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Transaction Oracle— A Timely Look at Transactions as They Happen
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Giants - Siigned Phelps
San Franciso Giants - Signed 1B Josh Phelps to a minor-league contract.
Josh Phelps is a pretty good example of how important timing can be. The Kevin Reimer/Dante Bichette trade cost the former and earned the latter millions of dollars. David Ortiz might have ended up as a “poor defensive malcontent AAAA slugger” if Jeremy Giambi’s shoulder had been in better condition.
In Phelps’s case, he left the Indians before he could have replaced an injured Travis Hafner, the Rays before they decided to give a 1B shot to a solid non-roster invitee in Carlos Pena, played for the Yankees while Jason Giambi was healthy, and then played for a non-DH team with the best 1B in baseball. The Giants are the best situation Phelps has been in for playing-time since he was in Toronto and sadly, he’s not the hitter he once was and the Giants have no business giving him a full-time job at 1st when they need to be looking at the younger options like Ishikawa. Phelps, if he makes the team, will be a pinch-hitter, but he’s not particularly good at that role.
2009 ZiPS Projection - Josh Phelps (1B)
—————————————————————————————————————-
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+
—————————————————————————————————————-
2009 403 47 110 22 2 16 58 35 93 1 .273 .339 .457 106
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(600 PA)
Offense %
STAR 16
AVG 42
REP LV 77
OPS+ % OBP % 3B % Hits %
>160 0 >.400 2 >10 0 >200 0
>140 4 >.375 11 >5 12 >150 40
>120 24 >.350 34
>100 58 >.325 66 2B %
>80 85 >.300 89 >45 5
>60 97 >30 57
BA % SLG % HR % SB %
>.350 0 >.550 5 >50 0 >70 0
>.325 1 >.500 24 >40 0 >50 0
>.300 12 >.450 50 >30 19 >30 0
>.275 41 >.400 76 >20 57 >10 1
>.250 76 >.350 91 >10 85
Milestone %
100th Career 2B 74
100th Career HR 3
500th Career Hit 96
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Top Comps: Dick Stuart, John Jaha
Dan Szymborski
Posted: November 12, 2008 at 02:52 PM | 21 comment(s)
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1. RepozI'd read somewhere that they were leaning towards Pablo Sandoval at 1B
That would be dumb, given that Sandoval can play both third base and catcher. Why waste that capacity by sticking him at 1B?
Of course, this is the Giants we're talking about. There is that.
I think expecting him to play 3B might be a little optimistic. He played it some in the minors, but he's a pretty big guy and I can't see him playing 300-400 total innings at that position over a full season. He's at 1B right now to get his bat into the lineup, if Molina is traded, he should head back behind the plate to catch.
Ishikawa had a nice comeback year, but I am not sure he's turned the corner.
Unless Sandoval really hits .340 he's not going to hit well enough to play first, although I suppose he might out hit Phelps.
Turns out Niekro, Sweeney, and Hillenbrand weren't the answers. Neither was the corpse of Ryan Klesko. Though, for whatever reason, I liked Klesko. /shrug
Next thing you know, they're going to go out and sign a third baseman. Jeez.
What about Posey?
He just got drafted.
Posey should move fast in the minors, but I'm not sure I see him making it up in '09. Maybe you'll see him during a Sept. call-up or something. Sandoval's value plays best at catcher and the Giants should look to maximize it if they can.
If and when Posey gets to the majors, they can move Sandoval to 1B (which does diminish his value some) or try to trade him as an offensive-minded catcher.
That's my take. I see him as a fine hitter for a catcher or a third baseman, but not really for a first baseman. The fact that the Giants may not have a better-hitting first baseman isn't a reason to put Sandoval there, it's a reason to go find a genuine first baseman.
I don't like that Signed is spelled Siigned.
Heck, a 106 OPS+ might make him a favorite to be the Giants' best hitter next year.
The Giants should really look to trade Molina (if he's willing to waive his NTC) and start Sandoval at C until Posey is ready. Then trade Sandoval as he's starting to get both expensive and too big to stick behind the plate.
He may not jump the stats model, either, in 2009, but..
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