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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Diamondbacks - Acquired Rauch

Arizona Diamondbacks - Acquired P Jon Rauch from the Washington Municipals for 2B Emilio Bonifacio.

Rauch, like Big Unit before him, has finally found his niche the last few years, and is now known as a good pitcher before being known as “that really tall guy.”  Bowden’s flipping Rauch now, but he would still have netted a bigger return if he had flipped Chad Cordero before the season.  The Diamondback bullpen is better than generally believed and it would be even better if The Large Component was a lefty, but any improvement helps in such a lousy division, a division which arguably 11 of 14 AL teams could be leading right now.

It’s encouraging for a Hall of Famer to appear on Bonifacio’s comp list, but Red Schoendienst isn’t the guy that you really want to show up there.  He’s not even really a good comp as ZiPS had a lot of problems finding comps, with slapping swifties generally being low strikeout guys when they’re low walk guys.  Bonifacio simply doesn’t put enough balls in play to be a usable offensive player in this day and age.  He does have a great pope name, the best since Calixtus Antonine “Mike” Pagliarulo.

OK, I made that last one up.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Jon Rauch
          W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
Year-to-Date   4   2 48   0   48.1   42   16   5   7 44 2.98  
Rest-of-Yr?  2   2 29   0   30.0   29   13   4   8 25 3.90
Total       6   4 77   0   78.1   71   29   9 15 69 3.33
2009?      6   5 85   0   85.0   84   39 12 25 69 4.13
Top Comps:  Rod Beck, Bryn Smith


2008 ZiPS Projection - Emilio Bonifacio
Period       AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
Year-to-Date* 371 36   99 15 2   1 23 20 53 15 .267 .304 .326
Rest-of-Yr?  221 24   54   9 1   1 16 11 43 12 .244 .283 .308
* - Includes Minor League Translation      
2009?      593 68 155 22 2   2 48 37 106 29 .261 .308 .315
Top Comps:  Red Schoendienst, Anderson Hernandez


Dan Szymborski Posted: July 23, 2008 at 06:23 PM | 17 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. PS is probably something something Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:35 PM (#2869750)
He should comp well to Herb Washington... that one's been passing around a bit.
   2. flournoy Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:38 PM (#2869751)
I hadn't realized until just now that Randy Johnson and Jon Rauch are on the same team. That should help their average height, if nothing else.
   3. PS is probably something something Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:41 PM (#2869754)
Still... get the team used to hitting balls that come from first base, then throw them a curve... start throwing them from third! Eh? Eh?
   4. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:44 PM (#2869759)
The Nats got a guy who compares well to a Hall of Famer. Not too shabby BODES!
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:49 PM (#2869767)
.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Brandon Lyon, at 6'1" and 195 lbs, is the shrimp of the pitching staff

Now the Dbacks need to somehow acquire the "other" Chris Young as well
   6. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:50 PM (#2869771)
Ah, for ####'s sake. Not the "email" option again. ####
Ok, here's again AZ 25 man roster
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2008 at 08:56 PM (#2869780)
I can't find the link right now, but I remember that a few years ago BA had Rauch as the #1 prospect in all of baseball. I assume he got hurt along the way and then re-discovered himself?
   8. JPWF13 Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:03 PM (#2869793)
No, they had him as high as four in 2001

nice list
1. Josh Hamilton, of, Devil Rays
2. Corey Patterson, of, Cubs (disappointing)
3. Josh Beckett, rhp, Marlins
4. Jon Rauch, rhp, White Sox
5. Ben Sheets, rhp, Brewers
6. Sean Burroughs, 3b, Padres (bust)
7. C.C. Sabathia, lhp, Indians
8. Ryan Anderson, lhp, Mariners (bust)
9. Ichiro Suzuki, of, Mariners
10. Nick Johnson, 1b, Yankees
11. Carlos Pena, 1b, Rangers
12. Vernon Wells, of, Blue Jays
13. Roy Oswalt, rhp, Astros
14. Drew Henson, 3b, Reds (bust)
15. Chin-Hui Tsao, rhp, Rockies (bust)
16. Antonio Perez, ss, Mariners (bust)
17. Juan Cruz, rhp, Cubs (???)
18. Alex Escobar, of, Mets (bust)
19. Jerome Williams, rhp, Giants (bust)
20. Bobby Bradley, rhp, Pirates (bust)
   9. JPWF13 Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:07 PM (#2869800)
I noticed that Patterson was listed at #2 in ALL of baseball after hitting .261/.329/.491 in AA... really gotta wonder what they were thinking...
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:20 PM (#2869823)
Actually, Rauch was the Baseball America Minor League Player of the Year in 2000


Of course, that's not the same as the top prospect in baseball
That 2001 list has a lot of talent... and surprising number of busts
I'd say Juan Cruz ended up having a decent career
   11. flournoy Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:22 PM (#2869829)
That looks like a nice list though 13, but just as important as the busts are the guys who were left off the list entirely. The Cardinals had this guy come up in 2001 who hit pretty well.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:25 PM (#2869838)
11: stop complaining. they did have ludwick at 81
   13. flournoy Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:37 PM (#2869855)
What am I complaining about?
   14. Newtype Posted: July 23, 2008 at 09:59 PM (#2869886)
Pujols was #42 on the list.
   15. JPWF13 Posted: July 23, 2008 at 10:31 PM (#2869947)
Pujols had just hit .324/.383/.565 in the Midwest league, pretty good you say? What if I tell you the LEAGUE average was .250/.327/.365?

everyone got all excited when Brandon Wood at the same age hit .321/.383/.672 in the California League - but that was against a league average of .286/.357/.452 (and Wood K'd 128 times against 48 walks- Pujols had K'd just 37 times against 38 walks)

After that year BA ranked Wood #3 in all of baseball.

In fact if you neutralize their numbers to a .260/.300/.405 context you get
Wood: .292/.354/.602

then when you consider that low K batters translate relatively better than hi-K batters...

Pujol's ability to slug like that while having such a high contact rate should have been a bright shining flashy neon sign...

Ok I looked at everyone in 2007, over 200 PAs, and slugged 20% over league, and ranked by K/PA...
result a bunch of AAAA types way too old for their leagues

Ok I limited it to everyone in A ball, 21 and under:

Hi A:
   16. We don't have dahlians at the Palace of Wisdom Posted: July 23, 2008 at 10:33 PM (#2869949)
Pujols was #42 on the list.

I'm pretty sure he's talking about Bill Ortega.
   17. J. Lowenstein Apathy Club Posted: July 24, 2008 at 12:10 AM (#2870188)
Re Pags : if only.

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