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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

Dodgers - Extended Penny

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed P Brad Penny to a 3-year contract extension.

It’s worth $32 million with the option year, so it’s a bit better for the Dodgers since they have an out option if Penny has injury problems or pitches like Ishii.  Aside from the injury issue, which the team believes is resolved, Penny’s the best of the Dodger pitchers long-term (the major league ones at least) and this sets 3/5 of the Dodgers rotation long-term.  Now the Dodgers just need a couple of their starting prospects to not get injured or disappoint in their 2nd years of AAA and they’ll be in business.

2005 ZiPS Projection - Brad Penny
—————————————————————————————-
Period     W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
—————————————————————————————-
Actual ‘05   3   2   9   9   56   60   23   5   8 29 3.67
Rest ‘05   7   4 17 17 102   96   41 10 25 70 3.62
—————————————————————————————-
Total ‘05   10   6 26 26 158 156   64 15 33 99 3.64
—————————————————————————————-
2006?    11   8 27 27 160 149   64 16 41 114 3.60
2007?    11   7 26 26 150 138   59 14 39 109 3.54
2008?    11   7 26 26 149 137   58 14 38 108 3.50
—————————————————————————————-

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: June 07, 2005 at 07:25 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. bibigon Posted: June 07, 2005 at 08:08 PM (#1388022)
Is Penny's low K rate so far this year something of a cause for concern?

By BPro's adjusted K rates, Penny was always had a K rate between 5 and 6, but now they've got him at 3.6.

That is something of a problem I would imagine for his long term future.
   2. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: June 07, 2005 at 11:58 PM (#1388522)
Is Penny's low K rate so far this year something of a cause for concern?

By BPro's adjusted K rates, Penny was always had a K rate between 5 and 6, but now they've got him at 3.6.

That is something of a problem I would imagine for his long term future.


A rate stat based on ~60 IP isn't enough to worry about yet. If its the same after 150 IP, then the Dodgers have something to worry about.
   3. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: June 08, 2005 at 10:51 AM (#1389473)
I don't like this deal at all. Penny has that low K rate and has very big injury question marks. For this you pay $26M over 3 years? The odds seem 50-50 that he will make it through the contract without missing significant time to injury.
   4. The definitely immoral Eric Enders Posted: June 08, 2005 at 02:12 PM (#1389609)
Then again, the same could be said of a lot of pitchers.

Penny's one serious DL stint was a truly freak injury; he doesn't have a pattern of arm problems.
   5. 1k5v3L Posted: June 08, 2005 at 03:32 PM (#1389774)
Well, it's not like DePo had a choice here. He's got 2 potential free agents (Weaver and Penny) and Perez is on the DL. He was going to have to overpay for at least 2 free agent pitchers in the offseason, so why not preemptively sign one of them at what he thinks may be a slight bargain? It's not like Edwin Jackson and Joel Hanrahan will be joining the rotation next year, if ever. Still, color me unimpressed here.
   6. Lester Posted: June 08, 2005 at 05:38 PM (#1390105)
Having just taken a look at the starting pitchers available as free agents next winter, I like this deal quite a bit. The alternatives: A.J. Burnett, Jeff Weaver, Chris Carpenter, Matt Morris, Kevin Brown, Jarrod Washburn, Kevin Millwood, Kenny Rogers, Esteban Loaiza.

The only guys I might want more than Penny are Burnett, Carpenter and Morris - but those guys look like greater injury risks than Pennny and are likely to sign for substantially north of Penny's deal (particularly Burnett).
   7. 1k5v3L Posted: June 08, 2005 at 06:18 PM (#1390236)
Carpenter isn't a free agent next year.
   8. DCA Posted: June 08, 2005 at 07:35 PM (#1390450)
I just looked at Edwin Jackson's AAA stats this year. Wow, what happened to that guy? 13 HR in 52 IP with as many BB's as K's? Ouch.
   9. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: June 13, 2005 at 06:55 AM (#1400897)
Sorry to bump a long dead thread, but I'd like to point out that "Extended Penny" is a great name for a band.
   10. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: June 13, 2005 at 10:30 AM (#1400940)
Sorry to bump a long dead thread, but I'd like to point out that "Extended Penny" is a great name for a band.

Extended Johnson, however, would be a great dick joke.

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