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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, December 12, 2007

Dodgers - Reportedly Signed Kuroda

Los Angeles Dodgers - Reportedly signed P Hiroki Kuroda to a contract of some sort.

This might be a bit premature, but we (or me) here at the Transaction Oracle like to push the envelope to the max.  And to the extreme.  And to the limit.  Your humble servant is badass enough to drink 2 Mountain Dews in a row.  That is, if Mountain Dew wasn’t a horrific strontium-90 infused concoction that leaves a film on your throat similar to the fictional green ooze that turned four ordinary turtles into four Cowabunguous ninjas.

No detailed dollar figures or years have been released/leaked, but if I had to guess, it probably compensates Kuroda with a large amount of American dollars to be paid off over a specific period of time, with whole years being the unit of time used.  With Kuroda and Fukodome, it’ll be interesting who gets an anglicized name first, a la “Tad” Iguchi or Dice-K.  Casey Fukodome?  Howie Kuroda?

Forced to take a stab at specifics, it’s probably in the neighborhood of the deal Aaron Cook just signed for dollars - 3 or 4 years, somewhere in the low 8 figures each year.  Kuroda’s clearly better than Igawa, but certainly not as good as Matsuzaka, so I guess the pricing makes sense, especially in a terrible free agent market for pitching.  When Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse are the most valuable pitching free agents, you can’t complain when a team does this.  And maybe even the Dodgers won’t screw over Chad Billingsley for the second straight spring!

I did go ahead and change the games started a bit - Japanese pitcher usage is quite different, so it would look a little weird (but doesn’t change anything on the projection!)

2008 ZiPS Projection - Hiroki Kuroda
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA   ERA+
Projection 12   9 26 26 180 186   79 21 37 114 3.92   115
2009?    11   8 25 25 176 182   79 20 40 112 4.04   112  
2010?    10   9 25 25 172 184   82 20 44 102 4.29   105
Opt. (15%) 15   7 28 28 203 194   75 20 36 141 3.33   136
Pes. (15%)  7 10 22 22 144 163   79 21 40 79 4.94   92
Top Comps:  Bryn Smith, Brad Radke

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 12, 2007 at 03:52 PM | 18 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Walt Davis Posted: December 12, 2007 at 06:55 PM (#2642663)
Presumably Hiro, like the character on Heroes.

Fukudome will have many Anglicized nicknames I suspect but I wouldn't make "Casey" the favorite.
   2. Cowboy Popup Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:01 PM (#2642667)
Dan, I'm curious, if he is clearly worse then Dice-K, why is his projection better then how Dice-K performed? NL? Dice-K underperformed his projection? Something else? Thanks again.
   3. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:09 PM (#2642675)
Zips projected Dice-K to post a 3.44 in 2007.
   4. The District Attorney Posted: December 12, 2007 at 07:10 PM (#2642676)
   5. akrasian Posted: December 12, 2007 at 11:03 PM (#2642989)
And maybe even the Dodgers won't screw over Chad Billingsley for the second straight spring!

Billingsley was the best Dodger starter in the second half - that should give him some security anyway.

It looks like the Dodgers will have Billingsley, Penny, Lowe, Kuroda, Schmidt (if healthy and recovered) and Loaiza competing for the six spots, with several kids waiting in the wings. Hopefully enough depth.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: December 13, 2007 at 12:53 AM (#2643116)
Billingsley was the best Dodger starter in the second half - that should give him some security anyway.

Billingsley also was 7-2, 3.16 in the 2nd half of 2006, but cruising for half a season in real games obviously isn't anywhere near as indicative as a couple of bad exhibition games.
   7. akrasian Posted: December 13, 2007 at 03:02 AM (#2643217)
His ERA was good in the second half of 2006 - but his k/bb ratio in 62.2 innings was a less than stellar 45/37.

In 2007 is k/bb ratio in the second half was 83/42 in 92.1 innings.

I agree that he should have been given the job out of spring training - but he looked far better in 2007 than he had in 2006.
   8. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 13, 2007 at 06:03 AM (#2643416)
I would be shocked if Schmidt is ready to go by opening day. I'd be suprised if he came back by June 1. And few pitchers ever fully recover from a fully torn rotator cuff!
   9. KJOK Posted: December 13, 2007 at 08:13 AM (#2643464)
For what it's worth, my MLE 'system' projects him at 3.27 ERA in Dodger Stadium.

The big difference seems to be HR's - Japanese pitchers generally get a tremendous HR prevention boost moving from NPB to MLB due to the larger ballparks outweighing having to face better HR hitters....nevertheless, I think my projection may be too optimistic...
   10. npurcell Posted: December 15, 2007 at 10:18 PM (#2646823)
any other Kuroda projections? CHONE???
   11. shoewizard Posted: December 15, 2007 at 10:48 PM (#2646842)
ZIPS for Kei Igawa:

200 IP 4.77 ERA 225 H, 49 W, 135 K's 1.37 WHIP 33 HR
   12. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 16, 2007 at 05:00 AM (#2647112)
Well the signing is now official. I hope ZiPS knows what it is talking about in this case. It's been overrating Japanese pitchers in recent years.
   13. akrasian Posted: December 16, 2007 at 06:09 PM (#2647335)
Even the pessimistic wouldn't be a disaster, although he would be way overpaid in that scenario. If he can put up a couple of seasons in the 105-110 ERA+ range, I think the Dodgers would be content.
   14. npurcell Posted: December 17, 2007 at 09:31 PM (#2648271)
question, does anyone have any GB rates on Kuroda? There have been articles stating that he is a big groundball pitcher. Would like some stats to back that up.
   15. IronChef Chris Wok Posted: December 18, 2007 at 12:37 AM (#2648388)
The Carp stadium is a bloody bandbox...

91.4m to LF and RF corners, 115.8m to the "deepest" part of Cf. High Wall though at 2.55m
   16. Rally Posted: December 18, 2007 at 12:47 AM (#2648393)
any other Kuroda projections? CHONE???

Kuroda: 181 IP, 174H, 49bb 137k 21hr 3.78 ERA
   17. Valentine Posted: December 18, 2007 at 01:10 AM (#2648398)
Dice-K underperformed his projection?

Matsuzaka had a 3.59 ERA through mid-August... Looking at his full-season averages doesn't do him justice.

I wouldn't be shocked of Kuroda suffers in the final month or two as well.
   18. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:23 AM (#3303081)
The jury is still out. The projections look pretty spot on so far, except for a liner to the head.

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