was a former top 5 pick with some serious stuff. Lilli is 5-9 and looks like a goblin. Hes got some nice things about him... he is gritty, athletic, can run and play good D at SS or CF. He's an overachiever who can occasionally hit like a man twice his size but you've got to be pretty damn special from a natural hitting talent standpoint to be able to make his offensive approach (big swing) work at the MLB level when you're that tiny.
He very well might make it work, I could see him having some Khalil Greene kind of years, but that still doesn't make him "high-end" or comparable to a guy drafted in front of Teixera.
   15. MM1f Posted: December 05, 2008 at 05:57 PM (#3021546)
Also, I love Boone Logan from a personal standpoint. 20th round pick from a Texas JUCO who spends THREE DAMN YEARS in the Pioneer League. Has anyone ever spent 3 years in the Pioneer League and still made the bigs? Usually guys who spend even 2 years there get cut the next spring. But then, instead of getting cut, he transforms from Pioneer Leaguer to good AAA pitcher/weak MLB pitcher... that is a helluva jump.
   16. JPWF13 Posted: December 05, 2008 at 06:36 PM (#3021582)
That ERA+ is higher than his a career average (105)
It's higher than 4 of his last 5 years
His peripherals are as good as ever, and he has the peripherals of a 115+ ERA+ pitcher...
but he just rarely gets there...

From 2004-08 he's given up 41 more runs than ERP says he "should" have
The pitcher with the biggest discrepancy is Lowe, other way- Oswalt (look at Lowe's and Oswalt's OPS+ allowed 2004-08- the same, yet Oswalt's ERA+ is 135 and Lowe's 114 over that period)

If* deviation from ERP (or RC or baseruns) for a pitcher is luck related, whoever gets Lowe might be pleasantly surprised- his batting line allowed is that of an elite pitcher...

*Mighty big IF there.
   17. Robert in Manhattan Beach Posted: December 06, 2008 at 01:06 AM (#3021914)
Well the Braves have been trying to get Vasquez since he was an Expo, so they are persistent if nothing else. Pretty cruel to trade L'ilbridge right before his Winter Formal though.
   18. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 06, 2008 at 04:24 PM (#3022058)
I remember those Vazquez from the Expos to the Braves rumors, but I can't remember who the Expos wanted. Anyone remember?
   19. Barnaby Jones Posted: December 06, 2008 at 07:42 PM (#3022120)
Horacio Ramirez, I believe.
   20. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 06, 2008 at 07:55 PM (#3022127)
I suppose it's possible that in a bigger park and a weaker league, he'll come closer to having his performance match his peripherals, but I'll believe it when I see it.
   21. Quinton McCracken's BFF Posted: December 06, 2008 at 10:40 PM (#3022168)
Horacio Ramirez, I believe.

Sounds right, Omar Minaya was in charge at the time

You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.

 

 

<< Back to main

BBTF Partner

Support BBTF

donate

Thanks to
greenback calls it soccer
for his generous support.

Bookmarks

You must be logged in to view your Bookmarks.

Syndicate

Page rendered in 0.4762 seconds
66 querie(s) executed