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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Cubs - Signed Lilly

Chicago Cubs - Signed P Ted Lilly to a 4-year contract.

This is only $40 million.  I’m surprised Lilly got this contract while Gil Meche and Vicente Padilla get contracts for more dough a year, and in Meche’s case, more years.  It looks like the Cubs are going to take the correct mindsight with their rotation - go into the season with a Zambrano/Lilly/Hill 1-3 in the rotation and if they get anything from Mark Prior or Wade Miller, to consider themselves lucky.

2007 ZiPS Projection -  Ted Lilly
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 12 12 30 30 169 155   80 23 79 148 4.26
2008     11 12 29 29 162 151   80 23 75 136 4.44
2009     10 12 27 27 153 144   78 23 71 125 4.59
2010     9 12 25 25 142 138   77 23 67 111 4.88
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 16 10 33 33 191 161   73 19 80 172 3.44
Pes. (15%)  7 13 25 25 137 136   80 24 71 118 5.26
———————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:47 PM | 9 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. TH Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:15 PM (#2254663)
What is better a 4.90 ERA in Kaufman or a 4.26 in Wrigley? I imagine it's actually pretty close when you factor in the DH/AL-NL thing.
   2. Ienpw Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:55 PM (#2254715)
Lilly's a flyball pitcher so him in Wrigley could suck when the wind is blowing out. He's essentially Rich Hill lite.
   3. Jim Wisinski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:57 PM (#2254717)
The other day Nate Silver posted Lilly's PECOTA ERA for several teams for next season:

Blue Jays: 4.90
Yankees: 4.65
Cubs: 4.36
Giants: 4.08
   4. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:18 PM (#2254741)
Supposedly, Lilly left about $4M on the table to go to the Cubs.
   5. MSI Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:20 PM (#2254743)
I've seen Lilly for years. Wrigely and Rogers Centre are both homerun parks....but he's moving to the NL, so his homerun rates will drop form an average of 28 homers a year, to less than that. K's will go up and walks down. Lilly has good stuff; I think his optimistic projection is exact: He'll be a 16 game winner with a sub 4 ERA.
   6. Rear Admiral Piazza Posted: December 07, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2254750)
I have pictures of Lilly. fapfapfapfapfap
   7. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:08 PM (#2254795)
It looks like the Cubs are going to take the correct mindsight with their rotation - go into the season with a Zambrano/Lilly/Hill 1-3 in the rotation and if they get anything from Mark Prior or Wade Miller, to consider themselves lucky.

Perhaps. The Cubs have been rumored to still be interested in another starter (Jennings, Bautista, and Marquis are the only guys left). I think about 200IP of averagish pitching from Prior/Miller is somewhat reasonable, but still optimistic. They could work their way through Guzman/Marshall/Marmol/Mateo for one of the spots, but I don't think that fits with the new goal of winning the WS next season. In other words, none of them impressed enough last year to really get much of a shot this season. We'll see. I think they're hoping to fill one of those spots with Prior/Miller/kids. It's probably going to be a good enough rotation as long as Marquis isn't that last guy they sign.
   8. Spahn Insane Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:34 PM (#2254819)
Did Suppan sign? Jennings isn't a FA.
   9. Moses Taylor, Moses Taylor Posted: December 07, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2254827)
Did Suppan sign? Jennings isn't a FA.

No, but I haven't seen the Cubs linked to him anywhere. And I know they'd have to trade (presumably a lot) to get Jennings, but there have been multiple reports linking the Cubs to him. I also didn't include Zito, who the Cubs also appear to be steering clear of.

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