Mets - Signed Alou
New York Mets - Signed OF Moises Alou to a 1-year contract; claimed P Jason Standridge; acquired P Adam Bostick and P Jason Vargas from the Florida Marlins for P Henry Owens and P Matthew Lindstrom.
The Alou deal is $8.5 million. I like it, though, as it’s only for one year. While Alou wasn’t the healthiest last year, he at least has a track record of not missing almost all of the season, unless a treadmill is involved. When we’re talking 40-year-old players, the difference between a 1-year and 2-year contract is big.
The pitcher moves are simply depth moves. Minor league relievers, even promising ones like Henry Owens, have very limited trade value and it usually comes down to which team wants to try it with which reliever. Bostick and Vargas add minor league depth to the Mets, further guaranteeing that a Jose Lima won’t appear for the Mets sometime down the road, which is a very good thing.
2007 ZiPS Projection - Moises Alou
———————————————————————————————————
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Projection 400 60 114 23 1 20 66 43 48 2 .285 .358 .498
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%) 453 77 138 31 3 26 93 56 47 3 .305 .384 .558
Pes. (15%) 286 36 73 14 0 11 37 27 38 1 .255 .324 .420
———————————————————————————————————
2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bostick 6 11 27 27 151 154 95 21 85 101 5.66
Lindstrom 3 5 42 5 70 76 47 13 43 48 6.04
Owens 3 2 33 0 42 37 19 4 20 44 4.07
Standridge 5 4 45 10 108 107 52 9 47 66 4.33
Vargas 7 9 29 24 149 147 83 21 64 109 5.01
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 21, 2006 at 05:47 PM |
149 comment(s)
Login to Bookmark
Related News:
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
I can't wait for the Mets to resign Bonds!
Lets say Alou's last four seasons were the same, but instead, he was 33 years old now - how would his ZIPS compare? In general, how strong would you say the aging factor is assuming two guys have identical performance records, and both are on the wrong side of the aging curve, but one is only on the wrong side by a couple years, while the other is ancient?
Especially since his pessimistic one is probably what Shawn Green should be expected to do this year.
I don't particularly care how the year starts, but if the Mets have an outfield of Alou, Beltran, and Milledge by June or July, I'll be pretty happy.
You forgot the obligatory trip to the bathroom...
Alou is fine on his own at this price, as already said, the guy just flat out hits..... but I don't think the Mets can afford to have BOTH these guys playing the OF at the same for too many games.
Beltran is going to be exhausted come August.
That's what Met leftfielders hit last season. Say what you want about Alou's defense but he's going to be huge upgrade offensively. He should be a good upgrade overall.
Jeez, Met chatter has been really down of late. I honestly think this is just Met fans having more confidence in Minaya than in previous offseasons. The previous two offseasons, I think we were more worried about what he might do.
Russlan, I think there just haven't been any stories the last few days. That said, I want to talk about the Mets. Now.
Base, since there are no articles or stories let's make one because I too want to talk about the Mets. What's up with Randolph and his contract?
Who is his successor if he goes? (I don't think he will go, but you never know). HoJo and Oberkfell seem like obvious alternatives. Carter? Julio Franco? (only half kidding on that last one)
I don't think the salary is the big deal as much as the number of years.
With respect to the pitching, would you guys be happy to go with the Mets have if just one of Zito/Glavine signs with the Mets, assuming Schmidt is going to stay on the West Coast? Should the Mets sign a second tier guy like Suppan/Lilly/Padilla or trade for an ace?
Personally, I don't like the idea of signing second tier types but the Mets do need guys that we can have confidence to give you 180-200 IP of 100 ERA+ pitching. The thing is, do you roll the dice with the young guys or pay through the nose for good but not elite pitching?
I don't think so. In 2005, the consensus was that Willie was one of the worst managers in baseball. He may have improved in 2006 but I think many of his flaws were covered up by the increased talent level and many of his poor decisions were ignored since the Mets were never in a tight race and played so well. I'm still skeptical about Willie and don't think that he deserves a contract much better than middle of the pack.
You're not accounting for other aspects of the manager's value - to fans, to players currently on the team, to players who might consider playing with the team, to the franchise's brand, as a spokesperson for the organization. Plus, as a couch potato, I try never to underestimate the psychological aspect of the game.
The Mets would have made the playoffs with Moqtada al Sadr as manager, but they probably wouldn't want him. Or Melvin.
-- MWE
I don't think Willie was a bad manager in 2005. He's good at all the off-field stuff and the players all seem to like him.
I don't buy into all this garbage about on-field tactics other than bullpen management. I don't think it makes a huge deal in the standings.
I think how a manager handles his bullpen is very important and that's why people thought he was much better in 2005. In 2005, the only guy who was reliable the entire year was Kool-Aid. He had a closer that was a ROOGY at best and a bunch of junk until Heilman established himself at the end of the year. Willie is a "hands-off" manager who doesn't try to overmanage. He's pretty predictable and Minaya knows that.
Running a good clubhouse is a lot more important than knowing when to put on the hit and run IMO and there's no reason to make this a distraction.
I just sh#t my pants. Seriously.
The real wildcard in the rotation is Ollie. We don't really know what to expect from him next year. An ERA between 3.50-5.50 wouldn't surpise me.
Personally, I don't like the idea of signing second tier types but the Mets do need guys that we can have confidence to give you 180-200 IP of 100 ERA+ pitching. The thing is, do you roll the dice with the young guys or pay through the nose for good but not elite pitching?
I'm hoping Glavine stays and they don't sign Zito. I'd also like to sign Padilla.
Glavine/Padilla/Maine/Duque/Perez with Pelfrey, Humber, and crew waiting in the minors doesn't look too bad to me.
You're right. The Mets should set Willie's value at a certain amount and set how much they are willing to exceed that amount (which should not be that much). If Willie still demands too much then the Mets should just move on. Willie can be replaced very easily.
I see no reason why any Met fan should hope that the Mets don't sign Zito. Zito has a lot of value and as long as his price doesn't go to high, he should be a priority.
I don't understand at all why they didn't just re-up Glavine for $14M. Even if they're 99% sure he'll come back for $12M, I don't see why they're taking that 1% chance, given how much money they have and how screwed they are if he leaves.
They should be going all-out for Zito or Willis either way, so that shouldn't be a factor.
Sigh. Because they made an agreement with him mid-season 2006, and they honored it. Period. In return for him giving back some $$$, they made these faux "options" for 2007 which both sides agreed they would not exercise, so that Glavine would have the freedom to decide where he would play next season. The Mets, bless them, actually have some integrity in how they treat their players, and they kept their word. It is probably the one thing that gives them a fighting chance for Glavine to return, because he doesn't trust Schuerholz and he does trust the Wilpons.
As for Randolph, what the heck do you want from the guy? He was terrific in 2006 in every respect. He handled every personnel issue adroitly and firmly, from Feliciano's little mini-meltdown to Heilman's need to step up after Sanchez's injury. I've also come to believe, though I didn't think so at the time, he handled the Milledge situation correctly by NOT giving him playing time in September. That was long-term thinking designed to get the kid to see how he needed to conduct himself to earn his shot, not have it handed to him. Good for Randolph, because nothing will tell the Mets what they need to know about Milledge better than how he responds to that this spring. Not immediately, in the heat of the moment -- that's too soon to absorb what Randolph was trying to do. But if he hasn't "gotten it" by the spring, the Mets will know what they need to know.
They should lock him up and pay the dollars.
I don't buy that Alou is going to be slightly below average at all. Last year in roughly two thirds of a season, Alou put up a VORP of 27.9. Dial had him at -12/150 in the field and that's prorated to 8 for two thirds of a season. That means he was worth 2 wins above replacement last year if you believe that he was twice as bad as Green in the outfield.
Alou is still a fantastic hitter and I don't think he can give that much on defense.
That's supposed to be -8 runs obviously.
Yeah, but that only translates to five runs above average (Using 13 runs above average in LF, which MHS and Bpro have him at). MHS obviously thinks he might lose 6-7 runs when he gets a year older. I wouldn't be surprised, although I don't know, if Moises were a bad baserunner either and probably loses more runs there.
And he is a poor baserunner.
If he is replacing Greens at bats its an ok move. If he is replacing Endy Chavez or Milledge it is more likly than not just running in place.
He would have made more sense to an team that could hide him in the field a little better. Houston, Oakland, Detoit (prior to sheffield), Toronto (prior to Thomas), Philidephia, or STL (smaller outfields than Shea).
I don't think that makes them worse, just doesn't really help them much either. If they were definitly going to sign a corner bat, this likly wasn't the best option cost efficient option either as I thin Dellucci and Nixon are better players right now.
The idea of using both Green and Alou in the OF surrounding Beltran frightens me to death. The notion that it will somehow be OK because they will go to Chavez for late-inning defense is not nearly satisfactory -- six or seven innings of sub-par defense in the corners is going to hurt their pitchers and ultimately put a physical strain on Beltran. For that reason, I am actually comforted by my conviction that there is little likelihood that Alou and Green will each get 600 PAs, and almost no chance they both will. Chavez is going to get a lot more than just a couple of defensive innings a night when the Mets are ahead.
The bottom line, though, is that they HAD to increase their options in the OF, because they need to be in a position six weeks from now to deal Milledge if all else fails in the quest to add a starter. Alou might not have been the best choice, but he was a fairly reasonable one on a one-year contract.
On whom exactly? The 2b options out there are pretty mediocre. Julio Lugo might be better than Valentin, but does the upgrade really justify the cost? Stache proved last year that he can play second base with the best of them, and even in a bad year, I think he has enough power and plate discipline to be a pretty productive 8th hole hitter.
As for the Alou thing, well we needed a 6th hole hitter, and Moises sure can do that. The guy can flat out rake, and I'm guessing that if he continues to be productive on offense (and I think he will), the Mets will live with his defense. The problem really is Green. I'm sure by June Randolph will be pissed with his offense/defense combo, and we will start seeing an Alou-Beltran-Chavez OF on a regular basis.
Wow, I couldn't disagree more. First, both of those guys have to be platooned as neither can hit lefthanders, something the Mets struggled with last year and something they really needed to address. Trot Nixon can't stay healthy and he only posted a .767 OPS last year in a much friendlier environment.
Dellucci has posted some fine numbers and I wouldn't have minded picking him up at a lower price but he needs to be platooned and his fine defensive numbers are in a very small sample.
I think we will have to agree to disagree.
It certainly does seem like given the rest of the lineup, the regular LF would have to be a righty hitter. BTW, don't be surprised if Alou hits 4th rather than 6th. Again, I have no big problem with it, but, that would be what I would expect.
If the Mets trade Milledge, it will have little to do with Alou. Alou's 41 years old and Green is not signed past this year. These two aren't long term answers.
Yeah, Omar has made it clear Jeff Wilpon is driving the Glavine bus. I may not agree with the decision to decline Tommy’s option, but I have to admire them sticking to their word in the midst of a changed market. It wasn’t like they wanted to sell Tommy off for spare parts, like Sheffield was, but Tommy said the magic word (“family”) and the Wilpons bent over backwards to accommodate him. I hope Tommy appreciates all this and if he comes back, he better not sign for more than the $11m net cost to the Mets if they had picked up his option.
What puzzles me is why the Mets needed to restructure Glavine’s contract in the first place. They had a reasonable payroll, had just successfully launched a new network without the angst of YES, pulling in fans in large numbers and were virtually assured of the postseason. What did they need the extra $$$’s that Glavine gave back for?
That said, (to paraphrase Whitey) if the Nats want to give Patterson away, I'd take him. But I don't think the Mets should give up anything too valuable for him.
On the Glavine issue, the longer he remains unsigned I think the better our chances are of bringing him back. It is apparent that he wants to return to Atlanta but Atlanta's pursuit has been less than urgent. I hope (assume) the Mets have an offer out there and Glavine can't/won't wait forever. Nothing wrong with being the second choice.
There's nothing to be optimistic about in the way it's unfolded, at least not yet. Glavine made it clear he wasn't going to make any decisions about where he wants to be until after his Thanksgiving weekend vacation with his family. The Mets honored that and are waiting for word from him -- and the Braves may be, too. When he decides where he wants to be, I assume he'll begin talks with that team as step one.
1) Sheets
2) Peavy
3) Patterson
4) Willis
Also, the Mets might want to save their trading chips for midseason if Zambrano is still not extended and becomes available. Now I'll leave before the barrage of Cub posters arrive telling me that Zambrano will absolutely be extended by spring training.
FWIW and it really ain't worth that much, but Gotham Baseball has said that Bowden offered Patterson straight up for Milledge and Minaya said no.
A year ago, I would have happily traded Milledge for Patterson. The thing is, the market for starting pitchers is just crazy right now that guys like Padilla, Meche, Lilly, guys who don't have the upside of Patterson, are going to get 30+ million. In that kind of market, a guy who is three years away from free agency and will likely make less than 10 million dollars over that period are especially valuable.
Well it's 2:24 on the Monday after Thanksgiving so things are looking up :)
2) Peavy
I can't imagine any reason why those two would be traded by their teams.
I doubt the Nats trade Patterson without getting a pretty good return, but I doubt someone gives up something that good to get him.
I was looking at Heilman's stats as a reliever, and I knew he was good, but I didn't know he was that good;
154.2 IP, 2.97 ERA (143 ERA+), 122 H, 146/53 K/BB, 6 HR! And he's only allowed a .589 OPS.
I actually find that very tempting. Patterson's health record is very scary, but I think he has the potential to be an ace. If you wait to make the deal and Patterson proves that he is healthy, Milledge won't be enough to get it done.
I actually find that very tempting. Patterson's health record is very scary, but I think he has the potential to be an ace. If you wait to make the deal and Patterson proves that he is healthy, Milledge won't be enough to get it done.
I do like Patterson a lot, although how do you know that this isn't Washington selling its Enron stock early?
The other player that would be undervalued on that squad would be Ryan Church, although I don't know whose doghouse he was in for the past 2 years.
And you know what? That is a great point, and that in and of itself makes me more confident about Milledge. If the rumor is true that Bowden sought to acquire Milledge, and if it came after they hired Acta, then it indicates something meaningful about one insider's view of Milledge's alleged character issues and their long-term significance. Now, maybe Acta just has bad judgment in such things, but I tend to think it's quite a good sign that the first thing he said when he got there was (evidently) NOT, "Stay the heck away from Milledge. He's bad news."
1. Last season a league average starting player went for about 9 million, and the market is way up this year. If he is league average this is a good signing.
2. I don't see any reason to project Chavez as being as good as he was last year. You have to count 04-05 into the projection for 07...
We need to bait some other teams to sign our other arb'ed FAs and recoup some draft picks.
But I like Bradford in this pen. Let's get it done.
The Mets re-signed Bradford, El Duque and Valentin. I really doubt they offer arbitration to Floyd. Glavine, Bert, Mota and Oliver will most likely return back to the Mets. Not sure there are tons of opportunities to re-coup those draft picks.
Actually, this new CBA seems to encourage type B free agents to move to new teams.
Second, I had forgotten about Mota's suspension when I posted before. I have no idea how that affects his status with the Mets, but I would guess it probably means that he doesn't get offered arbitration.
I don't care about the picks, btw. I'd rather have Chad. This guy is a life-saver and chances are we will never see the guys we draft in Met uniforms. I mean, seriously, does anyone care about Kevin Mulvey or that guy from San Jose State we drafted?
Of course, I don't mean to imply that it's likely that these picks will turn into someone like Wright, or even become prospects on the level of Milledge and Pelfrey. But if it's even 10% that just one of these picks turns into a future regular for the Mets, I think it's worth giving up Bradford. And if it's even 1 or 2% that one of them becomes a David Wright, I'd do it. I'd rather be giving up Roberto Hernandez or Darren Oliver for those picks, but Bradford's OK. He's a 31 year-old middle reliever, and he could very easily lose it at any moment.
And if the Mets offer Hernandez and Oliver arbitration, and another team decides to go and sign them anyway, I'll be even happier. There's still a very strong core of Wagner, Heilman, Sanchez, and Feliciano, and I trust Minaya to fill any holes that may appear.
Sersiously, I agree with OFF. I'd much rather have Bradford than some third round pick.
Does somebody know the answer to this? I'm curious as well.
This should be an interesting Peterson-Mazzone challenge. Bradford was a totally different pitcher in his two years away from Peterson, then last year, when reunited, he was back to 2002-2003 performance.
I have become convinced that Peterson is either better than average as a pitching coach, or sat on a horseshoe since coming to the Mets.
From SOSH:
Let's hope that they do it before the Dec. 1st deadline. Although Shapiro is such a sneaky GM, I bet that's why they're not announcing it yet.
But Kool-Aid for a sandwich, I make that trade every time.
Two sandwiches for the Mets this offseason would be yummy.
Indians are #13 in 2007 draft order, so their #1 is protected. But knowing Shapiro, he's probably waiting for the Mets to decline arbitration, so that they won't have to give up anything. The Mets have this unusual history of almost never offering arb.
Still, I hope Omar changes tack this offseason. A sandwich for Kool-Aid would be a great yield.
That doesn't mean I think they will though. As Rask pointed out, the Mets have declined to offer arbitration in situations that seemed more obvious than this. But I still think it would be foolish to not do so.
Thank you, Rask. I hadn't relaized I had gone anywhere though. I'd rather the Mets get some picks for him but I wouldn't hate having Kool-Aid back at 2-3 million dollars either. I don't think he'd get more than that anyway in arbitration though I might be wrong about that.
I was referring to the Primer Blackout. Also known as the curse of Rob Base. Base has been banned from the site, and he told me to send his regards to you all.
***
There is no way the Indians sign Kool-Aid before the arb deadline. Rubin of Newsday wrote on his blog that the Mets aren't going to offer arbitration to Kool-Aid anyhow, and everyone in baseball knows about it. Shapiro is not a moron.
Fwiw, mlbtraderumors.com quotes a Mets source as saying that the Mets are shopping Brian Bannister around for a reliever. The Dbacks were interested in Bannister last year (supposedly there was talk of a Bannister for Aquino trade) but I doubt they're interested now. They've already got several guys like Bannister (or better) fighting for the last two spots in the rotation.
Well, if you really want details, Base decided to share them (and his correspondence with Jim Furtado) on Metsgeek.com. Go to this page, start with comment # 48:
http://www.metsgeek.com/?p=1505&cp=6#comments
He posted the correspondence with Jim in comment # 91.
I'll make no comment on it.
Tom Glavine's agent said Thursday he hadn't spoken to Braves officials since Tuesday and still had not begun contract discussions.
Glavine has told the Mets he'd have an answer for them before the winter meetings begin Monday. He could get a guaranteed two-year deal and a no-trade clause from the Mets, whereas the Braves might not do better than $7 million for one year. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution believes it's possible the Braves are looking to make a trade to free up salary before they make an offer to Glavine. However, if that's the case, they're going to have to get it done soon. Tim Hudson and Marcus Giles are the Braves most commonly mentioned in rumors.
Though I'm not surprised there have been complaints about him.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main