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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 06, 2006

Cards - Signed Carpenter

St. Louis Cardinals - Signed P Chris Carpenter to a 5-year, $63.5 million contract.

What’s not to like about this?  This is why you scrimp and save on the role players and relievers:  so that you can give the big money to the player you can’t replace.  And the Cards can’t replace Carpenter at this price - the farm system is very unimpressive and when Vicente Padilla gets $10 million and Barry Zito north of $15 million a year, even giving Carpenter a raise on his previously arranged 2007 and 2008 salaries doesn’t make this deal anything less than terrific.  Is there an injury risk?  Of course, but that’s a characteristic that most pitchers share. 

2007 ZiPS Projection - Chris Carpenter
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 16   6 30 30 209 187   71 21 42 170 3.06
2008     15   7 29 29 203 187   71 22 40 159 3.15
2009     14   7 28 28 196 182   70 22 41 151 3.21
2010     13   7 27 27 188 177   72 23 43 144 3.45
2011     12   7 26 26 178 170   72 22 45 130 3.64
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 20   5 33 33 235 196   66 18 42 196 2.53
Pes. (15%) 11   8 25 25 170 164   71 22 39 133 3.76
———————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 06, 2006 at 05:44 PM | 11 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. RobertMachemer Posted: December 06, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2253125)
Nice deal for the Cardinals. I wish all "ace starters" came so cheaply.
   2. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: December 06, 2006 at 09:54 PM (#2253256)
Chris Carpenter is one of my favorite players. Just a great story. But the thing he did that endeared him to me most was when he missed the 2004 World Series.

Anyway, I'm going back and forth on this. The price is right, sure, but it was even righter at his old rate, and I'm not too confident about Carpenter in the more distant future, ie, 2009-2011.

Is it just a coincidence that his GS goes down by one every single year in the ZiPS?
   3. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 06, 2006 at 10:04 PM (#2253270)
At that price even the pessimistic projection looks like a good deal.
   4. Greg Maddux School of Reflexive Profanity Posted: December 06, 2006 at 10:07 PM (#2253276)
I'd rather pay a premium later than take a 3/48.5 risk two years before I have to.
   5. Swedish Chef Posted: December 06, 2006 at 10:25 PM (#2253299)
I'd rather pay a premium later than take a 3/48.5 risk two years before I have to.

But the pitcher you pay a premium for in two years might well be Jeff Weaver.

For Carpenter an extension with the Cardinals is great, because they are the only team that can give him a long-term deal right now. They have to use that advantage.

When he's a free agent, they can't give him anything any other team can't match. They'll most likely lose him and have to start again.
   6. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 06, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2253354)
Chris Carpenter is one of my favorite players.

Mine too. New Hampshire rules!
   7. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:01 AM (#2253426)
I'd rather pay a premium later than take a 3/48.5 risk two years before I have to.

If you can get that later. In 2 years, Carpenter might be looking at a 3/70 deal the way things are going and will be more apt to gamble with $20 million in his pocket guaranteed from the ensuing 2 years.
   8. AlexIsADirtySanchez Posted: December 07, 2006 at 12:49 AM (#2253492)
The closer a pitcher/player gets to free agency, the more he's tempted by his agent's whispers in his ear.

Thanks Dan!
   9. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:35 PM (#2254756)
If I were Carpenter, would you marry anyway? Would you have my baby?
   10. Urban Faber Posted: December 08, 2006 at 05:12 AM (#2255155)
No relation to Cris Carpenter, who started his career with the Cardinals.
   11. Daunte Vicknabbit! Posted: December 10, 2006 at 01:11 AM (#2256668)
Walt Jocketty continues to amaze. Sure, he might be topping off an old deal, but even still, he's giving Carpenter the same going rate as the much older Andy Pettite is going to be getting, and about the same dough as Gil Meche for the same time frame. Wonderful, wonderful contract in my opinion.

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