This is an amazing deal if the DRAYs are putting him at 2nd. Compare his projection to the projections of 2b that got similar contracts such as Derosa and Kennedy.

Iwamura has an excellent defensive rep at 3rd so the deal is quite good even if he is playing 3rd; I haven't heard any complaints about his defense at 2nd on the occasions that he has played 2b.

ESPN's got Iwamura already penciled in as starter at 2B on the D-Rays depth chart, with Cantu at 1st - a nice spot for him if he reverts to form with the bat. If Zobrist gets anywhere near his minor league OBP (.434 career, with 60 more walks than Ks in just 3 years), then the TB offense could really surpise. It's the pitching, as usual, that will torpedo their season. Kazmir is good enough (he'd be an ace if he pitched more than his 144 innings last year), with Shields a good #3 or #4. That's about all they got. Too bad they need five guys in the rotation.

Cantu at 1st - a nice spot for him if he reverts to form with the bat.

I don't know--even if Cantu hits like he did in 2005, he'd still be a below-average first baseman. Of course, I guess if you're the Devil Rays, you can't complain too much about "below-average."

Especially at first base - Ah, for the old days of Fred McGriff manning the corner in bug-eye green.

As the roster stands at the moment Cantu would go into the 1B/DH mix along with Gomes and Dukes and also get time as the backup 2B. A trade would be a better solution though if they can get decent value in return, it's selling low but I don't see him as having a future with the Rays anyway.

As for the pitching, JP Howell is likely to make the rotation as well. He finally regained his arm strength in his last start of the season, throwing 87-88 again, and looks to be a decent starter if he maintains that. Jason Hammel finished strong at Durham but only had flashes of success in the majors so he will probably go back down to start the season. Niemann's health is the question as always but if there's nothing wrong with him at the time he may break camp with the team. Mitch Talbot and Andy Sonnanstine will start the year in Durham but both aren't far from contributing (Talbot especially, I expect Sonnanstine to need adjustment time at AAA like he did at AA in 2006). Jae Seo seems to be guaranteed a rotation spot, which I don't agree with, but that's not a big deal and his potential usefulness isn't 100% toast yet.

There's a lot of depth to work from with the starting pitching right now, it's a matter of seeing who continues to have success (and stay healthy) and figuring out from there who gives them the best five in the rotation.

Kazmir has a very good chance to be a legitimate ace. The guy struck out 163 in 144 innings last season, while reducing his walk-rate for the third consecutive year, down to 3.24 walks per nine (and he's just 22). The Rays (rightly) shut him down at the mere SUGGESTION of any arm problems---they had nothing to gain by letting him pitch, and everything to lose.

While the staff is certainly not in *good* shape, things are not as bad as many people might realize. Niemann's health is always a concern too, but he managed to put up very stellar numbers at AA. Howell, Seo, Hammel, and Shields are all credible #4/5 starters. Obviously an ace and four 4/5s does not a good rotation make, but the pieces are coming into place.

Additionally, as was mentioned above, Sonnanstine and Talbot aren't far from contributing, and there are many other quality arms in the low minors.

I would be shocked if Rocco Baldelli isn't dealt for at least two pitchers, one of whom is ML-ready and a viable #3 starter. This team is not as far away from 75-85 wins as some might think.

Iwamura will be a very good player at 2B based on those numbers. I wonder about the strikeouts though. Does ZIPS typically project such a nice AVG with so many strikouts and so few BBs?

Fake Teams

Since Iguchi and KazMat (too bad he wasn't named Hazuo) being the only recent NPB>MLB infielders with significant playing time, I distrust the reports since KM was considered a good SS there by reports and not even an above average 2b here.

I wonder about the strikeouts though. Does ZIPS typically project such a nice AVG with so many strikouts and so few BBs?

That's a good point ... taking out HRs and BB, that comes out as a .366 BABIP. I'd also say it's odd to see a player with HRs as half of his XBH except for real sluggers like Mark McGwire and Ryan Howard. Perhaps something's lost in translation.

As the roster stands at the moment Cantu would go into the 1B/DH mix along with Gomes and Dukes and also get time as the backup 2B.

Hee Sop Choic could be in that mix as well.

On-topic: here's his splits.
Off-topic: Reds get Conine for Javon Moran and Brad Key, DFA Brendan Harris.

That may have been hard to read/navigate.
vL: 63-178 .354, 11 hr, 26 rbi, 15 w, 42 k
vR: 107-368 .291, 21 hr, 51 rbi, 55 w, 86 k

I find the projection a little optimistic (in part because he strikes out so much), but not hugely so: .270/.335/.425, make some of the homers into doubles.

i had him as .288/.343/.438 in a neutral park and league (but with a really high BABIP that I should have regressed). i'd be surprised if he matches dan's projection, but anything's possible.