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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Giants - Activated Schmidt

San Francisco Giants - Activated P Jason Schmidt from the 15-day DL; optioned P Jeremy Accardo.

Good news for the Giants.  If Schmidt’s actually healthy, it provides a nice boost to a rather bleh pitching staff - you would hope that Alou is very careful with Schmidt’s arm now.  It’s amazing that the Giants have been able to cobble together enough offense to stay around .500.

Dan Szymborski Posted: May 25, 2005 at 12:52 PM | 10 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Jefferson Posted: May 25, 2005 at 04:14 PM (#1360483)
The Giants' new plan is obvious, now that I've seen last night's game. Schmidt is meant to both be the staff ace *and* replace Barry Bonds' offense.
   2. Steve Treder Posted: May 25, 2005 at 04:51 PM (#1360559)
It’s amazing that the Giants have been able to cobble together enough offense to stay around .500.

Damn straight. If you had told me before the season started that in late May they'd have been:

- Entirely without Bonds
- Essentially entirely without Benitez
- With a struggling, sore-armed Schmidt

Then I'd have told you that .500 would be wildly optimistic.

It's been kind of a smoke-and-mirrors act; at any point I can easily see them slipping into a bad tailspin. But they haven't done it; more than a quarter of the season has come and gone, and they're still right at .500. What the hell do I know?
   3. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: May 25, 2005 at 05:36 PM (#1360684)
If the Giants can continue to hover around .500 and Bonds can come back in full force, they have an outside shot of contending, as there's no dominant team in the NL West this year. The toughest thing going against them is that they've played a lot of weak opponent games already (part of the reason why they've stayed so close to .500).

They could still be interesting. The team's biggest need is a CFer (they have several interesting internal options for SP). Grissom's toast and Ellison is the poster child of their "smoke and mirros" offense. Once Ellison comes back to earth, its quite possible that they'll get even less offense out of CF than they do Matheny--which is thoroughly unacceptable.
   4. Tom (and his broom) Posted: May 25, 2005 at 05:39 PM (#1360698)
You know they are actually ahead of where they were last year.

Alou should get a lot of credit for their position thus far. With the rotation and bullpen he has had to go from plan A through plan c and d and somehow has managed to stabilize things. Tyler walker as closer with Munter and eyre as the set-up guys? Fassero starting, Rueter eating up innings?

And with the hitters Alou has allowed the "kids" to play. Ellison and Niekro may not be young and will probably not be stars...but right now in their prime they are above average players that are cheap as well. And i said in another thread that the Giants have 6 players that can play the middle infield that are better than anybody the cubs can put there. Sabean has stocked the bench with solid hitters, other than Grissom and Tucker everybody has been solid with the bat, including a very surprising Matheny.

The big question is who will get booted when Bonds does come back? The obvious choice performance wise is Grissom.
   5. Steve Treder Posted: May 25, 2005 at 05:59 PM (#1360766)
Ellison and Niekro may not be young and will probably not be stars...but right now in their prime they are above average players that are cheap as well.

I agree with everything that's been said except this. Ellison and Niekro are useful role players, but neither is close to above average.
   6. Tom (and his broom) Posted: May 25, 2005 at 07:24 PM (#1360964)
Steve, i stand by the above average claim, right now they are both above average for their position, hitting and fielding. Not much above average to be sure but above average.
   7. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: May 26, 2005 at 01:51 AM (#1362212)
Steve, i stand by the above average claim, right now they are both above average for their position, hitting and fielding. Not much above average to be sure but above average.

Both have EQAs of .287, which I suppose is above-average. But I don't see how you can attribute that performance level to anything other than a small sample size. Put it another way: if each gets over 250 PA by season's end, I'd wager that both will EQAs will be a lot closer to .247 than .287.
   8. Bhaakon Posted: May 26, 2005 at 03:10 AM (#1362342)
But I don't see how you can attribute that performance level to anything other than a small sample size.


There's careful platooning as well. Ellison's going to decline as injuries and ineffectiveness force him into a starting role, but I suspect Niekro can more or less maintain his performance as long as he's fed a healthy diet of southpaws.
   9. Steve Treder Posted: May 26, 2005 at 03:42 AM (#1362410)
I suspect Niekro can more or less maintain his performance as long as he's fed a healthy diet of southpaws.

More or less. He won't continue to hit home runs at this rate.
   10. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: May 26, 2005 at 04:12 AM (#1362481)
Of Niekro's 81 AB entering today's game, 35 came against lefties and 46 against righties.

But even with platooning, his overall OBP is below .300 (consistent with his minor league numbers) while his slugging is an unexpected .580. So the question is whether its reasonable to expect him to continue hitting a homer in every 13.5 at bats. His minor league track record indicates that such a rate is about twice what one would expect him to do in the majors. Once his SLG falls to an expected sub-.450, his EQA going to drop fast if his OBP remains sub-.300.

Entering today's game, he's got a 1.151 OPS against lefties in 36 PA (driven mostly by 4 HR). The question is whether its more reasonable to attribute that performance to sampling error or a sustainable improvement in his true talent. I don't see how any reasonable person could possibly claim the latter.

If he gets 250 or more ABs, I'd be very surprised if his EQA breaks .250.

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