How does ZIPS account for defense? Or does it just include that as some part of park effects?

4.71 ERA is like 0.7 runs worse than league average per 9 innings. Which is probably like 0.5 runs worse than league average for a SP. Which is like 20 runs (~2 wins) below average. I'd have to imagine that means he's essentially replacement player. A bad signing, unless they have reason to believe he'll start improving.

Why don't they just flush 8 million dollars down the toilet.

Dodger Stadium must project to be a lot more neutral next year... a 95-100 ERA+ there would be in the 4.3s or 4.4s, not 4.7.

Well Tomko's ERA+ last year was 92. Sure, his numbers in 2004 were good, but his numbers in 2003, 2002, and 2001 were all terrible. He's also getting older. I think he shouldn't be predicted to have an ERA+ above 92 (what he did last year), and I think he's likely to be below 90.

FWIW, if LAD plays ~4.1 next year (basically what it's played like the last 2 years), a 92 ERA+ would be around 4.45. So you are right there.

Bombko!

I remember this dude giving up 2 1st inning fence clearing shots and an inside the parker ('99 Cin @ Phi) in the time it took me to walk 1.5 blocks. Fortunately, Mark Lewis led the Reds to an improbable comeback.

His first 2 years, Tomko had an incredibly effective slow curve and it looked like the Reds had finally grown themselves a starting pitcher. What happened?

Mark Lewis was the man.

Mark Lewis was the man.

Oh yeah. His slam in the Reds rout of the Dodgers in the '95 NLDS was fresh. At one point in '87, my name was just above his in the RBI & doubles leaders for Cincy high schools. I should've been a #1 pick.

Oh, that high school glory sure is fleeting. Oh wait, I got cut from my high school team. Damn...

If I remember correctly, Tomko was really good when he was seeing a sports psycologist at the end of 2004.

Oh, that high school glory sure is fleeting.

It sure is. I only have about six months of high school left before facing the harsh realities of college.

Magnum, did you go to the same high school as Lewis, or just in the same area?

This just seems to be getting worse and worse. If you're a starting pitcher and can produce an ERA+ of 85 or above you've hit the jackpot. I wonder what guys like Santana, Oswalt, and Zambrano would get in this market.

Same area. That year was definitely the best competition I faced, but if I even made the team at Hamilton, Lewis' school, I probably wouldn't have stepped in fair territory all season. Those dudes were good. Hamilton is north, but like the West Side of Cincy, most of those kids leave the womb with soft hands and the baseball 1st step. I was the only kid on my team that played summer ball. 1/2 of my teammates wore jeans & watches to practice. We would routinely get beat by 15 runs and laughed at by opposing coaches, players and their fans, but I wouldn't have traded it for the world. I got to play with great friends--one of them was a dead ringer, at 16, for Gene Tenace--and being out there on the diamond without a care in the world is as good as it gets.

stubbyc, I bet Santana & Oswalt would get 5 yrs at $17-$18M & Zambrano would get a spot less. At least Tomko didn't get Ortiz & Milton money.

<blockquote>and being out there on the diamond without a care in the world is as good as it gets.
<blockquote>

Amen 2 that.

How tough was it for a Gene Tenace look-alike to grow up in Cincinnati?

Check out Mark Lewis's freaky, small-sample-size 1995 season.

I did a stathead-like math project that called him the most valuable free agent available that year.

Colletti is doing too the Dodgers, what Sabean has done to the Giants. The difference is, there is no Barry Bonds too cover up his mistakes...but he does have Just Disabled Drew!

The other difference is that the Dodgers have a good minor league system, and I don't think Colletti has been throwing away draft picks, though I could be wrong.

I don't think Colletti has been throwing away draft picks, though I could be wrong.

They lost a draftpick for each of Furcal and Mueller, though their first is protected. I don't think Lofton was offered arbitration.

If Weaver signs elsewhere, then the Dodgers will get two high draft picks for him, which should leave them well off in terms of the draft.

My main concern about Colletti and the prospects at this stage is whether the kids will get a real shot. There are a bunch who should be integrated in 2007 and 2008, but the only kid who is getting time in 2006 is Navarro - who had already shown that he was major league ready before Colletti was hired.

Well, they're signing old players to short contracts, which implies for now that they're planning to bring in the youth in '07 and '08. With Colletti, though, be prepared for some prospect-for-veteran trades down the stretch--just hope the stuff he deals turns out the same as Ainsworth and Foppert and not Liriano...

Minor nitpick, but Grilli (given up by SF for Livan) or Vogelsong (given up by SF for Schmidt) are better examples of Giant pitching prospects that never panned out after being traded than Foppert--who is young enough (25) to still salvage a career up in Seattle. He didn't look that bad in Tacoma last year, just too many walks as usual. But if he can ever get his walk rate under 4.5, he has a shot at being an effective major league pitcher. I'm still sorry that the Giants let him go.

I heard that Foppert has not regained complete feel in his pitching hand since his Tommy John surgery. He was extremely wild for the Giants last year. Are their other examples of guys who do not regain control after TJ surgery?

"I don't think Colletti has been throwing away draft picks, though I could be wrong.

They lost a draftpick for each of Furcal and Mueller, though their first is protected. I don't think Lofton was offered arbitration."

Yeah but theres nothing wrong with giving up picks when you are getting quality players in return. The problem was with Sabean signing guys he didnt really care about, like Tucker, for the express purpose of getting rid of the pick. If you are getting a good reliver or a starting player, then by all means dump the pick.

Well, some of that depends on age, too. Your minor league system will go to hell fast if you sign a lot of 37 year-old type A free-agents, and your big-club's success (if any) won't be sustainable, because it has too few good prospects. The Giants' long-term plan, for example, seems to include bringing one starting pitcher up through the system into the rotation each year. Merkin Valdez is the guy next year, and barring a miracle, he's not going to be ready, just like Ainsworth and Foppert weren't in '03, keeping what was the NL's winningest regular-season team out of the Word Series.