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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Cardinals - Signed Westbrook

St. Louis Cardinals - Signed P Jake Westbrook to a 2-year, $16.5 million contract.

I was shocked when ZiPS told me Jake Westbrook just turned 33.  Apparently, I’m getting senile as I quickly approach middle-age because I think of Westbrook as a Yankee prospect a million years ago along with Sam Militello and Sterling Hitchcock.  But apparently that was a decade earlier.  I’m losing decades now?

It’s a bit of an overpay, but I think this is going to common with any starting pitcher signings this offseason as the starter market after Cliff Lee is thinner than the plot to Lethal Weapon 5.  Jorge de la Rosa is going to get a surprisingly ridiculous amount of money in the next month or so.

St. Louis is a good place to be for Westbrook, thanks to that creepy mojo that Dave Duncan has with older pitchers, kind of a creepy reverse Children of the Corn thing.  ZiPS doesn’t believe in the supernatural, so I expect Westbrook will beat both the inning totals and ERA. 

ZiPS Projection - Jake Westbrook
—————————————————————————————————
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
—————————————————————————————————
2011     6   5 17 17 101.3 102   47 10 36 65 4.11   97
2012     5   5 17 17 98.2 100   47 10 35 60 4.29   93  
—————————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  Dennis Martinez, Pat Hentgen, Brett Tomko

ODDIBE (Odds of Important Baseball Events)

ERA
Top 1/3 21%
Mid 1/3 51%
Bot 1/3 28%

ERA+        BB
>150   1%

<1.5 0%
>

140   2%

<2.0 3%
>

130   5%

<2.5 18%
>

120   11%

<3.0 43%
>

110   21%

<3.5 75%
>

100   40%

<4.0 93%
>

90   72%
>80   92%    HR
>70   99%    <0.7 32%
<1.0 66%
K/9 <1.3 93%
>9     1%    <1.6 99%
>8     1%
>7     5%
>6     27%

(Based on Projected IP)

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 17, 2010 at 06:43 PM | 6 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Walt Davis Posted: November 17, 2010 at 07:38 PM (#3692097)
As I pointed out in the other thread, how he gets 2/$16 while Garland has been relegated to 1-year contracts totaling $11 M the last 2 seasons is inexplicable. It's doubly so since Westbrook essentially didn't pitch in 2008 or 2009. Of course maybe this will be the offseason that Garland gets 2/$20.
   2. steagles Posted: November 17, 2010 at 09:59 PM (#3692241)
thinner than the plot to Lethal Weapon 5
beautiful.
   3. Meramec Posted: November 18, 2010 at 07:20 PM (#3692939)
Pat Hentgen! I love it! I remember fondly his year in STL. Great to see him and Westbrook linked. (I'll pretend I didn't see the Tomko comparison.)

Westbrook signed a 3/30 extension with CLE in 07 while Garland signed his 3/30 deal a year earlier. So the only reason Westbrook got $20 the last two years was because of the 07 extension. Westbrook's current deal, if it's higher than what Garland gets, may be because after a month of getting to know Duncan, et al that the Cardinals are more comfortable with him than someone like Garland who they'd have to observe from afar. Also, they traded Ludwick to get Westbrook and the extension means Mozeliak can point to three years of Westbrook for two months of Ludwick as a good deal for STL. Garland doesn't have either the "we know you" or the "we traded a popular player for you" angles to help increase his payday. It's also relevant that Mozeliak gave Lohse 4/48 so he's got a thing for what he perceives as slightly-below-average no-upside dependability for the rotation.
   4. asdf1234 Posted: November 19, 2010 at 07:33 AM (#3693440)
Though Hentgen was about as washed up as a former Cy Young winner can be by the time he arrived in St. Louis, he was a lot of fun to watch.

My favorite Hentgen trait was his habit of throwing the ball at hitters when they called time in the middle of his windup.
   5. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: November 19, 2010 at 07:37 AM (#3693441)
My favorite Hentgen trait was his habit of throwing the ball at hitters when they called time in the middle of his windup.


This was awesome. I'm surprised more pitchers don't do it.
   6. Accent Shallow Posted: November 19, 2010 at 11:00 AM (#3693458)
This was awesome. I'm surprised more pitchers don't do it.

Josh Beckett did this to Bobby Abreu this past year and almost caused a riot.

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