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Transaction Oracle
— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Giants - Siigned Phelps

San Franciso Giants - Signed 1B Josh Phelps to a minor-league contract.

Josh Phelps is a pretty good example of how important timing can be.  The Kevin Reimer/Dante Bichette trade cost the former and earned the latter millions of dollars.  David Ortiz might have ended up as a “poor defensive malcontent AAAA slugger” if Jeremy Giambi’s shoulder had been in better condition.

In Phelps’s case, he left the Indians before he could have replaced an injured Travis Hafner, the Rays before they decided to give a 1B shot to a solid non-roster invitee in Carlos Pena, played for the Yankees while Jason Giambi was healthy, and then played for a non-DH team with the best 1B in baseball.  The Giants are the best situation Phelps has been in for playing-time since he was in Toronto and sadly, he’s not the hitter he once was and the Giants have no business giving him a full-time job at 1st when they need to be looking at the younger options like Ishikawa.  Phelps, if he makes the team, will be a pinch-hitter, but he’s not particularly good at that role.

2009 ZiPS Projection - Josh Phelps (1B)
—————————————————————————————————————-
          AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   SO SB   BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009       403 47 110 22   2 16   58 35   93   1 .273 .339 .457 106  
—————————————————————————————————————-

(600 PA)

Offense %
STAR   16
AVG   42
REP LV 77

OPS+  %    OBP   %    3B     %    Hits   %
>160   0     >.400   2     >10   0     >200   0
>140   4     >.375   11     >5     12     >150   40
>120   24     >.350   34
>100   58     >.325   66     2B     %
>80   85     >.300   89     >45   5
>60   97               >30   57

BA     %    SLG   %    HR     %    SB     %
>.350   0     >.550   5     >50   0     >70   0
>.325   1     >.500   24     >40   0     >50   0
>.300   12     >.450   50     >30   19     >30   0
>.275   41     >.400   76     >20   57     >10   1
>.250   76     >.350   91     >10   85

Milestone       %
100th Career 2B   74
100th Career HR   3
500th Career Hit 96
—————————————————————————————————————-
Top Comps:  Dick Stuart, John Jaha

Dan Szymborski Posted: November 12, 2008 at 02:52 PM | 21 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
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   1. Repoz Posted: November 12, 2008 at 04:59 PM (#3007446)
I remember when Josh Phelps was part of the ESPN cover jinx...
   2. xanthan Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:01 PM (#3007509)
Thanks, Dan. I was hoping to see this projection. I think he'll make the team as a PH and maybe get the occasional start at 1B against LHP.
   3. JPWF13 Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:22 PM (#3007524)
and the Giants have no business giving him a full-time job at 1st when they need to be looking at the younger options like Ishikawa.


I'd read somewhere that they were leaning towards Pablo Sandoval at 1B
   4. xanthan Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:26 PM (#3007527)
Yeah, as of now, Pablo would probably start at 1B, unless they do something goofy and try to play him at 3B.
   5. Steve Treder Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:27 PM (#3007528)
I'd read somewhere that they were leaning towards Pablo Sandoval at 1B

That would be dumb, given that Sandoval can play both third base and catcher. Why waste that capacity by sticking him at 1B?

Of course, this is the Giants we're talking about. There is that.
   6. The District Attorney Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:29 PM (#3007529)
They shoulda siigned Biitner.
   7. xanthan Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:32 PM (#3007530)
That would be dumb, given that Sandoval can play both third base and catcher. Why waste that capacity by sticking him at 1B?


I think expecting him to play 3B might be a little optimistic. He played it some in the minors, but he's a pretty big guy and I can't see him playing 300-400 total innings at that position over a full season. He's at 1B right now to get his bat into the lineup, if Molina is traded, he should head back behind the plate to catch.
   8. zenbitz Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:46 PM (#3007541)
Yay, thanks Dan. I asked Dan to run this because it was just bizzaro that Sabean would sign Phelps. As for his stat line, I will point out that the above projection beats any "starting" Giants 1B SINCE 2004!

Ishikawa had a nice comeback year, but I am not sure he's turned the corner.

Unless Sandoval really hits .340 he's not going to hit well enough to play first, although I suppose he might out hit Phelps.
   9. Tracy Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:48 PM (#3007545)
This being the Giants, I thought this might be Ken Phelps.
   10. RJ in TO Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:51 PM (#3007547)
Hell, given some of the moves by the Giants over the years, I wouldn't have been surprised if it was Michael Phelps.
   11. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: November 12, 2008 at 06:54 PM (#3007550)
[9] How could the Giants trade Jay Buhner ...
   12. xanthan Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:00 PM (#3007555)
I will point out that the above projection beats any "starting" Giants 1B SINCE 2004!


Turns out Niekro, Sweeney, and Hillenbrand weren't the answers. Neither was the corpse of Ryan Klesko. Though, for whatever reason, I liked Klesko. /shrug
   13. The District Attorney Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:06 PM (#3007559)
He's at 1B right now to get his bat into the lineup, if Molina is traded, he should head back behind the plate to catch.
But what about Posey?
   14. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:12 PM (#3007564)
What are the Giants thinking? They've got former All-Star Rich Aurilia to play first. Problem solved.

Next thing you know, they're going to go out and sign a third baseman. Jeez.
   15. rfloh Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:25 PM (#3007574)
13. The District Attorney Posted: November 12, 2008 at 02:06 PM (#3007559)

He's at 1B right now to get his bat into the lineup, if Molina is traded, he should head back behind the plate to catch.

But what about Posey?


What about Posey?

He just got drafted.
   16. xanthan Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:26 PM (#3007575)
But what about Posey?


Posey should move fast in the minors, but I'm not sure I see him making it up in '09. Maybe you'll see him during a Sept. call-up or something. Sandoval's value plays best at catcher and the Giants should look to maximize it if they can.

If and when Posey gets to the majors, they can move Sandoval to 1B (which does diminish his value some) or try to trade him as an offensive-minded catcher.
   17. Steve Treder Posted: November 12, 2008 at 07:36 PM (#3007594)
Unless Sandoval really hits .340 he's not going to hit well enough to play first

That's my take. I see him as a fine hitter for a catcher or a third baseman, but not really for a first baseman. The fact that the Giants may not have a better-hitting first baseman isn't a reason to put Sandoval there, it's a reason to go find a genuine first baseman.
   18. Mark R. Garber Posted: November 12, 2008 at 10:53 PM (#3007815)
I like the probability table better than the optimistic and pessimistic lines.

I don't like that Signed is spelled Siigned.
   19. Jim Wisinski Posted: November 14, 2008 at 05:47 AM (#3008878)
Why not just have Brian Bocock play first?
   20. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: November 14, 2008 at 06:10 AM (#3008888)
I will point out that the above projection beats any "starting" Giants 1B SINCE 2004!

Heck, a 106 OPS+ might make him a favorite to be the Giants' best hitter next year.

The Giants should really look to trade Molina (if he's willing to waive his NTC) and start Sandoval at C until Posey is ready. Then trade Sandoval as he's starting to get both expensive and too big to stick behind the plate.
   21. Howie Menckel Posted: November 14, 2008 at 06:22 AM (#3008892)
The Sandoval caution is fair... but he has pounded the rock eveywhere, even with the Giants.

He may not jump the stats model, either, in 2009, but..

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