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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Monday, December 12, 2005
Giants - Signed Morris
San Francisco Giants - Have reportedly signed P Matt Morris to a 3-year deal worth a guaranteed $27 million.
Overpriced, but the Giants were rapidly running out of options in the free agent market. As long as Barry’s on the Giants and healthy, it’s a good idea to overpay to fill holes - the NL West is a weak division and the Giants have just enough talent to win the division when they have Bonds. It would be unreasonable to expect Matt Morris to be better than average at this point, but the Giants probably aren’t expecting Morris to be anything than an overpaid #2 starter ahead of Lowry and Cain. The Giants’ success in 2006 will be determined by Barry’s attendance and performance. Morris is a finesse groundballer nowadays (he’s never striking 185 out again) and even though the Giants’ infield isn’t as good as the Cardinals’, you don’t particularly want a flyballer, even with an actual centerfielder going into the season. Bonds/Alou are not going to give many clincs at the corners.
Note to the Cardinals: This is not the best time to lose patience with Jason Marquis. Please hold off until you guys finally land a pitcher that you’re going after.
2006 ZiPS Projection - Matt Morris
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W L G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA
———————————————————————-
11 12 31 31 190 199 91 24 43 122 4.31
Dan Szymborski
Posted: December 12, 2005 at 08:08 PM | 40 comment(s)
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1. North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan Posted: December 12, 2005 at 08:48 PM (#1773917)With the ancient infielders straining their hammies to reach for dribblers, I think the hit total will be higher. And I think his ERA has a very good chance to exceeding the 4.5 mark. With Alou and Bonds engaging in territorial pissings at the corners (one using his hands, the other his whizzinator), Morris will give up plenty of cheap doubles.
At least he'll save Sabean from having to worry about signing another draft pick. My guess is Sabes will call up a random high schooler's name at #10 (Kyle Drabek?) than take a nap until the Giants are drafting again in the fourth. Unless he's retired for the day, and given his current intern a list of funny sounding last names to call into the phone.
He signed a cheapo one year deal so he can be with his buddy Tony Clark.
Since the Tigers made him rich, he could give AZ a hometown discount...
That seems to be the plan.
This signing fills a need for the Giants, but acquiring a guy like this to be a #2 behind Schmidt should have been something they did two or three years ago rather than have overpay for Rueter. Instead, the Giants will be overpaying a mediocre starter for next year (when their odds of competing are a little better than 50/50) as well as for two years when they probably don't have a prayer. Hopefully Sabean (or whoever the Giants' GM is then) will be able to flip him in the middle of 2007 or so for something that might help rebuild--assuming he hasn't lost all effectiveness or gotten himself seriously injured.
When the Giants do have to rebuild, it is going to be uuuuggggly given Sabean's love for the draft. Of course, they could just go all big-market and sign FAs, but when Bonds is gone and everyone else on the roster is 40, they will have nothing to trade and the only young players will suck. I am scared.
The rotation will be Schmidt, Morris, Lowry, Cain, and Hennessey/Correia taking turns on the Fresno shuttle. Neither of the last two are very good, and that goes for AAA too. Hennessey seems to strike out more guys, but he only has three pitches and should probably be a reliever. Hennessey could find some magic with another pitch, but that isn't likely. Both of them are cheap 5th starters though.
That could be a very good rotation. Schmidt and Morris are aces when healthy, though they have questionable health. According to Two Alous, Noah Lowry's career is on a positive ark and Matt Cain is an Abel pitcher. Hennesey is not very good, but not a liability either. The rotation depends on the health of Schmidt and Morris.
Yep. And their offense depends on the health of Bonds and Alou. If all four can stay healthy and as effective, then the Giants are likely the team to beat in the NL West. Unfortunately, I think that they'll likely suffer at least one injury and/or one or more will decline by quite a lot. The end result will probably be a 75-85 win team--and probably finishes 5-10 games out.
He's not been called on his errors by the press, so unless you know something I don't (probable!), I don't think so.
Sadly. :(
Wait, so are you saying that Cain will be exiled and branded an eternal wanderer for slaying his talent? I think maybe you have him confused with Bruce Chen.
Mulder--slightly below average
Suppan--average
Marquis--slightly below average
Reyes--probably slightly above average
I actually like the Giants' rotation almost as well, provided Schmidt stays healthy; I'd rather have Lowry and Cain than Suppan and Marquis, or even Suppan and Mulder.
Mulder--slightly below average
Suppan--average
Marquis--slightly below average
Reyes--probably slightly above average
Isn't average for starting pitchers worse than average for relievers?
I ask because Carpenter, Marquis, Mulder, and Suppan all beat 100 ERA+'s (with the exception of Marquis, by 17 or more). None of those 3 project to much below 110, if at all, just using 3 year weighted averages, and I'd consider 110 comfortably above average. The cardinals should have a very good pitching staff next year. I'd certainly trade the Red Sox staff for the Cardinals Staff at this point. The cards had a 123 ERA+ as a team last year. Houston (118) was the only team within 10 in the NL.
I think it's more likely that Reyes will be below average in '06. There's usually an adjustment period for rookie pitchers.
-- MWE
His 2005 G/F ratio wasn't that far removed from his career ratio (1.67), so it's not like there's been a transition of philsophies or anything like that. I think it's just a decline, accelerated by arm injury; his career trend in K/9 is certainly a bad omen for the Giants.
2001: 7.70
2002: 7.32
2003: 6.27
2004: 5.84
2005: 5.47
That seems to be the plan.
Other sources indicate the Giants are still looking for a cheap(-ish) proven #5.
This is a good signing. Morris should be a guy who can reliably take the ball 30+ times a year and get you to the 7th inning.
I have doubts that this will be his first losing campaign or his ERA as bad as these ZiPS sugggest.
I'm skeptical. His second half last season makes me think he was either pitching through an injury, or pitching with a fatigued shoulder. Neither would bode well for Morris over this contract.
While he might do well as a middle reliever, I really hope the Giants will let him start, even if it means he doesn't see the seventh inning all that often.
104.2 IP 96 H 6 HR 16 BB 73 K 3.69 RA
But in the second half...
88 IP 113 H 16 HR 21 BB 44 K 5.93 RA
I know splitting up the season in two halves is selecting arbitrary end points but if I'm a Giants fan I am worried I'm getting the Matt Morris of '04 and second half '05 and won't see much of the guy who earned the big contract.
He was fatigued. He had shoulder surgery a year ago then came back too soon. Morris will pitch his heart out, but he takes DK's "never miss a start" thing way too far.
Marquis's peripherals will be fine if he stops throwing that mother curveball.
I haven't analyzed it or anything (maybe I should sometime), but I can imagine that at the very least models with a high discount rate could yield that result.
Marquis is a clear 4 in that group, and I didn't cover him in my post. Rather, I meant the first sentence to separate Marquis from Carpenter/Suppan/Mulder. Mulder's K rate didn't drop any more than would be expected going from the AL to the NL. There's no more reason to worry about his 2006 than there was to worry about his 2005 or his 2004.
As for the Red Sox staff, well, their team ERA+ was 30 points below that of the Cards last year. While a good portion of that difference is defense, and the Red Sox staff has several pitchers likely to either improve dramatically (or collapse completely) next season. Much of the upside potential on the staff is offset by downside risk. I'd prefer the more risk-averse approach that the Cardinals take if I were running a team.
Exactly. When he started just throwing the fastball in August he stopped walking people, and turned into some weird version of Brad Radke or something.
I think Sabes is smart enough to know that this all blows up in his face in 2007. He's going to be looking for the exit.
There's an article over on Scout.com that was done about two years ago that took a look. It's actually a defensible strategy provided that you're clearly in a win-now mode.
Listen to Sabean talk sometime... the only numbers he runs are lottery numbers.
Right. What you say to the press is exactly how you operate. Just because that's the way Billy Beane rolls doesn't mean that how everyone does it.
Why would we have expected Mulder's K rate to drop going from the AL to the NL? NL pitchers strike out a lot more batters thanks to the pitchers batting and even when you take out the pitchers, NL batters struck out once every 5.5 at-bats in 2005, compared to 5.7 in the AL.
As for Sabean, I'm talking more about the sound of his voice and the turns of phrase he uses than the actual content of what he says; it was sort of a joke.
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