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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Friday, December 07, 2007

Dodgers - Signed Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed CF Andruw Jones to a 2-year contract.

Jones wanted a lot more money, but as solid a career as he’s had, he wasn’t getting 7/130 after a miserable 2007 season.  While $18 million per looks like a lot, the years make it a good risk.  Now, I’m not sure if Jones (or Hunter and definitely not Pierre) is the right player for the Dodgers, but they’re determined to buy the NL West, no matter what the team’s strengths and weaknesses are.  At least there’s a slim chance that Juan Pierre will end up riding the pine, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.  I do think the odds are that Andruw Jones is a better player than Hunter.

2008 ZiPS Projection - Andruw Jones
———————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————-
Projection   515 88 128 25 2 34 110 66 121   3 .249 .344 .503  
2009?      470 80 114 22 0 29 102 62 112   2 .243 .341 .474
———————————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%)  566 116 158 31 4 45 133 87 107   8 .279 .385 .587    
Pes. (15%)  419 59   93 16 0 22 68 45 109   1 .222 .303 .418
———————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Rick Monday, Dwayne Murphy

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:59 AM | 37 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 07, 2007 at 06:43 AM (#2637687)
That projection looks a lot like the Andruw Jones we all know and love. ZiPS thinks 2007 was a fluke as do I.
   2. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 07, 2007 at 06:50 AM (#2637699)
Top Comps: Rick Monday, Dwayne Murphy

I was confused by that, but then I looked them up. I didn't know they were that good.
   3. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:17 AM (#2637726)
At least there's a slim chance that Juan Pierre will end up riding the pine, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

I think the chance is more than slim. I've said it in the other thread, but Torre has no reason to feel loyalty to Pierre, and in New York he showed a willingness to play the kids over crappy vets, when the kids performed. Barring a trade of one either Kemp or Ethier for a starting pitcher, Pierre's consecutive game streak will end early this season.
   4. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:27 AM (#2637733)
in New York he showed a willingness to play the kids

Wait...someone who doesn't repeat the ridiculous orthodoxy that Torre was allergic to young players? Hope your armor's on.

Now tell me: Did Torre destroy Scott Proctor's arm? If Proctor gets hurt some time in the next few seasons, will that be proof Torre ruined his career?
   5. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:42 AM (#2637746)
Wait...someone who doesn't repeat the ridiculous orthodoxy that Torre was allergic to young players? Hope your armor's on.

Just this past season he made Melky the starting CF. Now, a hobbled Damon was still better than Pierre, and at least last season both Ethier and Kemp were better than Cabrera.
   6. Best Dressed Chicken in Town Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:53 AM (#2637754)
Just this past season he made Melky the starting CF.

I agree with you, if that wasn't clear. Torre installed numerous unproven players into his lineup in NY.
   7. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:05 AM (#2637757)
I knew you were agreeing with me. I was just providing preemptive armor against the others you warned me about . . .
   8. SouthSideRyan Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:25 AM (#2637768)
Torre will feel loyalty to Pierre once he gets to know him. He's too darn cuddly to bench.
   9. npurcell Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:33 AM (#2637773)
566AB 45hr .279/.385/.587


Dodgers probably go to the playoffs if that happens.

Colleti quote...

"We are not of the mind to give up three or four prospects for one player, I'll tell you that," Colletti said. To move Kemp, Colletti added, "I'd have to have a conversation where my jaw drops. It's got to be something you can't say no to. I haven't heard anything like that. In fact, teams have stopped asking."
   10. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:22 AM (#2637788)
I haven't heard anything like that. In fact, teams have stopped asking.


Well, Ned, if you keep telling everyone they need to take Pierre along with Kemp in a trade, of course they'll stop asking.
   11. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:36 AM (#2637794)
from the 2007 season:

R/G
Andruw Jones 4.2
Juan Pierre 4.4

Now THAT'S a thing of beauty.
   12. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:44 AM (#2637802)
Also read the Dodgers are looking at acquiring Rolen. My guess is that moves Nomar to LF, and Pierre to RF.
   13. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:45 AM (#2637803)
So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?
   14. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:50 AM (#2637808)
So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?


Soylent green?
   15. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:52 AM (#2637810)
Knowing Colletti, it just might happen...
   16. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2007 at 10:29 AM (#2637817)
Nobody -- as in not even Dave Littlefield on his worst day -- would be batshit crazy enough to put Pierre in RF. The CF would have to run over as a second relay man.
   17. Mike Green Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:35 PM (#2637959)
Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...
   18. SouthSideRyan Posted: December 07, 2007 at 04:54 PM (#2637975)
Speaking of Littlefield, the Cubs are thinking about bringing him into the fold. Their incompetence knows no bounds. Or maybe it does, so they're bringing in Littlefield to help stretch that boundary.
   19. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:00 PM (#2637985)
So where do Kemp and Ethier wind up?

Minnesota? Baltimore? Oakland?

Would Ned like Matsui for Loney ;-)
   20. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:15 PM (#2638008)
Walt, I believe the guy who wrote post 12 is a Dbacks fan.
   21. BeanoCook Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:16 PM (#2638010)
Kemp will end up in Milwaukee. Hall moves to 3b, Braun to LF. Watch.
   22. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:40 PM (#2638048)
zero chance Kemp ends up in Milwaukee.
   23. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2007 at 05:50 PM (#2638061)
Kemp will end up in Milwaukee. Hall moves to 3b, Braun to LF. Watch.

People keep predicting that Colletti will trade a kid who's played well in the majors. It has yet to happen, and he's been on the job for two years now.
   24. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: December 07, 2007 at 06:16 PM (#2638080)
Sorry D-Back fans, but it looks like Pierre to Chicago is gaining momentum.


Acquiring Jones also allows the Dodgers to entertain offers for speedy center fielder Juan Pierre, the former Cub whom Guillen adores from their days together with the Marlins. The Sox are still in need of a legit leadoff hitter, and Pierre would team well at the top of the Sox’ lineup with newly acquired shortstop Orlando Cabrera — Williams’ lone bright spot this offseason — in the No. 2 spot. Say what you will about Pierre, but he would be an improvement over current leadoff favorite Jerry Owens.


http://www.suntimes.com/sports/deluca/685060,deluca120607.article
   25. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 07, 2007 at 06:19 PM (#2638082)
Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...


Didn't that team win the World Series?
   26. Sexy Lizard Posted: December 07, 2007 at 06:36 PM (#2638103)
Didn't that team win the World Series?

Yes, behind All-Star Scott Podsednik and his Game 2 home run!
   27. Exploring Leftist Conservatism since 2008 (ark..) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 07:48 PM (#2638198)
Walt's right. Pierre's the left-fielder now. Think Scott Podsednik, 2005, Dodger fans...


One more reason to jeer the Andruw signing.
   28. Honkie Kong Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:07 PM (#2638218)
I asked this question in the signing thread, and got no response. So will try again.

How many CFs have played 10+ seasons, averaging over 155 games per year? And what is their aging pattern?
   29. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: December 07, 2007 at 08:09 PM (#2638223)
How many CFs have played 10+ seasons, averaging over 155 games per year? And what is their aging pattern?

Is that rhetorical? If you want to know go to B-Ref PI and do a search. You have to pay, but it's well worth it to support B-Ref.
   30. GEB4000 Posted: December 07, 2007 at 09:57 PM (#2638347)
Jones is a strange player. He's got a good shot at the HOF, but he'll get in for his defense because he's not a great hitter. If Dave Kingman were a gold glove centerfielder, he would be Andruw Jones.
   31. Sexy Lizard Posted: December 07, 2007 at 10:13 PM (#2638365)
He's got a good shot at the HOF, but he'll get in for his defense because he's not a great hitter. If Dave Kingman were a gold glove centerfielder, he would be Andruw Jones.

Andruw also started really young (3 years young than Kingman) and he'll generate some great counting stats if he ages reasonably well. He's got 1683 hits and 368 HRs (and 10 GGs) and he's turning 31 at the beginning of next year. That's pretty incredible for someone who's never really been one of the best hitters in the league. Give him 550 HRs and 2600 hits and he makes the Hall easily.
   32. I Am Not a Number Posted: December 09, 2007 at 02:33 PM (#2639343)
Give him 550 HRs and 2600 hits and he makes the Hall easily.

And it'd still be a disappointing career based on how he looked as a 21-year old (which I don't say sarcastically). He was supposed to be Willie Mays, damn it.
   33. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:20 AM (#3303080)
Since we're rehashing all the old Dodger signings, I thought I'd go back to this one. The pessimistic projection would have been nice in retrospect.

Wow. Look at all the potential HOF posts. *sigh*
   34. MM1f Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:25 AM (#3303083)
He is putting up a 111 OPS+ in what would have been year 2 of the deal
   35.   Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:48 AM (#3303086)
He had a fantastic start, but since May 1 he's hitting .198 / .296 / .442
   36. Tripon Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:52 AM (#3303087)
Andruw Jones better hope the Rangers like him enough for next year.
   37. JPWF13 Posted: August 24, 2009 at 07:25 PM (#3303663)
And it'd still be a disappointing career based on how he looked as a 21-year old (which I don't say sarcastically). He was supposed to be Willie Mays, damn it.


You know, if you neutralize his career to 1975 NL, you get a career .244 batter with 363 homers through age 32.

Pre-age 30 cliff dive he was at .263/.342/.497, OPS+ of 113

All Hall of Famer OFs : Average .275 or less, OPS+ between 110 and 120, 4000+ PAs through age 29:
Max Carey
ALL OFs:
nt Player OPS+ BA PA From To Ages G
+----+-----------------+----+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+
1 Joe Rudi 120 .275 4150 1967 1976 20-29 1036
2 Dwight Evans 119 .265 4393 1972 1981 20-29 1172
3 Jesse Barfield 118 .263 4398 1981 1989 21-29 1161
4 George Hendrick 118 .275 4176 1971 1979 21-29 1076
5 Pat Burrell 117 .258 4145 2000 2006 23-29 994
6 Andruw Jones 116 .267 6617 1996 2006 19-29 1607
7 Sammy Sosa 114 .264 5096 1989 1998 20-29 1247
8 Chili Davis 114 .268 4860 1981 1989 21-29 1186
9 Ruben Sierra 112 .272 6197 1986 1995 20-29 1454
10 Dusty Baker 111 .274 4119 1968 1978 19-29 1042
11 Carlos May 111 .274 4723 1968 1977 20-29 1165
12 Ron Fairly 111 .261 4455 1958 1968 19-29 1276
13 Lee Mazzilli 110 .263 4049 1976 1984 21-29 1051
14 Ken Henderson 110 .262 4051 1965 1975 19-29 1049
15 Tommie Agee 110 .258 4036 1962 1972 19-29 1020
16 Max Carey 110 .273 5358 1910 1919 20-29 1232
17 Red Murray 110 .273 4311 1906 1913 22-29 1060

Andruw had counting numbers on his side due to:
early start, played in high offense era, but
guys with OPS+s of 115 through age 30, tend to sink under 100 before reaching 35

early cliff dive aside, I think it was always less than 50/50, even with his huge head start, for Andruw to reach some of the counting number milestones people assumed he would.

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