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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Dodgers - Re-signed Nomar

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed 1B Nomar Garciaparra to a 2-year contract worth $18.5 million.

Way to leverage those minor league assets, Ned.  In two days, along with the apparently-done-but-not-quite Pierre signing, the Dodgers have figured out how to spend nearly $20 million a year to block two of Betemit, Loney, and Kemp without any significant advantage.  The Dodgers are only another Hendrickson Trade or two from being where the 1996-1997 Orioles were - a good team looking over the edge of the abyss.  But if Dodger fans want to be all hooray when Nomar’s on the DL, Juan Pierre’s hitting 290/330/350 and cry some more about mean old Paul DePodesta trading away Clutchduca, more power to them.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Nomar Garciaparra
———————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Projection   399 84 115 26 2 14 68 35 31   2 .288 .352 .469
2008       378 60 108 23 2 13 64 35 32   8 .286 .356 .460
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  424 80 133 30 2 19 90 45 28   3 .314 .388 .528
Pes. (15%)  276 39   75 15 1   7 37 21 25   1 .272 .328 .409
———————————————————————————————————

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 21, 2006 at 05:36 PM | 8 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. The Piehole of David Wells Posted: November 21, 2006 at 06:16 PM (#2242980)
nomar must have been very happy when drew handed in his resignation. i wonder if they would have let nomar walk if drew had stayed.
   2. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: November 21, 2006 at 06:26 PM (#2242991)
Kemp plays more like a RF that a CF. His defense in CF would have been an adventure (although, considering his offense, he would have been very valuable there).

There was virtually no talk of Nomar returning until Drew opted out.
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 21, 2006 at 06:54 PM (#2243008)
I think this is probably a decent bargain in this market. It just makes absolutely no sense for the Dodgers. Is Loney's defense at 1B that bad? Is Nomar going to play 3B? Then why trade for Betimet? I'm not really sure I get what Coletti's strategy is this winter.
   4. Mike Emeigh Posted: November 21, 2006 at 07:23 PM (#2243025)
I think this is probably a decent bargain in this market. It just makes absolutely no sense for the Dodgers. Is Loney's defense at 1B that bad?


No, not really.

Loney had a great year, but he's just turning 23, and this is the first time he's been fully healthy in three years. I can understand a certain amount of prudence on the part of the Dodgers, and this deal puts them into a position where they don't have to *rely* on Loney to produce. It's usually a good thing to avoid putting a first-year player onto a contending team in a situation where he's *expected* to produce (and possibly be blamed for the team not contending should he not be productive). Loney's not a risk-free proposition.

Having said that, I don't see two years at 18.5 as being any bargain. Nomar's not likely to have any trade value with that deal should Loney indeed be ready to be a productive player over the next two years.

-- MWE
   5. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down Posted: November 21, 2006 at 07:41 PM (#2243031)
Kemp doesn't look ready at the beginning of the season. Long term the Dodgers certainly would want him in CF, and he has the speed and arm to play there, but he simply hasn't played much baseball in his life. I'd be willing to wait and see on him playing CF.

Loney's supposed to be spectacular defensively at 1B, but as he was a pitcher in HS, there's talk they want to take advantage of his arm and put him in RF. Which makes sense. With Kent and Nomar both significant injury risks, Betemit and Loney will get their PAs.

Betemit either needs to give up switch hitting or be platooned. A de facto Betemit/Saenz platoon with Nomar shuttling back and forth between 1B and 3B would make sense moreso than playing Saenz at 3B, but if the Dodgers think Nomar's too big of an injury risk I guess I can see the benefit of Saenz part-time at 3B. He was a great defender at 3B many moons ago.

With that, you'd have an infield of Betemit/Furcal/Kent/Nomar against RHP, Nomar/Furcal/Kent/Saenz against LHP, with Anderson and Martinez the principal IF reserves. With Ethier and Loney slotted at the corners, all you'd need is a placeholder at CF until Kemp is ready. Now, who could the Dodgers get for something like 5/45...
   6. "Andruw for HoF" sure died down Posted: November 21, 2006 at 07:42 PM (#2243034)
Kemp doesn't look ready at the beginning of the season. Long term the Dodgers certainly would want him in CF, and he has the speed and arm to play there, but he simply hasn't played much baseball in his life. I'd be willing to wait and see on him playing CF.

Loney's supposed to be spectacular defensively at 1B, but as he was a pitcher in HS, there's talk they want to take advantage of his arm and put him in RF. Which makes sense. With Kent and Nomar both significant injury risks, Betemit and Loney will get their PAs.

Betemit either needs to give up switch hitting or be platooned. A de facto Betemit/Saenz platoon with Nomar shuttling back and forth between 1B and 3B would make sense moreso than playing Saenz at 3B, but if the Dodgers think Nomar's too big of an injury risk I guess I can see the benefit of Saenz part-time at 3B. He was a great defender at 3B many moons ago.

With that, you'd have an infield of Betemit/Furcal/Kent/Nomar against RHP, Nomar/Furcal/Kent/Saenz against LHP, with Anderson and Martinez the principal IF reserves. With Ethier and Loney slotted at the corners, all you'd need is a placeholder at CF, or maybe even just a platoon partner for Repko, until Kemp is ready. So of course, the natural solution would be someone who could easily be shunted aside when Kemp's ready, someone like Kenny Lofton or Dave Roberts or Juan Pierre...
   7. akrasian Posted: November 23, 2006 at 03:36 AM (#2244550)
As G.U.O. has pointed out, Loney will likely shuttle between the outfield and first base for the Dodgers. The reason the Dodgers gave Nomar such a high base and no incentives is so that he'd be willing to sit out when he is slightly hurt, rather than play through injuries and suck like he did last season.

I'd rather Nomar played third, with Betemit filling in for him and Kent as necessary, but the Dodgers seem to be (stupidly) convinced that third base would be a greater injury risk than first. Loney should be able to handle right - he's played it in the minors - but most scouts seem convinced that he's a future gold glover at first, so I'd rather he got comfortable.

Kemp won't start the season in the majors anyway - and frankly, didn't look good in center last season. Maybe in a year or so he'll be able to handle it - he is still a raw athlete.

The more I think about it, I'm not convinced that Pierre would be untradeable in two years. Figure some further salary inflation in the interim - if Pierre puts up an empty .300 or so batting average over the next two seasons, and averages 50 steals per season (both plausible) there would likely be some GMs willing to trade for him, especially if the Dodgers ate a small portion of the contract - something Colletti has shown a willingness to do.
   8. Flynn Posted: November 23, 2006 at 03:52 AM (#2244558)
I'd take the optimistic on Nomar.

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