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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Dodgers - Signed Wolf

Los Angeles Dodgers - Signed P Randy Wolf to a 1-year contract.

This contract guarantees Wolf $8 million - $7.5 in 2007 salary and a $500,000 buyout for the 2008 option of $9 million.

A little disappointing as the Dodgers are giving some indications that because of his option status, Chad Billingsley may be the odd man out despite him probably being a better pitcher than Wolf.  But hey, Dodger fans wanted to have their favorite managed like a Brian Sabean Team Without The Best Player of His Generation, so they’re getting what they wanted.  The last time Randy Wolf was both healthy and good was 2002.  We’re a month away from 2007 and not every pitcher who’s been injured for years is going to be Chris Carpenter.  But hey, if it doesn’t work out, they can always trade Matt Kemp or Chad Billingsley for someone awesome like Rodrigo Lopez or Glendon Rusch.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Randy Wolf
        W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
Projection 4   5 17 17   92   99   50 14 35 62 4.89
2008     4   4 15 15   84   88   45 13 31 56 4.82  

Opt. (15%)  5   4 19 19 104 102   46 12 35 75 3.98
Pes. (15%)  2   5 14 14   74   88   51 16 32 47 6.20



Dan Szymborski Posted: November 28, 2006 at 02:46 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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Reader Comments and Retorts

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   1. DL from MN Posted: November 28, 2006 at 03:57 PM (#2247406)
I'm not sure I understand the optimistic. The optimistic is 30 starts with his 4.89 ERA, the pessimistic should be 4 starts. You're putting the variance in ERA when the real variable is innings.
   2. Zonk is a Doppleclapper Posted: November 28, 2006 at 06:05 PM (#2247542)
I don't know -- I like this deal OK...

Beyond last year, when his post-TJ control was clearly awful - he may not have been as good as 2002, but he was hardly a disaster. Posting ERA+ of 97, 102, 103 in 2003, 2004, and 2005 respectively.

Sure, the injuries are a concern... but I don't think they're Kerry Wood concern level (Wolf's at least thrown 3 seasons of 200+ innings).

I think it's certainly a better deal than the Eaton deal above.

Chavez should help with the gopher balls - and if Wolf's control comes anywhere near OK, I think this will end up being a relative steal (at least compared to the rest of the market).

I love to bag on Colletti and the stone age Dodger front office as much as anyone, but I like this deal...
   3. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 28, 2006 at 06:51 PM (#2247592)
Its a good signing. My guess is Brad Penny is traded? Or Mark Hendrickson moves to the pen. He should be the man out - not Billingsley.
   4. npurcell Posted: November 28, 2006 at 08:58 PM (#2247708)
Chad Billingsley may be the odd man out despite him probably being a better pitcher than Wolf.

i dont understand why you believe billingsley would be the odd man out? He already unseated Hendrickson last year and if Hendrickson is even on the 2007 team, hes going to be a long man in the bullpen.

right now, the dodgers have the following rotation:

Billingsley is going to pitch in the rotation, i dont think it has crossed Collettis mind to replace his rotation spot. If anything, Kuo might be the odd man out if they sign another arm (schmidt) unless they also deal penny in a trade for a bat.
   5. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:56 AM (#2248915)
I think ZIPS is garbage for guys coming off Tommy John surgery. It's garbage anyway, but especially in this case.
   6. Dan Szymborski Posted: March 22, 2007 at 06:00 PM (#2315996)
Told you guys that Billingsley would very easily be the odd man out!
   7. Tripon Posted: August 24, 2009 at 04:24 AM (#3303066)
The 2nd time around was much better.
   8. Dr. Vaux Posted: August 24, 2009 at 04:34 AM (#3303068)
There's still a month and a half left.
   9. Tuque Posted: August 24, 2009 at 04:58 AM (#3303073)
Are we allowed to like Ned Colletti yet?
   10. Tripon Posted: August 24, 2009 at 05:09 AM (#3303076)
Not until the Jason Schimdt deal is finally done. He's still getting bonus payments until 2011.

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