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Jose Valentin is getting $5M this year. He batted .237 last year. He is no longer underrated.
Yuck. I despise the word "compensation" as euphamism for "payment." Baseball players are not being compensated, they are being payed. Compensation is a term agents use to make it sound as though being payed millions of dollars to be an athlete is a livin' the tough life.
4.22, 4.15, 4.22
Not so, it would just depend on how you model it. Tango's Marcel the Monkey (i.e. a 5/3/2 weighting of the last 3 years) might spit out 4.85 but a computer could include age effects (as Dan pointed out) and it could be regressing the prediction toward the league mean (which since Dan didn't point it out I'm assuming his program doesn't).
(sobs in corner)
<pre>Year Team G W L Sv IP
"Uh, hi, Kenny Williams? Hi, I'm an ex-San Francisco Giant outfielder with OBP issues who can play a passable center field, and I'd really like an opportunity to make the White Sox. My name? Arma--uh, Marvin Bernard. Yeah, that's it..."
Truthfully, though, as cmr says, he's not a bad minor-league contract guy. The problem is, the White Sox have brought in pretty much no one except good minor-league contract guys.
(sobs in corner)
According to stats I saw posted on another site, Takatsu's K/IP have been declining, and his BB/IP have been rising. I really doubt he'll do a whole lot.
Anyway, I suppose this is a good move, although I do have concerns. Takatsu's K rate has been dropping steadily since 1999, and his walk and homer rates have gone up during this time period. Taking a WAG, I'd expect him to pitch like the 2003 version of John Franco, only less effective and with more innings.
Our bullpen looks to be about filled. We still need a fourth starter, a second baseman, and a back-up outfielder, though. Sadly, Marvin Benard has a good shot at making the team.
That's not really accurate. Sure they are about the same height, but at their best Rios had far more power (slugged over .500 over ~380 ABs in 1999-2000). Benard is essentially a little worse at everything...
Thanks, Bavasi.
Rios has a career .341 OBP while playing primarily in pitchers parks. He's above league average at getting on base. Come to think of it, so is Benard.
So they go for a relief pitcher.
I guess it's Reinsdorf's way to spend money.
Frank Thomas hasn't hit over his listed weight (275lbs) since 2000
Batting average? *shakes head*
I thought you were better than that, UL
Somehow, Thomas has lost those extra hits, mostly singles, that make the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter. Since you don't speak that tongue, here's some more stuff from Frank's post-injury faze.
OBP: 2002 - .361 (worst ever for career), 2003 - .390 (third worst)
Two reasons: Contract year, and The Cell. The Cell was a great hitters park. Thomas's numbers in the cell were damned good. It increased his homers by 38%. If I put Thomas on any other team, it's likely he would have done worse in 2003. His home numbers carried him. 1064 OPS at home, 834 OPS on the road. Other than Coors, Frank wouldn't be that good in any other park for 81 games.
But, what is more accurate a predictor for a 36 year old's season, the surprisingly good showing he had at 35, or the awful season he had at 34?
Hitters are prone to decline as they get older. We've noticed that, right? :)
As for Frank and Ozzie. Ozzie didn't like Frank when they were teammates. Ozzie said that Frank would be benched for various things. Frank either turns the other cheek alot, or he's gonna be pissed at Ozzie.
7 singles, 5 doubles, 5 homers
surprisingly, Thomas has 6 singles, 3 homers, 3 doubles v. Detroit
Konerko, Harris, Valentin, Crede.
Would that be a tolerable infield?
Bill James Handbook.
The Cell was the best park for HRs among right-handed hitters. Look it up.
The Cell does reduce BA, but it increases power.
You have a good point there, but it's somewhat inaccurate.
From 1991-1996, New Comiskey park had a blue, metal batter's eye, which matched the blue seats.
In 1997, Albert Belle complained that he couldn't see the ball with the blue batter's eye. The metal was painted black.
In 2002, the black metal batter's eye was scratched, and replaced with a foliage-infested tower-like structure, said to improve visibility in the daytime.
In 2003, the batter's eye structure was equipped with an extra porch or something.
In 2004, the batter's eye will further be changed somehow. I think there'll be an extra bleacher section on top of the batter's eye or something.
I'm not sure the last two alterations have/will have made any difference to the batter.
....Well, that's my input.
The Imperial Japanese Navy Air Force used four different systems for designating and naming aircraft.
The first, the Shi number, was only given to experimental types. Each type was issued a designation consisting of ?Navy Experimental? followed by the year (in this case, the year of the Emperor?s reign, which began in 1925 A.D.), and a description of the role. The Mitsubishi Zero, for example, had the Shi-number Navy Experimental 12-Shi Carrier Fighter during its developmental stage.
Once a Navy design passed the experimental stage, it was assigned a short designation, using a system based on the US Navy designation, which indicated role, aircraft type, manufacturer, and model ? for example, to once again use the Zero, A6M1. The first letter, ?A?, designated a carrier-based fighter. The first number indicated the number of different aircraft that had been ordered under each type designation ? in our example, the ?6? indicates the sixth carrier fighter to be ordered. The second letter, ?M?, indicates the manufacturer, Mitsubishi. These three letters and numbers would remain the same during an aircraft type?s life. The second number, ?1? indicates the specific model of the aircraft, in this case the first type. Subtypes of a specific model were indicated by a further lower case letter ? for example, A6M5c. If an aircraft was modified to perform another duty, the new duty was indicated by a hyphen and the letter for the new function. ?K? indicated trainer, so the trainer version of the A6M2 was the A6M2-K. This system was by far the most important of the Navy designation systems.
The third System was the Type number. Aircraft accepted for production and service were given another designation that incorporated both a role description and a Type number. Aircraft that remained prototypes were not given Type numbers. The Type number was based on the last digits of the Japanese year in which a particular aircraft was accepted. Prior to the year 2599 (1939 A.D.), the last two digits were used. Navy aircraft accepted in the year 2600 (1940 A.D.) were given the Type number 0 instead of 100 (Army aircraft accepted in 1940, however, did use 100 as the type number). Because obviously more than one type of aircraft was accepted by the IJNAF during each year, the exact function of an aircraft was incorporated into the Type number. This is why the most famous Japanese aircraft of all-time, the Mitsubishi A6M, or Navy Type 0 Carrier Fighter under this designation system, became universally known as the Zero.
The specific model was indicated by two numbers, the first indicating the airframe, and the second the engine. The first model of a design was designated Model 11. If the airframe was changed but not the engine, the next designation would become Model 21. If the engine was changed but not the airframe, the Model 11 would become the Model 12. If both engine and aircraft were changed from the Model 11, it would become the Model 22. Thus, the designation Navy Type 0 Carrier Fighter Model 52 indicated it was the fifth airframe model and second engine model as compared with the original Zero, the Model 11.
In July 1943, the IJNAF began assigning official names to their aircraft, sometimes instead of Type numbers. Names were assigned under very strict rules:
Fighters ? named after meteorological phenomena
Carrier and seaplane fighters ? names ending in pu or fu (wind)
Interceptor fighters ? names ending in den (lightning)
Night fighters ? names ending in ko (light)
Attack aircraft ? named after mountains
Reconnaissance aircraft ? named after clouds
Bombers ? named after stars or constellations
Patrol planes ? named after seas or oceans
Transports ? named after skies
Trainers ? named after trees, plants, and flowers
Miscellaneous aircraft ? named after landscape effects
This system provided some of the most striking names of any nation?s aircraft - Aichi E16A Zuiun (Auspicious Cloud); Nakajima J1N1-S Gekko (Moonlight); Yokosuka P1Y Ginga (Milky Way); and my favorite, the Kawanishi N1K1-J Shiden (Violet Lightning).
I guess you extrapolate "Rainy Sky", or "Snowy Sky"...
Cubs fans need to do whatever it takes to prevent Dusty from successfully lobbying for Benard's services. At least Goodwin can claim one athletic skill (speed), albeit an overrated one.
(Shudder)
Ideally, Rowand is the 4th OF, starting against lefties and being used as a defensive replacement, on a championship White Sox team.
Actually, I was pretty pumped about the Person acquisition. It's unfortunate that he got hurt so badly because a hleathy Person could easily have put 150 league average innings in the 5 spot which would've allowed Schoney to be the long man in the bullpen where he belongs.
Overall, the White Sox have 4 outfielders on their 40-man roster (Borchard, Lee, Ordonez, Rowand)and only 2 non-roster OFs left (Reed, Mario Valenzuela) and Charlotte's roster is only listed as having *1* outfielder, Scott Bikowski. You have to go down to Birmingham just to find a Sox team with enough outfielders to field a team.
Hopefully, the Sox are just waiting for some cuts, although feeding off spring training losers isn't really the best strategy.
This all comes down to perception. Rowand does not look like Torii Hunter or Mike Cameron, but he has been just as good a CF over the last three seasons. The only way to justify that he is a "tweener" is to ignore the defensive stats.
Now, do the Sox have a backup to him? No. Willie Harris will be the nominal backup if anything should happen to him in a game and then Uribe would play second.
I see no possible good that can come out of bringing Singleton into camp. The Sox made a series of great moves in getting Singleton for free when he was 26 and coming off a bad AAA year and then moving him when he was 28 for another player with potential. Singleton is the great example of a player that can have some use for you if you get him during his prime and then dump him. To bring him back at the age of 31 would be stupid.
My guess is that the Sox feel that there will be some talent dumped at the end of March that they will be able to scoop up.
Word is that the Sox will start the season with 12 pitchers on the major league roster. I don't exactly agree with it, but it's not like the Sox have a slew of position players looking for bench spots. That said, here's my opening day roster:
Is Williams even trying any more? More seriously, is there that much suspicion among players and agents about Ozzie Guillen/Reinsdorf/the organization that no one wants to go there?
Rowand's defense is a particular pet peeve of mine. I didn't meant to take it out on you.
I think that Rowand's second half is mostly the result of a small sample size. That said, his first half was mostly do to a horrible hit rate and he didn't get enough at bats in the second half to even his overall numbers out. Also, I think that we all should recognize that Rowand is coming into his prime years now. I think that it is likely that he will post one really good year in the next three. Something in the neighboorhood of .295/.350/.500 for a year would strike me as about right. Not saying that it's going to happen this year but I would expect it in the next while. I think that we forget sometimes that he was a first round pick.
I too am a bit worried if he gets hurt. In a limited sample size, Borchard had very good ZRs in CF but he looked pretty shaky out there when I saw him in the season and in AZ. My guess is that Reed could play there fine, but I don't think that they want to throw him in just yet. I really doubt that Gload can play there effectively and would prefer Maggs there in a pinch. The biggest problem if Rowand were to get hurt is that it would force Uribe into the lineup. Ugh.
AG
On another note, rumor has it that Kris Benson is coming to Sox for Jon Rausch and Josh Stewart. I sort of like Benson, but he's making way too much for a pitcher who has only thrown 230 innings in the past three years.
Ginter will probably be a decent long reliever. He didn't have a good chance of making the Sox, though he probably deserved a spot. I'd take him over Takatsu and Grilli.
I don't see why a healthy Perez, used judiciously, couldn't approach his 2002 numbers, which didn't suck for a versatile reserve.
If nothing else Perez was fun to watch. One time, he had called time and stepped out of the box, but his request wasn't granted and the pitch was on the way -- somehow, he managed to step back in in time and sent a ball screaming down the left field line, just foul. Bobby Valentine said afterward it was the most amazing play he'd ever seen.
Ugh. There are so many useful players available -- why in the name of God would you pick up a $4 million, completely useless player???
It'll all depend who the PTBNL is, but right now this doesn't seem like a bad deal.
"He's also the type of offensive player we need if Jose or Kaz [Matsui] needs a day off. He's a high on-base percentage (career .340) kind of guy. We were looking primarily for an offensive guy who could catch the ball, as well."
Gutierrez is slated to make $3.9 million this year, but the Indians will pick up approximately 75 percent of that, including the $750,000 buyout for next year. Gutierrez is slated to make $5 million in 2005.
Raul Gonzalez and Eric Valent aren't that much different than Timo, and both make less than him.
Timo can play a respectable center, which was his biggest asset on this team. Without him, its either Cedeno or McEwing out there on Cameron's day off and if Cameron gets injured... wow... that will be bad... You might see Jeff Duncan, but he needs minor league at bats badly...
As for no one hitting besides McEwing, both Piazza and Cameron have been hitting the ball well.
Not that I disagree with your evaluation -- 75-80 wins, unless things break very, very (and unexpectedly) well. But that was an awfully bleak take on the spring to this point.
Jeremy: If Duncan gets called up, it'll be to start in Cameron's absence. So he won't just be sitting on the bench; whether in Norfolk or at Shea, he'll be playing every day.
I just don't see this. Other than some potential relief prospects who are being crowded out by Franco, Stanton, and Weathers, I don't think you can name a single truly young player who has been held back since mid-2003 by the Mets acquiring or keeping a veteran. Don't give me Scutaro; he's 28 years old. Diaz, Duncan and Garcia? None are truly ready for a major league job, and belong in the minors getting ABs and experience.
Starters? Seo got his chance and made the most of it last year. Heilman, too, got a shot last year, and will get another chance before 2004 is out. Roberts is probably going to get the 5th starter role, and if he doesn't, Yates might. Either way, the path for both of them is wide open, and the organization is clearly anxious for them to succeed.
They worked in Wigginton and Reyes and Phillips last year. The other position players of value aren't really ready yet, but are making their moves.
The point is, folks, the youth movement has begun, and will gradually continue, turning over the roster gradually and, I expect, virtually completely by 2006. The last truly objectionable, misguided signing was Glavine; we will look back on that deal as the death spasm of the Phillips Era, and by 2006 we will look back at this point and wonder why we didn't realize the process was unfolding before our very eyes.
You cannot be serious. Matsui has had what? 50 ABs of spring training games and suddenly he is Roberto Alomar (who btw hit over 300 in his spring training as a Met)? While I'm a little bit worried about Kaz right now, i hope you didn't expect him to become a superstar as soon as he got here. After all, Hideki (an even better hitter than Kaz) struggled mightly in his first two months before finally adjusting to the different pitches:
Hideki Matsui 2003
April 255/322/368
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