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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Cardinals/Red Sox - Swapped Duncan/Lugo

St. Louis Cardinals - Acquired SS Julio Lugo from the Boston Red Sox for 1B-OF Chris Duncan.

Lugo’s been terrible defensively in limited time at shortstop, but I think the Red Sox were too quick to push him out the door.  They don’t have much depth at SS and Lowrie’s ability to play, coming off recent wrist surgery, is still very much in the air, especially after playing very poorly in his rehab stint.  Seriously, if Nick Green goes down and Lowrie isn’t back to where he was, what’s the plan?  Ivan Ochoa?  Lugo’s probably simply below-average defensively rather than all-world horrible and he’s hit enough that he has value.  From the way some Red Sox fans talk about Lugo, you’d think he was hitting like Tony Pena Jr.

For the Red Sox, the interest in Duncan is past this year.  Even if Duncan’s offense had returned, having LaRoche and Duncan on the roster at the same time would be kind of redundant until rosters are expanded.  As noted, Duncan hasn’t been the same since repeated back problems and it’s a very real question if h’ll ever be the player he was a few years ago.

For the Cardinals, Greene’s issues have caused the team to unexpectedly have Brendan Ryan as the full-time shortstop and to be honest, given that Ryan’s played well defensively this season, I don’t actually think Lugo would be an upgrade as a starter, though he has value as a role player.  There’s no real platoon opportunity either.

In other words, this is kind of a meh trade for both sides.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Chris Duncan
——————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   260   25   59 15   2   5   32   41   67   0 .227 .329 .358
Rest-of-Year   157   20   41 10   1   6   25   22   43   1 .259 .350 .440
——————————————————————————————————————
Total       417   45 100 25   3 11   57   63 110   1 .239 .337 .389

 


2009 ZIPS Projection - Julio Lugo
——————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   109   16   31   4   1   1   8   12   18   3 .284 .352 .367
Rest-of-Year   141   19   37   7   0   2   13   14   27   7 .259 .331 .354
——————————————————————————————————————
Total       250   35   68 11   1   3   21   26   45 10 .270 .340 .360

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 23, 2009 at 02:04 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 23, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3264933)
Nick Green goes down and Lowrie isn't back to where he was, what's the plan? Ivan Ochoa?


How many teams have three acceptable major-league options at SS?

Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.
   2. Mattbert Posted: July 23, 2009 at 08:09 PM (#3264956)
It seems like this was a case of two teams exchanging players who had simply become unrosterable for reasons not strictly related to performance on the field. Neither "acquisition" makes a ton of sense, yet both sets of fans on Primer seem to be relieved.
   3. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 23, 2009 at 08:34 PM (#3265030)
How many teams have three acceptable major-league options at SS?

Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.


Well, the Red Sox could have used Lugo as a utility player with very limited starts while seeing how Lowrie was doing. Unless they believe they have seen enough.

His bat was about the same last year as this year. Decent OBP and no power.
   4. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 23, 2009 at 08:46 PM (#3265074)
How many teams have three acceptable major-league options at SS?


The problem is that they don't know if they have that. There was no urgent need to have Chris Duncan playing for Pawtucket while Lowrie's status is up in the air. They may feel he's healthy, but wrist injuries have a way of hampering a player for quite a while and Lowrie's done nothing as of yet to demonstrate that his play is back.
   5. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2009 at 09:12 PM (#3265131)

Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.


A .355 OBA in each of the last two years. You could do a lot worse at shortstop. Say, Yuniesky Betancourt.

I don't really get why they had to make a move right now. Nick Green isn't particularly good - send him to the minors to make room for Lowrie. If you lose him - oh well. Its not that hard to find utility infielders who can post a .680 OPS. I agree with Dan, I would have at least waited til Lowrie had proven he was healthy and good again before shuttling Lugo off. I think BoSox fans are just pleased with the move because Lugo looks awful, but I don't think that necessarily means the Sox should get rid of him.
   6. Walt Davis Posted: July 23, 2009 at 09:16 PM (#3265138)
I'll admit I'm confused by the "relief" felt by Cards fans. The Cards could stash Duncan at AAA just as easily as the Red Sox, they didn't need to trade him to provide the relief. Which isn't to say it's not a good trade for the Cards (it certainly has more potential to help them this season), just that I don't understand the source of Cards' fans relief. Not that it matters really.

The reports I heard were that the Sox are picking up all the money but also that the Cards are also giving up a "PTBNL or cash considerations." Wonder how big the potential cash considerations are. Anyway, sounds like one of those clauses that's essentially a gentleman's agreement along the lines of "if Lugo actually plays well and/or Duncan is toast due to injury, we'll make it up to you."
   7. CraigK Posted: July 23, 2009 at 09:58 PM (#3265198)
I'll admit I'm confused by the "relief" felt by Cards fans

TLR is one of the worst managers I've seen at playing guys that suck over better options. Despite the fact Duncan's BA this month began with a ".0" La Russa would have continued to let him start and suck over other, better options. The only way Duncan wasn't starting was if he was traded.
   8. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 24, 2009 at 01:19 PM (#3265419)
Despite the fact Duncan's BA this month began with a ".0" La Russa would have continued to let him start and suck over other, better options. The only way Duncan wasn't starting was if he was traded.


Bernie Miklasz nailed this pretty well, I think.

-- MWE
   9. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: July 24, 2009 at 03:28 PM (#3265536)
I think the Sox are looking at it as a .720 OPS shortstop with horrendous defense of a .650 OPS SS with adequate defense and decided to go with the glove. Watching Lugo I imagine the Sox felt there was a better chance of Green approximating Lugo's offense than there was of Lugo approximating Green's defense.
   10. Dr Love Posted: July 24, 2009 at 03:33 PM (#3265538)
TLR is one of the worst managers I've seen at playing guys that suck over better options.


Bobby Cox would like to have a word with you.
   11. RJ in TO Posted: July 24, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3265541)
Bernie Miklasz nailed this pretty well, I think.


I like his take on it, and it seems reasonable, but the smile he's wearing in that picture makes me think that he just fooled someone with the "Pull my finger!" gag right before it was taken.
   12. greenback calls it soccer Posted: July 24, 2009 at 03:44 PM (#3265544)
In theory Lugo could platoon with Schumaker at 2b. In practice he also could end up getting the Russ Branyan treatment, since nobody's ever figured out how La Russa makes these decisions about playing time.
   13. Golfing Great Mitch Cumstein Posted: July 24, 2009 at 03:57 PM (#3265554)
I don't think Lugo is up for 2b. His legs are bad and there is too much movement around the bag for him to be good on the double play. He has screwed up a couple of double plays at short because he couldn't get his feet ready.
   14. NorthernTouch Posted: July 26, 2009 at 05:10 AM (#3267259)
I'm looking into my crystal ball and I see Scutaro in a Red Sox Uni.
   15. cardsfanboy Posted: July 26, 2009 at 05:26 AM (#3267263)
Bernie Miklasz nailed this pretty well, I think.

I agree with the premise, but the reality is that the GM could have sent the kid to the minors and it would have prevented TLR from playing.
   16. OCD SS Posted: July 26, 2009 at 12:07 PM (#3267291)
I'm looking into my crystal ball and I see Scutaro in a Red Sox Uni.


I doubt it. His numbers look really flukey on the surface. He's over 60 points of OPS above his next best career year and almost 100 above his career line. I could see his numbers normalizing with a crash in the second half. The Jays probably want a decent amount for him, but the Sox only need him to be a part time player.

I think Jack Wilson makes a lot more sense. Pick him up his glove and replace Nick Green.
   17. tfbg9 Posted: July 27, 2009 at 09:30 PM (#3269109)
Naturally, Lugo's doing his Babe Ruth in the 1928 WS imitation down there...
   18. UCCF Posted: July 27, 2009 at 09:55 PM (#3269154)
TLR is one of the worst managers I've seen at playing guys that suck over better options.

Bobby Cox would like to have a word with you.


Dusty Baker wants you off his podium. There can be only one.

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