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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Thursday, December 07, 2006
Dodgers - Signed Schmidt
Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed P Jason Schmidt to a 3-year contract worth $47 million.
With the loose money out of the market earlier, the star contracts we’re seeing are starting to look less ridiculous. The idea that someone would pay as much for 5 years of Juan Pierre or Gary Matthews Jr. as 3 years of Jason Schmidt tells me that people in baseball really don’t follow their IPTCHING WINS CHAMPI0NSHIPS~! junk. I’m not a fan of Colletti, but this is a solid deal and it leaves the possibility of the Dodgers getting an outfielder with Brad Penny instead of giving away their hoarded talent. As long as the Dodgers realize that they’re getting merely a solid, above-average pitcher rather than the Schmidt of a few years ago, they won’t be disappointed.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Jason Schmidt ——————————————————————————————-
W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA ——————————————————————————————-
Projection 12 8 29 29 192 172 84 22 77 183 3.94
2008 11 8 28 28 185 171 84 23 73 166 4.09
2009 10 8 26 26 169 161 80 23 67 144 4.26 ——————————————————————————————-
Opt. (15%) 15 7 32 32 217 179 77 19 78 213 3.19
Pes. (15%) 8 8 25 25 156 151 82 23 68 145 4.73 ———————————————————————————————
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 07, 2006 at 05:43 AM | 10 comment(s)
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1. akrasian Posted: December 07, 2006 at 06:23 AM (#2253882)Well, 3 years for $47 million, to a pitcher who was only 33, and whose last five seasons looked like this:
year W-L ERA IP H BB K2002 13-8 3.45 185.1 148 73 196
2003 17-5 2.34 207.2 152 46 208
2004 18-7 3.20 225.0 165 77 251
2005 12-7 4.40 172.0 160 85 165
2006 11-9 3.59 213.1 189 80 180
was one of the most low-risk, reasonable contracts we were seeing at the time.
Sure, he was past his peak - a steady increase in baserunners - but what were the odds that he'd stop being able to make 29 starts a year, or tail off drastically somehow? And he himself was being quite logical in expecting three more years of good production to enable him to get one last big contract after 2009.
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