Cardinals/Red Sox - Swapped Duncan/Lugo
St. Louis Cardinals - Acquired SS Julio Lugo from the Boston Red Sox for 1B-OF Chris Duncan.
Lugo’s been terrible defensively in limited time at shortstop, but I think the Red Sox were too quick to push him out the door. They don’t have much depth at SS and Lowrie’s ability to play, coming off recent wrist surgery, is still very much in the air, especially after playing very poorly in his rehab stint. Seriously, if Nick Green goes down and Lowrie isn’t back to where he was, what’s the plan? Ivan Ochoa? Lugo’s probably simply below-average defensively rather than all-world horrible and he’s hit enough that he has value. From the way some Red Sox fans talk about Lugo, you’d think he was hitting like Tony Pena Jr.
For the Red Sox, the interest in Duncan is past this year. Even if Duncan’s offense had returned, having LaRoche and Duncan on the roster at the same time would be kind of redundant until rosters are expanded. As noted, Duncan hasn’t been the same since repeated back problems and it’s a very real question if h’ll ever be the player he was a few years ago.
For the Cardinals, Greene’s issues have caused the team to unexpectedly have Brendan Ryan as the full-time shortstop and to be honest, given that Ryan’s played well defensively this season, I don’t actually think Lugo would be an upgrade as a starter, though he has value as a role player. There’s no real platoon opportunity either.
In other words, this is kind of a meh trade for both sides.
2009 ZIPS Projection - Chris Duncan
——————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date 260 25 59 15 2 5 32 41 67 0 .227 .329 .358
Rest-of-Year 157 20 41 10 1 6 25 22 43 1 .259 .350 .440
——————————————————————————————————————
Total 417 45 100 25 3 11 57 63 110 1 .239 .337 .389
2009 ZIPS Projection - Julio Lugo
——————————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date 109 16 31 4 1 1 8 12 18 3 .284 .352 .367
Rest-of-Year 141 19 37 7 0 2 13 14 27 7 .259 .331 .354
——————————————————————————————————————
Total 250 35 68 11 1 3 21 26 45 10 .270 .340 .360
Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: July 23, 2009 at 02:04 PM |
18 comment(s)
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1. Drew (Primakov, Gungho Iguanas) Posted: July 23, 2009 at 07:58 PM (#3264933)How many teams have three acceptable major-league options at SS?
Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.
Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.
Well, the Red Sox could have used Lugo as a utility player with very limited starts while seeing how Lowrie was doing. Unless they believe they have seen enough.
His bat was about the same last year as this year. Decent OBP and no power.
The problem is that they don't know if they have that. There was no urgent need to have Chris Duncan playing for Pawtucket while Lowrie's status is up in the air. They may feel he's healthy, but wrist injuries have a way of hampering a player for quite a while and Lowrie's done nothing as of yet to demonstrate that his play is back.
Lugo *looked" all-world horrible at SS this year. Plus, his bat was bad LAST year.
A .355 OBA in each of the last two years. You could do a lot worse at shortstop. Say, Yuniesky Betancourt.
I don't really get why they had to make a move right now. Nick Green isn't particularly good - send him to the minors to make room for Lowrie. If you lose him - oh well. Its not that hard to find utility infielders who can post a .680 OPS. I agree with Dan, I would have at least waited til Lowrie had proven he was healthy and good again before shuttling Lugo off. I think BoSox fans are just pleased with the move because Lugo looks awful, but I don't think that necessarily means the Sox should get rid of him.
The reports I heard were that the Sox are picking up all the money but also that the Cards are also giving up a "PTBNL or cash considerations." Wonder how big the potential cash considerations are. Anyway, sounds like one of those clauses that's essentially a gentleman's agreement along the lines of "if Lugo actually plays well and/or Duncan is toast due to injury, we'll make it up to you."
TLR is one of the worst managers I've seen at playing guys that suck over better options. Despite the fact Duncan's BA this month began with a ".0" La Russa would have continued to let him start and suck over other, better options. The only way Duncan wasn't starting was if he was traded.
Bernie Miklasz nailed this pretty well, I think.
-- MWE
Bobby Cox would like to have a word with you.
I like his take on it, and it seems reasonable, but the smile he's wearing in that picture makes me think that he just fooled someone with the "Pull my finger!" gag right before it was taken.
I agree with the premise, but the reality is that the GM could have sent the kid to the minors and it would have prevented TLR from playing.
I doubt it. His numbers look really flukey on the surface. He's over 60 points of OPS above his next best career year and almost 100 above his career line. I could see his numbers normalizing with a crash in the second half. The Jays probably want a decent amount for him, but the Sox only need him to be a part time player.
I think Jack Wilson makes a lot more sense. Pick him up his glove and replace Nick Green.
Bobby Cox would like to have a word with you.
Dusty Baker wants you off his podium. There can be only one.
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