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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, December 08, 2008

Cardinals - Acquired Greene

St. Louis Cardinals - Acquired SS Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres for P Mark Worrell and a player to be named.

Thank goodness this one’s real.  I’ve had 3 half-written entries in the last week that I had to close because they turned out to be either not real or not as far advanced as expressed by the media.

The Padres are probably mildly surprised at the return in this trade, being that most of the rumors had them trying to hide Khalil Greene into a Jake Peavy deal as a condition of landing one of the best starters around.

From Greene’s career profile, you’d think that he had a Cuban birth certificate, with his OBP slowly falling from the .349 of his rookie season to a miserable .260 OBP in 2008.  Not the first time Greene’s fooled anyone either, as a starting member of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.

There are reasons to think Greene’s not done.  He’s a very good defensive player, was playing in a bad-hitting park, and does have a good amount of power.  Plus, 2008 was unusually bad for him.  Greene has enough power and defense, in fact, that he’s probably a good player for the Cardinals with an OBP in the .300-.320 range, so he doesn’t need to get back to .350 to help out the Cards.  The Padres, with the Moores drama and rebuilding, aren’t really in a position where they want to pay $6.5 million to find out.

Mark Worrell might be better, perhaps by a good deal, than the projection says - he took such an unusually large step up in 2008 (80 K in 58.2 innings!) in a not-BABIP department.  I’m not sure if he had a new pitch or something (hopefully someone can enlighten me).  He’s certainly earned a chance, which he’ll get on the budget-conscious Padres.

I hate to say it, but this is a reasonable trade for both sides given their relative chances of being playoff teams in 2009. 

ZiPS Projection - Khalil Greene (SS)
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       453 59 113 29   2 17   65 31   91   5 .249 .303 .435   92
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Frank Duffy, Eddie Miller

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %
STAR   19
AVG   54
REP LV 97

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   0     >10   1     >200   0
>140   0     >.375   0     >5     4     >150   0
>130   1     >.350   2
>120   3     >.325   21     2B     %
>110   12     >.300   59     >45   0
>100   31               >30   47
>90   57
>80   79
>60   98

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   0     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   0     >.500   7     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   0     >.450   35     >30   0     >30   0
>.275   11     >.400   79     >20   24     >10   2
>.250   46     >.350   98     >10   98

(Based on Projected PA)

 

ZiPS Projection - Mark Worrell
————————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-
2009     4   4 58   0   67   63   32   8 33 62 4.30   92
————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Jim York, Neil Allen

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

ERA   %
Top 1/3 7
Mid 1/3 30
Bot 1/3 63

ERA+  %    BB     %
>150   3

<11 0
>

140   5

<15 0
>

130   8

<19 0
>

120   14

<22 8
>

110   22

<26 24
>

100   35

<30 35
>

90   52
>80   71     HR     %
>70   90     <5 18
<7 41
K % <10 67
>67   37     <12 81
>60   61
>52   87
>45   98

(Based on Projected IP)

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2008 at 03:27 PM | 12 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

   1. Hurdle's Heroes (SuperBaes) Posted: December 08, 2008 at 05:05 PM (#3022831)
ODDIBE just makes my day.
   2. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 08, 2008 at 05:17 PM (#3022840)
How many relieving Worrells are there?
   3. villageidiom Posted: December 08, 2008 at 05:19 PM (#3022843)
Top Comps: Frank Duffy
shudder

I hated* Frank Duffy. Maybe it's because he made 7 errors in 19 starts at SS for Boston in 1978, or that he could never, ever hit. Perhaps it was because any start by Duffy in 1978 was a sign that a far superior player was still injured. I was 8 years old, but I knew crap when I saw it.

Mentioning Bucky Dent won't get a rise out of me. Mention Frank Duffy and I start seething.

* As a player. I'm sure he's a fine human being.
   4. jwb Posted: December 08, 2008 at 05:55 PM (#3022869)
How many relieving Worrells are there?
All of them except for Bernie.
   5. Pujols Shot Ya Posted: December 08, 2008 at 06:08 PM (#3022879)
This one's not related. He throw's side-armish to righties and over the top to lefties. Enjoy.
   6. greenback likes millwall Posted: December 08, 2008 at 06:21 PM (#3022890)
I hated* Frank Duffy.

How do you think Giants fans felt about him?
   7. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: December 08, 2008 at 06:22 PM (#3022891)
Is there any chance that you could provide links to players bb-ref.com pages? I like to look at the stats and see players' ages. It isn't much of an inconveniece with "search google" plugin but links would save one click. I would understand if it is too much of a nuisance for you.
   8. DCW3 Posted: December 08, 2008 at 08:34 PM (#3023121)
After his first two appearances in the majors, covering three innings, Mark Worrell had a 0.00 ERA and a 5.000 OPS. Talk about peaking early.
   9. bjhanke Posted: December 09, 2008 at 04:27 AM (#3023545)
Dan -

Just to ask, because I don't know, are the ZIPS quoted here based on the players' new ballparks or their old ones?

Thanks, Brock Hanke
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2008 at 06:27 AM (#3023598)
New parks!
   11. louproctor Posted: December 09, 2008 at 01:00 PM (#3023645)
how is greene a great defender? from UZR to dewan . . . i just do not see him being rated as, at best, average. is there something these metrics are missing?
   12. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 10, 2008 at 05:27 AM (#3024582)
Greene's probably an above-average defender if fully healthy. The problem is that he has seldom been 100% in his MLB career.

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