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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Monday, July 31, 2006

Dodgers - Acquired Lugo

Los Angeles Dodgers - Acquired SS Julio Lugo from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for OF Joel Guzman.

Guzman’s been more hype than performance in the minors and has moved the wrong way on the defensive spectrum.  21 or not (Joel’s from the ever-sketchy Dominican Republic), a top prospect has to do a bit better than an .800 OPS in Las Vegas.  It’s hard to see where exactly Guzman fits in Tampa Bay - they have a ton of outfield prospects.  No doubt the Devil Rays will trade a few of them over the winter, especially because they all seem to either get in trouble or hate the organization.  Don’t get me wrong, Guzman could very well be an impact player, but he became overrated as a prospect, much like James Loney and Willy Aybar.  It would have made more sense to get some more pitching for Lugo, but it doesn’t look like Friedman n’ the Gang were able to snag that.  Lugo will test the free agent market unless the Dodgers blow him away with an offer the next two months, which I doubt.

Poor Rafael Furcal might now be the 3rd-best SS on the team.  Money talks, though, so Furcal will remain at short with Kent on the shelf with an oblique injury and Betemit will remain at third with Mueller on the shelf for possibly forever.  The Dodgers have improved themselves quite a bit the last few days, unlike the Hendrickson tread-water trade.  They’re still below .500, 5 games back, and more importantly, have to leapfrog 4 teams to win the division or 5 teams for the wild card (and they’re tied with the Brewers there, too).

These teams sure like to trade with each other.  This has been the best deadline in baseball for quite a few years.  Last year was especially horrible.

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 31, 2006 at 09:37 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. zonk Posted: July 31, 2006 at 11:35 PM (#2120566)
I know his stock has fallen.... but is Joel Guzman the biggest prospect to get moved this July?

Since I've said it in the other threads, why not say it here, too.... How in the hell did this July turn into such a buyer's market? With so many bad teams with the perfect type of deadline fodder (guys like Cormier, Walker, Wilson, etc seem like THE prototypical deadline acqusitions) - and so many teams thinking they're still in it, and even the solid contenders with some gaping holes - it just seems SOMEONE would have done something Kazmir-esque stupid, but I don't see anything out there that looks like it has half a chance to be anywhere near that rued.

In fact- if ANY trade comes back to really haunt a seller -- I'm not so sure it won't be the Nady for Perez-RoboHern deal. Perez is what, 23/24? I don't see anyone else in that age group with his upside.
   2. Fred Garvin is dead to Mug Posted: August 01, 2006 at 12:03 AM (#2120609)
From the Rays standpoint, Dan's take was basically the same as mine. The Rays already have a glut of OFs (Crawford, Baldelli, Young, Dukes) as well as guys they need to move from SS (Upton, Brignac). They also have Evan Longoria as a potential 3B and still have Jorge Cantu at 2B. What are they going to do with Guzman?

Yes, he can give insurance to Wes Bankston at 1B, but I don't imagine that this is maximizing his value. It just seems to me that this makes one more hitting prospect (Guzman or someone else) that the Rays will eventually need to deal for pitching.

The problem is that as time goes on, the market value of these guys all drop -- not only because of off-field/character problems, but because option years are running out as well.

All this is a very long way of saying that I wish the Rays could have gotten Billingsley instead of Guzman. Still, I guess it's better than getting more draft picks when Lugo walks.

I also wonder where Lugo will end up next year. Reports are that he turned down a multi-year offer from the Rays at over $8mm/yr -- thinking he can get $10mm on the open market. I'm not so sure of this, especially because Jim Hendry just picked up Cesar Izturis.
   3. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: August 01, 2006 at 12:10 AM (#2120618)
but is Joel Guzman the biggest prospect to get moved this July?

Nah, that's gotta be Shawn Chacon.

I don't really understand the point of this trade for the D-Rays. Given their glut of outfielders, I don't know if I wouldn't rather get draft picks for Lugo and go after a young arm (if none were available for trade, which I have a hard time seeing).

I also don't really see what the Dodgers plan to do with Lugo, unless they expect Kent and/or Garciaparra to miss significantly more time than is commonly thought.
   4. Mark Shirk (jsch) Posted: August 01, 2006 at 02:53 AM (#2120963)
I thought Guzman coudl be a 3B? I think they should keep him there until they have to move him, Longoria was just drafted after all.

Still, isn't this a good haul for two months of Lugo?

And on the Dodgers side I am not sure they had to do this deal. They already have Betemit to man 3B and Kent comes back in a few weeks. They are a longshot for the playoffs and may not even be able to resign Lugo, especially if Julio wants to play SS. Is that worth one of your better prospects? I don't think so.

I agree that Guzman may not be a perfect fit for the D-Rays and that his star has dimmed but in tems of what I mentioned above, I think they won this one.
   5. Los Angeles Waterloo of Black Hawk Posted: August 01, 2006 at 03:03 AM (#2120971)
Yeah, I don't get this from the other LA team's perspective. If Kent and Nomar both come back in a couple of weeks, you somehow have to find playing time for Nomar, Kent, Betemit, Furcal, Lugo, and possibly Loney (but probably not). It doesn't seem like they're thinking that far ahead.

Does Lugo have strong feelings about playing short vis-a-vis second? A big preference for short would give Chavez Ravine 0% chance of signing him to an extension.

I know Guzman isn't the perfect prospect, but I think a 21-year-old in AAA is more valuable than two months of Julio Lugo.
   6. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 01, 2006 at 04:29 AM (#2121081)
I don't know Black Hawk. I think Dodger management sees Guzman as a bust in the making. Lugo gives them two high draft picks which could possibly net a more valuble player, meanwhile Lugo provides at least some value. The Dodgers have a loaded system and many prospects are close to needing to be on the 40 to protect from the rule 5 draft. Hence some of them had to be traded.
   7. Walt Davis Posted: August 01, 2006 at 09:20 AM (#2121159)
The organization that seems dissatisfied with BJ Upton just picked up Joel Guzman?

From LA's perspective ... I'd guess that assuming Nomar and Kent will both come back quickly is a bit dicey, so this gives them depth. Also given how far back they are, they can't afford to wait 2 weeks to start making their move.
   8. NTNgod Posted: August 01, 2006 at 09:27 AM (#2121160)
but is Joel Guzman the biggest prospect to get moved this July?

Yup. It appears teams are catching on that trading prospects for rent-a-players isn't the best idea.
Most of the other deals involved fringe prospects or major leaguers.

I thought Guzman coudl be a 3B?

He's a growing boy... in both directions. 6-7, 250ish I believe.

1B-OF is most likely at this point.
   9. JPWF13 Posted: August 01, 2006 at 10:25 AM (#2121167)
but is Joel Guzman the biggest prospect to get moved this July?

Yup. It appears teams are catching on that trading prospects for rent-a-players isn't the best idea.
Most of the other deals involved fringe prospects or major leaguers.


Well, if some of the rumored trades turned down by Angelos and Bowden were really offerred...
such as- Did Bowden really turn down E. Santana & Aybar for Soriano???
   10. NTNgod Posted: August 01, 2006 at 10:29 AM (#2121168)
Well, Tejada is under contract for three more years, so he's not a rental.

Soriano? Who knows.

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