How is Dennis Eckersley a Top Comp for a guy with a 101 ERA+? Are we expecting Shields to start boozing?

Start?

Like the Eck, he can either start or finish a bottle.

How is Dennis Eckersley a Top Comp for a guy with a 101 ERA+?

That includes defense, though the Rays should improve more than typical with their changes. Eck's peripherals weren't as good as his ERA in those days, too.

Even before his strong 2007, PECOTA's number one comp for Shields was Dan Haren. That makes sense to me, particularly after he arrived in '07. Right hander with good overall stuff, strength is an offspeed pitch (I believe ... straight change for Shields, forkball for Haren?) that leads to a reverse split, good K/BB, a few too many gopher balls to be a #1 guy.

Hmmm...so I did a quick and dirty (the only kind I know how to do) calculation on defense and saw that Eckersley's DERA on BB-Pro (ages 20-25) was about 2% better than his NRA during those years. Does that mean his peripherals were actually a bit better than his ERA?

By contrast Shields DERA was 6% better than NRA, so his defense really sucked.

Dan, it's $12 million for the first four years, not three.

Year ERA+ FIP+ xERA+
-----------------------------
1976 101 105 125
1977 112 98 119
1978 139 96 109
1979 150 104 120
1980 99 98 112

Thanks for the catch.

Even when these deals work out badly, when talking about the money involved, they're still not very damaging to the bottom line. Take the Eric Hinske. He was signed to a 5-year, $14.75 million contract before his sophomore season. He was disappointing offensively, injured, and his defense got worse. But he still ended up about 5 wins better than replacement level over the course of his contract.

Fair enough, but I think this downplays the cost. The cost is that they could have had a look at those first two years for "free." At the end of that time, they'd have realized he wasn't the player he appeared in 2002 and either would have let him go or would have gotten those other 3 years for substantially less money. At at the end of those 2 years, they'd probably gotten most of those 5 wins out of him at essentially no cost. Anyway, it was probably something close to $10 M flushed down the drain.

But reminding us of the Hinske signing sure makes the Tulo extension look better. 5 seasons later, with MLB revenues nearly doubled (?), you can buyout Tulo's arb years for about the same price as Eric Hinske's. What's not to like.

As to this signing ... does anyone know if he was going to be a super-2? Or the structure of the deal?

Assuming no super-2 status, this means they're buying out his first two arb years at about $11 M. That seems high given pitcher risk. If he was going to be super-2, then they're getting his first 3 arb years at about $11.5 M and that seems like a reasonable price.

Either way, they are getting options on his last arb year and first 2 FA years for $26-28 M (there are incentives apparently). That looks like a very nice deal right there. Even an average starter might well be expected to earn something in the $35-40 M range by that time.

So good upside on this deal for the Rays and with only $12 M guaranteed, not a major downside. Obviously if Shields flames out, they've flushed $12 M, but short of that, hard to see how they could lose more than maybe $6 M on this one.

Makes me wonder if there are some details we're not aware of yet -- like an opt-out clause or some other major escalator. Three option years on a contract is almost unheard of and there's no obvious reason Shields should have given them that. At the least, I would expect those options to be reasonably easily vested ones and/or ones the Rays have to decide to exercise very soon.

Dan, thanks for #8. I'm amazed FIP and DERA can lead to such different conclusions.

Maybe I'm imagining things, but why do the Royals have to spend $36 million to get a T.O.? They just signed Brett Tomko. I don't like the deal, but I'd like to see the projections.

Aren't multiple option years something the Rays have done a lot? If I recall, Crawford and Baldelli both hae multiple option years on their contract. And as you mentioned, they have to be triggered sooner than a regular option. For example, I believe Baldelli's option for 2009 has to be exercised before Opening Day this year.

What Dan said.

The other point is that in the not-insignificant chance that Shields turns out to be an above-average starter through his pre-arb years, the club has themselves a bargain during the option years.

This contract approach leads to long-term competitiveness. We'll see if they do the same thing with whomever of Sonnanstine, Niemann, McGee, Davis and Price emerges as a solid major league starter. I am guessing that they will try.

If the Rays decline the option on the last 2 seasons, would they be eligible for FA Compensation?

Holy long contract, Batman!

Top Comps: Dennis Eckersley

Ladies and gentlemen, your NESN studio analyst for 2023 - James Shields.