Brewers - Acquired Koskie
Milwaukee Brewers - Acquired 3B Corey Koskie from the Toronto Blue Jays for P Brian Wolfe.
I’ve liked a lot of things the Blue Jays have done this offseason. This isn’t one of them.
Troy Glaus wants to play 3rd. Considering the fact that they’re already weakening their infield defense with the loss of Orlando Hudson, they really needed to keep their best defensive 3rd baseman on the team and starting at 3rd. If things couldn’t be worked out with Troy Glaus on a move to 1B or DH, then the Jays really shouldn’t have pulled the trigger on the trade. That they did anyway and appear to be letting Glaus stay at 3rd has hurt the team and limited the gain that the pickup of Glaus would make.
Corey Koskie had a disappointing, injury-filled 2005 season. I can understand a team trying to contend not wanting to take a chance on Koskie if they can give him away, but the Blue Jays are paying the vast majority of Koskie’s contract to not play for them. If they’re not saving a heap of dough (it appears the Brewers are only paying 4-5 million of the remaining 2 years!) then it’s a far better idea to play Koskie at 3rd and hope he returns to being a quality player. And before 2005, he was undoubtedly a quality player - every year from 1999-2004 was at least a very good season for Koskie.
For the Brewers, there’s nothing to dislike about this pickup. They get a high-upside 3B for much less than they would pay on the open market (2 years, $4-5 million total) and for that bargain, only give up a waiver-wire pitcher who is unlikely to ever help a major league team.
Thumbs up for Doug Melvin. ZiPS likes this trade better than I do.
2006 ZiPS Projection - Corey Koskie
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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402 54 95 23 1 14 53 55 105 5 .236 .336 .403
2006 ZiPS Projection - Brian Wolfe
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
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3 5 36 3 66 73 38 9 26 32 5.18
Dan Szymborski
Posted: January 08, 2006 at 07:37 PM |
35 comment(s)
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1. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: January 08, 2006 at 09:49 PM (#1811533)A Koskie/Hall platoon at third (with Hall getting additional time at short and second) is an improvement over Hall playing 150+ games at third, IMHO. If the Brewers were paying Koskie's entire contract, I wouldn't be so high on picking him up. But for $2M/yr for the next two years (plus half his 2008 buyout), he's a very useful addition. The trick for both maximizing his value and avoiding his 2008 option from vesting to make sure that he gets less than 400 PA over the next two years*.
*-according to Cots, his $6.5M option vests with either 600 PA in 2006 or 2007, or with 1200 PA total from 2005-07. He had 404 PA in 2005, so that leaves 796 (398/yr) left for 2006-7.
I'd rather have a run-preventing defense than a lumbering ball-crushing DH playing in my infield.
Is it also better than a Branyan/Hall platoon?
Depends. Koskie is .287/.388/.504 over the last three years vs RHP, while Branyan is .249/.366/.518, so that's a slight advantage to Koskie which grows when you take into consideration his defense. Branyan is signed for 800K + 400K in incentives, so the salary difference is about a million dollars. Worth paying for the defense, I think.
There's also the question of whether Bill Hall's platoon splits, and indeed his stats in general, from last year are legit. He hit .336/.407/.560 vs lefties against only .277/.319/.473 vs righties, but he'd hit righties better every other year of his career.
Someone at battersbox had an interesting observation on Glaus' defence, commentating that because he's occaisionally erractic with his throws, he looks a lot worse than he actually is.
I think this maximizes Hall's value. The infield has three question marks -- an injury-prone third baseman, a shaky second-year SS and a rookie 2B. Hall should get plenty of at-bats filling in for those three positions at various points rather than locking him it at one.
Any future projections need to keep that in mind. I love the guy, but he plays the game like a hockey player ( which he was as a former D-1 goalie with Minny-Duluth), with a reckless abandon that has destroyed his body.
Baseball is a game that requires pacing over its 190 game odd ( including exhibition) schedule, Koskie just can't seem to do that.
On the other hand, having too many good players is not usually a problem. Branyan looks better than one or two starting 3bs and could quite easily bring in something the Brewers need more in a trade during the season. And I don't think the Brewers will miss Brian Wolfe. So from my point of view, it's a great trade for Milwaukee.
As for Toronto, I really have very little faith in JP. To have Glaus at 3rd at the expense of losing Hudson, Koskie and Batista must surely weaken the team and is costing them millions for the privilege. While Milwaukee have Hall and Branyan on the bench, the Jays have Hill and Adams starting without much cover.
For much of the season, he'd start at 2B one day, SS the next, etc. He's not likely to be picking splinters out of his rear end this year, if still a Brewer.
That being said, he was playing the entire season with a sore ligament behind his left knee, which pretty much meant he couldn't bend his knee much, if at all. He took several cortisone shots to the knee, but those didn't really help. The doctors assured him tho that his knee would be fully healthy with 8-10 weeks of rest, so he should be better next year. And he wasn't helped out by the fact that AZ had Royce Clayton next to him, whose range is probably worse than Troy's. Those two were horrendous together.
Is that a joke? Clayton has very good range. When I saw him he looked good, his reputation is good, and strat-o-matic says he is good.
Clayton WAS better than Renteria, at least. I'm disappointed the Dbacks couldn't trade him for SaltDog. You know Clayton's gonna age better than Renteria... at least <a href="http://www.store44.com/irvinserrano/sports/irvinserranoS14.jpg"]Clayton[/url] isn't a fake like his siblings.
Overall, the zone rating rankings look about right, so I guess Clayton really is a poor fielder. Either my eyes deceived me, or Clayton just had a few good defensive games when I happened to be watching. I know that I should not base my thoughts about players on limited observation, but it is influencing.
Since then, he's gotten old.
Again, it's not an extra 2 million, as Koskie and Branyan are mutually exclusive. Branyan is making between 800K and 1.2M this year, so it's approximately an extra million.
I don't think that's necessarily true. Branyan would be an excellent bat off the bench and can "play" LF and 1B. If I'm Melvin, I'd keep Branyan around and have him and Hall become supersubs playing 4-5 times a week.
while visions of Kielty's platoon-mate danced in their heads
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