Cubs - Dumped Jones, Monroe
Chicago Cubs - Traded OF Jacque Jones to the Detroit Tigers for IF Omar Infante, Traded OF Craig Monroe to the Twins for a player to be named later.
The Chicago Cubs are the clear winner here as they probably got the two most valuable players of the four, assuming that the player to be named is a sentient being that isn’t Nick Punto.
Yes, Craig Monroe and Jacque Jones are both usable as platoon players. Problem is, the whole purpose of platoon players is that it’s damn easy to find one. So what if Craig Monroe can hit lefty pitchers? So does any right-handed outfielder that can slug a has a bit of isolated power - it’s not a rare skill. Hell, I could also buy a used car for $2000, put a little flag on it, park it at the edge of the driveway, and it would be a perfectly serviceable mailbox. Or, I could act like someone with a room temperature IQ and buy an actual mailbox for $40.
Jones is a little better and played admirably in center, but he’s also another limited player, who just had a dramatic loss of power well past his 30th birthday and is moving to a tougher ballpark and a tougher general environment.
Monroe was a below-average hitter when he “starred” for the Tigers championship run a couple of years ago and he’s certainly worse than that after an excrement-laden 219/268/370 in 2007. Some players have young players’ skills, some players have old players’ skills, and some players have players in wheelchairs waiting for Sunday night bingo skills. Guess where Monroe is? Not to mention that there’s no way he gets less than $5 million in arbitration for this upcoming season and that the Twins have already spent a good chunk of the Hunter savings on absolutely nothing doesn’t bode well for the new regime. I’m not even a Twins fans and I’m furious - I can’t imagine how pissed off our old friend Aaron Gleeman will be once he sees Monroe hitting in the middle of the order.
Big thumbs up to Hendry. Omar Infante’s not a very valuable player, but he’s a good utility guy, he has a little pop, he can play short a little or fill in for a month at 2nd without killing you. Now Hendry likes to accumulate second basemen like that, but Infante’s probably the best player in the trade, the cheapest of the three named players, and Jim Hendry just saved $10 million minus Infante’s salary.
2008 ZiPS Projection - Jacque Jones
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 415 50 111 19 1 10 54 30 74 5 .267 .321 .390
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Opt. (15%) 450 64 129 24 2 14 73 41 74 7 .287 .351 .442
Pes. (15%) 242 24 58 9 0 4 24 13 48 2 .240 .282 .336
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Top Comps: Jeromy Burnitz, George Altman
2008 ZiPS Projection - Craig Monroe
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 433 57 102 24 0 16 62 30 118 1 .236 .286 .402
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Opt. (15%) 473 75 126 31 1 21 85 40 115 2 .266 .325 .469
Pes. (15%) 269 30 58 13 0 8 29 15 79 0 .216 .257 .353
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Top Comps: Rip Repulski, Wally Post
2008 ZiPS Projection - Omar Infante
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 303 38 80 18 3 5 30 17 54 5 .264 .305 .393
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Opt. (15%) 341 51 97 24 4 8 43 24 55 7 .284 .333 .449
Pes. (15%) 143 15 34 7 1 2 11 7 29 2 .238 .276 .343
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Top Comps: Keith Miller, Corky Guerrero
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 14, 2007 at 12:38 AM |
88 comment(s)
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1. Meatwads stronger now, ready for the house Posted: November 14, 2007 at 01:29 AM (#2613943)Or as or even more likely, since he was probably going to be non-tendered, the Twins make an offer below $5mil, and if Monroe balks, he gets non-tendered.
Or as or even more likely, since he was probably going to be non-tendered, the Twins make an offer below $5mil, and if Monroe balks, he gets non-tendered.
Is Bob Davidson on the negotiating team?
He's a 33 year old who just had his worse professional season at 32. He's had a disturbing drop in power and he's moving to a tougher hitting environment. He had that bad season while being put in a role that should have been *more* conducive to him. That's the formula for a guy who will be lucky to see 34 as a baseball player.
Who the crap is Corky Guerrero?
A baseball player.
The reports I've seen have the Cubs sending some money to the Tigers, though I haven't seen any which say how much. Also, it's not exactly like the Cubs "save" $5 M by getting rid of Monroe. They paid only a bit of his salary last year and were going to non-tender him this year (i.e. they owed him no guaranteed money). My guess is the Cubs have really saved only about $2 M here (relative to last year's payroll).
It was initially suprising to see Infante project as well as Jones, but then Dan reminded me that some chunk of that is hitting environments. Though I thought Wrigley was actually relatively tough on lefties -- at least I recall it suppresses LH HR. Don't remember if ZIPS park factor are RH/LH specific.
As to Monroe, especially with Murton around, it made no sense to pick him up in the first place and so it makes no sense to keep him.
Latest reports have the Cubs sending 2M along with Jacque who wad due 6.33M when including his signing bonus. That leaves the Cubs saving 2.5-2.75M and get a redundant player as a bonus.
This was a bad trade because I refuse to believe this was the best you could get for Jones. Jones rated out as a good defensive CF and has never slugged as low as he did last year(dead cat bounce at least) If Hendry would have been patient, I'm pretty sure he coulda peddled Jones as a cheap consolation prize to a team that whiffed on FA OFs. The fact that he's only signed for 1 year makes him attractive as well.
I don't understand what you mean by this.
Don't mean to speak for Dan, but I assume he means that for the first time in his career, Jones's manager finally sat him against lefty pitchers.
One would think this would improve his overall stats immensely considering his 630 career OPS against LHP, but nope.
Wilton
But his OBA/SLG for the last 3 seasons are, .335/.400, .334/.499, and .319/.438. An eyeball projection, including age, would be something like .325/.435. That's noticeably better than .321/.390. So, what is ZIPS picking up, and how valid is it? The stuff that Dan mentions is just testimonial stuff, and AFAIK has not been shown to be reliable.
Looking at his various PBP fielding ratings in CF, it looks like he is quite OK there (may not hold for the larger centerfields). Watching most Cubs games, he looked fine in CF to me, FWIW. So, even though Jones wants to play everyday, he would be a nice platoon CFer for teams that don't have a good regular there. As a full-time RF or LF, he is probably just a couple steps above replacement.
But his OBA/SLG for the last 3 seasons are, .335/.400, .334/.499, and .319/.438. An eyeball projection, including age, would be something like .325/.435. That's noticeably better than .321/.390. So, what is ZIPS picking up, and how valid is it? The stuff that Dan mentions is just testimonial stuff, and AFAIK has not been shown to be reliable.
The aging curve for players like Jones is extremely sharp - below-average players have horrific aging curves in their 30s.
Fine. But, instead of just saying so, how 'bout some references?
Brock2 has Jones at .309/.383 in 2008
He's a 33 year old whose last 4 seasons by OPS+ have been: 89, 98, 108 and 87.
I wouldn't want him anywhere near my team
Dan may very well be right - perhaps Jones plunges off a cliff this season and starts thinking about spending summers with the family as soon as 2009. The thing is - I just do NOT buy that there aren't a few stupid GMs out there who would think otherwise. I know Littlefield is no longer employed, Beatagan's been replaced by MacFail... but last I checked, Ned Colleti was still employed. Ken Williams is no idiot, but what's the Sox plan B if Hunter doesn't pan out? For that matter - if the Twins are willing to basically acquire a player they might well non-tender, who's to say they might not be interested in getting Jones back?
I mean - is there some unwritten rule that says when you suspect you have crap to deal, you must make sure you don't get more than crap back? We live in a world of Vic Zambranos being dealt for Kazmirs, where Jason Marquis gets a 3 year deal worth 21 mil, and where Neifi Perez continues to be gainfully employed wearing a major league uniform (suspension aside).
My problem isn't that I'd rather have Jones than Infante - my problem is that I just do not believe there isn't something better out there.
There was no reason to just dump Jones (besides the potential "unless" above), especially after a season of Lou proving that he's not the type to keep running worthless players out there. If Jones plunges off a cliff - Lou'll sit him and I'd be willing bet an Infante-type deal or maybe just a bit less would still be available next June or July.
I'd lay some money (maybe not "a lot") on the under for 415 at bats, as I don't think the Tigers are idiots. I think they know they got themselves a fourth outfielder.
But a guy who just slugged .400 in Wrigley Field in the AAAA league, heading to the AL and Comerica Park? .390 is reasonably generous - he's getting a significant boost from his 2006 that I wonder if he doesn't deserve.
I think we can all agree that the Bill Smith Era is not off to a roaring start.
ZiPS found a ton of guys of the type - want a big humongous list? The players ZiPS feels have similar profile to Jones averaged less than 1000 remaining at-bats in their careers and three-quarters of them had seen their last 500 AB season by year two.
Yet he was actually a bargain for the Cubs. He was good (not great) in 2006 and below average in 2007. But at $5-6 million a year, he was low paid for a corner outfielder. He played a nudge better than his salary.
How much money are the Cubs giving Detroit in the deal anyway? (reads thread). $2 million, eh? In that case, despite all the anger at his signing lo those years ago, it wasn't that bad a deal at all for the squad.
The aging curve for players like Jones is extremely sharp - below-average players have horrific aging curves in their 30s.
This? Makes a lotta sense. Someone who was really good becomes only good when he loses that step. Someone bad becomes really bad, and doesn't have the skills to improve on his meager talent set.
The opposing 5 pitching staffs in the NL Cen had an average ERA+ of 94. The four teams Detroit faces had an average ERA+ of 104.25.
Yeah. It is noticeably better cause one of the numbers begins with a 4. Big deal. Moving to New Tiger Stadium takes care of a big part of the 40 points of difference in slugging between Zips and your eyeball.
That and the fact that a bunch of people drop off a cliff in this age range, and I think that the Zips projection is perfectly reasonable. Easy enough to disagree with if you have the urge, but reasonable nonetheless.
I was unaware that Jones only had 5 homers last year. That's sad.
What do you think about Felix Pie playing and getting 500 PAs? Do you think he is ready? I keep hearing about Pie's upside, but we haven't seen it yet at the major league level. What do you have him projected to do?
You other Cubs fans, whatdoyouthink about Pie in 2008?
Thanks
He'll play great defense and bat from the left side of the plate. Everything else is up in the air.
I'm not nearly as high on Pie as most Cubs fans. I don't like his plate discipline, but recognize he's put up better minor league numbers than Patterson. If it's a roto question, I think he'll play enough to steal a few bases and if he doesn't hit, Lou has demonstrated a knack for not playing flailers. Of course, without Jones -- I don't see a plan B (I see Pagan as more of a plan C).
Better dump him a day early than a day late. Let him leave with his dignity before he becomes the Latroy Hawkins of the Cubs outfield.
Don't take this the wrong way, but I think at this point, he's a poor man's Corey Patterson.
Excellent defense, which is going to be virtually all of his value in 2008. Fast, some pop. If the Cubs get viable offensive options at RF and SS, so they can afford to just plug Pie in the #8 hole and not worry about his offense, I think he'll be fine. He'll steal some bases, show some decent extra-base power and hopefully, like #33 suggests, figure out how to at least be non-embarassing against major-league pitching.
The risk is if the Cubs' 2008 plans rest on getting any kind of significant offensive contributions from Pie or if they try to plug him into the top of the order. I'm pretty hopeful, though, that Lou can resist the "fast centerfielder, let's lead him off" temptation.
I found this "spill my coffee" funny. That's all I have....
Pie's brief major league stay showed a non-horrible walk rate, a very high K rate and a paltry .284 BABIP. I think Pie projects to be a high BABIP hitter (though with high Ks) because he would be one of the dozen or so fastest players in MLB and has shown good power in the minors. I'm very interested in his projections for this year.
----------------------
B James HB has Pie at .283/.333/.456 for 2008.
Of course, for 2007 they had Pie at .287/.337/.480
If he were to hit that projection, he'd be a very good CF when you add in defense.
That's interesting given that a) he outhit Patterson at every level and b) Patterson is about as bad now as he was in 2002 as he was just breaking in.
You must really hate Pie.
No, I'm saying he's better than Patterson, and that Patterson is back at the offensive level he was at in 2002, which was his first full season in the majors.
Of course, I am counting on the Cubs impeccable record of player development to derail that future in Chicago and send him elsewhere. But should monkeys fly out of Hendry's *ss signalling a new dawn in Wrigleyville then perhaps Cubs fans can enjoy seeing a homegrown player succeed in The Friendly Confines.
That is useful for a 24 year old CFer.
One thing about Monroe, he seems to see the ball pretty well in the Metrodome. I think he'll recognize that the best opportunity for him just fell in his lap, take the $2.5M a year deal and produce at the projected rate, albeit in the pessimistic PA, while providing their best defensive option in LF. The worst case scenario would be if he platoons all season in CF with Tyner. Ugh.
With Geovany Soto in the mix it could be two position players in one year. Will wonders never cease?
I like Pie's game quite a bit. I think the lad has a clue and if given regular playing time will struggle at first but after a few months be a solid contributor on his way to having a chance to be a real plus player.
I think there will certainly be some MLB adjustment issues. The kid has been highly successful in the minors just swinging at everything. The Corey Patterson comparisons are myriad and obvious but I don't think people would be predicting doom and gloom if Patterson had been a Mariner flameout rather than a Cub disappointment. Corey also had issues with management and once declared he was going to ignore all hitting advice - that doesn't sound like someone willing to listen and learn.
I see no reason to ascribe personality issues to Pie or assume that he can't learn and improve faster than another former Cub.
NL CF hit .273/.336/.426 in 2007, which would mean he'd be really close to league average. That plus excellent defense would make him a good CF.
I think Pie's going to be good if they handle him right, and I have a lot more confidence that that'll happen under Lou than it would've under Baker.
Watching his play in September, I'm not sure Craig Monroe did either.
I screwed up on cutting and pasting th quote I was responding to
It probably wasn't clear, but I was talking strictly about next season. I was comparing 2008 Pie to the Cubs' version of Corey Patterson (2003-04). I think <u>right now</u> Pie is similar to Patterson. Pie is also much younger than Patterson and Patterson hasn't really improved any, so I expect 28-year-old Pie to be a good bit better than 28-year-old Patterson. But 28-year-old Pie won't be playing for the 2008 Cubs (hopefully he'll be playing for the 2012 Cubs).
Seeing others' projections, though, I'm probably under-rating him. If he can translate what he did this year in Iowa to next year in Chicago, he's got a shot to be pretty good with his defense.
Hrm...maybe they can sign ARod, move him to left field and move Soriano to right field. That would make sense in the perverse way that some of the Cubs' other decisions have made sense.
Edit: Pie won't be 28 until 2014.
To me it looks like they're trying to get a platoon partner for Murton who is better than Jones.
It probably wasn't clear, but I was talking strictly about next season. I was comparing 2008 Pie to the Cubs' version of Corey Patterson (2003-04).
If that's what you're talking about, you'd be sort of correct. Pie's projection looks to be about Patterson v.2004.
Edit: Pie won't be 28 until 2014.
Dan's never believing a Dominican Republic birth certifican again!
I think that's about right.
I've seen that the Cubs sent $2M to the Tigers. Infante got $1.3M last year and will likely get a raise in arbitration to around $2M. As you mentioned, Monroe is a non-factor in payroll savings, since non-tendering him saves whatever money he might have been owed. So really, the Cubs are going to be paying $4M to have just Infante instead of paying $5M for just Jones, which is nowhere near $10M in savings.
ESPN 1000's Bruce Levine suggested yesterday that the Cubs were preparing an offer for Carl Crawford. However, team officials told Roger Mooney today that there's nothing brewing. Apparently the rumor was Rich Hill, Eric Patterson, and a prospect for Crawford. That doesn't seem sufficient anyway. There was even some talk of a three-way deal (I hadn't heard this) involving the Brewers and Yankees. Sounds like none of it is legit.
In other words, PECOTA was over the moon for Pie last year (ranked him as the #8 prospect in MLB), and I can't imagine this past season did too much to dampen its enthusiasm. The guy needs to be left alone in CF in Wrigley this year, even if it takes a while for his prodigious skills to blossom into performance.
You sir, are a racist.
You simply can't expect much for a player like that.
Now whether Infante was the right player to get -- that's a good bit harder to defend. Heck, given the Cubs sending along $2 M, it's not clear to me he's a better fit than Jones. But if Infante can play a decent SS, then he does make a nice insurance policy for Theriot/Cedeno -- though obviously at least one in the Theriot/Cedeno/Infante/Fontenot mix won't be on the roster. (OK, this is Hendry, they could all be on the roster and, heck, we could have DeRosa in RF too. :-) If he can't play a decent SS, then he's not of use.
Still, this trade is unlikely to affect the Cubs' 2008 chances one way or the other.
He's not a racist, he just believes in Players' Rights and he doesn't care if the good people at the Neshoba County Fair know it.
I'm not sure, Crawford's OPS+ the last 4 years 105, 111, 113, 117, he'll be 26, I don't really see him getting much higher, he's a good player to be sure, but his K/BB isn't budging, his improvement has been largely in power. His offensive upside may be Garrett Anderson's prime with speed.
Hill is an above average SP, TB's 3, 4, 5.... SPs had ERA+s of 78, 77, 74, 60, 56
Getting Patterson will allow TB to move Upton to the OF (CF?)
Patterson will improve TB's wretched infield defense
Depending upon who the other prospect is this could be a very good deal for TB, if nothing else it woudl help them align their talent into a functional team
Upton's already been moved.
Also, while their starters not named Kazmir and Shields were bad, they also have lots of good pitching propects: Price, Davis, McGee, and to lesser extents Niemann, Sonnanstine.
Absolutely awesome.
You sir, are a racist.
I was going to respond with some wallet thievin' comment, but I see someone beat me to it as I scroll to the posting screen. That's what I get for doing actual work during the work day. Dammit.
Come on, that's pretty damn funny.
This has to be some kind of joke, because the alternative is too depressing to contemplate.
Just what is it with Hendry??????
Are you counting Soriano? ;)
I was willing to go along with that until I learned the Cubs were also pursuing Luis Castillo.
It's gotta be Punto. The stars are aligning!
Why would the Twins trade their best player for Craig Monroe?
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