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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, December 08, 2010
Chicago Cubs - Signed Pena
Chicago Cubs - Signed 1B Carlos Pena to a 1-year contract.
It’s hard to call a $10 million salary buying low, but the risk to the Cubs is minimized with a 1-year deal. Pena had about as good a year as a sub-Mendoza line hitter can have, but even so, with most of OPS being BA, his not-unimpressive secondary skills only got him up into below-average territory. BABIP is more of a skill for hitters than it is for pitchers, but even so, Pena’s .222 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated in 2011, which makes a bounceback more likely. Put it this way, the BABIP for pitcher hitting is around .220 and I’d wager a guy with an ISO over 200 is hitting balls harder to field than your average clumsy-batting pitcher.
ZiPS Projection - Carlos Pena
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Year AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
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2011 443 71 106 22 2 31 68 81 140 3 .239 .363 .508 122
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Top Comps: John Mayberry, Jay Buhner, Matt Stairs
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 08, 2010 at 06:48 PM | 13 comment(s)
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1. The Ghost of Sox Fans PastWell, they did score Carlos Silva as a result of the Bradley signing.
Because it's for $10M freaking dollars!
I did not know this. I'm not sure what I'll do with this information -- it's not likely to be good bar bet material in New Zealand -- but I feel enlightened.
Why else would he take a one year deal at this early point in the offseason?
Because guys who have had BAs of 247, 227, 196 the last 3 years usually aren't in the position of waiting around for multi-year contracts.
And it probably doesn't mean much, but his BABIP was only 250 in 2009 and, surprisingly, just 280 for his career. The power was way down in 2010 too.
I can probably figure this out by I'll be lazy and ask instead. Does this not include sacrifice bunts as balls in play converted to outs? I'm assuming not, otherwise I'd expect pitcher BABIP to be lower than this.
Then had an absolute death spiral from April 30 to June 5, hitting .114/.239/.228. For comparison, MLB pitchers hit .141/.175/.174 on the year.
Then he recovered and through the end of July hit .261/.376/.564.
Then he got injured with a problem in his right foot (his lead foot when he batted) and didn't play until mid-August. When he came back he hit: .154/.306/.315 on the year.
Does this not include sacrifice bunts as balls in play converted to outs? I'm assuming not, otherwise I'd expect pitcher BABIP to be lower than this.
Yeah, no sacrifice bunts as it's typically (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO).
So you really can't expect any normal hitter to have a BABIP worse than the .220 range (it was .227 for 2010) just like we can't really expect any reasonable pitcher to have a true BABIP worse than the .330-.340 range (which is what hitters called in to pitch have put up).
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