Cardinals - Acquired Greene

St. Louis Cardinals - Acquired SS Khalil Greene from the San Diego Padres for P Mark Worrell and a player to be named.

Thank goodness this one’s real.  I’ve had 3 half-written entries in the last week that I had to close because they turned out to be either not real or not as far advanced as expressed by the media.

The Padres are probably mildly surprised at the return in this trade, being that most of the rumors had them trying to hide Khalil Greene into a Jake Peavy deal as a condition of landing one of the best starters around.

From Greene’s career profile, you’d think that he had a Cuban birth certificate, with his OBP slowly falling from the .349 of his rookie season to a miserable .260 OBP in 2008.  Not the first time Greene’s fooled anyone either, as a starting member of the Reggie Cleveland All-Stars.

There are reasons to think Greene’s not done.  He’s a very good defensive player, was playing in a bad-hitting park, and does have a good amount of power.  Plus, 2008 was unusually bad for him.  Greene has enough power and defense, in fact, that he’s probably a good player for the Cardinals with an OBP in the .300-.320 range, so he doesn’t need to get back to .350 to help out the Cards.  The Padres, with the Moores drama and rebuilding, aren’t really in a position where they want to pay $6.5 million to find out.

Mark Worrell might be better, perhaps by a good deal, than the projection says - he took such an unusually large step up in 2008 (80 K in 58.2 innings!) in a not-BABIP department.  I’m not sure if he had a new pitch or something (hopefully someone can enlighten me).  He’s certainly earned a chance, which he’ll get on the budget-conscious Padres.

I hate to say it, but this is a reasonable trade for both sides given their relative chances of being playoff teams in 2009. 

ZiPS Projection - Khalil Greene (SS)
—————————————————————————————————————-

              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-

2009         453  59 113  29   2  17   65  31   91   5 .249 .303 .435   92
—————————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Frank Duffy, Eddie Miller

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

Offense %

STAR    19

AVG     54

REP LV  97

OPS+    %       OBP     %       3B      %       Hits    %

>160    0       >.400   0       >10     1       >200    0

>140    0       >.375   0       >5      4       >150    0

>130    1       >.350   2

>120    3       >.325   21      2B      %

>110    12      >.300   59      >45     0

>100    31                      >30     47

>90     57

>80     79

>60     98

BA      %       SLG     %       HR      %       SB      %

>.350   0       >.550   0       >50     0       >70     0

>.325   0       >.500   7       >40     0       >50     0

>.300   0       >.450   35      >30     0       >30     0

>.275   11      >.400   79      >20     24      >10     2

>.250   46      >.350   98      >10     98

(Based on Projected PA)

ZiPS Projection - Mark Worrell
————————————————————————————————-

            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+
————————————————————————————————-

2009        4   4  58   0   67   63   32   8  33  62  4.30    92
————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Jim York, Neil Allen

ODDIBE - Odds of Important Baseball Events

ERA     %

Top 1/3 7

Mid 1/3 30

Bot 1/3 63

ERA+    %       BB      %

>150    3
<11     0

>
140    5   
<15     0

>
130    8   
<19     0

>
120    14   
<22     8

>
110    22   
<26     24

>
100    35   
<30     35

>
90     52

>80     71      HR      %

>70     90      <5      18

                <7      41

K       %       <10     67

>67     37      <12     81

>60     61

>52     87

>45     98

(Based on Projected IP)