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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Giants - Acquired Sanchez

San Francisco Giants - Acquired 2B Freddy Sanchez from the Pittsburgh Pirates for P Tim Alderson.

Geez, maybe the Pirates should have thrown in Jack Wilson to San Fran instead and gotten Madison Bumgarner as a throw-in?

What’s the difference between the Philadelphia and San Francisco acquisitions?  The Phillies gave up more players (and got a better player than Sanchez), but they also didn’t give away any of the players they really didn’t want to lose.  Alderson’s strikeouts are down, but he’s also just 20 and more than holding his own in the Eastern League.  Solid pitcher with above-average fastball/curve/change and a kind of weird jerky delivery that reminds me of someone but I can’t put a name to it at the moment.

Sanchez is a good player, usually above-average at the plate and with the glove, but Alderson is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball.  You want to see the Giants get more for a player of this caliber.  The Twins didn’t get much more for a year of Johan Santana (and arguably, not more at all).

I was underwhelmed by the take in the McLouth trade, but I love the talent the Pirates have picked up in the trades since then.


2009 ZIPS Projection - Freddy Sanchez
——————————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI   BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   355   45 105 28   3   6   34   20   60   5 .296 .334 .442
Rest-of-Year   215   28   63 14   1   3   23   11   28   1 .291 .331 .412
——————————————————————————————————————
Total       570   73 168 42   4   9   57   31   88   6 .294 .333 .431

 


2009 ZIPS Projection - Tim Alderson
——————————————————————————————————————
            W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER   HR   BB   SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————————————
Year-to-Date   2   7   18 18   91.7 119   62   17   23   42 6.09
Rest-of-Year   3   4   11 11   60.3   67   32   8   18   39 4.77
——————————————————————————————————————

Year-to-date totals include minor-league translations, if applicable.

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: July 30, 2009 at 12:53 AM | 16 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. JoeHova Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:03 AM (#3273321)
That rest-of-year projection looks pretty good for a 20 year old. How above-average is Alderson's fastball?
   2. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:21 AM (#3273331)
Alderson's fastball has some great movement and control, relatively unimpressive velocity. He'll have some great seasons if he has a strong infield defense behind him.

I really thought that the Giants should have tried to sign Hudson or Lopez last winter and was quite unhappy that they both wound up with division rivals. It should have been clear to Sabean that Burriss and Frandsen were inadequate. Had Sabean spent $3.5M to address an obvious weakness, then they would not have given 390 PA to 2B who combined for a 62 OPS+ over the first 100 games of the seasons, they would still have one of their better prospects, and they would probably have a better player.

Sanchez is an upgrade, but he's not a difference-maker. The Giants lineup is still among the worst in all of baseball and Sanchez does nothing to address their need for power. If Alderson turns out to be another Jason Grilli, then it won't be that painful a loss. But I think that there's a real chance that he turns out to be something special, in which case the Giants just traded away a half dozen years of cheap pitching for a mediocre, aging 2B.
   3. Bhaakon Posted: July 30, 2009 at 05:37 AM (#3273414)
You have a generous definition of special. I think there's a good chance that Alderson has a good major league career, but I doubt he'll ever do anything notable enough to make the casual fan regret his loss (not to say they he won't rack up enough value to make this trade look bad, just that I think he'll do so in a slow and unspectacular fashion). That's the reason that I'm having trouble building up ire against this trade, I'd already considered Alderson to be overrated and good candidate to sell high. I'm not at all angry that the Giants moved him, I'd just hoped that Sabean would get more for him.

Of course, what little I've heard from other team's scouts pretty much echoed my opinion, so maybe I was being too optimistic.
   4. 1k5v3L Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:31 PM (#3273657)
[3] IIRC, Keith Law wrote that Alderson's stuff has degraded quite a bit recently.
   5. Dan Szymborski Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:38 PM (#3273662)
Alderson's K rate has dropped off the table as the season's gone on - I hope he's not hurt.
   6. Randy Jones Posted: July 30, 2009 at 03:43 PM (#3273668)
According to KLaw, Alderson has lost several MPH on his fastball going from 90-92 or greater to 87-90 now. That could explain the drop in the K rate.
   7. birdlives is one crazy ninja Posted: July 30, 2009 at 08:15 PM (#3274409)
KLaw was not high on Alderson at all in his chat today.
   8. GregD Posted: July 30, 2009 at 08:23 PM (#3274431)
I wonder what Keith Law thinks about Alderson.
   9. ?Donde esta Dagoberto Campaneris? Posted: July 30, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3274455)
One thing abut this deal that I haven't seen discussed much is that the Giants only had to send one prospect away in the deal. Obviously, if you think they overspent that's not much consolation, but by only sending over one player they were able to hang onto to the two or three fringe guys you usually see tossed in a deal like this. Saving those guys by using a piece with as much value as Alderson has, is much like getting a couple of those guys by dumping a mediocre veteran. It's particularly sound if Alderson is, in fact, overrated at this point.

That doesn't change the equation much, but it is a different approach then the one we usually see and it's also a bit unusual coming from a guy who had the reputation of throwing around prospects like they were valueless.
   10. Toolsy McClutch Posted: July 30, 2009 at 08:31 PM (#3274457)
Keith Law Keith Law Keith Law!
   11. Darren Posted: July 31, 2009 at 01:53 PM (#3275363)
People (especially the dude at Fangraphs) are seriously underselling Sanchez. Here are his recent WAR values, per Fangraphs:


3.2
4.8
3.8
0.4
3.5 (09 pace)

Depending on how you account for the shoulder injury he had in 08, he projects to be a 2.5 to 3.5 win player going forward. You don't get a player that good, for a year and a half on a reasonable contract, without giving up a good prospect. And Alderson is a young pitcher with some recent concerns about his stuff. And as a pitcher, he's something the Giants have a lot of, so they can afford to deal him. We also shouldn't forget that after Freddy's 2010 option year, the Giants can offer him arbitration, to get him for another reasonably priced year or get picks.

This is a perfectly reasonable trade for the Giants, even a good one, considering their current place in the standings.
   12. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: July 31, 2009 at 04:14 PM (#3275623)
What an odd choice for a couple of days for TO to take off.

Washburn? Grabow? Sherrill?

There's no site I'd rather see check in on these than this one.
   13. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: July 31, 2009 at 04:26 PM (#3275657)
Sammy: go here.
   14. Sammy's Corked Whine Posted: July 31, 2009 at 06:07 PM (#3275815)
Thanks, Vlad! That's what I get for not visiting the front page.
   15. MOBster Posted: August 04, 2009 at 03:45 AM (#3279228)
Alderson is overrated and probably will not translate into a good MLB pitcher. His stuff is average and because of his motion, fans like him ... but most baseball people think he is a back of the rotation guy, at best. Sanchez was a great add for a team that needed a heart, a bat and some life ... Sanchez could push this team into the wildcard and the playoffs.
   16. bigseries Posted: August 25, 2009 at 10:26 PM (#3304958)
Question for the group: when minor league stats are regressed to the mean for the purpose of projections, are they regressed to the league average of the league that the player was playing in?

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