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— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Mets - Signed Alou

New York Mets - Signed OF Moises Alou to a 1-year contract; claimed P Jason Standridge; acquired P Adam Bostick and P Jason Vargas from the Florida Marlins for P Henry Owens and P Matthew Lindstrom.

The Alou deal is $8.5 million.  I like it, though, as it’s only for one year.  While Alou wasn’t the healthiest last year, he at least has a track record of not missing almost all of the season, unless a treadmill is involved.  When we’re talking 40-year-old players, the difference between a 1-year and 2-year contract is big.

The pitcher moves are simply depth moves.  Minor league relievers, even promising ones like Henry Owens, have very limited trade value and it usually comes down to which team wants to try it with which reliever.  Bostick and Vargas add minor league depth to the Mets, further guaranteeing that a Jose Lima won’t appear for the Mets sometime down the road, which is a very good thing.

2007 ZiPS Projection - Moises Alou
———————————————————————————————————
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OBP   SLG
———————————————————————————————————
Projection   400 60 114 23 1 20 66 43 48   2 .285 .358 .498
———————————————————————————————————
Opt. (15%)  453 77 138 31 3 26 93 56 47   3 .305 .384 .558
Pes. (15%)  286 36   73 14 0 11 37 27 38   1 .255 .324 .420
———————————————————————————————————

 

2006 ZiPS Projections
——————————————————————————————-
Player       W   L   G GS   IP   H   ER HR BB SO   ERA
——————————————————————————————-
Bostick     6 11 27 27 151 154   95 21 85 101 5.66
Lindstrom     3   5 42   5   70   76   47 13 43 48 6.04
Owens       3   2 33   0   42   37   19   4 20 44 4.07
Standridge   5   4 45 10 108 107   52   9 47 66 4.33
Vargas       7   9 29 24 149 147   83 21 64 109 5.01

 

 

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 21, 2006 at 05:47 PM | 149 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   101. Banta Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:43 AM (#2248848)
The site blacked out? Base got banned?

You guys just can't handle things when I'm not here!
   102. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:54 AM (#2248854)
The site blacked out? Base got banned?

You guys just can't handle things when I'm not here!


Yes, Banta. Two days without Primer was torture. I wanted to grab those flowers from the temporary site and just crush them. By the way, Congressional control switched parties, Banta.

Re: Glavine. This is giving me flashbacks of the Delgado/FLA/Sloane fiasco. Wilpon and Minaya may be a tad too nice. I can just picture Schuerholz dragging this out as long as he can to screw the Mets over.

"Tommy, about that contract, let me get back to you tomorrow. I promise."
   103. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 06:00 AM (#2248858)
Fwiw, I received a rather polite email from Jim Furtado a few days ago asking me to stop interacting with Rob Base on this forum as the squabbling was leading to complaints being sent to Jim by other users. I personally have never complained to Jim about Base.

Since this is Jim's site, and since the spat with Base was ridiculous and tiresome, I wrote to Jim that I had every intention of ignoring Base going forward and doing everything I can to maintain civilized behavior on this board. What Base did to provoke the suspension is his burden to bear. I have no comments on his email exchange with Jim.

Fwiw, after apparently getting suspended following the insults he sent to Jim, Base registered under a different user name and began posting stupid stuff again. That's probably what led to the ban.
   104. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 07:05 AM (#2248888)
There's a good column on the Glavine situation by Murray Chass of NYT. Someone should post this in the newsblog.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/01/sports/baseball/01chass.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Sounds like Glavine will make his decision by tomorrow.

Also, a couple of telling quotes in this article.

<quote>The personal reason? I like Tom Glavine and would like to have him around for the rest of his career. Glavine is one of the classiest players I have met and covered in the nearly half century that I have been writing about baseball. I have known him for more than a dozen years and value the time I have spent talking to him.</quote>

<quote>“Tommy Glavine isn’t the type of guy who plays those games,” Minaya said yesterday. “The Tommy Glavine I know wouldn’t do that.”</quote>

<quote>“I give Omar and the Wilpons credit for the way they’ve handled this,” he said in reference to Fred Wilpon, the Mets’ principal owner, and Jeff Wilpon, the team’s chief operating officer.</quote>
   105. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 07:09 AM (#2248890)
Someone should post this in the newsblog.


We really could use a Mets thread...
   106. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 09:51 PM (#2249342)
Breaking news: Friday afternoon, 3:45 pm.

Tommy Glavine resigns with the Mets. 1 yr deal/ 11M.


Welcome Back, Tommy!

What a relief.
   107. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:13 PM (#2249359)
The Base suspension is a travesty. They got the wrong guy.
   108. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:20 PM (#2249370)
The Base suspension is a travesty. They got the wrong guy.

Well, they're both ridiculous. I could do without either of them. I mean, 'vlad touches levski's peepee'? Give me a break.
   109. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2249380)
Welcome back, Tommy. 11 million in this market is a very nice price with only a one year commitment.
   110. tfbg9 Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:32 PM (#2249382)
Base is an aply named prick, IMHO. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Levski's merely a pest.
   111. Sam M. Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:34 PM (#2249384)
Tommy Glavine resigns with the Mets. 1 yr deal/ 11M.

Excellent. Good work by Clifton, to make sure he didn't let this linger too long and leave the Mets no choice but to move forward during the winter meetings to replace Glavine via a trade. That would have left Glavine with nowhere to go but the Braves, and I am confident John Schuerholz would NOT have been kind. Professional, no doubt, but not kind.

For the Mets, this leaves them with this:

Glavine/El Duque/Maine/Perez/Pelfrey

at least in my book. Some seem to prefer Williams over Pelfrey, but to that I say, "Ugh."

That is now at least a serviceable rotation, but it's still not good enough. What it does mean is that a trade for a quality guy could take the place of a Zito signing, if that just becomes prohibitive. The Mets are not totally at Boras's mercy on that front, I think. And that's a good thing.
   112. HowardMegdal Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:38 PM (#2249390)
With Zito, I feel very good about this rotation. You've got his consistency, and a nice mix of experience and upside should El Duque/Glavine hit their sell-by date, and a bunch of young options should Maine/Perez falter. However, Perez will be the Mets' best starter next year- and that isn't a shot at the other pitchers.
   113. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:41 PM (#2249393)
I'll miss Rob.

And welcome back Tommy. Not only does it improve our club, but it means the Mets won't trade Milledge for some overrated starter.

I still say go for the kill and get Zito.
   114. CrosbyBird Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:42 PM (#2249394)
I saw $10.5M on ESPN. The difference is minor... if I understand correctly, $11M would be identical in price to exercising the option (considering the $3M buyout). So the Mets may have saved $0.5M by waiting a couple of weeks. :)

I see Sam's rotation but I'd replace El Duque with El Duque/Williams. I don't expect 35 starts from Hernandez in 2007.

My foolhardy prediction is that Oliver Perez is the best starting pitcher for the 2007 Mets, slightly edging Maine.
   115. JPWF13 Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:42 PM (#2249395)
Base is an aply named prick, IMHO. Good riddance to bad rubbish. Levski's merely a pest.


I believe in free speech, and generally do not believe in banning posters, but so many times unmoderated message boards on the internet deteriorate into back and forth psychopathic rantings that I've come to accept that there is a point where a poster has to be given the boot. BL never remotely reached that point IMHO, Base? I don't think he did either, but it;'s a closer call, some of his posts (I haven't read all) were just getting unbelievably tasteless- like on the Cory Lidle threads...
   116. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:44 PM (#2249398)
but it means the Mets won't trade Milledge for some overrated starter

No it doesn't.
   117. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:46 PM (#2249404)
My foolhardy prediction is that Oliver Perez is the best starting pitcher for the 2007 Mets, slightly edging Maine.

Is that with/or without Zito?

I'd like the Mets to get Zito because with him and Glavine, you're almost guaranteed 400-420 innings with a combined ERA+ of 110-120. Zito would basically guarantee a playoff spot for the Mets.
   118. CrosbyBird Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:46 PM (#2249405)
Wow, I'm not the only one predicting Perez makes Minaya look very smart next year.
   119. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:47 PM (#2249407)

And welcome back Tommy. Not only does it improve our club, but it means the Mets won't trade Milledge for some overrated starter.


Well, not necessarily. The rotation Sam outlines in post 112 is very shaky, to put it mildly. You probably need another dependable starter to round it up.

The Base suspension is a travestyThey got the wrong guy


Yeah, no kidding. They really should've banned Jim Furtado. [/rolls eyes]

Base was merely asked to cool his jets. He wasn't forced to email insults to Furtado. If he's such a conceited prick that he doesn't realize how ridiculous he is, no one can blame Jim for kicking him out.
   120. Sam M. Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:48 PM (#2249409)
but it means the Mets won't trade Milledge for some overrated starter

No it doesn't.


True. They MIGHT still trade him, but the odds are reduced. They are under significantly less pressure to need to do so. Had Glavine left, Milledge might have been the only asset available to them to get the starter they needed (assuming you think Zito alone isn't all they need). Now, if they trade Milledge, I think we can be confident it is done from a position of choice, not panic/necessity/desperation.
   121. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:49 PM (#2249412)
some of his posts (I haven't read all) were just getting unbelievably tasteless

I thought he got banned not for his posts but for cursing at the guy who owns the site in an email. I guess the owner of a site has a right to do whatever he wants, but that seems wrong to me.
   122. I Love LA (OFF) Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:50 PM (#2249413)
How awesome would our playoff rotation be if

a) Pedro is back 100%
b) We get Zito
c) Glavine continues pulling the strings
d) Perez puts it together
e) Pelfrey wins the ROY.
   123. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:52 PM (#2249416)
a) Pedro is back 100%
b) We get Zito
c) Glavine continues pulling the strings
d) Perez puts it together
e) Pelfrey wins the ROY.


You know, if Pedro comes back to 100% (even if it's only low 90s and not mid 90s) - everything else there is gravy. He would have such a huge impact for us.
   124. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:53 PM (#2249417)
Sam, as always, you are correct. That's what I meant. Although I still would not be shocked to see something like Freddy Garcia for Milledge.
   125. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:54 PM (#2249420)
BTW, guys. I don't know how to use the keys, but we could really use a new Mets thread. This Alou thread has expired long long ago.
   126. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:56 PM (#2249421)
I wish I were as optimisitic about Perez as you guys are. Sure, there was some positive signs at the end of last year. 48/20 k/bb ratio in 48.1 IP with the Mets including playoffs and the guy still has stuff. That said, his combined ERA the last two seasons in over 6.00. It'd be a successful season if Perez puts up an ERA around 4.50. Perez's talent is so immense and his results so awful that any ERA between 3.50-5.50 wouldn't surprise me.

Honestly though, it makes no sense a guy with Perez's stuff isn't better. Trachsel had nothing last year and put up an ERA under 5.00.
   127. Sam M. Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:57 PM (#2249423)
I thought he got banned not for his posts but for cursing at the guy who owns the site in an email. I guess the owner of a site has a right to do whatever he wants, but that seems wrong to me.

In that exchange, Jim at first thought he was giving Base his second warning. He then went back over this correspondence, realized it was actually the third time, and that made it a 30-day suspension. It was after that that Base cursed at him.

Look. Rob was told repeatedly that he was making thread after thread unbearable. It was primarily the stuff with Levski (for which they both bear a tremendous share of blame for being petulant, stubborn children for WAY too long), but by no means exclusively. He would go out of his way to respond to stuff he disagreed with not by polite discourse, but by rants and name-calling towards those he thought were dumb. He did it to Gagne, he did it to BaseballChick, he did it to Dial, he did it to many others. When any of us he DID (sometimes) seem to respect would try to tell him he was being a jerk, he told us to butt out, or that we'd just have to tolerate him. There's no doubt that he would also have interesting and good things to add, when the mood struck him. But he was so hostile and rude and nasty when he was going that way -- and he was doing it so often -- that to me, it just affected the overall experience of being here. And he didn't seem to give a damn about how other people were affected by his conduct. And that is not being a responsible member of the community.

So to me, if Jim wants to give him another chance at some point, fine. I hope he'll be more the Rob Base who makes a positive contributiion and whom I liked, at times, having around to chat with. But if not, I just have to say, BTF will be more enjoyable without the "other" Rob Base, the one who just couldn't stop being rude and ugly, too much of the time.
   128. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2249424)
a) Pedro is back 100%
b) We get Zito
c) Glavine continues pulling the strings
d) Perez puts it together
e) Pelfrey wins the ROY.


I love the optimism, but the odds of all of those things happening is pushing 0%. Doesn't just about every team's rotation look great under a best case scenario.
   129. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2249425)
How awesome would our playoff rotation be if

a) Pedro is back 100%
b) We get Zito
c) Glavine continues pulling the strings
d) Perez puts it together
e) Pelfrey wins the ROY.


True, but how many other teams could say a similar thing?

e.g. the Red Sox get 200, 3.50 ERA innings from Papelbon, the same from Beckett, Matsuzaka is as good as advertised, Schilling maintains his value, and Wakefield stays healthy...

Regardless, getting Glavine back is huge for the Mets. No Glavine, then you're either forced to overpay for Zito or you're likely to miss the playoffs. Now, they'll at least be NL East favorites again, and as other have pointed out, could potentially make themselves overwhelming NL favorites if they add Zito.
   130. Raskolnikov Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2249426)
Excellent. Good work by Clifton, to make sure he didn't let this linger too long and leave the Mets no choice but to move forward during the winter meetings to replace Glavine via a trade. That would have left Glavine with nowhere to go but the Braves, and I am confident John Schuerholz would NOT have been kind. Professional, no doubt, but not kind

I really have to respect Glavine for making up his mind before the winter meetings. Chass's article in the NYT paints a picture of strong integrity for Glavine, and Chass said that Glavine would make up his mind today. When rumors popped up today that Glavine would take until next Friday to make up his mind, I thought "Thanks, Murray, for telling us what a fair guy Tommy is."

But Glaving made up his mind before the winter meetings, as he promised. And so now, I'm very happy to have him back on our side.
   131. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:58 PM (#2249429)
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/newsday_davidoff_mets_odds_on_zito_improve/

We could move the discussion here.
   132. AJMcCringleberry Posted: December 01, 2006 at 10:59 PM (#2249430)
Yay, Galvine's back!

It's funny though, you guys see Glavine signing and are hoping Zito signs too. I see Glavine signing and hoping that means they don't go crazy after Zito.
   133. Andere Richtingen Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:03 PM (#2249436)
I put up a new thread for youse guys. Who says I am not kindhearted to mets fans?
   134. Free Rob Base Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:10 PM (#2249443)
I did not like all of the stuff with Levski (which I thought was funny at times but I largely ignored). I did appreciate however that he was one of the few guys to stand up to the orthodoxy you see on the site sometimes. As such, I think his voice will be missed.
   135. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:12 PM (#2249447)
Orthodoxy you see on this site? Too many Jewish lawyers in one place for you?
   136. The Artist Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:12 PM (#2249448)
Hmm. Wonder what Glavine's resigning does to the Zito market. Is Schmidt more likely to leave SF for the Mets now (although everything says he's going to stick to the West Coast). ?
   137. 1k5v3L Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:14 PM (#2249453)
Artist, my guess is that the Mets acquire a starter via trade and stay out of the Zito/Schmidt sweepstakes.
   138. Sam M. Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:25 PM (#2249470)
Is Schmidt more likely to leave SF for the Mets now (although everything says he's going to stick to the West Coast). ?

Well, the word was that Schmidt flat-out told the Yankees "No" when they called to see if he was interested, saying he did not want to move to the East Coast. I don't think the Mets have shown the slightest interest, and I can't see that changing now. If Schmidt goes east, it won't be any farther east than Chicago. IF that far.

Artist, my guess is that the Mets acquire a starter via trade and stay out of the Zito/Schmidt sweepstakes.

They won't stay out of the Zito thing entirely. But Hicks controls this one, I think. If he decides to blow by the Oswalt contract, the Mets won't make it a bidding war too much beyond that. If it's within range of that -- somewhat beyond, but within range -- the Mets will be a player.
   139. JPWF13 Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:41 PM (#2249494)
Perez's talent is so immense and his results so awful that any ERA between 3.50-5.50 wouldn't surprise me.


any ERA between 3.00 and 6.50 wouldn't suprise me
any ERA below 3.00 or higher than 7.00 would be suprising but not shocking
   140. Rob Bass Posted: December 01, 2006 at 11:42 PM (#2249495)
I'll remember all you ######## who are talking #### about me.
   141. The Bones McCoy of THT Posted: December 02, 2006 at 12:05 AM (#2249522)
I'll remember all you ######## who are talking #### about me.


Somebody's talking pound keys about you?

Kiss my * (minus) terisk ;-)

Best Regards

John
   142. Van Lingle Mungo Jerry Posted: December 02, 2006 at 12:06 AM (#2249523)
I'll remember all you ######## who are talking #### about me.

If that really was Base, that single post gave me more pleasure to read than anything I've ever before read on this site. Enjoy your time-out.
   143. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: December 02, 2006 at 02:18 AM (#2249627)

141. Rob Bass Posted: December 01, 2006 at 05:42 PM (#2249495)

I'll remember all you ######## who are talking #### about me.


Best. Post. Ever.
   144. HowardMegdal Posted: December 02, 2006 at 02:28 AM (#2249636)
Listen, I don't want to make trouble. But has anyone seen Rob Base and Rob Bass in the same room at the same time?
   145. baudib Posted: December 02, 2006 at 09:01 AM (#2249908)
How is it that we ever got along in the days of no registration?

Where's the Admiral when you need him?
   146. shoewizard Posted: December 02, 2006 at 05:28 PM (#2250028)
I'd say something, but I'm afraid I'd get my ass kicked.
   147. The Keith Law Blog Blah Blah (battlekow) Posted: December 02, 2006 at 07:21 PM (#2250081)
How is \"########\" not censored?
   148. Steve Threadair Posted: December 03, 2006 at 05:40 AM (#2250424)
How is \"########\" not censored?

They decided to ban them instead.
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