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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Dodgers - Signed Luis Gonzalez
Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed OF Luis Gonzalez to a 1-year contract worth $7 million.
Well, after a nice signing of Jason Schmidt, Colletti decides to instantly cash in on the miniscule amount of karma he accrued and instead figure out how to block Loney and Kemp more effectively. Sure, it’s only a year, but what good does being in Las Vegas do for Loney or the Dodgers? He hit .380 against AAA pitchers - it’s a waste of his time. After a promising start, Kemp had a stretch in which struggled against major league pitching. Now, instead of making adjustments against major leaguers, he gets to beat up on AAA pitchers some more - is hitting .388 instead of .368 against Adrian Burnside and Kevin Jarvis going to teach him to hit against Brandon Webb or Chris Carpenter? Not a ####### chance. The Dodgers blocked one with the Nomar signing, now they’re blocking both. The Dodgers signed Luis Gonzalez despite his very public delusions that he’s an Important Starting Outfielder and they fired DePo in part because of the Bradley/Kent clubhouse friction. Unless Gonzalez hits truly horribly, something along the lines of 220/300/300 or so, he’s going to be starting in left.
I do thank Colletti from signing Gonzalez as it keeps the Orioles from doing that.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Luis Gonzalez
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
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Projection 517 70 128 41 1 14 67 69 74 1 .248 .342 .412
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Opt. (15%) 597 104 166 46 2 22 89 83 69 2 .277 .373 .472
Pes. (15%) 291 36 63 17 0 7 26 32 51 0 .216 .303 .347
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Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 07, 2006 at 02:57 PM | 23 comment(s)
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1. Didi Dodo Doodoo (1k5v3L)me likey. that zips projection makes me smile
I know you're joking, but the saddest part is that Peter would never sign off on it. Bedard for 3 guys he's never heard of, with nary a Greek sounding name in the bunch?
We all know the sad truth - they need to do something to look busy, so Darin Erstad, pack your 1B mitt and go find yourself some orange-and-black cleats.
The rest of the NL West thanks Colletti also.
With all the questionable moves by the Dodgers (excluding Schmidt) and Giants, it looks like the NL West will be between the Padres and Dbacks. The best thing for SF and LA is for their older players to breakdown so they have to play the younger guys and then have a better chance to win
In truth, that wouldn't be a terrible trade for the Dodgers. Bedard in the national league in Dodger stadium could really dominate, and he's still cheap and under control for, what, 3 more years? Billingsley will become Bedard if the Dodgers are lucky, and obviously for better or worse Loney and Kemp are somewhat blocked for the next couple years.
<sigh>
My guess is that you can knock about 10 doubles off that total in ZIPS too. LA is hardly the doubles factory that AZ was.
I think by mid season Gonzo is a strict platoon player, if Grady has any sack at all.
go alternate universe O's!
We should set up some sort of sim league with our fantasy O's. That team would be a hell of a lot more fun to follow than the real one.
Plus with Nomar's injury history, Gonzalez being old and Ethier hardly being a sure thing (766 OPS in the second half though that's entirely a really crappy Sept), one or more of Kemp/Loney is likely to be roughly full time by mid-June or sooner.
Gonzalez could easily be the 2007 version of Burnitz. He could also easily return to being a league-average corner OF both offensively and defensively. I wouldn't have offered this deal. But he does provide depth and isn't guaranteed to suck.
FYI, everyone's ZIPS:
Ethier 829
Kemp 820
Loney 785
Gonzo 754
I wouldn't be surprised if defense made up the Gonzo-Loney difference for 2007. And certainly that Loney projection for a 1B/LF doesn't scream out to me that he couldn't use more time at AAA.
Don't ask me what happened in July of 2007. It was a fluke. I know arbitrary begin and end points are pretty much B.S.,....but go to baseball musings daily data base and look up Gonzo 4/1-6/30 and 8/1-10/1
He had a GREAT July, and hit a ridiculous amount of doubles that month, but I watched this guy in every game of every inning he played, and I'm telling you guys he is done.
You know his 2007 stats? Please, I'm dying to know -- is he going to get more than 400 AB's?
Kemp wasn't going to start the year in the majors regardless of what the Dodgers did this offseason - he's still too raw - he focused on other sports through high school and it shows at times.
If the Dodgers do keep Nomar at first, Loney would still get a lot of playing time between backing up the corner outfield spots and playing first whenever Nomar isn't playing.
I mainly like the signing because it means the Dodgers won't dump a bunch of prospects for Manny. And there is some chance that Luis will be okay enough. I'm hoping he'll pull a Shawn Green at least, and tear things up whenever he plays the Diamondbacks (like Green did against the Dodgers for a year and a half). I would rather the Dodgers trusted the kids going into the season, but since that isn't the case signing somebody for one year who can easily be pushed aside if the kids explode is an okay option.
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