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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 13, 2006

Cincinnati Reds - Tanked the 2006 season.

Washington Nationals - Acquired OF Austin Kearns, SS Felipe Lopez and P Ryan Wagner from the Cincinnati Reds for SS Royce Clayton, 3B Brendan Harris,  P Bill Bray, P Gary Majewski, and P Daryl Thompson.

Wow.

Wow.

Wow.

If I were a Reds fans, I’d be choking back the vomit right about now.  The Reds, a team in contention, have just given up two of their most important position players to pick up 2 good relievers, a horrible SS, a waiver-wire 3B, and a decent pitching prospect with some injury problems.

What else can be said about this trade?  I’ve heard some talk about a Kearns trade this morning, but I never envisioned the horror that was unleashed by Wayne Krivsky on Cincinnati fans.  The Nats have suddenly acquired two solid regulars in their 20s for players they don’t really need. 

Seriously, is Alfonso Soriano and unnamed player to be named later or something?

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 13, 2006 at 07:54 PM | 240 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Fear is Moses Taylor's Bacon Bits Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2097811)
This trade makes no sense for the Reds. None whatsoever.
   2. Foster Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2097812)
I rubbed my eyes a few times when I saw this hit the wires. Dan, I guess you answered my question about whether I might be missing something here. Just... inexplicable.
   3. GregD Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:07 PM (#2097813)
I believe I have strong powers of empathy; I can imagine why people do awful, unspeakable things. I cannot imagine why the Reds made this trade. Literally, I can't even come up with a bad reason they might have used to justify it. Royce Clayton's hair?
   4. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2097815)
Geez. I wish the Cubs had offered up two of their veteran relievers, Neifi, and a couple of middling youngsters (or not-so-youngsters) for Kearns, Lopez, and Wagner.
   5. Free Rob Base Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:08 PM (#2097816)
That Nats lineup looks pretty good -- vidro, johnson, kearns, soriano, zimmerman, guillen -- at least on paper.
   6. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2097818)
Well, Dial says Lopez has been playing the worst SS in the National League, and it's by quite a margin, so there's something to be said for a defensive upgrade, I guess.

Hey, I got nothin'. I don't get it, either.
   7. cseadog Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:09 PM (#2097820)
Well, people here have been clamoring to free Chris Denorfia, but this...
   8. Pint of blood = Quart of Scotch Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2097821)
If Allard Baird was still in KC, the Royals could have topped this deal. Fire Dayton Moore!
   9. Sweet Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:10 PM (#2097822)
I know almost every other team can say this, too, but . . . the Cubs couldn't have beaten the Nats' offer? I'd have given Eyre, Howry, Dempster, Neifi, and Dusty for Kearns and Lopez.
   10. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2097824)
Dogs and cats living together, total chaos.
   11. ckash Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2097825)
Not a good day for athletes born in central Kentucky:

Kearns to the Nats

Barbaro (almost) to the grave
   12. Mister High Standards Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2097826)
Lets go folks! Come one start bashing Bowden... You know you want... you live for it.

BAH!

Bowden with another good move.
   13. DCW3 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:13 PM (#2097827)
As a Cardinals fan, this is awesome. But this isn't one of those trades where you can see how somebody without a sabermetric background might like it--I don't know how anybody could possibly think this makes any sense whatsoever for the Reds.
   14. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:14 PM (#2097828)
This has Ryan Freel's fingerprints all over it.
   15. RickG Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2097830)
Horrible. Just horrible.

My wife just emailed me: "WHAT ARE THE REDS DOING?" She's a Cardinal fan, but in February said the Reds would win it all. Now she's happy, but sad.
   16. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:16 PM (#2097831)
Until now, I thought Krivsky had made some nice, small moves in his short tenure. This is mind boggling.
   17. bunyon Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:17 PM (#2097832)
I have an uneasy feeling Griffey pulls a hammy tonight.
   18. Bobby Savoy Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:17 PM (#2097833)
Well, I had good feelings about Krivsky when he quickly cut bait with Womack. But this just drops him down to the bottom of the list. As a Cubs fan, you'd think Hendry could've mirrored the Nats in some way--Neifi, Mabry, Eyre, Howry, and some minor league arm. Probably too busy working on that year-long Walker trade.
   19. rb's team is hopeful for the new year! Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:18 PM (#2097834)
This is reminiscent of late 90's mariners trades.
   20. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:19 PM (#2097835)
Literally, I can't even come up with a bad reason they might have used to justify it. Royce Clayton's hair?

Not even that. He ditched the dreads this year.
   21. radioman Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2097837)
I just traded my dirty undies and a big ball of lint to the Reds for Adam Dunn, Brandon Phillips and Bronson Arroyo.
   22. Bobby Savoy Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2097838)
Sweet, you're right. I forgot to throw Dusty in there to sweeten the deal.
   23. Pint of blood = Quart of Scotch Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2097839)
Steinbrennes just paged Cashman to the office . . . You've got to think this really stings the Yankess, considering the need. Glad to see they couldn't swing it. Minaya = Genius.
   24. The Artist Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:20 PM (#2097840)
Wow. Just wow. How dumb does one have to be to lose to Jim Bowden ?
   25. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2097841)
I don't know how anybody could possibly think this makes any sense whatsoever for the Reds.

OK, I'm going to try.

"Our bullpen has been an unmitigated disaster. We are in a position to contend this year, but to do that we simply had to add some quality arms in the pen to help us convert some of those leads into wins. To do that, we knew we'd have to give up something of value, and obviously Austin Kearns is a very valuable player. We feel, however, that we have the offense to compensate for his loss. Majewski and Bray will make a huge difference for us late in games, and that was a primary need if we're going to stay in this race in the second half.

As for Felipe Lopez, we just have to get better in the field. It's that simple. We know he's a talented player, but unless we start catching the ball better and making the other team beat us, we're not going to be able to win consistently. Royce Clayton is a fine player, and he will solidify our infield."

I haven't looked at any press releases or anything, but their story's got to be something along those lines, doesn't it?
   26. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2097843)
Ring ... ring ... ring.

"Nationals. Bowden speaking."
"Jim, it's Wayne. Listen, I have a trade to run past you. How about Kearns for Clayton, Harris, Bray, Majewski and Thompson?"
"Ha! Only if you throw in Lopez and Wagner. Now, seriously ..."
"Done! I'll phone it in to Bud."
Click.
"Wait ... what?"
   27. The Ghost of Archi Cianfrocco Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2097844)
Woooohoooo!

OK, Krivsky, now get our boy in the lineup STAT.

... I can't believe this trade, it looks terrible for the Reds but it's for the greater good.
   28. nmc Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:21 PM (#2097845)
Justify your existence, Reds. Royce Clayton had better be worth it!!!!

/Go Brewers!
   29. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:22 PM (#2097846)
I find it difficult to believe Hendry couldn't've leveraged the team's Outstanding Young Pitching™ into a Kearns deal in the offseason, given how desperate the Reds were to get rid of him (hell, they actually dumped him for nothing AFTER they got into contention). That the best fruit the pitching prospect tree bore was Juan Pierre (in exchange for THREE of 'em) speaks very poorly of Hendry's imagination, negotiating skills, aggressiveness, or all three.
   30. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:23 PM (#2097848)
Sam, were you a debater in high school? Because that was a hell of an effort.
   31. HowardMegdal Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:23 PM (#2097849)
Any reason to think Ryan Wagner will turn out to be good? What is the upside on this for Nats- are they wild card contenders? Is this enough of a young nucleus (with Johnson, Soriano, etc.) that they resign Soriano, grab some pitching this offseason and contend next year?

I don't think it quite gets them there- but wow, it certainly improves them to the point they have to strongly consider avoiding a complete teardown job.
   32. SuperGrover Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2097851)
Tom Smykowski: It's a "Jump to Conclusions mat". You see, you have this mat, with different CONCLUSIONS written on it that you could JUMP TO.

Michael Bolton: That's the worst idea I've ever heard in my life, Tom.

Samir: Yes, this is horrible, this idea.
   33. Kurt Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:25 PM (#2097852)
That Nats lineup looks pretty good -- vidro, johnson, kearns, soriano, zimmerman, guillen -- at least on paper.

Not unless they move to the AL, or move one of those guys to center. Bye bye, Jose Guillen.
   34. Mister High Standards Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2097853)
Wagner is crappy.

Where are the Nats going to play Kearns? CF?
   35. GregD Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2097854)
Was anybody on this site not a debater in high school?
   36. WillYoung Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2097855)
John ####### Mabry!
   37. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:26 PM (#2097857)
Lets go folks! Come one start bashing Bowden... You know you want... you live for it.


I, uh, I uh...
can't do it....


Bowdens' problem isn't that he can't swing a good deal on occasion, it't the fitting of those pieces into a team-

assuming there's nor eason to Kearns' injury woes will return, and FLopez' Dee is going to deteriorate any further this looks like a really good deal he just pulled off.
   38. zonk Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#2097859)
Is this the worst trade ever?

I'm having a tough time thinking of a trade LESS defensible than this one... Even the Kazmir trade - at least you could wiggle out using the TINSTAAPP principle.

Certainly - there are bad trades in retrospect, but I honestly cannot recall a trade a that looked this god awful when it was made.

If nothing else, I think this guarantees that no matter how bad the Cubs get, there will always be the Reds to show they can get worse.
   39. Ignatius J. Reilly Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:27 PM (#2097860)
Denorfia to RF, Freel to 2B, and Phillips to SS with Clayton as a backup MIF?
   40. cseadog Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:28 PM (#2097863)
Nice things to say: (1) it's not a salary dump; (2) we need BP help and we got it (3)Denorfia is better than Kearns so we traded something of perceived value, rather than let Kearns rot on the bench or Denorfia in AAA; (4) Clayton is a huge upgade defensively at ss and not much of a loss at the plate, so this is just like Nomar for Cabrera. I'm just like Theo.
   41. ckash Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:28 PM (#2097864)
From the Reds message board:

On the surface, it may look bad, but do we want a better bullpen or not? How many games has the bullpen lost us? How many games have Kearns and Lopez won us? Look at it from that perspective and the trade makes a lot more sense.



And there are a lot more posts echoing these sentiments.
   42. Chris in Wicker Park Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:29 PM (#2097865)
I am stunned. Omar should be offering Lima, Oliver and Bell for Dunn.
   43. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:30 PM (#2097867)
This sounds like a deal that a crazed Nationals fan would propose on a call-in radio show . . .

where even the host would say that it's ridiculous and would never actually happen.
   44. Orange & Blue Velvet Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:30 PM (#2097868)
As for Felipe Lopez, we just have to get better in the field.

Clayton 570.2 -4.6 -11
Lopez 611 -7.5 -16
Not much of an upgrade, yeah?
   45. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:32 PM (#2097871)
Theo should be offering Wily Mo for Arroyo. Nahh, no GM would make that trade.
   46. Morph Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2097872)
I just saw this transaction on the bottom line of ESPN News. After seeing what the Nats got, my first reaction was:

" Wow! Soriano's a Red."

Man, what a terrible trade. Just horrible.
   47. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2097873)
Any reason to think Ryan Wagner will turn out to be good?


None whatsoever. He throws hard without much movement and has nothing in the way of a good offspeed pitch to keep the hitters off-balance.

The Reds called up Denorfia and Bergolla to fill the roster slots for tonight's game. Bergolla will go right back down when Clayton reports (probably tomorrow) and the Reds will dump two pitchers when Majewski and Bray arrive (also probably tomorrow) - I have to think that Standridge will be one of them, and Mercker's the most likely candidate to be the other.

Sam M's post in #25 has to be what the Reds were thinking. The whining from the media about the bullpen had grown to near-cosmic proportions, and the rumblings about Lopez's defense weren't very far behind that.

-- MWE
   48. PJ Martinez Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2097874)
"Where are the Nats going to play Kearns? CF?"

I assume they trade Soriano. If they can get a player ready to make an impact next year, and sign a good FA or two in the offseason, they could contend for the WC next season, or even make a run at the Mets if Pedro and Glavine break down.
   49. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:33 PM (#2097875)
Lopez is terrible in the field? For some reason, I always thought his reputation was excellent. Well shoot me for not following the lesser league.

This deal stuns me and I don't get it. What amazes me even more is that Bowden got the best of Krivsky.
   50. MikeinMI Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#2097878)
If this trade happened in my strat-o-matic league, I'd protest.
   51. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#2097879)
I find it difficult to believe Hendry couldn't've leveraged the team's Outstanding Young Pitching™ into a Kearns deal in the offseason

Can we quit bring this back to the Cubs? We all know that Hendry is busy actively evaluating the Cubs coaching staff . . .
   52. The Ghost of Archi Cianfrocco Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#2097880)
Theo should be offering Wily Mo, Seanez and Tavarez for Dunn. C'mon! You need VETERANS in that new bullpen! Bright, Shiny, Veterans!

Actually, eff that, Wily Mo, Seanez, Tavarez and Foulke for Dunn and Denorfia!

Bring Denorfia back to New England? BRILLIANT!
   53. Mister High Standards Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:34 PM (#2097881)
btw: this is the type of trade that ends up inexplicably helping the reds... there is one trade a year that never makes sense and always works against the primates... this is it...

though for the love of mike i don't see how this works for the reds.
   54. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:35 PM (#2097883)
Sam, were you a debater in high school? Because that was a hell of an effort.

Sort of. Public speaking, but not debate per se. And thanks -- not an easy trade to defend, that's for sure.

And it actually IS a lot like the Kazmir trade in design: a GM with a single-minded focus (Duquette: Must bring in immediate starting pitching, no matter the cost; Krivsky: Must remake bullpen by end of all-star break, no matter the cost), who doesn't think big-picture, and who doesn't look at accomplishing a goal over a series of four or five moves but only at Trade A producing Result X. Period. Very, very bad.

And another thing they have in common: a serious mis-over-estimation of the team's realistic chances to contend, and thus overvaluing the benefits of any short-term gains you THINK you are getting (e.g., Clayton's defense; bullpen improvement) over long-term quality (every other part of the deal). Again . . . very, very bad.
   55. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:36 PM (#2097885)
On the surface, it may look bad, but do we want a better bullpen or not? How many games has the bullpen lost us? How many games have Kearns and Lopez won us? Look at it from that perspective and the trade makes a lot more sense.


How many games will you bullpen NOT get a chance to blow for you now?
   56. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2097886)
"What is the upside on this for Nats- are they wild card contenders?"

Honestly, at this point they might be.

"I'm having a tough time thinking of a trade LESS defensible than this one..."

Ramirez and Lofton to Chicago for Hernandez, Bruback, and Hill. Always glad to help.
   57. 44magnum Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2097888)
I wouldn't be surprised if Encarnacion and Freel get buried on the bench in favor of Aurilia & Clayton.
   58. Bob Loblaw Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:37 PM (#2097889)
Suppose we grant the fact that the Reds need to upgrade their bullpen badly enough that losing Kearns and Lopez is OK.

Are Majewski and Bray really good enough relievers that they upgrade the bullpen significantly enough to make a difference?

Majewski has 34 strikeouts and 25 walks in 55 1/3 innings. Bray has 16 strikeouts and nine walks in 23 innings.

Who thinks Guardado, Coffey, Majewski, Bray constitutes a good bullpen? It might not even be an average bullpen.
   59. Sean McNally Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#2097891)
I am shocked by this...

The Nats now have the second-best left side of the infield in the division. Good times.

As for the outfield, Kearns plays center until Soriano is traded (which he still will be) and then moves to left with the return of Alex Escobar (stop laughing, he was on a tear going into the break).

Majewski is a fungible reliever, though I would have liked to see Bray stick around, but honestly, who needs shutdown short relief when you're gonna stink.

Wagner might be something useful given the change of scenery.

All hail our new Lerner/Kastern/Bowden(yes, Bowden) overlords.

Also to consider, could Kearns be on the "Piazza plan" and on his way out of town shortly?

Anything's possible with this team and I love it!
   60. Nasty Nate Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:39 PM (#2097892)
Denorfia to RF, Freel to 2B, and Phillips to SS with Clayton as a backup MIF?


This was my thought too.

Theo should be offering Wily Mo, Seanez and Tavarez for Dunn. C'mon! You need VETERANS in that new bullpen! Bright, Shiny, Veterans!


well mock this trade accordingly, but he seemed to not be swayed by veteran magic. The relief pitchers in the deal are young and cheap.
   61. My guest will be Jermaine Allensworth Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:40 PM (#2097893)
My first thought was that maybe these players are only making temporary stops in Cincinnati.

Even if that's the case....WTF?
   62. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:41 PM (#2097895)
Can we quit bring this back to the Cubs? We all know that Hendry is busy actively evaluating the Cubs coaching staff . . .

Oh yeah. The all star break's not over yet, after all.
   63. Kurt Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2097896)
As a Nats fan, I have to say even Lopez's "bad" season looks pretty darn good, defense be damned. In fact, I'd say he immediately becomes the best shorstop in Nationals history.
   64. Kyle S Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:42 PM (#2097897)
Mike, I remember reading that Wagner's slider graded out as an 80 in college. I take it that's no longer the case? I'd certainly rather have Bray than him in any event.
   65. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#2097899)
btw: this is the type of trade that ends up inexplicably helping the reds... there is one trade a year that never makes sense and always works against the primates... this is it...


Kearns gets hurt, F.Lopez's fliiding gets worse and he lsoes all HR power in RFK, Clayton doesn't suck too badly, and Denorfia gets called up and hits 325/400/525 in half a season...

It's baseball anytghing can happen- Schuerholz ended up winning the Millwood trade- how did that look at the time?
   66. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:43 PM (#2097901)
Ramirez and Lofton to Chicago for Hernandez, Bruback, and Hill. Always glad to help.

At least that trade accomplished the well-advertised goal of being a salary dump, didn't it?
   67. The Ghost of Archi Cianfrocco Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2097902)
I was less mocking the trade and more trying to get him to balance out the youth with experience.

Like most, I think Kearns and Lopez were worth more but at least Krivsky brought the payroll down. I just don't see these guys as having the big potential that the trade should have had. It *IS* impressive to see him go for younger players rather than the retreads. Now they just have to come through.
   68. phredbird Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2097903)
i laughed out loud at #26
   69. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:44 PM (#2097904)
The Nats now have the second-best left side of the infield in the division.

Hmmmmmm . . . . You think Zimmerman and Lopez are better than Chipper and Renteria? Actually, I'd still place them 4th, behind Cabrera and Ramirez, too.

Poor Jimmy Rollins. The only guy in the division without a decent dance partner . . . .
   70. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:45 PM (#2097905)
My first thought was that maybe these players are only making temporary stops in Cincinnati.

Even if that's the case....WTF?


Could be, but none of the players they got are anywhere near as valuable as trading chits as the ones they gave up, so what's the point? I can't fathom how they'd come out ahead here.
   71. Mister High Standards Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:45 PM (#2097906)
Kyle - exactly correct.
   72. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2097907)
The Nats now have the second-best left side of the infield in the division. Good times.

I'd put 'em third, after Reyes/Wright and Ramirez/Cabrera.
   73. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2097908)
Ramirez and Lofton to Chicago for Hernandez, Bruback, and Hill. Always glad to help.

--At least that trade accomplished the well-advertised goal of being a salary dump, didn't it?


Also, keep in mind that Lofton was going to be a FA at the end of the season and Ramirez was a frustrating and largely unreliable prospect (albeit with great promise), while Hill was at his peak value, Bruback showed promise (and was also at his peak), and Hernandez was . . well, Hernandez.

Yeah, it was a bad deal at the time, and it certainly looks worse now, but it wasn't the howler this one is.
   74. Guapo Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2097909)
What is the upside on this for Nats- are they wild card contenders?"

Honestly, at this point they might be.


With all due respect, no f'ing way.

The rotation is currently:

Livan Hernandez- 5.94 ERA
Ramon Ortiz
Pedro Astacio
and whoever of John Patterson and Tony Armas isn't hurt that week, and I guess they'll call Mike O'Connor back up.

The bullpen is currently:
Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch
Mike Stanton's corpse
and literally, nobody else, since Majewski and Bray are gone.

I like this trade (if for no other reason, I was sick of watching Royce Clayton waste atbats), but the Nats are going to be giving up a LOT of runs in the 2nd half.
   75. vortex of dissipation Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:49 PM (#2097910)
Sam M.:

As a Reds fan, I appreciate the effort to explain what the Reds were thinking. But this seems to be the equivalent of a sixteenth-century physician bleeding the patient to death in order to try to save him. It's indefensible. As a trade, I know it doesn't compare in historical importance, but the feeling in the pit of my stoumach right now is probably similar to how you felt when the Mets traded Tom Seaver to the Reds...
   76. Spahn Insane Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:49 PM (#2097911)
Oh yeah--Chipper and Renteria, too. Well, Zimmerman/Lopez might beat them in the near future, if not now.
   77. Kyle S Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:52 PM (#2097914)
The Nats now have the second-best left side of the infield in the division. Good times.

Interesting point of view. These are the NL East SS/3B pairings (2006 OPS):

(a) David Wright (966)/Jose Reyes (848)
(b) Chipper Jones (923)/Edgar Renteria (861)
(c) Miguel Cabrera (998)/Hanley Ramirez (750)
(d) David Bell (696)/Jimmy Rollins (744)
(e) Ryan Zimmerman (827)/Felipe Lopez (749)
   78. HowardMegdal Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:52 PM (#2097915)
"It's baseball anytghing can happen- Schuerholz ended up winning the Millwood trade- how did that look at the time?"

Yes, but the point is not that one can predict the future. I heard the same thing at the time of Kazmir/Zambrano- well, let's see how they do. That is not the issue. The issue is one team got much more actual at-the-time value than the other.
   79. Mike Emeigh Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:53 PM (#2097916)
Mike, I remember reading that Wagner's slider graded out as an 80 in college. I take it that's no longer the case?


You take it correctly.

-- MWE
   80. 44magnum Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2097918)
I'd imagine Esteban Yan will be 1st to go. After that, Weathers/Mercker/Mays are all awful.

Really thought the Reds could have gotten a starting pitcher out of any deal involving Kearns.
   81. Dewey, Crackpot and Soupuss Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:55 PM (#2097920)
Holy crap - I step out for lunch, and this happens?

Holy crap. I'm reading this over and over again. It makes no sense.
   82. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2097921)
As a trade, I know it doesn't compare in historical importance, but the feeling in the pit of my stoumach right now is probably similar to how you felt when the Mets traded Tom Seaver to the Reds...

If that's what you are feeling, VoD, then you have my profound sympathy. Because that was the worst feeling of my baseball fan life -- and my love for the game and the Mets didn't recover for years. Literally, years.
   83. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2097922)
I find it difficult to believe Hendry couldn't've leveraged the team's Outstanding Young Pitching™ into a Kearns deal in the offseason

Can we quit bring this back to the Cubs?

Yea. This isn't so much an issue of Hendry screwing up. It's a case of Bowden knocking one out of the park. Sure the Cubs could've offered more. Hell, 28 teams could've more to the Reds than the Nationals did -- more than 28 if you include the Pioneer League.

That's sounds like an old apocryphal story where one GM gets the other GM drunk and gets him to agree to all sorts of ludicrous offers.

Way to go for the Nationals.
   84. Aevan Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:56 PM (#2097923)
Indefensible. Bray and Majewski are both young relievers, true, but they are still just relievers. Majewski's BB/SO ratio is unimpressive, as is Bray's. Royce Clayton is an old and getting older shortstop who does not hit and whose defensive reputation far outstrips his actually contribution with the leather. Brendan Harris is a 25 year old bad 2nd baseman who has shown little ability to hit well enough to play anywhere else (he has hit well in the past in the minors, but last year posted a .270 .329 .417 line in 517 AB), and Brandon Phillips blocks the way at 2nd, Encarnation at 3rd (I think there's a good possibilty that Clayton is now the starter at SS and that Freel, not Denorfia will take over for Kearns). Daryl Thompson is not a can't miss pitching prospect and has some definite injury concerns.

The Nationals get an excellent corner outfielder who can probably handle center whose hitting .274 .351 .492 and is still on the upside of his career. A shortstop whose putting up a decent offensive line, and whose defense is comparable to the person he's replacing and a minor-league reliever who throws hard, but is otherwise unimpressive.

In other words, Bowden fleeces his former team.
   85. Hack Wilson Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:59 PM (#2097925)
Key man in the deal is clearly Brendan Harris. Somebody on the Reds must have saved this Baseball Pro discussion of top prospects:

When I got to the Brendan Harris write-up and looked at his numbers carefully, a strange sensation came over me. (Go ahead, Derek--make an Aussie crack; it's good to get it out of your system.) I checked the numbers, and lo and behold...well, look it up yourself:

Brendan Harris, 2002 = Albert Pujols, 2000

There are some differences--notably that Harris was a classification higher than Pujols--but the raw numbers are eerily similar. Harris is the biggest sleeper prospect in the game, and I was compelled to move him into our Top 20.
LINK
   86. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:59 PM (#2097926)
"At least that trade accomplished the well-advertised goal of being a salary dump, didn't it?"

Immediately after the trade, Pirate management issued statements denying that the deal was a salary dump.
   87. JPWF13 Posted: July 13, 2006 at 08:59 PM (#2097927)
but the feeling in the pit of my stoumach right now is probably similar to how you felt when the Mets traded Tom Seaver to the Reds...


1: You didn't just trade someone who was already a certain hall of famer- in fact I seriously doubt you just traded a future Hall of Famer

but...

2: The Mets in Steve Henderson and Pat Zachary in all likelihood got back more in that trade than the Reds did in this one
   88. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:00 PM (#2097928)
I think the Reds won this deal.

(Ok, I don't believe it, but thought that someone should say it.)
   89. Sean McNally Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:01 PM (#2097930)
I over the next few years... I probably would take Lopez/Zimmerman vs. Cabrera/Ramirez... Chipper/Renteria are on the downslide and any infield that includes David Bill can't be considered in this list.
   90. Willie Mayspedes Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:02 PM (#2097931)
I like this trade (if for no other reason, I was sick of watching Royce Clayton waste atbats), but the Nats are going to be giving up a LOT of runs in the 2nd half.

Now you spin Soriano for better pitching than was given up in this trade I suspect.
   91. HowardMegdal Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:02 PM (#2097932)
Sam, what brought you back? Seaver returning in 1983?
   92. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:03 PM (#2097935)
"while Hill was at his peak value, Bruback showed promise (and was also at his peak)"

Hill was a PTBNL (and the Pirates' second choice at that), and Bruback was waived a few weeks later.
   93. Fred Garvin is dead and Joe Biden is alive Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:06 PM (#2097938)
Hill was a PTBNL (and the Pirates' second choice at that), and Bruback was waived a few weeks later.

Yeah, you're right. Hmmm.
   94. Nobody ##### with DeJesus Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:07 PM (#2097939)
I over the next few years... I probably would take Lopez/Zimmerman vs. Cabrera/Ramirez...

That's a bold statement.
   95. Hendry's Wad of Cash (UCCF) Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:07 PM (#2097940)
There are some differences--notably that Harris was a classification higher than Pujols--but the raw numbers are eerily similar. Harris is the biggest sleeper prospect in the game, and I was compelled to move him into our Top 20.

I remember that. Those were the rantings of a madman, like all of those "Dopirak is a star waiting to happen" stories that came out after he had a big season a couple of years later.

The time Harris actually made his way to the Cubs, Dusty wouldn't even let him off the bench. I seem to remember some defensive misadventures at 3B in his second start when he was called up to spell Ramirez (who may have been on the DL). After that, he sat on the bench for two weeks and got shipped back to the minors. And soon he was gone in the Nomar trade.
   96. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2097941)
Sam, what brought you back? Seaver returning in 1983?

No, it began a bit before that. First, the sale of the team was essential. Until the DeRoulets were gone, I just couldn't bear it. But it then also took the emergence of some young players with real talent and enthusiasm -- Mookie and Hubie were the real first ones. When they became the face of the "new" Mets in 1981, my interest was rekindled. Seaver coming home in 1983 really cinched it, though. No doubt.
   97. Dag Nabbit: secretary of the World Banana Forum Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:09 PM (#2097942)
This is the biggest blow the Reds have suffered since the Battle of Bia?ystok-Minsk.
   98. HowardMegdal Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:12 PM (#2097943)
I am too young to have been affected by the Seaver trade- and I really can't imagine it. Losing Strawberry was awful, but no one approaches Seaver. Frankly, the only players in Mets history it would be comparable to would be, say, 2012 Wright/Reyes. And we know that will never happen, please God...
   99. Sam M. Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2097945)
the Battle of Bia?ystok-Minsk.

Starring Nathan Lane and Matthew Broderick, of course.
   100. Gainsay Posted: July 13, 2006 at 09:13 PM (#2097946)
This looks like a sort of compromise trade for the Reds. They want to look like they are trying to contend this year, but also bring in 2 young arms that will be with the team for a while. To do this they gave up 2 decent players, at least one of whom (Kearns) was blocking a prospect and didn't figure into the future plans. Even Lopez was approaching free agency, and they might not have liked him enough to keep him around (or want to pay him what his arbitration number might be).

I'm pretty dubious that this makes them better for this year, but I also didn't really see them as legit contenders anyway. It is questionable that they got enough of a return for what they gave up. Pre-arbitration established ML pitching gets traded so rarely that this may just be what it costs.

From the Nats point of view, I guess it is a good trade, but I don't see how they are close to contending next year. They don't have any starting pitching and this doesn't improve that. Kearns and Lopez are going to hit their free agency years before the team is ready to contend, so they will either be a little pricey or gone. If Kearns is a starting corner outfielder next year, he's probably a downgrade on what you would project Guillen or Soriano to be. The best use for either of those guys is probably to flip them for prospects given the Nats situation.
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