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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, May 04, 2005
Cubs - DLed Wood
Chicago Cubs - Placed P Kerry Wood on the 15-day DL; recalled P Todd Wellemeyer
The Cubs being the Cubs, the extent of Wood’s injury is an unknown; this is a team that would probably describe John Hiller’s ailment as “minor circulatory ailment, day-to-day” if he had been a Cub. That they’re actually talking 6 weeks instead of a couple makes me think that Wood being out for the year is a very distinct possibility. Wood’s automatic option year won’t kick in now; even if Dusty tried, Wood is unlikely to survive long enough to throw 350 innings in 2005.
Wellemeyer is called up. He had been starting for Iowa, but he’ll be a long reliever again with the Cubs and Ryan Dempster remains in the rotation. I still don’t get the unhealthy fascination with The Dumpster. He’s this decade’s Dave Mlicki; a guy who has stuff that everyone raves about but when it’s all said and done, a guy who doesn’t have the hang of that whole pitching thing.
Dan Szymborski
Posted: May 04, 2005 at 02:11 PM | 46 comment(s)
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1. Brandon in MO (Yunitility Infielder) Posted: May 04, 2005 at 02:48 PM (#1310020)Facts:
1. Kerry Wood is a mammal.
2. Kerry Woods pitches ALL the time.
3. The purpose of Kerry Wood is to flip out and get injured.
If they do go back to 4 starters after that, it means there will be 8 guys in the bullpen.
I don't know what to say about Wood anymore, so I won't say anything.
I heard on another board that the Cubs may try to convert Wood to a closer, ala John Smoltz.
What do you guys think of that idea?
Great John Hiller comment, Dan. In related news, J.R. Richard will miss one start with a stiff neck.
The Cubs have been denying that rumor for over a year now. It's nothing new, and I don't think there's anything to it.
And he likely won't be a Cub past next year anyway, based on his contract situation.
Kerry Wood, At bats per walk, by pitch number, (2002-2005 splits, espn)
Pitch 1-15 9.14
Pitch 16-30 6.64
Pitch 31-45 8.39
Pitch 45-60 6.78
Pitch 61-75 8.09
Pitch 76-90 10.07
Pitch 91-105 8.08
Pitch 106-120 9.91
So in the first 15 pitches, his walk rate is pretty low. It is pitch 16-30 that he tends to get wild.
Most one inning saves that are successful are completed in less than 20 innings. So this does not seem like it would be too big a problem. Of course the warm up and preperation routine for a start vs. a relief appearance is completely different, so who knows how it would affect him. But based on the playing record, this does not seem to be an issue.
How many young arms, Jim, must be sacrificed at the Altar of Dusty Baker, before you realize he has stolen your team's youth and made it old and broken?
Why Cub fans aren't at the gates of Wrigley with pitchforks and torches and demending Hendry and Baker's heads on platters is beyond me. This team will not see the north side of .500 as long as they're both around.
uh.....make that 20 pitches. Sorry, I really need to preview comments and edit more often.
The other issue is usage ... how often could he or would he have to pitch. Dusty likes to ride those bullpen aces pretty hard, and while it's not a starter workload, it might have the same effect on a guy with a lot of mileage and damage.
Sadly, that's probably true. Unless he's willing to take the buyout and sign a new, incentive-laden contract, he'll never see $10M/yr again (barring a recovery now and CYA-type performance in 2006).
I wonder sometimes how serious all that Wood-for-Teixiera talk was a few years back. Ace pitchers are hard to come by, but with his injury history that would have been awfully tempting.
Not counting either of their first full seasons, right? You know, the first two back to back winning seasons since a decade before you played there.
I have no problems with Hendry, per se. His biggest weakness is Dusty, and he may have significant pull higher in the organization. They do seem to have a bit of a power struggle thing going on now.
Kerry Wood gets injured. It's what he does. I've got a hard time blaming Dusty for this one.
If Cubs end up under .500 and Prior or Zambrano go down at some point, it has to be a pretty strong possibility, right?
It would have to be at least that. Dusty has another year on his contract for about $4mil, so it'll be hard to get the Trib to pay that without him here.
Odds are he'll be back next year, but not re-signed.
If Cubs end up under .500 and Prior or Zambrano go down at some point, it has to be a pretty strong possibility, right?
The problem is, he (and the team) can always blame it on injuries. If Nomar and Walker and Wood and Borowski &c. hadn't gone down, then the team would have won 98 games, broken the curse, transcended life and become pure energy, yada yada yada.
I said before the beginning of the year that I'd rather see this team win 65 games than 85, and I stick by it. At 65 wins, there's a chance he's fired. At 85, there's no chance -- but no chance for the playoffs either.
Apparently wildness isn't his problem early in games, it's general effectiveness. His worst OPS's against are in the first inning and pitches 1-15.
Is he done with Golf?
Is there any manager who could have 'saved' Wood's arm? If you believe conventional wisdom, Kerry's throwing style was bound to lead to arm trouble no matter who was managing him.
Wood could probably make a very effective closer ala herky toe-tapping Rob Nen. Throwing fewer pitches could allow him to amp up the velocity...of course, it's also not the best use of resources...
Maybe the Cubs should trade him to Detroit for Urbina. Then he'd be the Tiger Wood.
Good question. I don't think anyone can answer it. Maybe no one could have. It all starts in high school baseball and how pitchers are used then.
Yeah, just what our bullpen needs -- a guy who throws hard, but can't find the plate with a map and a 5 minute head start. Dempster, Wellemeyer, Leicester, and Farnsworth aren't/weren't like that at all.
Pitch 16-30 6.64
Pitch 31-45 8.39
Pitch 45-60 6.78
Pitch 61-75 8.09
Pitch 76-90 10.07
Pitch 91-105 8.08
Pitch 106-120 9.91
So in the first 15 pitches, his walk rate is pretty low. It is pitch 16-30 that he tends to get wild.
Isn't there a bias here? I mean, clearly in pitches 1-3 he never walks anyone, etc..
And maybe its nobody's fault: He's thrown over a thousand big league innings over six + years, and maybe that's all he had in him.
I'll let the Cub Reporter's response to this stand on its own.
Odds are he'll be back next year, but not re-signed.
For the reasons il PDaddy states, I'd be stunned if Dusty was fired at the end of this year. Even if the team wins 65 games, the party line will be that it is unfair to judge Dusty with all these injuries (as if he didn't have anything to do with causing them).
The real question will be what happens next year. If the team is below .500 next year, with or without injuries, I think Dusty either gets the mid-season axe or, more likely, the Cubs look elsewhere at the end of the year.
Pitch 1-15 9.14
Pitch 16-30 6.64
Pitch 31-45 8.39
Pitch 45-60 6.78
Pitch 61-75 8.09
Pitch 76-90 10.07
Pitch 91-105 8.08
Pitch 106-120 9.91
I'm not really sure how to read this. Yes, I see the conclusion that he is more wild in pitches 16-30 (and in 45-60) than in other pitches.
One problem, though, is that Wood is likely to rack up 15 pitches in just a few hitters. If he were to be a closer, for instance, I suppose that means he might walk an average of somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 per 9ABs -- (depending on how many pitches per appearance), but so what?
My clouded thinking would prefer seeing a breakdown by pitch count not of AB/BB, but of BB/9 -- if he walks 4.5/9IP for Pitches 1-20 (perhaps a typical closer outing), it isn't a good sign and may be worse than what they have now.
Odds are he'll be back next year, but not re-signed.
I don't know. There's often a lot of pressure to extend a manager's contract before his lameduck year. If Dusty's a big enough pain about getting an extension, or if the Cubs simply don't want to run the risk that a successful 2006 campaign ties their hands, they may be willing to fork over the $4M.
If he's not extended, I think he'll get the mid-season axe next year.
It's awesome.
That depends on this year. If the Cubs win 85 games (whether or not they make the playoffs), I agree that there will be a push to extend Dusty beyone 2006. If they win less than 80, however, I can't see Dusty having the stones to demand a contract extension.
Heck, if they really stink, I can see Hendry getting the axe too.
Stupid computer.
It's awesome.
That is cool. I won 10-9. I made some stupid Dusty-like decisions that led to a whole lot of runs.
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