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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Dodgers - Signed Luis Gonzalez

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed OF Luis Gonzalez to a 1-year contract worth $7 million.

Well, after a nice signing of Jason Schmidt, Colletti decides to instantly cash in on the miniscule amount of karma he accrued and instead figure out how to block Loney and Kemp more effectively.  Sure, it’s only a year, but what good does being in Las Vegas do for Loney or the Dodgers?  He hit .380 against AAA pitchers - it’s a waste of his time.  After a promising start, Kemp had a stretch in which struggled against major league pitching.  Now, instead of making adjustments against major leaguers, he gets to beat up on AAA pitchers some more - is hitting .388 instead of .368 against Adrian Burnside and Kevin Jarvis going to teach him to hit against Brandon Webb or Chris Carpenter?  Not a ####### chance.  The Dodgers blocked one with the Nomar signing, now they’re blocking both.  The Dodgers signed Luis Gonzalez despite his very public delusions that he’s an Important Starting Outfielder and they fired DePo in part because of the Bradley/Kent clubhouse friction.  Unless Gonzalez hits truly horribly, something along the lines of 220/300/300 or so, he’s going to be starting in left.

I do thank Colletti from signing Gonzalez as it keeps the Orioles from doing that.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Luis Gonzalez
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
Projection   517 70 128 41 1 14 67 69 74   1 .248 .342 .412
Opt. (15%)  597 104 166 46 2 22 89 83 69   2 .277 .373 .472
Pes. (15%)  291 36   63 17 0   7 26 32 51   0 .216 .303 .347


Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 01:57 PM | 23 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. 1k5v3L Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:28 PM (#2254048)
The Dodgers blocked one with the Nomar signing, now they're blocking both.

me likey. that zips projection makes me smile
   2. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:36 PM (#2254059)
Hopefully this means that Colletti is planning to trade Kemp, Loney, and Billingsley for Erik Bedard.
   3. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:54 PM (#2254078)
Kemp, Loney, and Billingsley for Erik Bedard.

I know you're joking, but the saddest part is that Peter would never sign off on it. Bedard for 3 guys he's never heard of, with nary a Greek sounding name in the bunch?

We all know the sad truth - they need to do something to look busy, so Darin Erstad, pack your 1B mitt and go find yourself some orange-and-black cleats.
   4. Gromit Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:05 PM (#2254087)
I do thank Colletti from signing Gonzalez as it keeps the Orioles from doing that.

The rest of the NL West thanks Colletti also.

With all the questionable moves by the Dodgers (excluding Schmidt) and Giants, it looks like the NL West will be between the Padres and Dbacks. The best thing for SF and LA is for their older players to breakdown so they have to play the younger guys and then have a better chance to win
   5. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:10 PM (#2254094)
I was half-joking, but you're right -- Angelos would never sign off. (although I don't know if has a man crush on Bedard, so maybe that would help.)

In truth, that wouldn't be a terrible trade for the Dodgers. Bedard in the national league in Dodger stadium could really dominate, and he's still cheap and under control for, what, 3 more years? Billingsley will become Bedard if the Dodgers are lucky, and obviously for better or worse Loney and Kemp are somewhat blocked for the next couple years.
   6. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:15 PM (#2254100)
But could you imagine if the Orioles made that trade (let's say they threw in a prospect like G. Olson too), and traded Tejada and R. Hernandez for Santana, Wood, and Napoli, and traded B. Roberts for, say, P. Humber and another prospect? That would be a team with a great future. And a team I'd be thrilled to support.

   7. shoewizard Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:30 PM (#2254122)
me likey. that zips projection makes me smile

My guess is that you can knock about 10 doubles off that total in ZIPS too. LA is hardly the doubles factory that AZ was.

I think by mid season Gonzo is a strict platoon player, if Grady has any sack at all.
   8. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:33 PM (#2254128)
But could you imagine

go alternate universe O's!
   9. Yeaarrgghhhh Posted: December 07, 2006 at 03:41 PM (#2254134)
go alternate universe O's!

We should set up some sort of sim league with our fantasy O's. That team would be a hell of a lot more fun to follow than the real one.
   10. Cheer and boo and raise a hullabaloo Posted: December 07, 2006 at 04:55 PM (#2254277)
I'm pretty sure the only projections that Coletti looks at is the Age projection. "Wow, Gonzalez is projected to be 40 by the end of next year? We gotta sign that guy. Man, 40 years old. Age wins championships, right? That guy's gotta be worth 7, 8 million bucks."
   11. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 07, 2006 at 07:53 PM (#2254535)
   12. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 07, 2006 at 07:55 PM (#2254541)
But perhaps this could work out. Colleti has had success aquiring players thought to be past their prime before.
   13. Walt Davis Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:02 PM (#2254549)
It's one year -- it's not blocking anybody. Presumably one of Kemp/Loney gets to be the 4th OF -- lots of PAs to be had there. Kemp will be 22 and has all of 180 AAA AB and 200 AA AB -- a half-season of further AAA time ain't gonna do him no harm. Might not do him any good, but certainly no harm. As to Loney, excuse me for wondering whether the guy who hit 284 in AA in 2005 is a true 380 hitter in AAA. And even his AAA ISO was still just 166 (great 100 ML ABs though). How's his glove in LF anyway?

Plus with Nomar's injury history, Gonzalez being old and Ethier hardly being a sure thing (766 OPS in the second half though that's entirely a really crappy Sept), one or more of Kemp/Loney is likely to be roughly full time by mid-June or sooner.

Gonzalez could easily be the 2007 version of Burnitz. He could also easily return to being a league-average corner OF both offensively and defensively. I wouldn't have offered this deal. But he does provide depth and isn't guaranteed to suck.

FYI, everyone's ZIPS:

Ethier 829
Kemp 820
Loney 785
Gonzo 754

I wouldn't be surprised if defense made up the Gonzo-Loney difference for 2007. And certainly that Loney projection for a 1B/LF doesn't scream out to me that he couldn't use more time at AAA.
   14. Dingbat_Charlie Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:06 PM (#2254555)
Colletti has failed you for the last time.
   15. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:29 PM (#2254588)
Isn't the upside of "blocking somebody" that their service clock starts later?
   16. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:32 PM (#2254591)
Not really necessary, but I don't see that it hurts them that much so long as they now don't see Loney as expendable and give him away for something useless (like Colletti did with Navarro). Its hard to go wrong with a one-year contract for under $8M or so, especially for a team with revenues as strong as LA.
   17. shoewizard Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:38 PM (#2254604)
I can understand how my objectivity may be called into question here, but with that caveat aside, Gonzo is toast. He is reduced to being a complete guess hitter now, and if he doesn't guess right, he has NO chance up there.

Don't ask me what happened in July of 2007. It was a fluke. I know arbitrary begin and end points are pretty much B.S.,....but go to baseball musings daily data base and look up Gonzo 4/1-6/30 and 8/1-10/1

He had a GREAT July, and hit a ridiculous amount of doubles that month, but I watched this guy in every game of every inning he played, and I'm telling you guys he is done.
   18. scareduck Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:47 PM (#2254616)
Don't ask me what happened in July of 2007.

You know his 2007 stats? Please, I'm dying to know -- is he going to get more than 400 AB's?
   19. shoewizard Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2254628)
Ooops.....thanks for catching my typo. There's more where that came from. keep reading. ;-)
   20. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:54 PM (#2254633)
It's still not clear where Nomar will be playing this coming season - he's said he's willing to play third base, and frankly I'd think he was less likely to get injured at third than at first. That would make Betemit the super sub, and Loney the first baseman.

Kemp wasn't going to start the year in the majors regardless of what the Dodgers did this offseason - he's still too raw - he focused on other sports through high school and it shows at times.

If the Dodgers do keep Nomar at first, Loney would still get a lot of playing time between backing up the corner outfield spots and playing first whenever Nomar isn't playing.

I mainly like the signing because it means the Dodgers won't dump a bunch of prospects for Manny. And there is some chance that Luis will be okay enough. I'm hoping he'll pull a Shawn Green at least, and tear things up whenever he plays the Diamondbacks (like Green did against the Dodgers for a year and a half). I would rather the Dodgers trusted the kids going into the season, but since that isn't the case signing somebody for one year who can easily be pushed aside if the kids explode is an okay option.
   21. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 07, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2254639)
Can Gonzo be traded at the deadline this year?
   22. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:51 PM (#2254707)
Unless he negotiated a no trade clause, yes.
   23. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 07, 2006 at 09:58 PM (#2254718)

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