Diamondbacks/Brewers - Swap Davis, Eveland, Estrada, others
Milwaukee Brewers - Acquired C Johnny Estrada, P Claudio Vargas and P Greg Aquino from the Arizona Diamondbacks for P Doug Davis, P Dana Eveland, and OF Dave Krynzel.
This is kind of a ‘meh’ trade for the Brewers. Estrada’s the worthwhile player to pick up, but by my ken, the 2001 season spent backing up Mike Lieberthal is enough to push him slightly over 4 years of service time, which gives the Brewers a league-average catcher for one year past Damian Miller’s departure after 2007. For 2007, he’s redundant. Chris Snyder and Miguel Montero will cover catcher as well as Estrada could, with Montero being the catcher of the future, of course. Doug Davis is not a top-of-the-rotation starter and Dana Eveland is more of Brad Halsey-ish prospect, but I don’t like trading that depth - Vargas and Aquino don’t strike me as anywhere near as valuable. Given what things cost in today’s free agent market, replacing a solid, dependable 4th starter is not a cheap exercise and the Brewers haven’t developed minor league pitchers they way they’ve developed hitters.
For the Diamondbacks, I think this is a pretty nice trade. They’re giving up a catcher they don’t need to upgrade on Vargas and a flier on Eveland. Rotation depth is a problem for the team and having these two players is a nice bonus.
I didn’t forget Dave Krynzel. For a number of years, the Brewers liked to pretend he was a prospect because of his defense in center. Tony Gwynn Jr. fits Krynzel’s role very well - he’s very good defensively, the Brewers like to pretend he’s a prospect, and he’ll always be “one year away!” because he’s not a good enough player to start in center. Moving to Arizona will boost his BA and HR total just enough that he looks almost good enough to be a fifth outfielder, but he’ll still be about the 30th best Diamondback prospect in the outfield.
2007 ZiPS Projections
———————————————————————————————————
Player AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Estrada 401 40 111 27 0 8 49 22 49 0 .277 .323 .404
Krynzel 398 58 97 20 4 8 35 34 104 15 .244 .306 .374
2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Aquino 2 2 49 0 56 52 31 7 28 53 4.98
Davis 11 11 34 34 210 208 106 23 86 149 4.54
Eveland 7 8 36 22 142 140 72 14 62 104 4.56
Vargas 8 11 32 28 154 159 86 26 53 122 5.03
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 26, 2006 at 01:31 AM |
55 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
1. William K. Posted: November 26, 2006 at 03:27 AM (#2245815)Johnny Boy's projection seems about right. Only 9 of those 22 walks will be unintentional.
Well dammit Dan, why didn't you tell the Brewers that before they made the trade?
They didn't ask me. I would've happily supplied them projection in return for a sack of money with a dollar sign on it.
http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=535160
Would you have done it for a copy of Bandwagonesque?
The knock on Eveland is his body type (6 foot, almost 250 pounds), and doesn't take to conditioning the way the Brewers hoped. But his stuff is there (unlike Halsey) and his peripherals are very impressive. I don't know how you can knock him as a brad halseyish prospect as he is lefty groundball pitcher (similarities end there), will only be 23 years old in the upcoming season, and has shown the ability to miss bats on all levels (while keeping his HR rate down, and his BB rate mediocre/acceptable). Halsey never at any level had a K/9 rate that hit 1. Eveland is the real gem in this deal - not Davis, not Krynzel, not Estrada. While the Brewers hyped up Krynzel, they did the opposite with Eveland, and they've been frustrated with his spring training outings and his inability to stick to a conditioning program (although he displayed a better job this season between starts). Last offseason he couldn't really get on track because of a knee injury, but ended up having a good season - don't be so quick to dismiss Eveland as just the third/fourth best prospect in the Brewers system - it's deep, and he's got all the tools and peripherals to become either a #2/#3 starter.
I remember Eveland starting against the Mets this year and I don't think he touched even 90 MPH in that start. I might be misremembering but I doubt a lefty with the stuff you are describing and Eveland's track record would get traded for so little. He'd be one of the top prospects in baseball.
If you were a straight stats guy, you'd make that trade. I wouldn't though. Perez's upside is undeniable and he made strides as the season progressed.
There's a 99.9% chance this comment leads to a skirmish between Levski and Base.
Fixed.
Okay - Eveland mainly works 88-90, and like I said, with the ability to hit 93-94. He often puts on/takes off mph on his fastball with his command. About you not seeing him hit 90 mph on the scoreboard gun in one start - it's one gun, and one start.
This is a bit of a ridiculous statement. Remember Scott Kazmir a few years ago?
Again, being 6 feet tall and weighing around 260 pounds doesn't make scouts gleam with happiness. They'll always say very few with his body type have succeeded at the major league level (David Wells being a rare exception, maybe Dennis Reyes too), so it's hard to project him. But Eveland still has good upside, and has proven himself at every minor league level. He has the ability to be a productive, above-average pitcher if given a fair shot. He's a big part of this trade, I'm sure, although no one is talking about him like he is.
I don't know what this means. Are you saying that Kazmir wasn't one of the top prospects in baseball a few years ago?
I'm not saying Eveland doesn't have a chance to be a good pitcher. There are a lot of finesse lefthander who have had great careers. All I'm saying is that Eveland doesn't have electric stuff.
That's so nice. At least Jesus loves you.
http://suttonplace.mlblogs.com/
I particularly like his "player A, player B" comparison.
Sorry about that, it was definitely not nice. But sometimes your repetitive skirmishes with that other guy just ruin a thread for me. Just take whatever you want from it. Peace.
Fixed.
I take it personally. You're an as$hole.
Eveland is a good prospect, but Kryzel is a zero (while Aquino is not), and Estrada is a big upgrade on what the Brewers have at catcher. Out of the last four seasons, Estrada has two seasons with a .280+ Eqa. Over the last four seasons, neither Miller or Rivera have one of .270+, and Mueller is 37.
The Brewers got a catcher, and traded Davis without creating a hole in the rotation.
Advantage: Brewers.
Sorry, my bad.
It's like the ending to "Blazing Saddles."
The world must be coming to an end :)
For clarification, I was referring to this comment: "I might be misremembering but I doubt a lefty with the stuff you are describing and Eveland's track record would get traded for so little. " There's no reason to believe that GMs won't trade pitchers with good stuff for very little - what an arbitrary GM receives in return shouldn't be basis behind evaluating a pitcher's stuff.
That's fair - I'm just surprised how little attention he gets in the trade because he wasn't touted as one of the Brewers' top prospects based on his weight at the beginning of the year. I'm beating a dead horse, but his peripherals are outstanding, has four pitches, two of them that are plus pitches.
Estrada's OPS drops from .773 in Chase to .727 in Miller Park. Nearly a 50 point drop in OPS due to the change in home park? Wow!
Montero is projected at .758 and Snyder is projected at .717 I believe Snyder does better than that, but that is a faith based statement. Still, the changes made to his swing this past year, (shortening up) while not giving up anything in his approach, which is to take pitches and look for one to hit, seems sustainable to me. The fans don't like the called looking K's.....justifiably so in some instances....but he is a good "over" bet on the OPS. Montero on the other hand looks like an "under" bet to me. He's half a season away offensively.
Piss on you, I work for Repoz!
Personally, were I the Crew - I would have waited until Zito signed for whatever 5-6-7/80-90-100-120 deal he got, then watched the price tag for Davis skyrocket.
This trade just seemed like neither team was even trying... It was no secret the D-Backs were looking to deal Estrada, and the Brewers have had Davis on the market for a while as well.
It's as if both teams just sort of said, "To hell with it" - and made the deal just to move their chits.
I agree that the D-Backs came out on top - but I think both teams would have been better off waiting a bit and watching the market continue to blow up - especially the Brewers.
The Eveland thing I just do not understand. On his good days he threw 93, worked inside, and was efficient. That Melvin/Yost gave him about five seconds to show what he could do and decided to h*ll with it is not a good sign. I can somewhat understand finally surrendering on De La Rosa in that the team DID try and let him find a groove which never happened. But Eveland is a year removed from Double A for Crissakes. And NOBODY in 2006 threw the ball worth a tinker's d*mn. Why ship the 23 year old out of town?
Sigh......
When I saw Davis' ZiPS line, I didn't believe it. I thought his HR and ERA would be higher. Perhaps I'm misusing the numbers, but perhaps the NL West might actually treat Davis OK, in terms of HR. Again, if I'm misrepresenting the numbers, I stand corrected in advance. In that case, it'd be great if someone would show me what I did wrong.
Anyway, according to Dan's numbers, the BOB inflates HRs by 14%, if I'm reading that right. For the rest of the NL West...
Dodger Stadium: +12%
Colorado: +24%
House o' Giants: -14%
Petco: -24%
Now the NL Central parks:
MIL: +8%
CIN: +16%
PIT: -12%
CHI: +4%
HOU: +16%
STL: ??? (not in Dan's PFs, BRef has it at 98 for pitchers)
I know that his new home park may be more treacherous than Miller, but the NL West road parks seem like they even out, assuming a roughly equal number of starts in each. Of course, if most of his NL West road starts are at LA and COL, then he could end up looking bad.
Just getting him out of the same division as Cincy and Houston may help him a lot. He's given up 10 bombs to the Reds and 9 to the Astros, including a solo jack to Randy Johnson!
ARI - 1.11
COL - 1.09
LA - 1.08
SD - 0.94
SF - 0.89
CHN - 1.07
CIN - 1.09
HOU - 1.08
MIL - 1.03
PIT - 0.93
STL - 0.95
Dan, all Melvin had to do was wait a week or two and you'd have posted the ZIPS projections through "M" -- you didn't have a lot of leverage. :-)
Target Bowden -- you won't be getting to the Nationals for like a month. :-)
Does anyone know what this trade does to the status of JD Closser besides making him #4 rank on the catching list of the Brewers. Can you turn around and trade a guy you just picked up on waiviers?
Sure, if you can find anyone interested in him.
At least that trade worked out better for AZ than the Mike Fetters for Duaner Sanchez fiasco...
So you're saying there's a chance!
The Brewers are paying Estrada and Vargas 5.9 million in 2007, and the D backs are paying Davis and Chris Snyder 5.9 million in 2007
Estrada 330 PA, 88 OPS+, Snyder 227 PA 87 OPS+
Vargas 107.7 IP, 101 ERA+, Davis 131.3 IP 111 ERA+
Aquino only has 7.7 IP in the majors this year, and Eveland has been hurt most of the year. Of course Krynzel was a non factor
Of course the Brewers got two major leaguers out of the trade so far, and the D backs just one, although Eveland could still turn into something at some point. But Snyder's defense is MUCH better than Estrada's, and so the net result for the D backs was an upgrade.
Vargas is 9-2, while Davis is 7-10, and Vargas has the better WHIP. But I guess the additional innings from Davis offset some of that. I do shudder to think of what kind of ZIPS Davis will have next year, considering his current WHIP is 1.645
Overall, I think this trade helped both clubs in the way they hoped it would. As of today, it's still a push, IMHO
I'm just really happy to be rid of Estrada.
Doug Davis, 174 1/3 IP, 3.98 ERA, 31.4 VORP, $5.5M
Dana Eveland, 4 IP, 18.00 ERA, -5.1 VORP, minimum
Vargas, 124 2/3 IP, 5.13 ERA, 6.7 VORP, $2.5m
Aquino, 8 IP, 5.62 ERA, -1.8 VORP, minimum?
And, of course, Suppan, 174 1/3 IP, 4.75 ERA, 14.8 VORP, $6m
Chris Snyder, 324 PA, 9.3 VORP, minimum
Miguel Montero, 220 PA, 1.4 VORP, minimum
Ponch, 425 PA, 8.6 VORP, $3.4m
Miller, 169 PA, -1.9 VORP, $2.25m
Pretty much all of the damage against Eveland was done in his recent start vs. COL (5 ER in 3IP or so) and the Dbacks ended up winning that game 13-7. Davis is signed for 2 more years, for 7.75m in 08 and 8.75m in 09; Suppan is signed for 3 more years, for $8m in 2008 and $12.5m in both 2009 and 2010--and the Brewers would have to give him $2m to buy out their $12.75m option for 2012. Vargas probably has no future in the Brewers rotation, and he doesn't have much trade value either. I won't be surprised if the Brewers just non-tender him this winter.
Snyder and Montero, for $800k combined, have outperformed the Brewers $5.65m catching tandem. I find it extremely satisfying to see Snyder outperform Ponch in VORP, despite getting 100 fewer plate appearances. And both Snyder and Montero will remain under control for several more years.
Eveland suffered a torn ligament in his thumb (I think) and missed over 3 months this season. At this point of time, he may be running out of chances to prove he can succeed in the majors, but the Dbacks will give him another shot next year. Even if he never pans out (just like Krynzel didn't pan out, when the Dbacks released him for some off-the-field reasons), I think the Dbacks did very well in this trade. Anything they can get out of Eveland will be a bonus.
I'm not betting on him to repeat this success in 2008.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main