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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 25, 2006

Brewers - Signed Suppan

Milwaukee Brewers - Signed P Jeff Suppan to a 4-year contract.

This comes in at 42 million and I think I’d rather have Suppan than most of the other pitcher that have signed in that neighborhood this offseason.  I’d take Suppan over Padilla or Meche in a heartbeat and I’d certainly pay 3 million more a year for Suppan over the Marquis de Bad.  Suppan fills a hole that the Doug Davis trade opened up and with a solid, though unsexy rotation (with the obvious exception being Ben Sheets, the only pitcher in history to K more than 1 an inning and walk less than 1 per game as he did in 2006).  Suppan has never had a star season, but he’s been an average or better starter each of the last 8 years.

2007 ZiPS Projection -  Jeff Suppan
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 11 10 29 29 177 191   86 23 59 95 4.37
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 15   8 32 32 199 199   81 20 59 114 3.66
Pes. (15%)  7 11 25 25 143 167   85 25 53 74 5.35
———————————————————————————————

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 25, 2006 at 02:16 AM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. bibigon Posted: December 25, 2006 at 03:43 AM (#2268277)
I'd take Suppan over Padilla or Meche in a heartbeat


I think this is an underestimation of the league differential. I would be expect to see Suppan post an ERA higher than Meche's if he was with the Royals. Suppan's 32-35 seasons vs. Meche's 28-31 seasons? I'd be pretty happily take Meche at comparable dollars. Now with Meche, you're getting an additional year at $13M tapped onto the end, so the overall contracts may be similar in quality(although I still lean towards Meche).

with the obvious exception being Ben Sheets, the only pitcher in history to K more than 1 an inning and walk less than 1 per game as he did in 2006).


Didn't Schilling do this in 2002?
   2. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 25, 2006 at 04:12 AM (#2268283)
Didn't Schilling do this in 2002?

I mean BB/9. Sheets is the only one with 50 innings to do it in history. To get another one, you have to go way down to some 19th century guy whose name escapes me that did it in 20 or so and then you drop down to people with just a handful of innings.
   3. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 25, 2006 at 04:13 AM (#2268286)
Sheets averaged less than 1 walk per 9 innings. That's what Dan means. Schilling didn't do that.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: December 25, 2006 at 05:18 AM (#2268312)
I mean BB/9.


That had me confused as well. I read "game" as "start". Dan means "BB/9". You should be more explicit here, Dan. You keep testing Curt Schilling's patience...
   5. Walt Davis Posted: December 25, 2006 at 07:50 PM (#2268465)
I think this is an underestimation of the league differential. I would be expect to see Suppan post an ERA higher than Meche's if he was with the Royals. Suppan's 32-35 seasons vs. Meche's 28-31 seasons?

And I think you're underestimating the differential between the two pitchers. Suppan has thrown 188 or more innings for 8 straight years; he's had an ERA+ of 105 or higher in 3 of the last 4 years. A quick Marcel puts him at a 110 ERA+, so even with a 10% differential between the leagues, that makes him average in the AL.

Meche meanwhile has touched the 188 region twice and has never had an above-average full season.

The only reason to like Meche over Suppan is age.
   6. Astro-Bonilla Posted: December 25, 2006 at 08:04 PM (#2268474)
And I think you're underestimating the differential between the two pitchers
I think you are underestimating how much of a positive impact the great range of the Cardinals defense has had on Suppan's ERA.

Anyway, this signing would be fine, if the Brewers weren't pushing another pitcher who is quite a bit better than replacement level out of the rotation (Villanueva). I'd rather have Padilla or Lilly, but this deal is better than the Eaton or Marquis signing, and much better than giving up a pile of young quality for one year of Jennings.
   7. tfbg9 Posted: December 25, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2268477)
Let's not forget Jeff's baserunning brilliance--as a Red Sox fan, I feel this needs to be pointed out whenever Suppan is evaluated.
   8. DCW3 Posted: December 25, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#2268484)
Let's not forget Jeff's baserunning brilliance--as a Red Sox fan, I feel this needs to be pointed out whenever Suppan is evaluated.

Yes, but if Steve Trachsel signs with an NL Central team, then Suppan will make up for his baserunning with his Ruthian displays of power.
   9. frannyzoo Posted: December 25, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2268492)
Meche has a career home/away split of 3.91/5.34 and was 3.76/5.14 (somewhat in line with another M's bust Joel Pineiro at 3.92/5.08). Meche is headed, imho, toward a solid 5.50 pitching for the Royals. Suppan is no great shakes, but there's no question who I would take between the two.
   10. frannyzoo Posted: December 25, 2006 at 09:22 PM (#2268506)
sorry, forgot to put 2006 after the 3.76/5.14 above. And I forgot to mention that Meche almost NEVER makes it past the 6th inning. Man, what a stupid signing at 5/$55M.
   11. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 26, 2006 at 10:15 PM (#2268933)
"The only reason to like Meche over Suppan is age."

That and stuff.
   12. The Fallen Reputation of Billy Jo Robidoux Posted: June 15, 2010 at 03:11 PM (#3559713)
This comes in at 42 million and I think I'd rather have Suppan than most of the other pitcher that have signed in that neighborhood this offseason. I'd take Suppan over Padilla or Meche in a heartbeat and I'd certainly pay 3 million more a year for Suppan over the Marquis de Bad.


07-10 YTD WAR:
Suppan- 2.3, -.4, -1.9, -.8 = 0
Padilla- -.9, 1, .4, .6, -.6 = .5
Meche- 4.9, 3.8, .7, -.9 = 10.3
Marquis- .4, 1.6, 3.1, -1.6 = 3.5

Royals FTW?
   13. Mr. Bouton's Greenie Fetish Posted: June 15, 2010 at 03:36 PM (#3559734)
Marquis- .4, 1.6, 3.1, -1.6 = 3.5


I know that's what BREF says, but in what world is 191 IP of 100 ERA+ ball worth only .4 WAR?
   14. Famous Original Joe C Posted: June 15, 2010 at 04:20 PM (#3559777)
I know that's what BREF says, but in what world is 191 IP of 100 ERA+ ball worth only .4 WAR?

A lot of unearned runs - his RA was 5.21 that year, against a league average of 4.78.

That's just a guess, by the way.

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