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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, December 07, 2006

Dodgers - Signed Schmidt

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed P Jason Schmidt to a 3-year contract worth $47 million.

With the loose money out of the market earlier, the star contracts we’re seeing are starting to look less ridiculous.  The idea that someone would pay as much for 5 years of Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews Jr. as 3 years of Jason Schmidt tells me that people in baseball really don’t follow their IPTCHING WINS CHAMPI0NSHIPS~! junk.  I’m not a fan of Colletti, but this is a solid deal and it leaves the possibility of the Dodgers getting an outfielder with Brad Penny instead of giving away their hoarded talent.  As long as the Dodgers realize that they’re getting merely a solid, above-average pitcher rather than the Schmidt of a few years ago, they won’t be disappointed.

2007 ZiPS Projection -  Jason Schmidt
——————————————————————————————-
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Projection 12   8 29 29 192 172   84 22 77 183 3.94
2008     11   8 28 28 185 171   84 23 73 166 4.09
2009     10   8 26 26 169 161   80 23 67 144 4.26
——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 15   7 32 32 217 179   77 19 78 213 3.19
Pes. (15%)  8   8 25 25 156 151   82 23 68 145 4.73
———————————————————————————————

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: December 07, 2006 at 05:43 AM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2006 at 06:23 AM (#2253882)
The Dodgers have Penny - and with the Lieberthal signing - Toby Hall to trade. Maybe they can get a good bat for those two, at worst with a B prospect thrown in. Penny IS an all star game starter signed to a very good contract in this market, after all.
   2. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: August 16, 2009 at 08:59 PM (#3294292)
Well, with two months left on this contract and Schmidt on the DL, I got to say that this deal really sucked.
   3. 1k5v3L Posted: August 16, 2009 at 09:54 PM (#3294324)
The movie about Schmidt was excellent, however.
   4. Joe Bivens, Minor Genius Posted: August 16, 2009 at 10:52 PM (#3294358)
"Lifeboat", right?
   5. Justin T., Director of Somethin Posted: August 16, 2009 at 11:46 PM (#3294387)
This entry only got 1 comment the first time? When I saw it on Hot Topics, I thought they did it again. That woulda been something.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: August 17, 2009 at 12:59 AM (#3294419)
Bah, I was happy that this one was forgotten given how it's turned out.
   7. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: August 17, 2009 at 01:18 AM (#3294433)
This entry only got 1 comment the first time?


Well, 3 years for $47 million, to a pitcher who was only 33, and whose last five seasons looked like this:

year    W-L    ERA       IP     H    BB     K   
2002   13
-8    3.45   185.1   148    73   196
2003   17
-5    2.34   207.2   152    46   208
2004   18
-7    3.20   225.0   165    77   251
2005   12
-7    4.40   172.0   160    85   165
2006   11
-9    3.59   213.1   189    80   180 


was one of the most low-risk, reasonable contracts we were seeing at the time.

Sure, he was past his peak - a steady increase in baserunners - but what were the odds that he'd stop being able to make 29 starts a year, or tail off drastically somehow? And he himself was being quite logical in expecting three more years of good production to enable him to get one last big contract after 2009.
   8. Tripon Posted: August 17, 2009 at 01:48 AM (#3294449)
I just want to say that the Dodgers signing Schimdt to this contract despite knowing he had an injured rotator cuff was idiotic. At least the contract was insured, and the draft pick the Dodgers did give up to the Giants didn't come back and bite them in the ass.
   9. PreservedFish Posted: August 17, 2009 at 01:57 AM (#3294457)
Do you chalk this up as a success for the "pay higher yearly salaries with shorter commitments" strategy?
   10. NBarnes Posted: September 06, 2009 at 06:51 AM (#3315657)
PreservedFish: I think you kinda have to. Despite how terrible Schmidt has been for LA, this isn't really all that terrible a contract compared to the (lack of) wins some others have produced (I'm looking at you, Carlos Silva).

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