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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Saturday, March 27, 2004

Chicago White Sox

Acquired OF Timo Perez from the New York Mets for P Matt Ginter.

As chronicled earlier, the White Sox have a serious lack organizational depth in the outfield and while this isn’t quite the cleverest way to go about getting that extra bit of generic 5th outfielder magic, I don’t think Timo is as bad as he’s played at times with the Mets.  He’s essentially Marvin Benard without the steroids rumors.

Ginter’s strictly a middle reliever and will be league-average or a tad below for the Mets wherever he plays.

Dan Szymborski Posted: March 27, 2004 at 11:35 PM | 14 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: January 15, 2003 at 09:24 PM (#563313)
I think their goal to reduce payroll is stupid.

As an Expos fan, no one hates the payroll thing more than me, but you can't spend money you don't have. Vladimir Guerrero, I would assume, won't take an IOU.
   102. Bill Posted: January 15, 2003 at 09:29 PM (#563314)
El Duque did pitch well last year but he is 37 (I believe this is now established) and had missed half of his starts over the last two years with various ailments.

And why would a man who has spent his pitching career trying to please a dictator (Fidel or George, take your pick) and piching in front of packed crowds at international competitions and the MLB post-season be motivated by pitching for the Montreal exiles?
   103. Bill Posted: January 15, 2003 at 09:37 PM (#563315)
"you can't spend money you don't have"

Business is slow lately. I guess I should fire some of my staff since I can't pay them with money I don't have. Of course, this will make the quality of my product worse and my revenues will decline further, but that's ok, because I'll just fire more people or maybe replace them with some guys on parole.

Of course, I could get off my ass and try to figure out how to get more people to buy my product. But that would take an investment of money and brain power, maybe come up with a strategic plan and all that crap, and who wants to bother with that?
   104. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: January 15, 2003 at 09:54 PM (#563317)
Bill, I'm not saying the owners shouldn't be investing in their product, I'm saying that the general manager literally DOESN'T HAVE THE MONEY. There's no cash there. He can't go out and borrow it himself. He *has* to shed payroll. He could just refuse, and get fired, but I don't see how that helps the Expos.

Incidentally, layoffs - cutting salaries - are a very common real-world strategy taken by businesses in desperate straits. It does work sometimes.
   105. Walt Davis Posted: January 15, 2003 at 10:04 PM (#563320)
I think Lee Stevens got it right (who'd a thunk it?) when he wrote: He turned Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore into _NOTHING_.

I suppose it's true that the chances are decent that the Expos don't come out on the short end of this trade (if Colon gets hurt, El Duque pitches like he's 30 again, etc.), but unless Rocky Biddle is a lot better than I think he is, there's no long-term payoff for the Expos here.
   106. Bill Posted: January 15, 2003 at 10:13 PM (#563322)
Craig, I know I was overstating somewhat, and my comment was really more appropriately directed at the Royals or the Brewers or somebody. And I certainly don't blame Minaya who has masters to answer to. But the "owners" of the Expos do have money. Lots of it. The issue is whether they want to reach into their pockets and "spend" (their word) or "invest" (my word) to produce some revenues (not to mention improving the overall quality of the baseball product by reducing the embarrassment of the Expo situation). I don't know offhand what the Expos revenue-per-ticket-buyer number is, but if you can get your attendance up from 9,000 to 12,500 this would surely pay for Colon.

I could be remembering this incorrectly and I don't know where to look this up quickly. In the couple of weeks after the Floyd deal last year when it looked like the team was trying, and was capable of competing, didn't they start getting 13-15K a game instead of the usual under 10?
   107. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:07 AM (#563334)
His K rate for the entire year (5.75/9 IP) was way off his lifetime numbers. Pre All-star break he was at 5.97, after the break at 5.48. Prior to 2002, his lifetime was 7.86. He made up for this with improved BB and HR rates. I don't know what conclusion to draw from this, but I'd say it was worth trading a sack of potatoes to find out.
   108. VegasRobb Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:16 AM (#563336)
Nice trade for the White Sox. That's a nice 1 - 2 with Buerhle and Colon. I haven't heard anything negative about Colon's arm or health except from fans of teams who didn't get him however.
   109. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:24 AM (#563339)
If the White Sox want to worry about a pitcher's K rate, they might want to start with looking at Mark Buehrle whose K rate is scary low for a young pitcher.
   110. True Blue n/k/a "DeJesusFreak" Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:35 AM (#563342)
Point well taken, Bill, but what is scarier?

Colon's Ks/9
   111. bhoov Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:40 AM (#563343)
"I picture Kenny Williams kicked back in his chair, puffing on a big stogie and rubbing his tummy while relating this war story to a reporter over the phone."

That's exactly what Kenny Williams should be doing. I know I sure as hell would be if I was him! This is a very impressive trade. In fact I would say that this is the most impressive trade of the offseason. The only competition would be the Millwood/Estrada trade. However, I think if we're analysing this from the perspective of the talent/creativity required to make this trade I think this one comes out ahead of that one. Because all Ed Wade had to do was tap on his phone a few times to make sure he was hearing Scheurholz correctly, but Williams had to actually work at making this happen(according to himself and Cashman). So is this the best trade of the offseason from a GM perspective? I'd be interested to hear opinions on this. If so, please stop with all the Kenny Williams as an idiot jokes and give the man his due.
   112. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:43 AM (#563344)
Buehrle's is scarier. Colon's is still higher and last year might have been a bit of a fluke.
   113. jb Posted: January 16, 2003 at 12:46 AM (#563345)
colon did play some winterball, and one of the papers there mentioned how fat he was. on the other hand, colon always came to camp looking like a blimp, and he still never got hurt. he's just an odd type of pitcher. my bigger concern with him is his declining K/9 rate and K/BB ratio, although it may be directly related to his size. in cleveland, colon always seemed more interested in throwing 100 mph than in being a good pitcher.
   114. John Posted: January 16, 2003 at 01:00 AM (#563346)
Point well taken, Bill, but what is scarier?

None of the above. The answer is (c). These numbers make the other two, especially Buehrle (in light of the NHBA Fidrych piece on K/9, among other articles), look like no-account chumps by comparison.

Orlando's Ks/9
   115. blue Posted: January 16, 2003 at 01:37 AM (#563349)
Hey, credit Shel Silverstein!
   116. blue Posted: January 16, 2003 at 01:45 AM (#563350)
You're not a power pitcher, Boomer.
   117. Bud Selig Posted: January 16, 2003 at 03:08 AM (#563358)
Hey, I'm the George Bush of baseball -- I was never chosen to be commissioner fairly -- I am also a corporate pawn. We should hang.
   118. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 03:17 AM (#563360)
"To the person who asked about the physicals, I'd bet all the Expos can be poked & prodded by any team, since they are working for the all the other owners at once. whether it's legally supposed to be that way or not is likely immaterial."

The earlier poster stated as a fact that Colon had been examined by several teams. Since this would be a departure from standard procedure (and would unlikely to be agreed to by the player anyway), it seems he should cite a source for this and an explanation. I assume there is neither source nor explanation.
   119. Dag Nabbit is part of the zombie horde Posted: January 16, 2003 at 03:41 AM (#563362)
Bill & True Blue make a good point about Buehlre's K rates, but I think one need not worry too much. One of my favorite parts of the NBJHBA was the Fidrych article in the 1970s where James discusses how vital is it for young pitchers to have above average K's/9IP to have a successful & long-lasting career. What I also remember is that James says that the pitchers who tend to go against this trend tend to be very similar: left-handed finesse pitchers with great control who are smart on the mound - guys like Jimmy Key or the aging Tommy John. He believed that these guys - who have about everything else going for them - can get by with an underwhelming K rate for a while. Guess what? This describes Mark Buehlre - he's a lefty, has great control, & I assume he's pretty sharp on the mound. It don't hurt that last year the ChiSox had a good team H%. My guess would be that once he starts aging & his K-rate drops even further he'll decline faster than one would expect, but for now, he's had back-to-back quality seasons despite his poor K-rate, & he perfectly fits the Jimmy Key profile.
   120. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 04:21 AM (#563364)
"My guess would be that once he starts aging & his K-rate drops even further he'll decline faster than one would expect."

My guess would be that if his K rate drops further he will be.... Paul Kilgus.
   121. Bill Posted: January 16, 2003 at 06:19 AM (#563370)
Washburn and Pettite have significantly higher K rates. Glavine had several years above league average. Buehrle is obviously a talented pitcher but nobody is going to win consistently in this day and age if his K rate slips under 5. He has to improve it.
   122. blue Posted: January 16, 2003 at 05:31 PM (#563378)
red hen-
   123. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: January 16, 2003 at 10:10 PM (#563379)
You think Colon's K rate is a concern look at who the Red Sox have turned to there attention to now.

Rogers, Kenny H/9 K/9 BB/9 HR/9
   124. Scott Posted: January 17, 2003 at 01:48 AM (#563380)
Anyone know anything about Delvis Mantigua?
   125. The Kentucky Gentleman, Mark Edward Posted: January 21, 2003 at 10:46 PM (#563971)
Can Gordon start anymore, or has injury ended that?
   126. Curtis Posted: January 21, 2003 at 10:52 PM (#563972)
Gordon can't pitch past an inning, and still had trouble pitching back to back days. His arm isn't exactly in great shape.
   127. Mr. Crowley Posted: January 22, 2003 at 02:54 AM (#563976)
It's a trap!
   128. Mr. Crowley Posted: January 22, 2003 at 05:04 AM (#563977)
I'm an 8-year old moron.
   129. bob mong Posted: January 23, 2003 at 01:02 AM (#564123)
Hijack: Dan, I am really disappointed that the tide-turning signing of Charles Gipson, by the Chicago Cubs, has yet to be Oracled.
   130. J. Michael Neal Posted: January 23, 2003 at 03:31 PM (#564131)
Marty,

You're falling into the trap of removing a pitcher's worst performances, and then comparing him to the whole season of some other pitcher. That's a no-no. Remove Foulke's two worst games of the year, and his ERA drops to 1.90.
   131. KDub's CellPiece (BLtDH) Posted: January 23, 2003 at 07:46 PM (#564135)
Another thing about Foulke's "awesome" second half.

Manuel was extremely careful about the situations he allowed Foulke to pitch. I don't believe he threw more than one inning, and he was often taken out should any runners reach base. The fact remains, that Osuna and Marte shouldered the majority of the workload throughout the season, including the second half.

The deal wasn't necessarily a winner for the Sox, but it wasn't as terrible as many here would like to believe. The got a reliever that's overrated, 'nuff said.
   132. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2003 at 12:56 AM (#564323)
I keep thinking collusion more and more. Not collusion at the high end, but here in the middle/low end. Nobody was willing to give Daubach a major-league contract to be a bench player, platoon 1B, etc? As noted above, the guy's got a career 831 OPS. Randall Simon and Matt Stairs get ML deals, but Duabach can't? (Yeah, I know, that suggests stupidity not collusion :-)
   133. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2003 at 01:08 AM (#564324)
Brian, prove me wrong! You're much closer to 4 years older than 3 and you've been healthy. Ortiz hasn't been given any opportunity to show what he can really do.
   134. Jimbo Jones Posted: January 28, 2003 at 01:32 AM (#564325)
Walt, Stairs has a career OPS+ of 120 to Daubach's 112. Stairs is five years older, but he is coming off a strong season in which he showed an improvement for the second year in a row (OPS+ 119). His age, I suppose, makes him a higher risk to fall off a cliff. But the fact that he has one of the best BB rates suggests that even if he falls, he won't be totally worthless right away.

I think it's an open question who I'd rather have. Stairs is a bit underrated, methinks--I told people here in Marinerland he'd be a better LF stopgap than Ruben and looked at me like I was insane. He was clearly the better hitter last year, though.

Your larger point--that it is bizarre and suspicious that Daubach can't get a job--is a good one.
   135. Dan Szymborski Posted: January 28, 2003 at 01:57 AM (#564327)
It's a system I've been developing. sZymborskI Projection System. I took liberties with the initials so I could pronounce it in one syllable.
   136. Jason Posted: January 28, 2003 at 03:15 AM (#564328)
I don't see how Daubach having difficulty getting a job is evidence of collusion. He is more or less interchangeable with the likes of Ortiz, Stairs, and others as poor defensive corner men that can hit alright. You can argue over the relative merits of each, but there's not likely to be a games worth of difference between them at the end of the season. Is there any team out there still in dire need of a stopgap 1st basemen? So a good shot at a bench job is all he's got left. A dramatic drop in price for players close to replacement level is exactly how a free market would look. If there's collusion going on no one told the Yankees of Phillies. And it's hard to argue that the owners agreed to a complicated collusion plan that still pays reasonably well for the good players, but poorly for the OK veterans. It's just way too complex to work.
   137. John Posted: January 28, 2003 at 04:40 AM (#564329)
Collusion or not, picking up Daubach is another nice move by Kenny Williams. He seems to be able to hit 20 homers and knock in 75 runs in his sleep, and that's not a bad plan "B" to have for when the Big Hurt is. He's pretty streaky, though (isn't he?), so I wonder how that'll translate into a less-than-everyday role.

Out of curiosity: ZIPS projects Daubach to lose 30 points off of his career average, with almost no decline in power (i.e., he projects to almost precisely the same number of doubles-per-hit and HR-per-hit as throughout his career). Is the drop in average, which really looks like a drop in ability to make contact, a similar-players thing, or purely age? Or is it a secret?
   138. Darren Posted: January 28, 2003 at 05:02 AM (#564330)
John,

Yes, Daubach is very streaky. But somehow very consistent year to year. The knock on him seems to be he feasts on bad pitching, so he wouldn't be very good in playoff type situations (that's a small knock).

One thing that Daubach gets little credit for is that he's turned himself into a good 1B and an respectable LF.

BTW, Dan, I'm sure that Daubach's not regretting giving away the farm (he's a replacement player). But as to the others, I can't see how their situation is greatly affected by the latest CBA. I think they've been more affected by teams suddenly waking up to the fact that they don't have to pay average-ish players $5 mil a year.
   139. Bill Posted: January 28, 2003 at 06:41 AM (#564335)
If Frank doesn't get hurt, how does he get 350 AB's?
   140. Snowboy Posted: January 28, 2003 at 10:06 AM (#564337)
I'm with the majority, shocked that Daubach has signed a minor league deal. And with the White Sox? My first thought was "oh no, just like Canseco."

I think Jose Canseco could have played in the majors last year, on the right team and in the right situation. He walked away from the Expos, which was foolish, and signed a minor league deal with White Sox, which was even more foolish. He was never going to get even a bench spot with the White Sox; he soon realized this, and retired mid-season.

I think Daubuch this year could be even more of a contributor than Canseco last year, but I think he's made the same mistake, signing with a team that isn't too likely to give him a shot. Did someone convince him he has a chance to take Jeff Liefer's spot on the roster? Not a smart move, they hardly let Jeff play either.

The White Sox have solid players at 1B and DH. I can think of a number of others teams that he should have signed with, if he was willing to take minor league deal. In fact, the only way Daubach could have made a poorer decision (if he insisted on staying in AL) would have been to sign with the Yankees, Rangers, Orioles, and maybe Tigers (all similarly full of 1B-DH-OF candidates).
   141. Walt Davis Posted: January 28, 2003 at 06:24 PM (#564340)
First:

Daubach, career 282 EQA, 295 and 286 the last 2 seasons. ML 1B average for 2002: 287. Career 5.3 WARP/162 games; 6.1 the last 2 seasons. He's a ML _average_ 1B, not replacement level.

Second: Teams for whom Daubach would be either an improvement at 1B/DH or a cheaper (say $1-2M) and nearly as good option, at least in a platoon role. And not including a team like, say, Cleveland where he might be better than Hafner, but they're rebuilding. (stats are for EQA for 2001-2002, WARP/162 2001-2002 combined)

Anaheim (Spiezio: 267/285, 4.8)
   142. Big Ed Posted: January 28, 2003 at 10:20 PM (#564346)
He'll get some left field at bats, if he can outfield Carlos Lee, which doesn't seem like a stretch.
   143. Scott Posted: February 01, 2003 at 12:21 AM (#564576)
He's not even all that good.

I think he is. Three of his four years, he's had very good ERA+ stats (142, 125, 189). And he had his highest K rate last year (93K in 93 2/3 IP). I'm not saying he's Mariano, but he seems like he's in just the next tier down. $5m is about right for that, no?
   144. User unknown in local recipient table (Craig B) Posted: February 01, 2003 at 02:13 AM (#564578)
Any thoughts as to what an appropriate percentage of major league payroll should go to a "closer" type (assuming you actually use a closer)?

Assuming you actually use a closer... this is a VERY VAGUE working out of this question.

Tangotiger's research has shown that a typical closer has a Leverage of about 1.85. In other words, a typical closer's innings are about 1.85 times more important than the average pitcher's innings in terms of impact on wins.

I'm going to stipulate that a typical closer pitches around 80 innings, which I think is an approriate number.

Last year's average team pitched around 1440 innings. So a closer's percentage of the available pitching budget should be about 80/1440*1.85, or 10.3%.

Thanks to Bill James's Win Shares "research", we know that pitching is about 35% of baseball. Or something like that. Anyway, going with 35% isn't going to put you far wrong. You should (all things being equal) put about 35% of your payroll towards your pitching staff. In fact, because elite pitchers are in shorter supply, because pitchers are prone to more injuries, and so forth, this percentage should be marginally higher. Call it 38% maybe.

10.3% of 38% is right around 4%. Consequently, a team would be best advised to spend around 4% of its player budget, on average, on its closer.

This number in real life is going to vary wildly depending on who you have, who you you have ready to replace him, how much it would cost to find an equivalent player, how many runs the closer is actually preventing, and so forth.
   145. Russ Posted: February 13, 2003 at 01:58 AM (#564587)
Craig,

I don't think your guess on the percentage of salary that should go to pitchers vs. position players is quite accurate. I think (I don't know for sure) that the value added by pitchers more closely mimics their salaries because pitchers peak later than hitters (right?). My guess is that the split should be somewhere around 55/45 (maybe even 50/50) for hitters and pitchers. It's much easier to get hitters on the cheap because the number of hitters who will be productive before their FA seasons should be greater than the number of pitchers who will be. It's probably best to develop hitters on your own and then trade them away to make salary room for free agent rotation hammers.
   146. Danny Posted: February 13, 2003 at 02:11 AM (#564588)
Craig,

You also didn't account for the fact that closers are generally better than other relievers. You're assuming that a closer is an average pitcher.
   147. Dolf Lucky Posted: April 24, 2003 at 02:37 AM (#565745)
Why wouldn't you call up Willie Harris?
   148. Greg Franklin Posted: June 08, 2003 at 09:29 PM (#563385)
Expos shed Liefer over the weekend .... Tampa Bay picked him up off the waiver wire. The trade leans even more to the White Sox and Yankees now, with El Duque being damaged goods.
   149. Greg Franklin Posted: June 24, 2003 at 01:21 AM (#565750)
Kenny Williams finally agrees with all the nasty things the Oracle said about Josh Paul. Josh was DFA'd to make room for Sandy Alomar Jr. today, and the Sox finally commit to a 2-catcher system.

I hear Detroit needs some help behind the plate. Paul would be an upgrade over Matt Walbeck.

/MrObvious
   150. Walt Davis Posted: July 01, 2003 at 07:25 PM (#566255)
I agree that the Sox are fixing the wrong problem -- although they may be using this as a way to get Crede out of the lineup moreso than Jimenez.

However, it seems to me the Mets could have hardly have done worse, assuming Almonte and Salvo are as unlikely to be of use as they're portrayed. I know Alomar's had a not-so-good season and a half, but you'd think he'd be worth more than a minor-league reliever, given (according to ESPN) the Mets are picking up the salary. (If it turns out the Sox are picking up the salary, then this is a good trade for the Mets).

Here's a suggestion for the TO. When it's a pricey vet for prospects trade, I think it would be good to include who's paying the salary in the transaction line itself -- it's clearly a major component of all such trades these days.

I also think it would be a huge risk for the Mets to keep him and offer arbitration. Isn't it the case that, no matter his numbers, that the worst Alomar could do in arbitration is a 20% pay cut? That's way more than he'd get on the open market. So it would seem he'd accept the Mets' arbitration, and all they'd get is a less expensive year of an underachieving Alomar.
   151. bhoov Posted: July 01, 2003 at 07:34 PM (#566256)
If Jerry Manuel uses Alomar right this could be OK for the sox. Alomar has a .375 OBP and .778 OPS as a lefty. So if you play him against righties and Jimenez against lefties that's an improvement. Interestingly the sox now have two switch-hitting starting infielders who can't hit right-handed. How about a Graffanino/Jimenez infield vs. lefties, Valentin/Alomar vs. righties? That would be cool.
   152. Sam M. Posted: July 01, 2003 at 08:16 PM (#566264)
If we assume the Mets didn't want Alomar past this season (a safe assumption, I submit), and we assume this season is a lost cause (a REALLY safe assumption), then the question to ask is whether this trade improves them for the future. Who cares if they have to pay his salary -- they were going to pay that even if they hadn't traded him, so that's a wash. Even if all they got was a decent-to-good prospect (Ring) and a couple of throw-ins, that's one more decent-to-good prospect than they had prior to the trade. Unless they could have gotten a better prospect from somebody else, it was a good trade. The bottom line is they turned Alomar, who represented nothing useful for their rebuilding, into a player who might just amount to something.

For the Sox, they're willing to give up Ring to roll the dice that the Alomar they get is not the one the Mets are giving up. I'd sure give up Ring for half a season of the Indians' Alomar, especially if I don't have to pay the tab. Seems like a reasonable gamble to me. But even if Alomar hits .325 with 10 home runs and a .400+ OBP, that won't make it a bad deal for the Mets, because the chances he would have done that the rest of the year in N.Y. are nil.
   153. True Blue n/k/a "DeJesusFreak" Posted: July 01, 2003 at 09:13 PM (#566269)
TINSTAAPP, particularly a minor-league closer with such little experience (35.2 IP this year). Having said that, I agree that this deal doesn't do very much for the White Sox and only has the possibility of making them look bad, if Ring turns out to be legit.

Virtually no upside for the White Sox.
   154. Howie B. Posted: July 01, 2003 at 09:22 PM (#566270)
Virtually no upside for the White Sox.

Unless they catch the Twins/Royals and make the post-season after a sl-o-o-o-w start. In which case Alomar is treated as a hero and Williams as a genius.
   155. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 02, 2003 at 01:55 AM (#566281)
I think that Alomar would have to think hard about accepting even $6.4 million arbitration. He can't be unaware that he's been terrible and unpopular in NY and in the past, he's always been eager to leave situations that he's not happy in. If someone offers Alomar a 2 year deal worth 10, I think he'll take it and I don't think it's all that unlikely that someone makes this or a better offer. There are plenty of people, right or wrong, that think Alomar's too "young" to be declining and that he's just a Hall of Famer that had a bad experience in New York.
   156. Roger McDowell spit on me! Posted: July 02, 2003 at 03:26 AM (#566282)
Looks like Kenny's going for the gold. Gammons is reporting that the White Sox traded for Everett.
   157. Guancous Posted: July 02, 2003 at 04:22 AM (#566284)
Frank Thomas and Robbie Alomar in the same clubhouse. What, Carl Everett wasn't available?
   158. Sam M. Posted: July 02, 2003 at 11:45 AM (#566289)
DP --

Your thinking is too short-term. Who cares whether they have Stanton and Weathers to be closers next year? What does that have to do with building a championship team? Do you really think either of those guys is going to be with the Mets the next time they contend? I look at their farm system, and I'd say they do need a closer prospect to develop. More important, we don't know whether there was a decent outfield prospect available to them for Alomar, so it's all speculation. For now, it's more important to expand the overall talent pool available for 2004, and hope they've got the right guy in place as GM to shape that pool into a contender in the next three years. This trade did that, and frankly I'm a little surprised they got a reasonably solid prospect at ANY position for Alomar.
   159. Big Ed Posted: July 02, 2003 at 01:21 PM (#566290)
D'Angelo Jiminez is better than Alomar? Are you nuts? Jiminez seldom has his head in the game, has made countless baserunning and fielding f***-ups. Jiminez has the reputation as being of the laziest players in the majors. His offensive numbers might be a bit better than Alomar's at the moment; most of the good output came in April. His OBP was around .440 at the end of April, it's .315 now. The Sox aren't goning to use Jiminez to ease Crede out, they are going to designate him for assignment -- he's gone. And good riddance too.

Alomar is a much better fielder, the Sox gave up practically nothing to get him, and the Mets are paying his salary. I think this is a very good deal for the White Sox.
   160. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 02, 2003 at 01:36 PM (#566291)
Before everybody goes completely batshit crazy over the Mets trading Alomar for a *gasp* minor-league reliever, it's entirely possible that they'll use him in the rotation. During the draft, there was a lot of speculation as to whether a team might take Ryan Wagner with an eye toward making him a starter, and guys have made the jump from closing in college to starting in the bigs before (John Van Benschoten is the most recent one I can think of, off the top of my head). Ring's only a year out of college, and he's fairly advanced anyway, so it wouldn't necessarily hurt anything to give him a shot.
   161. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 02, 2003 at 02:25 PM (#566292)
If Jimenez' head isn't in the game, he's still been a better player with his head out of the game than Alomar with his in. He obviously didn't make countless mistakes; this isn't the 19th century where we don't have scads of information at our disposal. For all his countless mistakes in the field, Jimenez has done a better job at turning hit balls into outs than Alomar has. In fact, by zone rating, Alomar's 23rd of 23 qualifying 2B and is as far back from 22nd as *8th* is from 1st (Luis Castillo). Instead of the overrated, but good defensive 2B Alomar's always been, he's now an overrated and outright bad defensive 2B.

With Jimenez being better both offensively and defensively than Alomar of late that just leaves these supposedly countless baserunning errors. How many are these countless baserunning errors? 50? If the White Sox DFA Jimenez, that reflects poorly on their cognitive abilities, not Jimenez' baseball abilities.

I think a lot of people are underestimating what Alomar will fetch in the 2003 offseason. I strongly believe that he's going to be seen as "Hall of Fame 2B with a tough time in NY." And Alomar's almost certainly not going to be lower than a B free agent with 3-year averages as a 2B of .280-14-75 and 20 stolen bases - Durham was an A with 3-year average of .275-17-70 and 25 stolen bases and Bell was a B with a 3-year of .255-15-60 and 2 stolen bases.
   162. Shredder Posted: July 02, 2003 at 03:28 PM (#566324)
I think they'd be best off if they played Everett in CF against righties. DH Frank and play Daubach at 1B. Against lefties, play Rowand in CF, Frank at 1B, and DH Everett. That would seem to make the most sense. Daubach is actually contributing after a horrible start.
   163. washerdreyer Posted: July 02, 2003 at 04:07 PM (#566328)
John Hart-
   164. Gold Star for Robothal Posted: July 02, 2003 at 04:10 PM (#566296)
Dan, the compensation rankings are determined by 2 year stats. Alomar, barring an offensive explosion, will be a fringe Type B.
   165. washerdreyer Posted: July 02, 2003 at 04:16 PM (#566297)
I was fairly certain it was three year stats. However, I cannot find any website to confirm or deny this. Any help?
   166. Yoenis Cespedes, Baseball Savant Posted: July 02, 2003 at 04:45 PM (#566331)
I heard that Neal Cotts might be one of the minor-leaguers going to Texas. Any word on this?
   167. The Artist Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:13 PM (#566335)
Big Series,
   168. Moses Taylor World Re-Tour 2.0: Warszawa Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:23 PM (#566338)
I'll come to John Hart's defense here. I read his attack to be directed at Ira (with an unnecessary personal barb at Dan at the end).

Ira, have you seen a single Sox game this year? BORCHARD was up for 16 games this year where he hit a bad .184/.246/.265 after not exactly tearing it up in the minors. His defense also left something to be desired. The only reason he was brought up was that Rowand was awful and hurt and Willie Harris was hurt. He wasn't ready yet, and won't be this year. Lee isn't going to be benched, he isn't playing that bad overall-he has been really streaky. His defense is awful.

I think Shredder got the positions right, but Manuel really does change the line-up all the time and never is predictable. But Frank is going to play 1b as much as possible (he likes it, he hits a ton better when he plays there, and there are walls that are better defensively). Konerko has already been benched and he really should play everyday in AAA to work out of his slump (I know that's not possible, but he's not helping the team and not getting any better on the bench).

I'm surprised Jimenez was DFA. I would have thought he had options. The Cubs should just all over that and let him work out his problems in AAA (him or Hill can move to 3rd). The Padres gave up on him pretty quickly too, and his work ethic is constantly being questioned.
   169. Cris E Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:27 PM (#566339)
Why don't they just agree on 3 in the first place then?

You go with PTBNLs from a predetermined list for a number of reasons: it allows time for the players in question to reach a year of service, develop or get injured. And if an organization's needs change, this allows some flexibility. On the other side of the table, you get something now and take a gamble that you fashioned the right list and won't lose any unexpected bloomers (ie your list contains fair value to you and doesn't include windfalls for the other guy).
   170. Buddha Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:41 PM (#566341)
Maybe there are some guys on that list who were drafted this year and that is why they are waiting to release who the Rangers "picked"? Akin to the Bonderman deal last year. Just a thought.
   171. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:41 PM (#566302)
Dan, you ignorant slut.

Jimenez may have a better ZR than Alomar, but their RF's are almost identical. And these metrics don't tell the whole defensive story anyway. Of the Sox infielders, only Frank Thomas is worse on popups. At least Frank will get out of the way when someone calls him off, Jimenez NEVER gets out of the way. In June, Sox outfielders had to pull up short to avoid colliding with him, each time the resulting base hit turned into a run. He's slow at turning the double play, he has a very good arm.

But to think Jimenez's value defensively even matters that much to the Sox is to miss the point. He was their leadoff hitter. If you think Alomar had a brutal June offensively, Jimenez was worse. Even when he did get on base, his baserunning gaffes cost the Sox several runs in June. I chart most of their games and I can tell you he had more minuses on my sheets than any other Sox player, including Konerko. Calling him offensively better than Alomar "of late" is just plain a misstatement of fact. Alomar had a better May and June, and his June sucked. I could possibly grant you that I'd rather have Jimenez from the right side than Alomar, but that essentially makes Jimenez a defensive replacement, and Graffanino is clearly better than Jiminez in that regard, which makes Jimenez the 6th infielder at best. That actually makes Willie Harris more valuable.

The only area where Jimenez might look better than Alomar offensively is in power, and Shea is a pitcher's park. Even then, Robbie had more doubles.

At worst, this trade is one mediocre player for another. I'm as leery of the "proven verteran" tag as anyone, but Jimenez is a proven non-entity. He's a nice utility infielder for a team that needs one, and the White Sox don't need him.
   172. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 02, 2003 at 05:58 PM (#566306)
D'oh, you would think I would remember that the rankings were two instead of three year rankings considering I've actually written on the subject before and used to get it right. Difficile est tenere quae acceperis nisi exerceas.
   173. fracas' hope springs eternal Posted: July 02, 2003 at 06:28 PM (#566346)
Re PTBNL lists, I wonder if the following ever happens...

GM A: We'll throw in any one of the following guys to close the deal. [hands over list]

GM B: Well, none of them is really good enough to swing it for us; would you give us two of 'em?

GM A: No, that's too much. Tell you what -- we'll give you until Christmas to decide; that way if any of them get injured before season's end, they're our problem, and you get to pick the guy who's developed the best. Now is it worth it?

GM B: So long as you play them all regularly.

GM A: Deal.
   174. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 02, 2003 at 06:44 PM (#566310)
"Royce has NEVER been an SP"

So build him up slow, like he's a H.S. arm playing his first games in the NY-Penn league. Have him work 2-3 innings per start for half a season, then gradually work it up to five. "He's never done it before" seems like a really lousy reason to not do something now; by that logic, Lance Berkman would still be a 1B stuck behind Jeff Bagwell.

Even if Ring doesn't stick as a starter, it'd make sense to get him some multi-inning stints to work on his mechanics and control, both of which have been problems in the past.
   175. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 02, 2003 at 06:48 PM (#566347)
The Sox could always try to peddle Lee for a guy who's actually capable of handling CF. To Oakland for Singleton +?

It's also possible that they have an unrelated deal for a CF in the works, and are planning on using Lee as the regular DH instead of Konerko.
   176. Darren Posted: July 02, 2003 at 08:01 PM (#566350)
If so I hope Epstein is paying attention. Jimenez is probably a better option than F. Sanchez and Sanchez is on option this year. If my count is right, he put up a .327/.392/.492 in AAA at 21.

Jimenez will never get to the Red Sox, but if he did, Sanchez is still better. Sanchez hit .380/.480/.600-ish in AAA this year. Those Jimenez numbers are from about 4 years ago, and before Jimenez broke his neck. He's never been the same since.

If the Red Sox wanted to stash him in AAA, that'd be fine with me. He's still only 25 this year.
   177. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 02, 2003 at 08:11 PM (#566352)
"Why would the White Sox trade away Chris Singleton (for basically nothing), and then trade a valuable player to get him back a couple years later?"

Because they could use him now, and they didn't need him then? They've shopped Lee in the past, they don't have a real CF on the roster, and in Buehrle, Garland, and Wright, they've got three starters who put a fairly large number of balls in play.

You'll also notice the "+" at the end of the idea, meaning additional compensation. Lee for Singleton wouldn't be fair, but Lee for Singleton and either a "B" prospect like Esteban German or a good, cheap bullpen arm like Bradford might make sense. German could kick Harris down to AAA this year and fight with Hummel to replace Alomar in 2004, and Bradford could take innings away from White or Glover. I'm sure it'd be embarrassing for Williams to trade for two guys that he'd discarded in the past, but if it made his team better to do so, he might be willing to suck it up and do the right thing.
   178. Buford Sharkley Posted: July 02, 2003 at 08:35 PM (#566354)
Rowand is a tremendous defensive CF and is starting to hit well. Not as good as Chris Singleton, but very good.

Speaking Frankly, Frank Thomas has a strange condition. He can only hit when he plays first base. DHing Frank for more than one game at a time is out of the question.

Willie Harris = Herb Washington.

Lee has never been shopped; is a darling of Kenny Williams. Singleton, I believe, has angered Kenny in the past.

....So finally, this is what I think should happen:

1. Alomar 2B
   179. Zen Bitz Posted: July 02, 2003 at 09:03 PM (#566359)
Speaking Frankly, Frank Thomas has a strange condition. He can only hit when he plays first base. DHing Frank for more than one game at a time is out of the question.

Not even a day game in Wrigley, and a night game in Nuevo Comisky? I guess they don't use the DH in Wrigley... Detroit's pretty close.

If D'AJ was DFA - could that mean they have a trade in the works?

ZB
   180. Walt Davis Posted: July 02, 2003 at 09:13 PM (#566360)
Why would the White Sox trade away Chris Singleton (for basically nothing)

How quickly they forget. He was traded for the estimable Willie Harris, whom the Sox consider more valuable than Jimenez.
   181. Anthony Giacalone Posted: July 02, 2003 at 09:55 PM (#566364)
First, Aaron Rowand is a gold glove caliber centerfielder. He's led the league in ZR in CF for three years in a row (minimum 200 innings) and he was a better CFer than Singleton, when the both were here two years ago.

Second, dumping Jimenez but keeping Willie Harris was stupid, but the Sox like he tools guys and especially speed guys. That said, Jimenez was brutal at second base. Not only was his range lacking but had all kinds of troubles turning the double play. I guess that wouldn't be too much of a problem by the Sox currently have the best staff around at generating DPs, so you could use someone there. I'm not excited about Alomar too much (although he has never failed to play well for a contending team) but I do think that he can still turn the DP.

I'm hoping that Manuel will spell Alomar and Everett against lefties since neither of them can handle them anymore. That should give plenty of playing time for Konerko (who has been at least fair against lefties) and Graffanino.

This is now the kind of roster that a platoon crazy manager could really use effectively. Manuel doesn't particularly like to platoon so noone really knows what he's going to do.
   182. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 02, 2003 at 10:40 PM (#566366)
"Lee has never been shopped; is a darling of Kenny Williams."

Well, I know for a fact that they offered Lee to the Pirates as part of the Giles package in 2001, and there were some discussions with the Orioles earlier this year and talks with the Expos late last fall.

Jayson Stark also thought Lee was trade bait at one point, and he's not the only one who voiced that opinion. Hell, there were even columnists in Chicago saying so.
   183. jwb Posted: July 03, 2003 at 01:34 AM (#566316)
Highjack:
   184. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 03, 2003 at 03:50 AM (#566318)
"I believe the Royals also acquired cash."

Good move. They really needed a catching prospect.
   185. VegasRobb Posted: July 03, 2003 at 04:35 AM (#566371)
It's on ESPN.

Also, is it quite possible that Jimenez just isn't that good as everyone would like him to be? After all, the Yankees passed over him to keep Soriano (much to the chagrin of probably 90% of the people who post and read this board). Then the Padres passed on him and now the White Sox. Is he the 2B version of Bruce Chen? Beloved by statheads but unable to reach their expectations in MLB?
   186. NTNgod Posted: July 03, 2003 at 05:19 AM (#566373)
From the Chicago Tribune:

The Rangers have until July 25 to choose from two pools of players. If they select a player from the top pool, they get only one other choice. If they choose from the second pool, they will get three picks.

....

The Sox would not release the names of any of the eight players from which the Rangers can pick, but a major-league source disclosed the list late Wednesday.

Six players are in Class A ball. One is at Triple-A Charlotte. The other is at Double-A Birmingham.

The biggest name, according to the source, is outfielder Anthony Webster, whom Baseball America ranked as the organization's No. 3 prospect.
   187. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 03, 2003 at 02:11 PM (#566376)
You may hate "the good face" but I guarantee that I hate "pitchability" even more. During the draft, "country strong" even made an appearance.
   188. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: July 03, 2003 at 02:40 PM (#566319)
Let's not forget that with the addition of Alomar, Jimenez was expendable and both the Mets and the Rangers didn't want him (at least in the trades.) I could sort of understand the Rangers not really needing him if they'd rather use Young at 2b, but the Mets could certainly use him more than an older minor league relief pitcher.
   189. I am Ted F'ing Williams Posted: July 03, 2003 at 02:54 PM (#566377)
The biggest name, according to the source, is outfielder Anthony Webster, whom Baseball America ranked as the organization's No. 3 prospect.

The 20-year-old Webster is batting .297 for Kannapolis and ranks second in the Class A South Atlantic League in both runs scored (58) and hits (87).

Another player believed to be available is pitcher Felix Diaz, who's 3-5 with a 3.71 ERA at Charlotte. The Sox acquired Diaz from San Francisco last July in the Kenny Lofton trade.

Baseball America ranks him eighth, two spots behind Corwin Malone, a left-hander who's also said to be on the list.

Malone, who has faltered since posting a 1.98 ERA in three minor-league stops in 2001, is 2-2 with a 7.16 ERA at Birmingham.

The rest of the list, according to the source:

Second baseman/outfielder Ruddy Yan: Leads the Carolina League in runs scored (62), stolen bases (45) and hits (87) and ranks seventh in average (.304).

Pitcher Wyatt Allen: 5-3 with a 3.29 ERA at Winston-Salem. Ranked 24th among organization's prospects.

Pitcher Josh Rupe: 4-3 with a 5.09 ERA at Kannapolis. Ranked 26th by Baseball America.

Pitcher Frankie Francisco: 5-3 with a 4.11 at Winston-Salem. Ranked 29th.

Pitcher Rick Hummel: 2-3 with a 1.47 at Kannapolis.
   190. Walt Davis Posted: July 03, 2003 at 03:47 PM (#566380)
Buehrle is almost certainly leaving.

Well, maybe when he becomes an FA after the 2006 season.

On the Jimenez/Harris/etc. issue: I'm assuming the Sox needed to open up two spots on the 40-man roster (i.e. none of the players they traded were on the 40-man). As such, it's not a matter of who did/didn't have options left, it was a matter of who you want to kick off the 40-man roster and make available to the world. Keeping Jimenez and sending down Harris would require kicking some minor-leaguer off the 40-man roster. That may or may not be a better idea than DFA'ing Jimenez or Harris -- I have no idea since I don't know who's on the Sox 40-man. But when I said they should have kept Jimenez over Harris, I meant they should have DFA'd Harris, under the assumption there's not a more viable candidate in the minors.
   191. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 03, 2003 at 04:52 PM (#566381)
Whenever I hear "country strong", I have an image of the guy working as a carny, throwing knives at the bearded lady and muscling the fishboy back into his crate.

Diaz is one of the guys the Sox got for Lofton. I like him as well as anybody on the list, personally.

Yan, formerly known as "Edwin", came over from Pittsburgh with Damaso Marte for Matt Guerrier. I saw him a couple of times at Hickory; he's a Luis Castillo sort of guy.

Allen's got no control. 56 BB, 54 K, 82 IP.

Rupe and Hummel are relievers.
   192. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 03, 2003 at 08:03 PM (#566384)
Nobody cares about the Brewers. Not even Dan.
   193. bhoov Posted: July 03, 2003 at 08:09 PM (#566385)
from the other Everett thread:

Baseball America's take on the prospects available to the Rangers. I like this list from the sox's perspective. Webster looks like the only good prospect, lots of minor league relievers and even a pitcher presently on the DL! And we don't have to give up probably our top 6 prospects (if the list were made today. Cotts, Honel, Rauch, Borchard, Reed, Wing).

The eight-player pool from which the Rangers will select three players on July 25 as payment for Carl Everett has been reported by several sources. It includes outfielder Anthony Webster, lefthander Corwin Malone, righthanders Josh Rupe, Felix Diaz, Wyatt Allen, Franklin Francisco and Rick Hummel and second baseman Ruddy Yan.

Baseball America breaks down every trade in Trade Central, the only place you can find scouting reports on minor leaguers involved in deals, and we'll review this trade when it becomes official. In this rare instance, we can give you insight on the potential trade targets beforehand.

White Sox general manager Kenny Williams deserves credit for bringing in Everett and Roberto Alomar despite a relatively thin pool of prospects. Over the next three weeks, Rangers scouts will bear down on the eight players on the short list. Their top options should be Webster, Rupe and Malone.

Webster, 20, is hitting .297-1-25 for low Class A Kannapolis this season. Drafted in the 15th round out of a Tennessee high school in 2001, Webster is one of the top athletes in the White Sox organization. He batted .352-1-30 with 16 stolen bases in Rookie-level Bristol last year. He is still considered raw at the plate, despite his .318 career average. A sleek, lefthanded-hitter, Webster displays a solid understanding of the strike zone, too. Last year he drew 38 walks against 38 strikeouts, and he's posted a .366 on-base this year.

Rupe, was drafted last year in the third round out of Louisburg (N.C.) JC and is 4-3, 3.09 on the season. He started the year working primarily out of the pen for Kannapolis after an erratic debut at Rookie-level Bristol in 2002. After posting a 1.35 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 33 innings ou of the pen this year, the White Sox promoted him to the rotation. Long-term, he profiles as a starter because he has a four-pitch arsenal featuring a 90-94 mph fastball and above-average slider. Overall, the 6-foot-2 righthander has help righthanders to a .188 average.

Malone is recovering from a shoulder injury, which makes him a risk to gamble on, but he could be worth it. His stock skyrocketed after a 2001 season that saw him climb three levels while compiling a 13-5, 1.98 record. He struggled mightily with his command last season, walking 89 in 124 innings. He also fanned 89, after striking out 177 in 168 innings in 2002. Malone is currently on the DL with a shoulder problem. He was 2-2, 7.16 for Double-A Birmingham in 28 innings this year. Like Webster, Malone was a football player in high school.

Diaz was acquired last July from the Giants with lefthander Ryan Meaux for Kenny Lofton. Diaz has suffered from mild shoulder problems in each of the last two years, and some scouts have questioned his makeup. Diaz, who will turn 23 on July 27, has hit the mid-90s in the past, but he consistently works in the low 90s range when healthy. Earlier this season, he was having trouble getting to 90 with a lifeless fastball, but has improved since. He's 3-5, 3.54 allowing a .255 average in 74 innings.

Yan woulnd't figure to be a good fit for the Rangers, who recently moved hot prospect Ramon Nivar off of second base, due in part to their organization need for center fielders and because of Michael Young's presence at second base. Jason Bourgeois is also a top prospect, playing second base for high Class A Bakersfield.

Francisco has a live arm, but since being acquired from the Red Sox as part of the deal for Bobby Howry last July, he hasn?t been consistent. The 23-year-old was 0-4, 8.06 for Class A Winston-Salem last year, and has improved to 5-3, 4.11 in 61 innings this season.
   194. MM1f Posted: July 08, 2003 at 03:46 AM (#566389)
Gammons says Felix Diaz and Frankie Francisco are two of the three. Diaz they got from San Fran last year for Lofton and Fransisco they got from Boston for Howry.
   195. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 30, 2003 at 09:24 PM (#566999)
Odd. I can't remember the last five-reliever deal I saw, probably because there wasn't one.
   196. Shredder Posted: July 31, 2003 at 02:04 AM (#567000)
The Angels have a few righty relievers that get lefties out better than Schoeneweis. As for Glover et al, on the surface it doesn't look like much, but then again, neither did Weber, Donnelly, Shields, etc...
   197. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: August 27, 2003 at 01:49 PM (#567619)
I like Hummel, so this is one of the few recent Reds' moves that gets my seal of approval.
   198. John Posted: August 27, 2003 at 11:03 PM (#567624)
More importantly what are the White Sox doing here? Hummel was their guy to slot in where Jimemez used to be....now both are Reds.
   199. Cris E Posted: December 03, 2003 at 04:08 PM (#569074)
I think it's just a mindgame in the negotiations with Alomar.

RA: "What are they thinking? Mills was the next 2B?"

KW: "He's only there to back you up, Rob."

RA: "Bull. I gotta keep my job! You bastards aren't taking MY job from me..."

KW: "I wouldn't worry about it. He's a SS anyway."

RA: "Right. That's why you brought in Jimenez, right? SS? I'm fighting this one."

KW: "Well if it makes you feel better, sign here."
   200. Fog City Blues Posted: December 03, 2003 at 06:20 PM (#569077)
From Tracy Ringolsby:

"The Rockies remain focused on trying to come up with a creative package that will lure free-agent shortstop Rich Aurilia but also are intrigued about the possibility of acquiring (Neifi) Perez."

Dear Dan O'Dowd:

We also think the possibility of sending Neifi to the Rockies is intriguing. After all Neifi is a career .320 hitter at Coors Field and he plays Gold Glove defense! I suggest you move your thought process from "intrigued" to "trigger happy."

Sincerely,

Intrigued San Francisco Giants fans
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