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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Chicago Cubs - Signed Pena

Chicago Cubs - Signed 1B Carlos Pena to a 1-year contract.

It’s hard to call a $10 million salary buying low, but the risk to the Cubs is minimized with a 1-year deal.  Pena had about as good a year as a sub-Mendoza line hitter can have, but even so, with most of OPS being BA, his not-unimpressive secondary skills only got him up into below-average territory.  BABIP is more of a skill for hitters than it is for pitchers, but even so, Pena’s .222 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated in 2011, which makes a bounceback more likely.  Put it this way, the BABIP for pitcher hitting is around .220 and I’d wager a guy with an ISO over 200 is hitting balls harder to field than your average clumsy-batting pitcher.

ZiPS Projection - Carlos Pena
———————————————————————————————————————
Year   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS+
———————————————————————————————————————
2011   443   71 106 22   2 31   68   81 140   3 .239 .363 .508   122  
———————————————————————————————————————
Top Comps:  John Mayberry, Jay Buhner, Matt Stairs

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2010 at 06:48 PM | 13 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: December 08, 2010 at 07:51 PM (#3705844)
I guess Pena is counting on a bounceback himself. Why else would he take a one year deal at this early point in the offseason?
   2. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 08, 2010 at 08:05 PM (#3705856)
It's the Beltre plan, I suppose.
   3. 3744nsheffield Posted: December 08, 2010 at 08:38 PM (#3705910)
Yeah, Dan, but you said the Milton Bradley signing made sense for the Cubs, too.
   4. Frisco Cali Posted: December 08, 2010 at 08:55 PM (#3705940)
Yeah, Dan, but you said the Milton Bradley signing made sense for the Cubs, too.

Well, they did score Carlos Silva as a result of the Bradley signing.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 08, 2010 at 10:45 PM (#3706089)
Also should be 88 RBI, not 68.
   6. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 08, 2010 at 11:25 PM (#3706129)
Why else would he take a one year deal at this early point in the offseason?

Because it's for $10M freaking dollars!
   7. Walt Davis Posted: December 08, 2010 at 11:53 PM (#3706163)
the BABIP for pitcher hitting is around .220

I did not know this. I'm not sure what I'll do with this information -- it's not likely to be good bar bet material in New Zealand -- but I feel enlightened.

Why else would he take a one year deal at this early point in the offseason?

Because guys who have had BAs of 247, 227, 196 the last 3 years usually aren't in the position of waiting around for multi-year contracts.

And it probably doesn't mean much, but his BABIP was only 250 in 2009 and, surprisingly, just 280 for his career. The power was way down in 2010 too.
   8. SG Posted: December 09, 2010 at 12:24 AM (#3706206)
Put it this way, the BABIP for pitcher hitting is around .220 and I'd wager a guy with an ISO over 200 is hitting balls harder to field than your average clumsy-batting pitcher.


I can probably figure this out by I'll be lazy and ask instead. Does this not include sacrifice bunts as balls in play converted to outs? I'm assuming not, otherwise I'd expect pitcher BABIP to be lower than this.
   9. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: December 09, 2010 at 12:35 AM (#3706215)
Looking at his season, Pena got off to a decent start, hitting .253/.374/.493 by the end of April 29.

Then had an absolute death spiral from April 30 to June 5, hitting .114/.239/.228. For comparison, MLB pitchers hit .141/.175/.174 on the year.

Then he recovered and through the end of July hit .261/.376/.564.

Then he got injured with a problem in his right foot (his lead foot when he batted) and didn't play until mid-August. When he came back he hit: .154/.306/.315 on the year.
   10. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 09, 2010 at 12:50 AM (#3706231)

Does this not include sacrifice bunts as balls in play converted to outs? I'm assuming not, otherwise I'd expect pitcher BABIP to be lower than this.


Yeah, no sacrifice bunts as it's typically (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO).

So you really can't expect any normal hitter to have a BABIP worse than the .220 range (it was .227 for 2010) just like we can't really expect any reasonable pitcher to have a true BABIP worse than the .330-.340 range (which is what hitters called in to pitch have put up).
   11. Dan Posted: December 10, 2010 at 03:35 PM (#3707887)
Like Dag Nabbit says, Peña's bad year is partially due to injuries. The other issue he was having is that he was just rolling over everything and doing nothing but grounding out into the shift. His FB and LD percentages were way down because of this, which is why his BABIP was so low. I imagine that he developed some kind of mechanical flaw in his swing or timing, which should be correctable.
   12. locodice Posted: April 06, 2011 at 04:43 PM (#3787824)
Holidays is here! Does the author understand this? Be real easy similar local movers, they are care about clients
   13. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: April 06, 2011 at 04:53 PM (#3787830)
No they aren't.

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